Nelson's Hooligans

Here’s finally a shot of the hecklers at the John C. Fremont Days parade.

We can just picture these two guys, sitting on the floor with a new bed sheet…magic markers at the ready…big plate of Smores by their side… working up their latest sign to heckle Ben Nelson about not paying his fair share of taxes (GOP: Nelson protested valuation in '85 – LJS – 7/28/06). Because these are just two good-government guys, and not a couple of Democratic Party sponsored Hooligans, right? Right?

3rd Dist. Odds

In our final installment (at this time) on odds for the Congressional races, we give you the wide open…

3rd District Odds

Adrian Smith (R) - State Senator
Scott Kleeb (D) – political newcomer

Smith 1:1

This is Smith's race to lose. He has the experience, the conservative issues and the (R) behind his name in the overwhelmingly GOP 3rd District. How (R) are they? Ask Tom Osborne, after he swayed to the center in the Governor's primary.

Kleeb 5:1

This is a long shot, but not impossible. While Republican, the 3rd is still usually competitive in open races. Kleeb has an o.k. resume, is raising decent money, and as every Democrat is dying to tell you, is soooooo good-lookin'. The fact that he was born and raised in Italy and only recently moved to Nebraska, apparently to run for Congress, will probably mean that he won't get over the hump. Nevertheless, we're still watching this race. If this gets close, don't be surprised if National Dems get much more interested.

Rubin ASSURED us...

Maybe Rubin thought Ben still lives in this house in McCook

"The crime here is that he paid $1.2 million for his home and then turned around and claimed it was worth only half. I can assure you, 24,000 other people in Nebraska are not doing the same," said Barry Rubin, executive director of the Nebraska Democratic Party (County Board denies Ricketts' property valuation protest – OWH - 7/21/06).

Well Barry, maybe 24,000 didn’t, but one sure did.

Ben Nelson paid $340,000 for his Regency mansion in 1984 and then turned around and claimed it was worth only $220,000, 65% of the price he paid, in 1985. (Republicans: Nelson fought valuations, too - OWH - 7/27/06)

Someone check to see if Ben Nelson’s Maryland attack dog, Barry Rubin, is foaming at the mouth.

Nelson's Tax Hat

(with thanks to the NDP for prepping this caricature)

Someone had to see this coming.

Guess who challenged the property tax assessment on his Regency mansion in 1985: That’s right, millionaire Ben Nelson!

It seems that in back in ’85, Nelson protested his property valuation after he’d bought the mansion the year before. After his protest, the final valuation was set even lower than what he asked.

So apparently the Ben Nelson – Barry Rubin – NDP theory was correct after all: When someone else’s taxes go down, someone else’s go up. And in this case, Pete took the hit for Ben’s decrease.
Well it’s good to see that the Ben Nelson and his Democrats are backing Ricketts on this. Right Ben? Ben?

2nd Dist. Odds

Continuing in our series of Congressional race odds-making, we give you...

2nd District Odds

Lee Terry, Jr. (R) - Incumbent
Jim Esch (D) – political newcomer

Terry 1:1

Pen Terry in for re-elect. He has never received less than 61% of the vote in three elections, and he has continued to keep a positive image in the District. The "Dean" of the Nebraska House delegation has moved up the ranks in seniority as well. He also should have enough cash to beat back any challenge that Jim Esch can present.

Esch 100:1

Esch seems to be having a good time in his MySpace campaign, and this race should provide him some face time in front of voters. He may have a decent chance segueing this campaign into another race for the Legislature, County Board or City Council. Congress was a bit of leap this time around. It will be interesting to see if Esch can avoid the political oblivion so many other Congressional challengers have faced.

As usual, Leavenworth Street does not endorse signing petitions to make these odds official in a theoretical Nebraska casino.

1st Dist. Odds

In our continuing quest to keeps things interesting across the political spectrum, here are Leavenworth Street’s odds for the upcoming Congressional races. Wednesday and Thursday we’ll bring you the 2nd and 3rd District odds. We will also update these odds as Election Day draws nearer.

1st District Odds

Jeff Fortenberry (R) -- Incumbent
Maxine Moul (D) -- former Lt Gov.

Fortenberry 2:1

The numbers are in his favor, but he's an unproven first term congressman. His campaign seems to be slow starting (maybe that's a good thing for the already campaign-weary public). Also, there is still some bitterness lingering from the primary last time around, which hurts party unity. Fort should win, but he’s no shoe-in.

Moul 4:1

Mad Maxine’s pro-choice advocacy will hurt her. But she has raised cash surprisingly well, and she’s well-known in the District. She could ride Senator Nelson’s coattails a bit, but if Nelson is blowing out Ricketts as Election Day nears, Dems won’t have any other great reasons to make it to the polls. This is an outside shot, but not out of the question. This isn’t a bad position for her at this point.

Congressional Odds!

You’ve seen the polls for the Governor and Senate races, so what’s happening in the House races?

Well, without the use of any polls, Leavenworth Street will be bringing you the odds on all three House races!

Check back later!

(As always, on-shore wagering in association with these numbers is not endorsed by Leavenworth Street.)

Nelson's Attack Dog

At what point is the Omaha World Herald going to stop interviewing the Nebraska Democrat spokesman, acting as if he’s a separate entity from the Ben Nelson campaign?

Barry Rubin, Executive Director of the Nebraska Democratic Party -- he formerly of the losing Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (yes, THAT Kennedy clan) for Governor campaign in Maryland -- has turned into the lead dirty trickster for Nelson. And at each turn, the Nelson camp washes its hands of the matter, and says, “Not us! That’s from the party!”

The student-council-campaign-esque Dr. Seuss ad in the OWH and the Hooligans sent to heckle Pete Ricketts at the John C. Fremont Days parade are the latest of Rubin’s dirty tricks.

So when the issue of the Dr. Seuss ad comes up, the OWH goes to Rubin who calls Ricketts’s property tax protest a “crime” (yes, a crime). (County Board denies Ricketts' property valuation protest – OWH – 7/21/06) (By the way, can we all note that the Omaha World Herald has also contested their valuation?)

When asked to denounce the Hooligans at the parade in Fremont, the Nelson camp claims they “had nothing to do with that,” and then follows up playing the “free speech” card (Hot Senate race sees blistering exchanges – OWH – 7/20/06).

Yet how surprising that “union guys” went to the extent to make a sign, purchase Cat in the Hat lids, and then when confronted directly by Pete Ricketts, reportedly had no idea about the facts behind the issue.

And why did a couple of guys go to all the trouble to draw attention to themselves, buy specialty hats and heckle a candidate at a family parade?

Because that’s East coast, Kennedy-style dirty tricks that Ben Nelson has imported to Nebraska to keep his seat. And that’s what you’re going to get when you take your family to a parade. And that, Nebraska, is the East Coast Democrat attack dog.

And make no mistake about it, Nelson is holding the leash.

Lissen Up Stoopid!

The Omaha World Herald is smart and intellectual.

You, however, are a dope who likes loud noises and shiny things.

That’s the lesson learned by the Omaha World Herald’s latest lecture on the congressional campaigns. (The need for substance; Nebraska voters deserve congressional campaigns that explore serious issues. – OWH – 7/21/06 )

You see, Dopey, the Senate is a very important place where important things are decided. And you shouldn’t be swayed by what the candidates want to discuss or what you think is important. (Say in a very serious voice…) The OWH will tell you what’s important.

For instance, Ben Nelson needs to “to talk about his core concerns as a member of the Senate and explain what he sees as ways to address long-term national concerns.”

Should Pete Ricketts do this as well? No, no, no, says your Uncle World Herald.

No, Pete needs to prove a negative. Pete needs to prove more than what his core beliefs in government are. Pete needs to prove he’s more than just a highly successful businessman. Pete needs to do more than run an effective campaign that defeated two much more experienced and well known other candidates. No, you see, Pete, according to Grampa World Herald, must prove that… he’s not a Ken Doll.

Ok, thanks, OWH. Just want to be clear that we’re talking about substance and serious things in a serious way. Because calling a candidate by the name of Barbie’s boyfriend really ups the political discourse, there.

Oh but wait, there’s more! Let’s talk about the House races!
Should we talk about a single (serious) issue that is at stake in any of these races? Noooooooooooooo.

Instead let’s talk, in each and every analysis, whether the candidate has enough money to be competitive. You see, money is obscene, and wildly expensive in the Senate race. But it’s pretty much the only issue in the House races.

Thanks for setting that up, OWH.
My what a service you’ve performed.

Ricketts (R) vs Nelson (R?)

Ricketts needs to pull out the real GOP big guns

In a poll also by Rasmussen, Ben Nelson has a solid lead over Pete Ricketts, 57% to 31%.

What’s really killing Ricketts however is a lowly 57% approval rating by GOP voters, where Nelson has a 79% approval rating with the Nebraska GOP.

To an extent this isn’t surprising coming out of a hotly contested primary where Ricketts won handily, but still only had 48% of the vote. That’s a big chunk of GOP voters who may still hold a grudge against the guy who beat their candidate. Don Stenberg’s call to Nebraska Right to Life on behalf of Pete Ricketts may begin part of the healing process. But Ricketts better know that he needs Kramer, Stenberg and any other GOP stalwart he can muster to show that the GOP is unified.

It waits to be seen whether he can persuade more of the GOP, and particularly Stenberg and Kramer to go on TV for him. It’s obvious that until he shores up the GOP base, he will have no shot against the incumbent.

Heineman Cruising

In the latest Rasmussen poll, Governor Dave Heineman 66% to 21% lead over his opponent David Hahn.

Heineman has a 74% favorable rating versus a 34% rating for Hahn as well. Hahn has an unfavorable rating of 39% and another 28% have no opinion of the guy. Many Nebraskans directly quoted Homer Simpson by stating, “I have no idea who that is.”

Heineman also has a 76% approval rating as Governor.

NRL Endorsement Back Story

In case you missed it, in today’s Lincoln Journal Star, Don Walton gives the back story on the Nebraska GOP stalwarts’ effort to get Nebraska Right to Life’s endorsement for Pete Ricketts (Tension marked Nelson endorsement – LJS – 7/18/06). Leavenworth Street’s position on this can be read below.

An interesting aspect in all of this is all the GOP sluggers that came to bat for Ricketts: Jeff Fortenberry, Kay Orr and Don Stenberg top the list. (And Stenberg’s call is one of the most intriguing, considering the bitter primary that he was a part of. Sure, there may be some self interest in this, but he made the call nonetheless.)

The LJS says, “others” called NRL. So who was asked to call, but didn’t? Was Dave Kramer part of that others? Chuck Hagel? Dave Heineman? Lee Terry? Hal Daub? Tom Osborne (who would have his own axe to grind against them)?

Did any of these calls make a difference? Probably not. It’s likely that Julie Schmit-Albin and the gang had their mind made up on the endorsement, and a collect call from Ronald Reagan wouldn’t have changed their minds.

Short-sighted NRL

Nebraska Right to Life must have decided that they were tired of giving their endorsement to everyone who took pro-life positions. Instead when an incumbent in a race is pro-life, then he or she gets the endorsement, no matter what position or voting history the challenger has.

NRL first did this in the governor’s race endorsing incumbent Governor Dave Heineman, to the pique of Rep. Tom Osborne who had a very strong pro-life voting record in the House. Now NRL has given their endorsement to Senator Earl Ben Nelson (Nelson receives sole endorsement by Nebraska Right to Life – OWH – 7/15/06). They’ve said this is a reward to Nelson for his support of Justices Alito and Roberts, etc.

Granted, Nelson has a pretty solid voting pro-life voting record in the Senate. Nonetheless, their endorsement is one of the more short-sighted positions they could have taken.

And Leavenworth is going to keep delivering this message until Nebraska conservatives and Republicans get it: Ben Nelson will support the Democrat majority in the Senate. It is not unlikely that he could be the difference in a 51-49 Democrat majority. If it doesn’t happen in the 2006 cycle, it very well could in 2008. And should the Dems take over the Senate there would not BE any votes on an Alito or a Roberts because they would not make it out of committee.

All of Nelson’s other positions take a back seat to the fact that he would support a Democrat controlled Senate. That’s why Democrats can stomach his candidacy and his positions that are almost diametrically opposed to their platform.

And that is the main reason that conservatives and Republicans and Pro-Lifers should oppose him.

Campaign Parade Pics v 2.0

We asked and received three more sets of parade pics from the main campaigns. While we’d point out that they’re not all from July 4th (as we requested), we’ll take ‘em nonetheless.

First are a couple from Adrian Smith in the 3rd District. First we’ve got Adrian in front of what appears to be the rolling campaign HQ. (Wall to wall carpet and a disco ball in the back of that baby, no doubt.) And since the other one his campaign sent in was fairly lame, we also add a shot of him in the Dick Cheney parade in GI. Because it’s always cool to be hanging around the Secret Service guys.



Next we have the Lee Terry campaign. First we have a shot from the JE George parade in the Dundee/Fairacres area. (The campaigner pictured there was obviously sucking on a lemon at the time.) Then we’ve got a shot of Lee with a particularly exuberant campaigner. (We’d also like to point out that Lee finally has his new campaign site up and running.)



Finally we have Jeff Fortenberry in Seward. Pretty good banner, and we always like the parade balloons. Jeff also sports the obligatory red shirt for the Nebraska campaigner. (Do all the candidates in Tennessee sport orange shirts?) We’d recommend the candidate walk behind the banner, but maybe that’s just us.



Thanks to all the campaigns that sent in photos!
And to those who didn’t? Oh, we’ll be back….

Stop Me If You Think You've Heard This One Before

We’re not accusing Don Walton, Jessica Moenning or Paul Johnson of ripping off Leavenworth Street’s summary of the Pete Ricketts campaign shake (Ricketts campaign shakeup signals Senate shootout – LJS – 7/14/06). We’re just saying that it’s an excellent summary of what we wrote three days ago.

Ricketts Campaign Shake

Our thoughts on the Ricketts campaign staff shake-up.

First off, those (Dems, or Nelson supporters, anyway) who have suggested that the Ricketts camp is desperate or is in disarray are obviously unfamiliar with campaigning. Ricketts just won a heated primary and is getting national attention as someone who has a shot of taking down a very popular Senator. But after a primary, you gear up for a different type of campaign, and you may head another direction. If this were October, we might question moves such as this. In July, it's not unusual, and frankly it’s the right time if you want to make moves.

In detail:

Campaign Manager, Pat Fiske: Pat obviously did a great job in the primary, against two better known opponents. Pat's only fault is that he's not from Nebraska, and probably not as keyed into the political landscape. Sometimes when you hit the general election you need to find someone who better knows the history of the state politics, and knows the local players etc. Ricketts will need to keep the Republican Party base in tact to beat Nelson. He recognized they needed a Nebraskan with political experience. Jessica Moenning, former Nebraska GOP Executive Director, and Jeff Fortenberry campaign manager fits it perfectly. She's tied in with the state party, the Governor and the Hagel camps, who will be essential for Ricketts in the general.

Fundraiser, Melissa Ekberg: We don't know the entire story on this staffer, but suffice it to say that she had an uphill battle trying to raise money for a candidate who is perceived as self-funding his campaign. The Ricketts camp may have realized this and decided to start with another fundraising group. This isn't unheard of and funders are very often from outside the campaign. Nonetheless, it's unlikely that Ricketts will be short on cash for the race.

Communications, Trisha Meuret: We have it on good authority that Ms. Meuret truly left on good terms with the campaign, and has even been recently at the campaign HQ helping the staff to transition. We hope the Ricketts camp will be able to function well without someone with her experience, but again, Jessica Moenning has a great deal of experience working with the Nebraska press.

With that, we look forward to hearing more from all the campaigns.

Stop the thinking... the OWH will do it for you

When people enter the booth on Election Day, they look at a candidate’s party ID. This is by far the biggest indicator for most voters on whom they should pick. This doesn’t mean that these voters are mindless partisan hacks that don't think about their candidates or their issues. It is that they have looked at our two party system, and determined that one suits their political philosophy the best. And when a candidate chooses a party, for better or worse, they are associated with the positions that party espouses.

This is a good thing. If you’re a Democrat, and you generally believe in the things that party stands for, you should generally be comfortable with the candidate that came out of that party’s primary system. And you should generally feel comfortable that that candidate is going to vote the way you feel. He or she is probably going to veer at times, but you accept that.

Well, the Omaha World Herald Editorial Board thinks you’re a dope (Questions for the Senate race – OWH – 7/9/06).

Party affiliation? You’re a sheep.
Majority party in the Senate? Who cares, as long as you get a new bridge.
“Key” issues? The OWH will tell you what the key issues are. And they aren’t the ones that Pete Ricketts is talking about, Bub!

The World Herald’s nauseating faux populism is as honest as Madonna’s English accent. This editorial is condescending and arrogant, and insults their readers. Let’s face it: John Gottschalk and the boys know Ben Nelson, like him and want him keep his job. They’ve met (relatively) young Pete Ricketts and don’t like him. End of story. (Do you remember who the OWH endorsed for GOP Senate Primary? Hint: not Petey.)

So when they want you to think Ben Nelson is a “conservative”, they’ll ask you to ignore the fact that his conservative voting rating is 53% versus Chuck Hagel’s 86%.

They’ll ask you to ignore the fact that if the Senate turns Democrat, Ben Nelson would vote to have Hillary and Kennedy and the rest of the bugaboos decide each and every vote that makes it to the Senate floor.

Many voters think their party ID is an important consideration when they step in the booth. The OWH does not.

And with the case of Ben Nelson (D) they're going to keep telling you that.

Parade Pics!

In our ever expanding effort to keep you informed and entertained, we asked the major Nebraska campaigns (minus the petition drives and Johnny Rodgers) to send us pics from their July 4th parades. Well a .300 average will get you into the Hall of Fame, so we’ll take it.

Probably the defining element of all these photos is that each campaign (notably all challengers) had a great volunteer contingent marching with them.

Coming in from the 1st District race we have Maxine Moul in Seward. Good numbers in the entry. However, Maxine needs to separate herself from everyone, probably walk in front, otherwise she kind of blends in with the supporters.



Next in the 2nd District race we have Jim Esch in Ralston. You’ll note Jim has left the jeans and tennies behind and now sports the standard campaign uniform of khakis and a button down. It’s not real clear exactly why he has an Evel Knievel impersonator marching with him, but we suppose it makes it interesting. Jim also poses behind (“next to” would have been better) some sort of “big oil” prop with his supporters.



Finally Pete Ricketts marches with a strong gang as well. We like the yard signs jammed one on top of the other on the poll -- lets people down the street see something coming. Also good job with the balloons. In many ways, handing out balloons is better than handing out stickers – better visibility.



Thanks to the campaigns who sent in pics, and we’ll even give those who dissed us a second chance next week.

And they complain about Ricketts spending millions...

Ah, not even a bike path over the Missouri in sight, and already the City of Omaha has blown three meeeeellion dollars, becuase their architectural firm came in over budget. (City wants bridge money back – OWH – 7/7/06).

And who was writing the contract with this architectural firm? If keeping the price at $22M was so important, why wasn’t it in the agreement? It’ll be real interesting to see the results of Bill Lamson’s lawsuit here. (And even if the City gets a $3M judgment, you’ve still got Lamson’s fees that will subtract from it.)

So swell Mayor Landow, I mean Fahey. Now this “free” bridge has already cost us and we can’t even ride our bikes over it so that we can get to the casinos from our vantage point at the Qwest Center. (Since that’s such a frequent biking point…)

And since we’re on the subject, I love the views that we’re presented of this magnificent structure. They’re either from immediately next to it, or from some impossible view. So this “symbol of the city” will have to be viewed either:

1) right underneath it



2) from Council Bluffs side of the river, apparently on one of the actual bluffs

;

or 3) from the top of the First National Building. Greeeeaaaat…



Also from Leavenworth Street:
The REAL Bridge to No Where
Separated at Birth - Bridge to Nowhere!

"Nervous" Nellie?

The Olde School press event at the local Sinclair station

If the national GOP wants to feel positive about Pete Ricketts’s chances in November, they have only to look at Earl Ben Nelson’s actions in the past week:

1) An attack ad on Ricketts
2) An email to his “supporters” telling them Ricketts is negative because he has suggested that the Senate could turn Democrat
3) A gimmick “press conference” at Ted’s Sinclair in Omaha.
(Nelson, Ricketts throw a few firecrackers - LJS - 7/3/06)

Earl campaign, beside the fact that you’re basing this latest free media goofiness off a throw-away line about Ricketts supporting a consumption tax, is this where you’re going, this early?

Marching in Seward doesn’t have the umph you desired, huh? Handing out stickers at Memorial Park wasn’t good enough for you? You really think this is going to stick?

I guess it’s official: these are desperate times for Earl’s camp.

(By the way, looking forward to your sound trucks rolling up and down Leavenworth Street in the near future. Love the old school politicking…)

Oh yeah, the Governor race...

For the ten of you still following the Governor’s race, Don Walton has (of course) an excellent analysis of the latest issue and puts it in its historical context.
(Don Walton: Once upon a time in 1998 – LJS – 7/3/06)

And just for the heck of it, here’s a little Governor candidates Separated at Birth for ya…

Dave Heineman and Barney Rubble


and

David Hahn and Paulie Walnuts

Senate Campaign "News"

July 3rd. For those of us that have to work today...Is it Monday? Is it Friday? I don't know, but here's a random sighting from a few weeks ago posted on Wonkette.com...

Yesterday [6/19] morning I was at Omaha’s Eppley Airfield for a 6 AM flight to D.C. when I noticed the GOP’s latest self-funded darling and senatorial candidate, Pete Ricketts. Within moments, there was a Ben Nelson sighting. Seeing as there are only two direct flights from Omaha to D.C., both of which are flown using the same airplane, it was not that surprising to see the two Senate candidates on the same flight. The part that makes this sighting noteworthy is that the Benator’s seat was directly behind Pete’s! As far as I could tell, and I was sitting only three rows away, the two did not say a single word to each other. It’s ironic that they could not find something to discuss as they agree on about 70% of the issues.