See You Later, Hal Daub…

…as opposed to “good bye”.

Hal wrapped up his statement today quoting a gray-haired football coach: “Don’t close the locker-room door on me yet. I still have a few good games left in me.”

While some still believe that the leaked NRSC “poll” forced Daub’s decision, his earlier statements and his vehement charge about the accuracy of the poll (“bogus”), leads us to believe he was being honest when talking about the money. (And also, he said six months ago that he didn't think Johanns would run, which affected his decisions.)

Consider that he spent his own cash on: His 93 county tour; a plane to fly across the state on his announcement tour; a media assistant; website design and website; TV and radio ad production; TV and radio ad time (at least $30,000); print materials; and probably a bunch of other stuff we’re missing.

That ain’t chump change for someone who’s not independently wealthy.

So what does this all mean for the rest of the field?

The road from New York to DC via Nebraska just got rockier for Bob Kerrey (if you believe Daub's exit will make it smoother for Mike Johanns). Kerrey, who’s been playing footsy with the idea of running is thankfully going to make his decision soon. Depending on whom you read, Kerrey is “excited” about running, but it’s probably no, unless it’s yes.

He’s talking to farmers and ranchers, calling Don Walton and emailing Steve Brown and thinks Nebraskans should “worry” about the withdrawal of Chuck Hagel. (At least we think he means Hagel. It would make more sense if he meant Daub, but Daub served four terms. Larry Craig?)

So with Kerrey, the rest will just have to wait until the other Hsu drops.

And Dems, Mike Fahey is, for all intents and purposes, out. He ain’t gonna do it. So are you willing to support Earl B. Nelson’s BFF Tony Toni Tone Raimondo? Or will you just amp yourself up for the Mr. and Mrs. Kleeb campaign? (And you know the former Jane Fleming is just dying to show the cornhusking rubes what a real campaign is all about.)

And here’s a final question for the GOP faithful: Does Daub’s farewell fare better for Mike Johanns or Jon Bruning?

Some say it will help to clear the field for Johanns to jog in with fewer dogs nipping at his ankles. Others think Bruning can now focus on Johanns and avoid the Daub distraction. (And if you’re convinced that it helps Pat Flynn, well then be prepared for the volley of jokes that follow on the boards.)

Have a great weekend and say a prayer of redemption for the Blackshirts.

Daub: I don’t want to make another concession speech

Four term Congressman and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub made it clear this morning: If he can’t win, he doesn’t want to be in.

As he put it, "I don't want to make another concession speech."

Daub stepped up to the podium at the Omaha Press Club and spelled out what he thinks a qualified candidate needs in order to run:
1) passion for public service
2) the time to commit to a campaign – to travel the state and learn from your consituents
3) the money to compete – yours and others.

Daub admitted that he couldn’t raise the money to compete in the (ostensibly) three-way primary. Being very blunt, he stated that in order to raise the real money you need in a campaign, you have to do it in the Omaha metro. With particularly Mike Johanns (who he didn't think would get in the race) sucking it all in, he couldn’t mount a campaign that could compete.

Daub stated that he believed he could compete through January, but by February or March his money would dry up. He then made the bold statement that if one primary candidate outspends the other by a million dollars, that candidate will win.

So what about the recent National Republican Senatorial Committee poll showing Johanns at 58%, Jon Bruning at 16% and Daub at 12%?

“That NRSC poll was bogus.”

Daub went on to elaborate that he spent nearly $28,000 (of his own money) on a benchmark survey which showed him very competitive, particularly against Bruning, and that Johanns numbers were nowhere near those in the leaked NRSC poll.

Daub stated that the science of the campaign – polling crosstabs and the like – showed that he could be competitive, but that his third tenet of a successful campaign could not be reached. And if he couldn't win, he wasn't going to stay in just to bloody up the eventual Republican nominee for the general election battle.

Daub said he will be returning to contributors ALL the money that has been rasied by his campaign, and which has been sitting in a trust fund.

He stated that he will be voting for Mike Johanns in the primary – though he didn’t consider that an endorsement. He said he felt that Bruning is deserving of compliments for his determination and organization.

Finally, showing emotion, Daub said of his decision to quit:

"It was a damned hard decision – the Senate has been a long time goal and dream. I believe I would have made a difference in the Senate."

Leavenworth Street will provide more analysis later.

Say it ain't so, Hal!

We could speculate on the reasons for Hal Daub's expected departure from the Nebraska U.S. Senate race, but instead we'll wait for his 9AM (Central) press conference.

A couple initial reactions from the comment boards here on Leavenworth Street:

"This is sad..."

"I have to agree...this is sad..."

And even over at one of the lefty blogs:

"I never thought I would say it, but it is sad to see Hal leave so quickly."

To give everyone something to chew on until the presser (assuming the assumptions are true), how do you think Hal would have affected or contributed to the Senate race?

The Phantom Poll

In the Wednesday evening Lincoln Journal Star, columnist Don Walton slipped in a doozy pertaining to his meeting with probable U.S. Senate candidate Mike Johanns. It went like this:

Although Johanns didn’t mention it, he had to be buoyed by the results of a GOP Senate primary poll taken in Nebraska last week by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (“NRSC”).

The results: Johanns, 58 percent; Attorney General Jon Bruning, 16 percent; former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub, 12 percent.

Bruning earlier released results of a poll commissioned by his campaign showing him trailing Johanns by nine points with neither candidate cracking 40 percent.

(Johanns ready to launch campaign – LJS – 9/26/07.)

Leavenworth Street has since learned, from various sources, more information about this. Namely:

• Don Walton hasn’t actually seen the poll;


• The “poll data” came to Don Walton via three Nebraska Republicans, two of whom are Johanns supporters;


• The NRSC is saying that they have “no intention of leaking or releasing any possible polling data from Nebraska.”

Now.

You can imagine that there are certain candidates and their campaigns who believe that this poll was made up out of whole cloth to show a much different picture of the current favorites. Others note that they don’t care about polls, and Dave Heineman didn’t care about them last year either.

Leavenworth Street is fairly confident, based on discussions with its sources, that it was an actual poll conducted by the NRSC.

As was reported in the OWH and other places, last week NRSC head John Ensign made calls to Rep. Lee Terry and Governor Dave Heineman to see if Jon Bruning and Hal Daub would clear the way for a favored candidacy of Mike Johanns.

Just about anyone who knows Bruning or Daub knows that wasn’t going to happen.

Nonetheless, apparently the NRSC polled to try to convince the other candidates that their attempt to resist the Johanns juggernaut was futile. Now to achieve that goal, their poll would have to be convincing, right? Some argue that to achieve numbers like they’ve quoted for Johanns, the poll had to have been pushed, and pushed heavily.

So there are some numbers out there. Who has access to them? Who knows? But they were “leaked” by someone, and it is just possible that Sen. Ensign and the NRSC haven’t given up on the idea of the Johanns juggernaut just yet.

In any case, you can’t really blame some Johanns supporters for leaking this poll information to assist their candidate. But of course, if the NRSC doesn’t release any information about it, or even acknowledge its existence, how will we ever know if the poll is accurate?

Does this smell fishy?

We’ll wait three days get further info.
And as most people know, at the end of three days, fish starts to stink.

Johanns WAY AHEAD in poll

The Lincoln Journal Star's Don Walton is reporting that the National Republican Senatorial Committee conducted a poll in Nebraska last week with the following results:

Nebraska Republican Senate Primary

Mike Johanns 58%
Jon Bruning 16%
Hal Daub 12%

Yowza.
No other info about the poll at this time. And when you read the story, it was practically a throw away line by Walton.

We'll be following up with more analysis very soon.

Commercial Daub Hal First The

Many of the national blogs are pointing out that the Hal Daub for U.S. Senate campaign has gone up with its first ad. It’s apparently a $30,000 statewide buy, and is entitled “Broken”. You can view it right here.



So upon viewing a few times, something was bothering us. We noticed that the last image of Daub seemed to be…backwards. It was as if we were looking at Hal in the mirror while he was standing right next to us.

So, with a little assistance from our pal Photoshop, we took a look at the first head shot image (Pic 1) and then compared it with the last head shot image (Pic 2), and then flipped it (Pic 3).

(click on image for larger version)

And sure enough! They inverted the image on the final part!

Now the way we see it, Daub should either get a free edit from his media company, or was this…intentional?

The theme is that "we need a change."
So is the change "An Inverted Hal Daub"?

A Hal Daub who listens instead of talks, is mellow instead of intense, who…parts his hair on the right instead of the left?

We don’t know, but if that’s what they were going for…man, that’s subtle.

(So beyond all that, what do YOU think of the ad? Not the timing of it, or even of the candidate. What do you think of the ad itself? Let's hear it, politicos...)

Choosing Sides

During these early days of the U.S. Senate campaign, we can already see things shaping up. Hal Daub has a new website (thank gawd) with his TV ad and is running the first radio spots of the season. (In it, he does a parody of “Old McDonald” and is seen shooting animated turkeys. Just kidding!)

Jon Bruning has shifted his sites from Hagel and Iraq to Johanns and immigration. And Pat Flynn still has us confounded as to how the “In God We Trust” will rub off the edge of the dollar coins.

And as we move along, people are picking their teams. Here are a few things we’ve learned over the weekend:

Team Johanns

Chuck Hagel has stated he’s picking Mike Johanns in the general election (with the “shock” being that this would be over his buddy Bob Kerrey). Jon Bruning has determined that this means Hagel is picking Johanns in the primary as well. Which is probably true, but Hagel hasn’t come out and said that.

And while party leader (and President) George W. Bush said he’d pick Johanns if Nebraskans do as well, former STATE party leader, and 2006 Senate candidate, David Kramer is now the “unofficial” spokesman for Mike Johanns. We wonder if Mike will get a word in edgewise.

Team Raimondo

A loyal Leavenworth Street reader and Husker-Ball St. ticket holder, saw E. Benjamin Nelson at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, and who was sitting right beside him, hoping that everyone saw him sitting with the Just for Men Senator? One Tony Raimondo.

Now we would venture that if you’re planning to make a run in the GOP primary, hoping to get your mug on Husker Vision sitting next to the state’s leading Democrat probably isn’t the way to go. So if Cosmic Bob is out, whose sideline will Raimondo chose?

Team Kerrey

We still don’t know what the tea-leaves say about New York’s favorite University President, but we see where the Omaha World Herald stands on him. When he decided to make a foray into Nebraska from his home in New York City over the weekend, the headlines looked like this:

Lincoln Journal Star: Kerrey coming to Nebraska; no announcement expected
“Bob Kerrey and his family returned to Nebraska Friday...”

The AP: Kerrey coming to Nebraska, but no announcement expected
“Bob Kerrey is coming to Omaha this weekend…”

But how does the OWH see it?
Kerrey heading home, still weighing political future

“Bob Kerrey is heading home to Nebraska this weekend...”

(Apparently Jake Thompson missed the part about Kerrey living NYC the past seven or so years, having his residence there, his family there, voting there and heading up a school there.)

***

An interesting post from Benedict, Nebraska blogger Brian Bresnahan of “High Plains Patriot”. Bresnahan is a former Marine and is part of a political group called “United For Our Troops and Their Mission”.

He spent time with the group on Capitol Hill and posted about his adventure of going door to door in the House and Senate and visiting with the Nebraska Congressional delegation (towards the end of the post). No matter how you feel about the Iraq issue, it’s an interesting read to see what it’s like meeting with MOC and their staff.

Johanns kills 'em with kindness

He was pummeled with a hailstorm of insults, criticisms and half-truths before he even left the Rose Garden. And how does Mike Johanns respond to all those who hoped he’d wilt out of the box?

"For them to say —'His role has been so significant, so important, that we hate to see him leave' — is an unbelievable compliment."

"When I came out here three years ago, no one had any idea who I was. Now even my opponents are saying, 'This person had an impact and we wish he would stay.'

"I'm kind of gratified and humbled by the comments."

(Critics start early, but heat for D.C. departure a compliment, Johanns says – OWH – 9/21/07.)

Wow. Not only is that impressive restraint, but it’s exactly the kind of response Nebraskans want to hear out of the “level-headed” candidate.

And then for the return volley, Johanns smartly lets a surrogate – this time Senator Chuck Hagel – handle the harsh words. And harsh they were:

(Senator Ben ) Nelson took Johanns to task for not staying through to see the farm bill finished. It sets policy on farm subsidies, nutrition programs and conservation spending.

That prompted a retort from Hagel, who said that the Senate Agriculture Committee chairman, Iowa Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin, hasn't yet even offered a proposal for a farm bill in his committee.

"Mike Johanns can't do anything about that," Hagel said Thursday. "That's Democratic leadership. To try to say that somehow Mike Johanns has failed getting a farm bill is laughable and ignorant."

Laughable and ignorant. No, but Chuck, how do you REALLY feel? (And it didn't hurt that Chuck was able to take it to the juinor Senator...)

Everyone has their strategy. Bruning’s is slash and burn. Daub’s will be an attempt to shake every hand possible and out smart ‘em. But Johanns – and probably Kerrey’s, if he gets in – will be to be smile and chuckle and let someone else wield the dagger.

Now we’ll say this: to pound Johanns may have been the right move. Most people stick with their first impression, and how many, after they heard all the rest, will hear Johanns response?

The politically savvy do (like you, Leavenworth Street reader), but does your neighbor? Your co-worker? The sort-of-interested, but really focusing on kiddie soccer, high-school football, and the miserable Husker defense? Ask around and see what they heard and what they think (and feel free to post actual impressions here).

But we can’t argue with Johanns strategy.
He is no political novice.

No rest for Johanns

On the day that Mike Johanns is leaving the Bush Administration in a Rose Garden ceremony, it is obvious that Jon Bruning is going to continue tossing the haymakers. And Bruning is going to try to hit Johanns with what was Tom Osborne’s Achilles’ heel in the Governor’s race: immigration.

Johanns has made a number of statements regarding the Bush immigration plan, particularly regarding how it would affect migrant farm workers. It will be interesting to see if and how Johanns addresses this issue right out of the box. One would think/hope that Vicki Powell, who ran Osborne’s campaign and will(?) run Johanns campaign, will have prepped for this one.

***

Bruning is getting questioned about the stance he took recently regarding gas station owners in North Platte misleading consumers about their prices. (On gas pricing, did Bruning opinions follow publicity? – AP – 9/20/07 ) At the time Bruning said that the practices were illegally deceiving. However a few months before that, Bruning’s office put out an opinion that the practice was specifically “not illegal” and that the buyers should simply beware.

Bruning now says, that wasn’t HIS opinion. That was the opinion of (wait for it) Robbie the Intern!, and what matters is Bruning’s new opinion.

Robbie was last seen lying under a bus back behind the AG’s office, along with Jon’s son’s football coach…

***

Ben Nelson, no doubt still bitter about Chuck Hagel hammering him last year, has decided to put in his opinion on Mike Johann’s entrance, nice and early as well. Nelson has come out criticizing Johanns regarding the Farm Bill (saying Johanns is abandoning the bill). Yet, the House of Representatives has already addressed it and the Farm Bill sits right now, in Nelson’s own Senate Agriculture Committee!

On another note, Ben would also like to know when Johanns is going to mow Nelson’s lawn in Regency, since an unsightly yard reflects poorly on all Nebraskans.

***

Former Omaha City Councilman, (and former Republican) Cliff Herd is apparently going to make a run for the Democrat nomination to take on Congressman Lee Terry.

Herd is the “local businessman” we had referred to earlier and he should be able to self-finance a decent chunk of his campaign. No word yet on Democrat State Senator Tom White’s plans.

Herd has also been accused of trolling Leavenworth Street pimping his blog…

Calling NYC!

With the confirmation, apparently from Mike Kennedy, that Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns will officially run for the United State Senate, the question becomes: will the other shoe drop?

And that Birkenstock sandal belongs to New York’s own Cosmic Bob Kerrey.

The question for Kerrey has always been, how easy will it be to become a U.S. Senator?

Will he really have to move his family out of New York City to Nebraska?
Will he be unopposed in a primary?
Will he have an easy race in the general?

Only Kerrey’s family and those close to him know the first answer. Kerrey would have to move to Nebraska – or at least have a residence in the state. But in theory, his wife and kindergarten age child wouldn’t have to.

Is that even contemplated? Who knows. But it’s not something to be taken lightly, ESPECIALLY if winning the race isn’t a slam dunk.

Then comes the question of a primary. Most likely the rest of the Dems will clear out if Rockin’ Bob jumps in. But there is the slight question of Tony Raimondo and his buckets of money that could make it more of a hassle for Kerrey. Would Raimondo get in? Could he scare Kerrey off? Unknown, but it just might affect Kerrey’s decision.

And then there is the little matter of former Lincoln Mayor, former Governor current Ag-Man, Mike Johanns. If Kerrey, with all his New York baggage, has polling showing Johanns taking the race hands-down, would Kerrey even bother dragging his family to Nebraska (just to move back to NYC)? That’s a big question.

So right now ignore the Robert Novaks of the world who have guaranteed that Kerrey gets in this race. He won’t be getting in to lose.

Will Raimondo pull a Witek?

Rumors are flying these days about possible U.S. Senate candidate Tony Raimondo. With Hal Daub’s entry confirmed, and the word from Mike Johanns and Bob Kerrey awaited, Raimondo’s name is also tossed around as he’s “preparing” or some such.

But apparently the question for Raimondo isn’t if he’ll run, but for which party's nomination.

You may have noted that the recent Bruning poll did not include Raimondo’s name. Well, word has it that Raimondo’s internal polling shows him with no chance in a GOP primary. But Raimondo, no spring chicken, definitely wants to make a go of it. And with Bob Kerrey still flittering in the undecided column, Raimondo figures he may have a better shot on that side of the aisle.

Remember that one of Raimondo’s best political friends is none other than Nebraska’s junior Senator, E. Benjamin Nelson. If Bob Kerrey were to win, Nelson would stay as junior Senator – as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has promised Kerrey that he would keep his seniority built up from his last go-around. Is the prospect of going from juinor to senior enough for Nelson to encourage Raimondo to run?

Well, we can’t imagine that Raimondo would have any kind of a shot against Bob Kerrey. But if Kerrey doesn’t really have the embers in his gut, he might be convinced that Raimondo could carry the torch – especially if it looks like Mike Johanns could win in a rout. This could disappoint Scott Kleeb, but keep in mind that Raimondo has plenty of cash to make himself a decently viable candidate.

Would Democrats rally around Raimondo? Probably about as enthusiastically as they did for Republican/Democrat Auditor candidate Kate Witek. But with Nelson’s backing they may be able to stomach him a little more. Of course this all depends on Kerrey. But God (and possible Ernie Chambers – see below) only knows what he will do.

And what would Raimondo’s exit mean for the Republicans? Well, unfortunately for Hal Daub, it probably lowers his chances. Daub needs to peel off more votes from Bruning or Johanns, and Raimondo could help with that. If he doesn’t get in, it makes Daub's job that much tougher.

***

State Senator Ernie Chambers has made national news (again), this time for suing God. There are abundant jokes to be made here – How will he serve Him? Will He be defended by St. Peter, or Johnnie Cochran? Will He put his hand on the Bible, or will the Bible simply be entered into evidence?

But the most comical thing of all is the AP “file photo” from Nati Harnik that the Omaha World Herald decided to run with the story (right). Now THAT’s some comedy…

***

If you missed Chuck Hagel on the Today Show last Friday, you can re-watch the interview with Meredith Vieria here. And really, the only reason we mention this is Chuck’s response to Vieria’s pushing him about running, right around the 3:28 mark. It went like this:

VIEIRA: Why quit now given how impassioned you are about this war?
HAGEL: Well, I'm not quitting anything. I'm announcing...
VIEIRA: Well, you're not running.
HAGEL: Well, that doesn't mean quitting, dear.

And then when Vieria threw it to anchor Ann Curry, she got this:

VIEIRA: And now let's get the rest of the morning's stop stories from Ann Curry at the newsdesk. Ann, good morning to you.
CURRY:Meredith, thanks. Good morning, dear. Good morning.
VIEIRA: Yeah.

Daub: I'm in

We’re just going to give you this one straight from the press release and comment later. This from Nick Schinker, of the Daub campaign:

SCOTTSBLUFF, NEB. – Hal Daub today announced that he is a candidate for the U.S. Senate seat to be vacated in 2008 by current Sen. Chuck Hagel.

A lifelong Nebraskan and former U.S. Congressman, Omaha Mayor and Republican National Committeeman for the state, Daub made his announcement during an 8 a.m. (Mountain Daylight Time) visit to the Western Nebraska Regional Airport in Scottsbluff.

He will meet with the media during stops later today at the North Platte Regional Airport (11:35 a.m. CDT), Central Nebraska Regional Airport in Grand Island (1:55 p.m.), Lincoln Municipal Airport (4 p.m.) and Omaha, arriving at the Millard airport to address the media at 6 p.m.

He will continue his two-day swing through the state Tuesday with fly-in visits to the Beatrice Municipal Airport (8 a.m. news conference), a city where family members live and Daub spent summers in his youth; Hastings Municipal Airport (10:05 a.m.) Kearney Municipal Airport (12 p.m.), Columbus Municipal Airport (2:20 p.m.), Karl Stefan Memorial Airport in Norfolk (4:05 p.m.) and Martin Field in South Sioux City (6 p.m.).

With his wife, Mary, beside him, Daub said the couple learned many things during their statewide Listening and Learning Tour, which included listening sessions in 93 cities in all 93 Nebraska counties.

“People told us that it’s time to rise above partisan politics, and personal and political agendas,” Daub said. “They told us it’s time to fulfill the needs and carry out the instructions of the Nebraskans who elected them. They all said the same thing. We deserve better. The country deserves better . . . Washington needs to be fixed.

“Working together, we can change the course of this nation,” he said. “It starts with changing the course of the United States Senate. I am here to ask for the opportunity to serve as the agent of that change.”

Daub said he has the experience, the knowledge and the ability to help make government once again accountable to the people it serves.

“I pledge a positive, proactive campaign that is based on new ideas,” he said. “I will stir the pot and create a meaningful discussion about how I can personally work to solve problems and serve the people of Nebraska. I will continue to listen – and to learn.”

Daub said he would visit all 93 counties during the coming campaign – and again as U.S. Senator. “While the issues may change, I feel the responsibility of elected officials to stay in touch with the people who elected them should never change,” he said. “After my election, I pledge to return to each county in Nebraska at least once each year – more often if my schedule permits – and meet with my constituents.”

He is a partner in the law firm of Blackwell Sanders LLP, which has offices in Omaha and Lincoln, Kansas City and St. Louis, Mo.; and Washington, D.C. He served eight years in the U.S. House of Representatives (1981 to 1989) and more than six years as Omaha’s mayor (1995-2001). “During my four terms in Congress, as a member of the minority party, I authored scores of bills that remain in law today – tax and agriculture legislation that came from listening to the good ideas and concerns of my constituents.”

Daub said he intends to run a campaign that shows “the difference between false claims and genuine promises.”

“I will propose an ‘Agreement with Nebraskans’ that gives a clear understanding of my positions on the issues that are dividing Americans – and what I promise to do after I am elected to bring us back together,” he said. “And I will expect Nebraskans to hold me to this agreement.”

Daub grew up in Lincoln and Omaha and spent summers with his grandparents in Beatrice. He obtained his law degree from the University of Nebraska (1966) and served as a Platoon Leader, Captain and Company Commander in the U.S. Army Infantry (1966-68).

While in Congress, he drew upon his experiences as a youth and became a vocal advocate for agriculture, rural communities and older Americans. He served as Omaha’s Mayor during a key period of growth and planning, and has since served on numerous national committees and boards including as an advisory member of the Presidential Transition Team on Agricultural Policy (2000-01), keynote speaker for the White House Conference on Aging (2005) and chairman of the U.S. Social Security Advisory Board (2002-2006).

He has a long record of volunteer service with organizations including the Boy Scouts of America and the Salvation Army. Most recently, he served as chairman of the national board of Community Health Charities of America.

Daub is married to the former Mary Mernin Wurdeman of Omaha. She graduated from Duchesne College, taught in the Omaha Public Schools, co-owned and managed Wurdeman Real Estate Company, and has been active on numerous boards for charitable and civic causes, including Opera Omaha, Community Playhouse, Junior League, Joslyn Women’s Guild, Keep Omaha Beautiful, Symphony Guild, Freedom Foundation, Children’s Hospital, Arthritis Foundation, Junior Theater Board, Duchesne Alumni, Catholic Charities, Meyer Children’s Rehabilitation Institute, Western Heritage On Track board and Uta Halle Foundation.

To help gather information and opinions, Daub has created an informational Web site – www.HalDaub.com – and established a toll-free telephone number, 1-877-HAL-FACT (877-425-3228) where citizens may contact him and provide their thoughts and input.

Bruning swings a poll at Johanns

Consider this the first full day of the Nebraska Senate GOP Primary.

And Attorney General Jon Bruning has swung the first metal folding chair in what should prove to be a Battle Royal amongst Nebraska Republicans.

Bruning's camp has published a poll showing former Governor and current Secretary of Agriculture, Mike Johanns, at 39% and Bruning at 30%.

(It also shows Bruning ahead of Hal Daub, in a head to head match-up, 48%-17%.)

[See updated numbers below.]

The poll conducted for Bruning's campaign, surveyed 400 likely Republican primary voters, was conducted September 10-12 by Dresner, Wickers and Associates and had a four-point margin of error.

So why publish a poll showing you nine points down? Well, we will let Bruning's manager Jordan McGrain tell it:

"These numbers show that the pundits who say Mike Johanns is a clear favorite are flat-out wrong. Johanns is not the heavyweight among Republicans some expect him to be."

Now...

McGrain may be correct or he may be simply puffing and spinning. Frankly, without the poll's questions, locale and other details we just don't know how accurate it is. In any case, you could argue that Johanns's numbers should be much higher, or you could argue that considering Johanns isn't campaigning, he's sitting pretty.

But here's what we DO know:
We know that Bruning has made the first move:

• By publishing the poll, he has taken away Johanns's free-ride during his expected announcement.
• He has challenged the conventional wisdom among Republicans that Johanns will waltz back into the state and easily win the primary.
• And he's done it all at a time when Johanns, as the Secretary of Agriculture and unable to "campaign", can't hit him back!

Heck, Bruning whacked him with the folding chair while he was still taking his cape off.

Once again, Bruning has shown, at least, that he's not going to tap out.
You're going to have to throw him over the top rope.

And who will be left standing in the ring at the end of this Battle Royal?

***UPDATE 10:45, 9/14/07***
We've now seen the poll summary and our comments still stand: You can argue either way, but the real significance is the release of the poll itself.

By the way, in a primary with Johanns-Bruning-Daub, it looked like this:

Johanns - 39%
Bruning - 30%
Daub - 15%
Undecided - 16%

With just Bruning-Daub-Flynn it was:

Bruning – 48%
Daub – 17%
Flynn – 3%
Undecided – 32%

The waiting is over!

Approximately 182 days ago we put up this photo showing the pols waiting for Senator Chuck Hagel to make his decision.

Well…decision made. Now what?

Here’s what:

Mike Johanns
No word from him. He’ll be in Nebraska this week, but his office says he WON’T make any announcements. However, Asian traveler (and Governor) Dave Heineman tells the LJS that he’s FULLY EXPECTS Johanns to run. Heineman follows that up with, “Let me just say I know Mike Johanns very well.” So there you go.

Jon Bruning
From Bruning campaign manager Jordan McGrain to the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza: “He was prepared to run against a two-term incumbent United States Senator - I think he's proven that he's not afraid of a challenge. Jon Bruning is in this race to win and will take on all comers, including Mike Johanns.” Clear enough?

Hal Daub
Apparently was going to make an announcement today, but because of health issues with his mother-in-law, is holding off. We gotta think he’s in, right?

Tony Raimondo
After the Hagel announcement, he said he’ll chat about it with friends and family (wonder if Earl B. Nelson is in that group?), and “if I believe that the entire field of both parties is void of the vision key to Nebraska economic security, I will enter the race for this Senate seat.” We think he’ll find a void.

Bob Kerrey
Going to the Democratic Senatorial Committee to chat with Senator Chuck Schumer to see what he should do.

(Once again, the President of New York City’s liberal, Greenwich Village, New School, who also lives in New York City with his wife and kindergarten age son, is going to travel to Washington D.C., to meet with a liberal Senator from New York, to see if he should run for office from a state a thousand miles away. Got it.)

Mike Fahey
Waiting to see if anyone is going to lean on him to make him run.

Scott Kleeb
Hoping Cosmic Bob doesn’t run and the Mayor stays at the Holiday.

Michael Bloomberg
Seeing if anyone is interested in what he’s selling. Otherwise, sleeping soundly on gold plated pillows.

Hagel bows

Was Jon Bruning standing behind the Omaha Press Club wall as Chuck Hagel gave his speech?

For those of you who missed it (and this will probably lead the news), about a minute or two into his speech where he announced that he would be retiring from the Senate, Hagel’s “Faces on the Press Club Floor” caricature, which was hung up behind him, came crashing to the floor.

Hagel immediately joked that this may be symbolic of his announcement.

And that was pretty much the excitement of the day.

(The picture comes crashing down.)

(and the AP's shot of this...)

In other highlights from the speech, Hagel said:

• He hopes to have the opportunity to serve in another capacity down the road (hint-hint, cabinet position, next President).



• He WILL have something to say about the upcoming Senate race at the appropriate time.




• He does not categorically rule out running on a Unity ’08 ticket, but that he has no plans to run for anything in 2008.




• He is not endorsing any Presidential candidates right now.




• He (jokingly) would like a job as a “stringer” (or freelance journalist) for KFAB radio host (and Leavenworth Street reader), Gary Sadlemyer.




• He made this decision about a week ago.




• And…that he is confident that he would have won re-election had he decided to run (with a final thumb to the eye of the aforementioned Jon Bruning).

So we await Hagel’s involvement in this upcoming primary.

And the word from everyone in that picture up and to your right.

And the horses are out of the gate!!!

Senator, you’re on in 5…4…3…

Since the cat seems to be…rrrRRRRRR!…outta the bag, just a few things to tide you over before the big 10AM speech…

Ya gotta figure Chuck is going to surprise us with SOMETHING, right? Heck, otherwise he could just put out the proverbial press release, unless there’s something to say beyond what has been published everywhere. If he does have something to say, he better say it now, because after this, a lame duck Senator’s statements won’t get much airplay.

***

In Friday’s Washington Post, The Fix columnist Chris Cillizza’s wrote:

(Jon) Bruning may be urged to stand down by party leaders and wait his turn -- he is still in his 30s -- but may or may not choose to cut short a bid for Senate.

Uh Chris, that’s just not going to happen. And as much as we would suggest that Bruning tread lightly with Mike Johanns right now, we’re pretty sure that ship has sailed and we expect the AG to begin blasting away at the Ag Sec any day now.

***

Cillizza also said in Sunday’s Washington Post:

(New York New School President, Cosmic Bob) Kerrey said in an e-mail Friday that he will wait a "respectful time" after Hagel's announcement to make his own plans clear. Kerrey added: "I do not know what he is going to say and do not intend to comment on my plans before spending time reflecting on his service."

Yuh-huh. Reflecting on Hagel’s service. THAT’s what he’ll be doing. Not “Figuring out if I can whoop Mike Johanns.” No, he’ll be pondering what Chuck’s been doing the last twelve years. That’ll be New Yawk speak for, “Yeah, I gotta make the rubes back in Nebraska think I’m all contemplating, and stuff….”

***

And if you’re keeping score at home, Saturday’s Omaha World Herald article about “the Odds” of each candidate in the race will be the third time, recently anyway, that the OWH has directly ripped off Leavenworth Street. We’re waiting for our check to arrive in the email any day now.

Hagel to announce plans Monday

U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel's office has announced that the Senator will announce his plans for his political future on Monday at the Omaha Press Club, 10:00 AM Central time – almost six months to the day after the original non-announcement announcement.

No word yet as to whether CNN and the rest of the networks will be in attendance.

We should note that "Obvious", in the Leavenworth Street comments section , came closest to correctly guessing this date -- the pick was 9/11. However, we were using "Price is Right" rules (it's in the fine print) and thus since that pick was "over", no one wins the fine official L. St. gold medallion. Maybe next time...

The Waiting Game

Leavenworth Street asked you to give your predictions on when U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel will announce his decision, and many of you chimed in. "Hagel Predicting" has become something of a Washington parlor game as well. One DC insider, Steve Clemons of the Washington Note blog said:

The word is slowly leaking out that not only is Chuck Hagel not going to run for President -- but he's not going to run for the Senate again in 2008.

I'm not sure this is the final word, but Hagel is getting ready to make an announcement either this next Saturday or the one following -- and all indicators are that he is going to depart an institution that very much still needs his conscience and sensibilities.

Well, unless Hagel wants that story buried under the headlines of either the Wake Forest or USC game, we think it will come mid-week, next week. The Senate isn’t in session, and this would be a prime time for Chuck to come to Nebraska and let us know what he has come up with after six months of pondering.

And as others have ventured, don’t be surprised if he talks about his Senate plans, but leaves the door open in case anything else should open up (Bloomberg!...cough…Bloomberg!).

***

Now a quick follow-up on the man who would love to have Nebraskans send him from New York City to Washington, D.C., Cosmic Bob Kerrey. When we last left Kerrey, he was complaining that his good bud, Chinese Ponzi schemer and general fraud artist Norman Hsu, was getting a bad break.

If you recall, Kerrey had recruited Mr. Hsu to be on the Board of Trustees at Kerrey’s New School in New York City. According to the L.A. Times, Kerrey had personally recruited Hsu to be on the New School’s board:

"He had a very interesting background," Kerrey said. "I was intrigued by the story of him coming from China to [attend UC Berkeley]. He went to Wharton."

Kerrey said the university did not do background checks on prospective board members. Hsu gave thousands of dollars to the school in recent years.

Kerrey said he never inquired about the source of Hsu's wealth. "My presumption is that he's rich," he said.

So Kerrey’s knowledge of the guy is: has a college degree and money falling out of his pockets. Sign him up!

But now Hsu is on the run, failed to appear in court, jumped from a two million dollar bail bond. And what does Rockin’ Bob have to say?

“I don’t know what is going on in his mind,” Mr. Kerrey said. “I thought that I knew him, but obviously I didn’t.” (Clinton donor fails to appear in court again – NYT –
9/6/07.)

He thought he knew him, yet had no idea how he came into his fortune? Why do we have a feeling this story isn’t over?