Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Ricketts (R) vs Nelson (R?)

Ricketts needs to pull out the real GOP big guns

In a poll also by Rasmussen, Ben Nelson has a solid lead over Pete Ricketts, 57% to 31%.

What’s really killing Ricketts however is a lowly 57% approval rating by GOP voters, where Nelson has a 79% approval rating with the Nebraska GOP.

To an extent this isn’t surprising coming out of a hotly contested primary where Ricketts won handily, but still only had 48% of the vote. That’s a big chunk of GOP voters who may still hold a grudge against the guy who beat their candidate. Don Stenberg’s call to Nebraska Right to Life on behalf of Pete Ricketts may begin part of the healing process. But Ricketts better know that he needs Kramer, Stenberg and any other GOP stalwart he can muster to show that the GOP is unified.

It waits to be seen whether he can persuade more of the GOP, and particularly Stenberg and Kramer to go on TV for him. It’s obvious that until he shores up the GOP base, he will have no shot against the incumbent.


Anonymous said...

You are so right. There is way too much division within the R's right now and it's working to E. Benjamin's advantage without him even trying. Elephants of Nebraska Unite!

nepolwatcher said...

Wow SS -
you seem almost depressed. what you forgot to point out is that SENATOR NELSON is opening up more of a lead since the last poll in June. the Primary was over 30 days before THAT poll.
The most significant number in the poll is the Ricketts disapproval rating of 50% - that's devestating. And it will take more that $5 million to reverse. Pete is in deep doo doo. And he doesnt have the advantages HAgel (presidential election) and Stenberg (presidential election and three state wide wins) going for him.
Hopefully, he saves that $6K in poperty taxes. It might be all he has left after trying to beat Nelson.

Street Sweeper said...

Thanks for your concern about my state of well being there polwatcher, but my emotions don’t rise and fall with the polls.

"Deep doo doo"? Eloquent.

Daily Bulldog said...

polwatcher, are you saying Hagel benefitted from the '96 presidential election when he crushed Bennie? I've not heard a single person attribute Hagel's victory to the '96 presidential election, but THC "expands the boundaries of your mind", as the song goes.

Anonymous said...

For the history buffs, Nelson lost in '96 more than Hagel won if you recall the tracking polls from September thru election night. Rarely has a politican snatched such a defeat from the jaws of victory as did Nelson. That was due mostly to campaign problems in the Nelson camp. So camparisons are rather meaningless this round.

Daily Bulldog said...

I've also never heard anyone take away from the Hagel '96 victory. Hagel was/is a better candidate, ran a better campaign and cleaned the clock of a guy who welched on his commmittment to serve two terms as governor. Simple as that....2000 saw Bennie squeak by against a lack-luster candidate, so it's easy to see why Bennie "runs scared".

nepolwatcher said...

Well guys - you all cant have it both ways. Everyone points to Bush's 66% in NE in 04 as a reason Ricketts can win. In 2000, Bush's margin in NE was the biggest in the country and the ONLY reason Stenberg got so close. And in 1996 there were many factors - including the quality of the Hagel campaign, the disaster of a campaign Nelson ran, Nelson's pledge to stay in office and -no denying it -Clinton on the ticket that drove up GOP voter participation.

Its a fact.

Let me thank you SS and DB for the personal insults. It had been a while and I thought you guys were getting soft as Ricketts' message.

Street Sweeper said...

No personal insults coming from here on this post, though I reserve the right to toss one out at any time.

Daily Bulldog said...

polwatcher, if you send me your address I'll send the pink kleenexes you so need for your whining about personal insults.

What kind of grassroots/GOTV effort did Bush-Cheney put into NE in 2000? Probably none. Face it....Bennie has to run scared in a Red State, and this time is no different. In '96 Hagel was just a better candidate, period...war hero, self-made wealth, etc. Bennie welched and this stuck with him until 2000. It's likely not an issue now, but you never know.

poli.savant said...

Did anyone see Washington Journal on Sunday morning? Chuck Todd and Jennifer Duffy discused the Nebraska Senate race. According to these two beltway insiders it isn't looking good for Mr. Ricketts. Wasn't Sen. Nelson ahead in July '96 against Hagel? This will be an interesting race to experience and see how it shakes out.

Daily Bulldog said...

Out in DC, the last poll shown in the National Journal's Congress Daily showed Nelson 44, Hagel 44 and Undecided 9. This poll was published on the Friday before Election Day in 1996. Of all polls made public in DC, that was the only one that had shown Hagel pulling even and not a single one showed him with a lead. To folks out there, it was a complete, 90,000 vote surprise. Bennie will run scared, as well he should. I know Pete isn't Hagel, but compare the NE State GOP in 1995 versus now....big turnaround.