Separated at Birth - the Senate Race

And a Separated at Birth to leave you with for the Memorial Day weekend.

Pete Ricketts and Pope Benedict XVI


and

Earl Ben Nelson and a Loaf of Bread

Nelson & Ricketts on the web

MSNBC's Tom Curry did a full story on the Nelson-Ricketts race recently. The usual stuff, but it's very complete. Here's the link:
The money strategy in Nebraska's senate race - MSNBC.com - 5/24/06.

N'Awlins Nelson?

While the Democratic National Committee and Howard Dean have raged at Matt Drudge today for accusing them of taking sides in the New Orleans Mayoral race (accusing them of supporting Lt Gov Mitch Landrieu over Mayor Ray Nagin) there’s one line that hasn’t been retracted from Drudge’s story:

Preliminary campaign finance reports indicate many of Landrieu’s contributions came from out of state white Democrat leaders and financiers, including a $1,000 contribution from Sen. Ben Nelson's (D-NE) PAC. (Sources: Democratic National Committee Worked To Defeat Nagin; DNC Says 'No Way' -- The Drudge Report – 5/22/06).

So Leavenworth Street wonders this: What on Earth was Earl B. Nelson doing sticking his nose in a battle between two Louisiana Democrats? Is Earl a Big Easy fan? A frequent visitor? Doing a thousand dollar favor for Mary Landrieu's boy? A Cajun cookin’ fan? What’s the back story here?

Primary Wrap-Up

For those of you down on Leavenworth Street who don't read the Lincoln Journal Star every day, here's a fantastic wrap-up from last week of the major races, candidates and politicos in Nebraska, by the LJS's Don Walton. Don's The Man. It's too bad the OWH doesn't have a political columnist like him. We're re-printing the article in its entirety, or you can click here to read it from the LJS site:

Don Walton: Heineman win impacts Hagel, Ricketts
by Don Walton, Lincoln Journal Star

Big victory for Dave Heineman. And he wasn’t the only one who won.

Heineman’s Republican gubernatorial triumph was good for Pete Ricketts and Chuck Hagel.

And for the Nebraska Republican establishment, or so it is deeply believed.

Hagel had placed his leadership prestige on the line by supporting the governor over Tom Osborne.

Although Heineman won this one on his own — with the help of a superb campaign managed by Carlos Castillo — his victory kept Hagel’s coattails intact in Nebraska.

It also means Hagel didn’t lose a race on his home court to his buddy, colleague and potential 2008 rival, John McCain, who endorsed Osborne.

Now, Hagel no longer faces the uncomfortable possibility that his home state governor might endorse McCain for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination even if Hagel entered the race.

On Wednesday, Hagel acknowledged his endorsement created a level of “tension” in his relationship with Osborne. No doubt about that, it shows.

This is highly speculative, and we’ll never know, but it seems likely that a Governor Osborne might have worked more closely in Washington with Ben Nelson, a Democrat, than with Hagel, assuming Nelson is re-elected this November.

And how about Ricketts in his bid to unseat Nelson?

He’s likely to receive more time and attention and assistance from Heineman than he might have from Osborne on the campaign trail this autumn. Heineman’s more of a partisan, more of a party guy.

Which brings us to the GOP establishment.

Clearly on Heineman’s side in the gubernatorial primary race, most party insiders and interest groups aligned with the GOP will breathe more easily now.

Osborne is not an insider, not a party devotee, not as partisan, too independent for GOP insiders and activists who put a premium on party. Many of the interest groups, denied an opportunity to even contribute money to the Osborne campaign, also worried about that independent nature.

When Osborne promised his governorship would “not be politics as usual,” those were not comforting words to everyone.

Heineman was, is and will be a party enthusiast, who could be expected to use the governorship to help build the GOP in the same way that Jim Exon strengthened the Democratic Party during his eight-year tenure in the State Capitol.

Location of Heineman’s Lincoln campaign operation next door to Republican state headquarters spoke volumes symbolically, even though the GOP and the governor’s campaign functioned behind separate doors.

So, whose fortunes dip with Osborne’s loss?

Kate Witek, his running mate.

Jon Bruning, who found himself on the losing side. But Bruning, at age 37 and with his eyes on higher office in the future, is in position to build his own record as attorney general and has plenty of time to recover any lost ground.

Now, a word about Tom Osborne.

“I thought I had a pretty good level of trust in the state,” he said in a telephone interview shortly before midnight, an hour after he knew he had lost.

“But I wasn’t the guy they wanted to lead the state.”

What hurt, Osborne said, was to lose in rural areas “where I thought I had strength.”

And to lose there, he said, after working six years in Congress to bring farm programs, drought relief, rural health care assistance, rural education assistance, water resource funding, veterans assistance, broadband Internet development, resources to battle methamphetamine and more to western and central Nebraska.

He went to Washington where he could have coasted, but worked hard for his district.

It’s a cruel business.

Tom Osborne will recover and find another way to serve.

Certainly through his youth mentoring program.

Perhaps with a program to battle meth, or tackle youth drugs and underage drinking, or protect children who are suffering and dying.

Perhaps the high-rollers in Omaha who supported him would like to fund a foundation to support his good works.

This is a guy who was the greatest college football coach of his time — and if you consider what he accomplished, and where he did it, I think you can make a case for greatest coach of all time. An average of 10 victories a season for 25 years straight, with never fewer than nine, are you kidding?

Add six years of performance as a member of Congress.

Something tells me there’s more to come.

Lee Terry: Representin' the 2nd

On Comedy Central's Colbert Report, Steven Colbert continues his edition of “Better Know a District”, with Nebraska’s 2nd District. In that feature, he interviewed the 2nd’s own Lee Terry, Jr.

You can take a look at the interview at Comedy Central here, and you can get KPTM’s synopsis and Lee’s thoughts on it as well, here.



Among other things, they discussed delivering hot meat to the Japanese as well as Lee’s alleged Nazi leanings. I’m not making that up.

Lee didn’t look like a complete dope, as Colbert makes many look. But he did seem a bit dull. Right on point? They report, you decide…

Give Me Liberty or Give Me...Trish

Trish Lanphier displays her qualifications for the Clerk of the District Court job

Douglas County Clerk Of The District Court
Trish Lanphier. . . . . . . . . 3,514 -- 42.08%
Tom Barrett. . . . . . . . . . . 2,928 -- 35.07%
Barbara A. Carpenter. . . .1,879 -- 22.50%

We apparently missed something here on Leavenworth Street. We must have missed the massive door to door, personal campaign, with Ricketts-level advertising and Heineman level moxie, that Trish Lanphier ran. This FIRED (and now, re-hired) county employee with pretty much NO experience demolished (1) a vastly more experienced person and (2) a guy with personality and at least a freaking law degree (for a legal-type job).

Please, please PLEASE don’t tell me, you 3,514 Democrats, that you went into the booth and used your Constitutionally granted right to vote to fill in the oval for Trish because you read the stories about her getting fired. Pleeeeeease don’t tell me you did it because you hate that Julie Haney and want to get back at her with your vote.

But I can’t think of any realistic reasons you would have voted for her, other than: you thought Barb Carpenter and her twenty-five-freaking-years of experience in the office made her a poor candidate (for some reason); or you’re related to Trish Lanphier.

Because otherwise, you Douglas County Democrat, you’re telling me that Patrick Henry died at the hands of the hated British, just so you could go vote for someone because you heard her name once on Channels 3, 6 or 7.

So hopefully Barb Carpenter will still be there when either Lanphier or John Friend shows up, so she can tell them where they keep the paper clips.

And thankfully Tom Barrett lost. Because Tom, you’re better than this county position. If you want to run for something, rev up your legal career and run for a real political job, and make it a real race. Heck, I like to think you could beat a Shane Osborn (who Republicans found qualified for the State Treasuer job because he landed a plane in China…).

Or Tom, you could go the Trish Lanphier-route: Get yourself fired from your job right before the election. Democrats seem to go for those types…

Worth 1,000 Words

It's not real clear when this photo was taken, but how about this shot from the Lincoln Journal Star? Does that say it all, or what?

**Update** - This photo apparently comes from the GOP "Unity" gathering in Lincoln on Wednesday. See: There's no gloating or sour grapes over upset - OWH - 5/11/06

Republicans Vote Republican

Why did Republicans vote for Dave Heineman over Tom Osborne? Because they wanted to vote with someone with an (R) after his name, instead of an (I).

Tom Osborne ran as an Independent. He sought endorsements from well-known Democrats (and prochoice advocates) such as Warren Buffett. His campaign actively sought registered Democrats to switch parties.

He didn’t take a Republican position on the illegal immigrant / in-state tuition issue. He didn’t seek the endorsement of the NRA. He initially didn’t take any position on the Omaha school issue – offering to carry water back and forth as a mediator. Then when he did pick a side, it was the one championed by local and national Democrats.

During his years as the 3^rd District Congressman, voters thought they knew who he was. He was coach Tom, Republican, Man of Integrity. But during the campaign, they found out that he was Tom the Independent, who was now willing to go negative ham-handedly on his opponent. He broke Ronald Reagan’s law of Say-No-Evil-of-Republicans.

Republicans still like Tom the Coach. They want to remember Tom the Coach. But Republicans didn’t want Tom the Independent.

Tom Osborne forgot that he was running in the Republican Primary, and not the General Election. General Election voters may have gone his way on that platform.

Republican voters wanted to vote for a Republican.

(And Leavenworth Street stands corrected.)

Ben Nelson is Worried

Does the man in this hat look comfortable?

Earl “Ben” Nelson is scared of Pete Ricketts.

Earl has been going around to business groups spouting the line that “Pete Ricketts was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple.” (Forget for a moment that Ricketts had a middle-class upbringing and has had a successful business career.) Instead note that the last person who used that line, against a political neophyte with a successful father, was Ann Richards, former Governor of Texas, who went on to lose her office to a guy called “W”.

Earl has been stealing lines from Republicans too. On election night he stole David Kramer’s line about Ricketts spending in Washington like he did in his campaign – hardy-har-har (Ricketts Wins Senate Nom – KETV – 5/9/06). So he really IS bipartisan.

Earl also claims that this is a battle of “Main St. vs. Wall St.” (In Nelson-Ricketts race, it’s ‘Main Street vs. Wall Street’ - LJS- 5/9/06) [Hey, way to use that Nelson hit line in your headline LJS. Nice balance and all. Very professional]. But funny, last time I checked, Earl lives on Fieldcrest Drive in Regency, not Main Street.

And Earl has been bringing in the big guns for his election – bringing in a Senator crony for a pre-election outing in Omaha. Except that Earl didn’t HAVE a primary opponent.

So let’s sum up:

Earl rips Ricketts with old Dem attack line.

Earl rips Ricketts with old GOP attack line.

Earl rips Ricketts with see-through populist pap.

Earl brings in Washington emissaries when he’s not even challenged.

Seems like someone is just a littttttttle worried. Worried – scared. Take your pick. And if Earl is this scared, just a few hours into the General Election campaign, that can only mean one thing:

Pete Ricketts can beat Earl Ben Nelson.

Adrian Smith = GOP

Maybe George McGovern isn't the guy Scott Kleeb should feature on his website in the 3rd District...

Adrian Smith was the anti-Tom Osborne. At least the Tom Osborne that ran for Governor.

Smith courted Republican voters. He sought endorsements from all the right GOP groups. He touted his conservative credentials in his ads. He left no doubt as to whom GOP voters should support.

He ran a meat and potatoes GOP campaign against two others who has similar credentials. And now he will take Osborne’s seat.

(And while we originally thought Scott Kleeb (D) had a shot, we found this photo on Kleeb’s website. Nice knowin’ ya, Scott.)

click...click...click...click...

Laughing all the way to the Gov's mansion?
Hey Chuck! Richard Pryor wants his suit back!

For your Election Day perusal:

Tuesday’s weather forecasts across Nebraska (courtesy of The Weather Channel):

Omaha: 77° – party cloudy (glass half-empty)

Lincoln: 71° – partly sunny (glass half-full)

Grand Island: 73° – partly cloudy (glass half-empty)

Scottsbluff: 60° – 30% chance of isolated t-storms (broken glass)

Cherry County: 62° and…Oh forget about Cherry County. There may as well be a blizzard there. They didn’t bother getting them enough voting machines (Voting rule change could cause long drive for some – OWH – 5/8/06).

And on that weather note, the National Journal’s Hotline On Call has an interesting theory – the reverse rain effect in Western Nebraska: if there are thunderstorms, farmers won’t be in the fields and will be more likely to come into town to vote. (They give this a bump for Heineman, but Leavenworth Street denizens know that we give that edge for Osborne.) Anywho, click here for more on their Nebraska preview: (There’s No Place Like Your Home Congressional District – Hotline On Call – 5/8/06).

Of course, the must-read for any Nebraska politico is Don Walton of the LJS, and this Election Day is no exception (Don Walton: Who's David and who's Goliath? - LJS - 5/9/06). One thing we might add to Don's insight on Establishment Endorsements is that Chuck Hagel's early endorsement of Heineman came when Osborne was vacillating about whether or not to even run. DH decided not to wait for TO's decision, and Hagel followed when he was tired of waiting for TO as well.

An ESPN article about the former Nebraska coach’s chances, and possibly blowing a huge lead. Ivan Maisel apparently followed T.O. around for a bit (Osborne sets sights on Nebraska state house – ESPN.com – 5/8/06).

A big ol’ story about the Senate race in Congressional Quarterly (NE Senate: ‘Outsider’ Ricketts Holds Edge in GOP Primary – CQPolitics.com – 5/8/06).

And finally, for those of you sick of the elections, but still craving “political” news, I give you…Nixon’s sandwich.

Carpenter may Win. Or Barrett. One of 'em. Probably.

Well, as promised, Leavenworth Street is going to pick the winner of the battle of the Douglas County Courthouse: the Clerk of the District Court (Democrat primary).

Because we have earnestly investigated the candidates, their platforms, and…and..

Ok, we looked at their websites, and that’s pretty much all we’re basing it on. Well there was also an OWH article on it (ohhhh yeah, it pays $83K per year. Noooooow we see the reason for the competition).

So there’s Barb Carpenter who has spent twenty-five (!) years in the office, and the past six as the chief deputy. Now why someone doesn’t just give her the job, I don’t know. (Frankly, why this is an elected position, I don’t know. Shouldn’t the judges just appoint someone? But I digress…) But I’ll say this about Barb’s experience: she told me NOTHING about it on her website. Nada. Zilch. So how can I depend on her to file my Demurrer correctly, if she can’t even give me a HINT of what she’s been doing for the past twenty-five years?

Then there’s Tom Barrett. Tom is a lawyer for the State Fire Marshall’s office. He’s been cracking down on fire-crackers for the past number of years now. He’s also a life-long denizen of Leavenworth Street, so he’s got that going for him. Why he wants this job, I do not know. His sister Mary ran for one of these county plum jobs a few years ago on essentially Tom’s same platform and tanked. Now she’s apparently put together his website. A website that prominently features Tom’s triathlon competitions. Yet, under “Office Responsibilities” it states (the day before the election) “Coming Soon!” Exactly…

And finally there’s Trish Lanphier. Trish, apparently from her tag-line, is RUNNING on the fact that she got fired by nutty Julie Haney. (And we use the term “nutty” only in the most endearing fashion, as we really don’t want one of those nasty-grams Julie so efficiently doles out to Public Pulse writers…) Another reason to vote for Trish is that she’s “been in the news”. Honest to gosh. Trish, maybe if you rob the Barleycorn you’ll get enough press to run for County Assessor!

So, we have to pick a winner here. Again, if the world was a just and fair place, Barb Carpenter, the one with all the experience would win. But the fact that the only Democrats who will vote will be the ones who switched parties, the Dem voters for this primary will be few and far between. Therefore, we think Barrett has a decent shot – on name recognition alone (note our Barleycorn reference above) and because of some of his photos with Earl B. Nelson and Mike Fahey.

But we think and the world is generally just and fair, and we’re giving the nod to Carpenter. But Barrett could just as well pull it out. We frankly have no idea. Do you? If so, please add your comments already. We're waiting.

Clerk of the Dist Ct. candidates - Separated at Birth?

Before we give the final pick of our primary election season, we'd like to introduce you to the candidates in our last race, Seprated at Birth style, of course:
Democratic Primary for Douglas County Clerk of the District Court

Current Deputy Clerk, Barb Carpenter
and
a willow tree


Attorney/Triathlete, Tom Barrett
and
Rosie Ruiz (of cheating Boston Marathon fame)



and
(Former) County Treasurer employee / Embezzlement sympathy card-writer / Julie Haney-fireee, Trish Lanphier
and
an injunction filed by Hallmark™ for infringing on their trademark

**Update, 1:22 pm, 5/8/06**

Because Enquiring Minds want to know: No, we're not calling Barrett a cheater. Rosie Ruiz is the only marathoner we could think of and the juxtapostion with Barrett is funny. And no, that's not a real injunction from Hallmark. Not yet, anyway. Come on people!

**2nd Update, 1:28 pm , 5/8/06**

Oh, and also, Barb Carpenter's hair isn't really a willow tree (as far as we know).

Final Tracking Polls

Final tracking polls from The MSR Group.



In the Gov’s race, still a statistical dead heat (though the Heineman lead grows slightly).
At this point it’s all about getting out your vote.
As we pointed out here, our prediction for Osborne is based on the "unlikely to vote" coming out to vote on Election Day, and leaning towards Osborne, basically on pure name recognition.



In the Senate race, Stenberg’s bump from the other day seems to have faded.
Still, the undecided numbers are still very high for this point. Considering that so many will be pulled to the polls for the Governor’s race, just about anything can happen. However, with the solid lead he has now, and with the massive name recognition he’s developed, we expect Ricketts’s numbers to go up with the tide, and we stick with our prediction of Ricketts being over 50%.

Osborne will Win

You probably can't see him, but that's Tom Osborne standing there

This is the story about a national championship coaching legend, three-term congressman, and the symbol that is all of Nebraska: humbleness, hard work and integrity. This is also the story of how this legend can blow a 40 point lead to a non-elected, party loyal, sitting governor.

Who would have thought six months ago this race would be too close to call. Not us...(well, our prediction was two months ago) We thought the race would tighten, but that ultimately TO would win handily given his lofty status in Nebraska.

Well something happened on the way to the coronation. We didn’t realize what an inept campaigner Tom Osborne really is, and what a great staff Heineman, the consummate political pro, would hire. And the pro went right to his base: party loyalists. He hit them with the issues that matter: pro-life pro-business, free trade. He showed a mastery of the issues. Heineman pushed the immigration issue hard – as we suggested he would and should, way back in March as well. Of course Heineman has to run on his record and he has taken a beating on that as well.

That beating came at the hands of the gentlemanly coach who promised to only run a positive campaign. From the start of the debates, Osborne was taking shots at Heineman. His delivery is such that no one ever saw them coming, but Dr. Tom could throw a dart as deftly as anyone. Until, of course, the ham-handed negative push-poll calls and Osborne’s non-apology over the whole thing, which we summarized here. (And we’re still waiting for the Heineman camp to come out with their demand that Osborne call everyone back and apologize. What’s the status on that anyway? Or is Dave or Carlos just going make a statement on Monday for effect? That would be our suggestion – considering the polling bump that the whole thing caused.) If anything can put Heineman over the top, it’s having Coach/Dr. Tom being knocked off his pedestal of honesty and integrity. Many see this as just campaigning, but others know there’s reason to second guess him.

On Tuesday though, the fact that Heineman has made this race so competitive will be his undoing. With the dead-heatedness of this race, it’s gathering more and more attention. Those “unlikely” voters will become likely voters if they think their vote can make a difference. And the voter who only comes out for this big one, is most likely to side with the guy he’s known (or at least thinks he has known) for the past thirty some years. We’ll also go out on a limb and say that those Dems who are switching parties for a day aren’t doing it to support Governor Dave. Whether it’s the school issue or just because they want to be involved, those thousands will be primarily Osborne people. And finally, Dave Nabity's attacks on Heineman, to the extent they're covered, can only help Osborne.

Heineman has done well in office and has run a heckuva campaign. Unfortunately, he got stuck going up against the King of Nebraska.

Osborne will win this race.

Go below or click here for Leavenworth Street’s call for the GOP US Senate primary.

Go below or click here for Leavenworth Street’s call for the GOP 3rd Congressional District primary.

Come back on Monday (or possibly Sunday) for our prediction on at least one other race (frequent readers know which one we’re talking about…)

Feliz Cinco de Mayo!
(or for the anti-immigration folks, Happy May 5th….)

Smith will Win

Smith, seen here advocating adding color to the all-silver Nebraska quarter

Leavenworth Street doesn't extend to the 3rd Distrtict (yet), but we've been following this race nonetheless. For the first time in eight years, voters in the 3rd District have to choose someone beside the Ol Coach and the open seat has brought on three legitimate Republican candidates vying for the nomination. Who are these guys? Oh right: David Letterman, Chris Penn and the Fisher Price kid. A/k/a: Jay Vavricek, John Hanson and Adrian Smith.

Early on, the odds appeared to be with Vavricek. He has the money (personal wealth) and a base consisting of the largest city in the third. But Vav's campaign never seemed to catch on. He hasn't spent the big bucks for media, and in a district of this size, getting your name out to all corners takes spending more than just a few.

John Hanson comes in with strong credentials, great knowledge of the District, and connections with the powerbrokers of the third district -- all courtesy of his time spent as Tom Osborne's Ag guy. That alone gives him credibility. We've heard he's knowledgeable on the issues, which gives him even more credibility. But he's lacked the aggressive campaign and fundraising needed to win this race.

Adrian Smith has raised the money and run a good, aggressive campaign. Also, as a State Senator, he has the legislative cred that will lead people to believe that he can do the same in Washington. People know who he is, and he has clearly brandished his conservative credentials. He is a hit among social conservatives (and they vote in the primaries). The only thing holding Adrian back is his youth, and that he focuses too much on the social conservative issues, at times alienating the farm and business vote.

Adrian is our pick to win this tight race, with Hanson as the dark horse. His established name ID will carry him to victory on Tuesday. (However, if/when Adrian does pull it out, there's a chance we could be looking at an interesting General election battle…)

Come back to Leavenworth Street in an hour when we will tell you who will win the GOP Governor's primary.

Ricketts will Win

Pete poses for his inclusion on the Nebraska quarter

This is the least troubling of the races to pick, though lately it’s gotten tighter. But at the start, few (well, except Leavenworth Street) picked Pete Ricketts to be ahead at this point. The conventional wisdom was that good old Don Stenberg was going to coast to victory on his nearly 100% name recognition and past performance. Heck, that was even the Donster’s game-plan, shown by his refusal to debate Ricketts or David Kramer, under the sham of “positive campaigning”. Finally, a week before the election Don has decided to campaign.

But a funny thing happened on the way to Tuesday: 1) People were found to be tired of Don, his losing streak and bland platitudes; 2) They wanted to go with someone who can actually beat Earl Ben Nelson in November; and 3) Pete spent a gob of money getting his name and message out there. Well, not a gob. More like Four Million gobs. But while everyone keeps hitting on that, they should remember a couple of other Nebraskans who also spent a few million gobs: George Grogan and John Breslow. Yet neither won their party primary (Grogan didn’t even get 5% of the vote).

So it goes to show that you have to have something other than money to win. At this point, Pete has shown that he has that something else, and people are willing to follow him.

And David Kramer also got the blunt message that you DO have to have money to deliver your message. Generally those who listened to DK liked his message. Problem is, you can only talk to so many people at coffee shops. Unfortunately, he picked the wrong race. I would not count him out in the future.

Pete Ricketts will win on Tuesday (surprise, surprise).
And he will get over 50% (actual surprise).

(Come back in an hour when Leavenworth Street will pick the 3rd District Congressional primary.)

Tracking Poll Vaults

Friday’s tracking poll numbers from Omaha’s The MSR Group:
Gov’s Race
Heineman: 44 %
Osborne: 43%
Nabity: 6%
Undecided: 7%

Osborne bounces back. Heineman may have gotten a bounce out of the negative press for Osborne because of his negative push polls. In this season, that may be quickly forgotten. At this point, everything is neck and neck (consider there’s a 4.4% margin of error). While each side’s GOTV will be important, a couple wild cards will be the Dems who switched parties and all those who are Unlikely to vote, but came to the polls anyway in this tight election.

Senate Race
Ricketts: 40%
Stenberg: 30%
Kramer: 14%
Undecided: 16%

Stenberg’s numbers have finally bumped up as well. This should give his campaign a needed jolt for the weekend finale. The conventional wisdom was that these numbers would turn upward for Stenberg and Kramer at this point, because of voters finally paying attention and an increase in their ad buys. There are still quite a few Undecideds, and it’s fairly unknown how those and the GOPers for a day will come down in this one (or whether they’ll make much of a difference). Also remember that Nebraska has a sizable number of registered Independents who can vote in this race (though not in the Gov’s race), though the guess here is that they won’t affect this race much.

And don't forget to come back to Leavenworth Street today, when we pick the WINNERS of all the major races. (We'll post the first at 11am, the second at noon and the biggie at 1pm (all CDT)). Don't wait, don't be late!

Leavenworth Street Picks the Winners!

On Friday, May 5, Cinco de Mayo,
Leavenworth Street will...
PICK THE WINNERS
of the major races.

Don't miss it.

Tracking an Upset?

Today’s tracking poll numbers from The MSR Group out of Omaha:

Gov’s Race
Heineman: 45%
Osborne: 41%
Nabity: 7%
Undecided: 7%

And awaaaaaay we go! Heineman takes the lead. Note the huge jump in Heineman’s numbers for the past two nights. MSR notes that in Wednesday night's calling, just over half of those questioned indicated they're voting for Heineman (those numbers are then combined with Monday and Tuesday night's polling to give the total). Could this be a result of the Osborne negative push polls that he was forced to retract? Also note that the the Undecideds have dropped by 2%. People are making up their minds...

Senate Race
Ricketts: 45%
Stenberg: 28%
Kramer: 12%
Undecided: 15%

Now that they're on TV, one would think that Stenberg and Kramer's numbers would take a jump. Can Kramer pull enough of the Undecideds to give him a respectable showing?

Fishing Poll

The MSR Group is continuing their nightly tracking of the Gov’s and Senate races.
Their poll numbers are an average of the last three nights’ poll numbers.
To get a full view, one must take the three nights as a whole.
So for 3 nights, Sunday – Tuesday, the averages look like this:

Osborne: 44%
Heineman: 41%
Nabity: 6%
Undecided: 9%

However…
Their numbers last night, of 167 people, had exactly the same number of people siding with Osborne as with Heineman. (And how will the news of Osborne’s negative campaigning affect things?) Looks like this race is all on the backs of those 9%.

The Senate race has stayed pretty much the same:

Ricketts: 45%
Stenberg: 29%
Kramer: 11%
Undecided: 16%

It should be interesting to see how David Kramer conducts himself in this final week while people are finally paying attention. Figuring that he has no shot in this race, how will he position himself for the future? Omaha Mayor’s race? Congress if Lee Terry ever decided to bow out? Sit back and wait for a future (long ways away) Gov or Senate run?

MSR will have their tracking updated tomorrow, and we will publish it here on Leavenworth Street.

Whatever it takes - Part II

We’ve been saying it all along: Tom Osborne will do whatever it takes to win.

If it means negative sideswipes, like the questionable Cuban beans comment, he’ll do it.

If it means misrepresenting the Farm Bureau’s endorsement of Dave Heineman, he’ll do it.

If it means pulling in a major name, who has no connection to Nebraska (Hastert, McCain, Switzer!), he’ll do it.

Now: negative push poll calls. (Osborne halts phone polls – LJS – 5/2/06), (Osborne apologizes for ads - OWH – 5/2/06), (Osborne orders telephone polls stopped - GII - 5/2/06).

We’ve pointed out here before the existence of the push poll: It sounds like a poll, but it’s really an advocacy call. Pete Ricketts was doing these, but was only using positive points about himself – he’s pro life, he’s a businessman, etc.

But Osborne’s push poll calls were directly negative of Heineman. And not only were they negative, they were misleading. “Did you know Heineman has done nothing about high gasoline prices?” “Did you know Heineman has nothing on his web site about illegal immigration?” Are you kidding me? Why not just accuse his wife of being a “practicing thespian” and his son of being a “homo sapien”?

And while these are bad enough, let’s look at how Osborne is weaseling out of responsibility:

First, he says he didn’t approve all the scripts and didn’t know they were going out. Well, so that means he did approve of the negative push poll calls themselves, and maybe he didn’t approve the specific scripts, though I doubt that.
Second, he says he apologizes to ““those who received the calls if they found them offensive or negative.” The classic non-apology apology! We’ve heard every athlete give this one! “I apologize if you were offended when I spouted the racial slur.” How about, I apologize for DOING IT. Not, “if you were offended”. So if I wasn’t offended, you don’t apologize?

He then says, that he thought other campaigns were doing it, and that he had gotten a push poll call from someone else. So that makes it OK? And you thought it happened? Did it or didn’t it? You’re a professional politician. Did it happen or didn’t it. And what does this have to do with your calls anyway? Why bring it up?

Next, when his campaign manager was asked, he DEFENDED the practice anyway! Saying, “The purpose of the survey was to confirm support for the congressman’s campaign and to help draw distinctions that could help voters decide.” Well duh. Thanks for the info there chief.

Finally, Osborne says he’s sorry, and the buck stops with him and he called Heineman to apologize and bladdah bladdah bladdah. When asked if he’s calling all those THOUSANDS of people back to take it all back: he’d take that under consideration. Yeah, uh huh. We’ll see if he makes good on that in the next five days. The damage has been done. It can’t be undone.

**Update 5/3/06, 2:36 pm**
Here is a well written editorial from Ed Howard at the Statepaper on this subject: (Osborne 'Mea culpa: Sorry about the low blow, Dave!' - Nebraska StatePaper - 5/3/06.

Poll Position

The latest of the polls comes to us from Omaha’s The MSR Group:
(502 likely voters; equal number from each Cong. Dist.; margin of error 4.4%)

Gov’s Race
Osborne: 44%
Heineman: 39%
Nabity: 8%
Undecided: 9%

Still pretty much a dead heat. What’s VERY notable here is that in the 3rd Congressional District – Tom Osborne’s Congressional District – the numbers look like this:
Osborne: 41%
Heineman: 40%
Nabity: 8%
Undecided: 11%

Senate Race
Ricketts: 46%
Stenberg: 27%
Kramer: 9%
Undecided: 18%

Other than the fact that Ricketts is blowing everyone out, I suppose it’s notable that Dave Kramer is getting beat by undecided. Maybe that OWH endorsement will get him over the hump…

Whatever it takes

Who won't TO take an endorsement from?

Back in ‘84 Orange Bowl, Tom Osborne’s Nebraska football team- one of the greatest in history – with the Triplets – decided to trade jerseys on a number of players to confuse Miami. The team with Rozier, Gill and Fryer, tried for an edge with a gimmick like switching names and numbers. In other words, Osborne was willing to try anything to win. (And don’t even get me started about LP in the ’96 Fiesta Bowl…)

Well, here we are twenty-two years later, and TO is doing it again. A close race has turned into a dead heat. Now Osborne isn’t exactly known as a party guy -- he’s asking Democrats to cross over and vote for him. Nebraska’s senior US Senator endorses his opponent. He rarely makes an effort to help out fellow Republicans. Hal Daub, he ain’t. Yet who makes a trip in for him? House Speaker Denny Hastert, the second most partisan (behind Tom Delay) Republican in the country (Big money, names in bid for governor – OWH – 5/2/06). And one wonders what Hastert gained out of the trip?

And another kicker: Osborne is contributing a quarter of a million dollars to himself (Osborne helps fuel his own campaign – LJS – 5/2/06). With all the talk about Pete Ricketts spending on himself, it would be interesting to see how TO’s donation per his net-worth compares to Ricketts. (I wonder if I should hold my breath for that story…)

No, Tom Osborne hasn’t been afraid to go negative. He’s not afraid to spend the money. And he’ll bring in whoever can help him. He will try anything and do whatever it takes. What else can we expect this week? The sky’s the limit…

McCain nods to Osborne

Because many of you may only read the OWH, we point out that the Lincoln Journal Star has the news that none other than US Senator John McCain will be endorsing Tom Osborne for Governor (McCain plans to endorse Osborne – LJS – 5/1/06).

As the LJS astutely notes, McCain’s buddy US Senator Chuck Hagel has endorsed Dave Heineman. Is this a quid-pro-quo for a Presidential endorsement, as Don Walton suggests? Will Heineman now trot Hagel back out to remind Nebraska voters? And who else may Heineman have up his endorsement sleeve?

OWH Endorses David Nelson...I mean Kramer

On Saturday, the Omaha World Herald announced its US Senate endorsement for….David Kramer! (What Nebraska deserves – OWH – 4/29/06). Their reasoning was sound, and Dave’s obviously a good candidate.

Only problem: he has no chance of winning. As a matter of fact, he is unlikely to finish in the top two for his party’s nomination. Think the OWH missed that? Don’t believe it.

Get a load of this line in their endorsement of Kramer:

Ben Nelson will likely be a very tough candidate for Republicans to beat this fall - for obvious reasons. Nelson has extensive experience and a formidable record. He demonstrates leadership. And he isn't shallow.

I’m sorry, who was this endorsement for again? Oh yeah, Kramer.
Right…

Campaign ∞

In this final week of primaries, for those of you who are already tired of campaigning, note from 2nd Dist Congressman Lee Terry's website (above), just how long the campaign REALLY lasts.
(We'll assume this will be changed post-haste...)