Friday, May 05, 2006

Tracking Poll Vaults

Friday’s tracking poll numbers from Omaha’s The MSR Group:
Gov’s Race
Heineman: 44 %
Osborne: 43%
Nabity: 6%
Undecided: 7%

Osborne bounces back. Heineman may have gotten a bounce out of the negative press for Osborne because of his negative push polls. In this season, that may be quickly forgotten. At this point, everything is neck and neck (consider there’s a 4.4% margin of error). While each side’s GOTV will be important, a couple wild cards will be the Dems who switched parties and all those who are Unlikely to vote, but came to the polls anyway in this tight election.

Senate Race
Ricketts: 40%
Stenberg: 30%
Kramer: 14%
Undecided: 16%

Stenberg’s numbers have finally bumped up as well. This should give his campaign a needed jolt for the weekend finale. The conventional wisdom was that these numbers would turn upward for Stenberg and Kramer at this point, because of voters finally paying attention and an increase in their ad buys. There are still quite a few Undecideds, and it’s fairly unknown how those and the GOPers for a day will come down in this one (or whether they’ll make much of a difference). Also remember that Nebraska has a sizable number of registered Independents who can vote in this race (though not in the Gov’s race), though the guess here is that they won’t affect this race much.

And don't forget to come back to Leavenworth Street today, when we pick the WINNERS of all the major races. (We'll post the first at 11am, the second at noon and the biggie at 1pm (all CDT)). Don't wait, don't be late!

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