Thursday, September 27, 2007

The Phantom Poll

In the Wednesday evening Lincoln Journal Star, columnist Don Walton slipped in a doozy pertaining to his meeting with probable U.S. Senate candidate Mike Johanns. It went like this:

Although Johanns didn’t mention it, he had to be buoyed by the results of a GOP Senate primary poll taken in Nebraska last week by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (“NRSC”).

The results: Johanns, 58 percent; Attorney General Jon Bruning, 16 percent; former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub, 12 percent.

Bruning earlier released results of a poll commissioned by his campaign showing him trailing Johanns by nine points with neither candidate cracking 40 percent.
(Johanns ready to launch campaign – LJS – 9/26/07.)

Leavenworth Street has since learned, from various sources, more information about this. Namely:
  • Don Walton hasn’t actually seen the poll;

  • The “poll data” came to Don Walton via three Nebraska Republicans, two of whom are Johanns supporters;

  • The NRSC is saying that they have “no intention of leaking or releasing any possible polling data from Nebraska.”

Now.

You can imagine that there are certain candidates and their campaigns who believe that this poll was made up out of whole cloth to show a much different picture of the current favorites. Others note that they don’t care about polls, and Dave Heineman didn’t care about them last year either.

Leavenworth Street is fairly confident, based on discussions with its sources, that it was an actual poll conducted by the NRSC.

As was reported in the OWH and other places, last week NRSC head John Ensign made calls to Rep. Lee Terry and Governor Dave Heineman to see if Jon Bruning and Hal Daub would clear the way for a favored candidacy of Mike Johanns.

Just about anyone who knows Bruning or Daub knows that wasn’t going to happen.

Nonetheless, apparently the NRSC polled to try to convince the other candidates that their attempt to resist the Johanns juggernaut was futile. Now to achieve that goal, their poll would have to be convincing, right? Some argue that to achieve numbers like they’ve quoted for Johanns, the poll had to have been pushed, and pushed heavily.

So there are some numbers out there. Who has access to them? Who knows? But they were “leaked” by someone, and it is just possible that Sen. Ensign and the NRSC haven’t given up on the idea of the Johanns juggernaut just yet.

In any case, you can’t really blame some Johanns supporters for leaking this poll information to assist their candidate. But of course, if the NRSC doesn’t release any information about it, or even acknowledge its existence, how will we ever know if the poll is accurate?

Does this smell fishy?

We’ll wait three days get further info.
And as most people know, at the end of three days, fish starts to stink.

30 comments:

Anonymous said...

Good work, SS! Interesting numbers and all that jazz!

Head In The Clouds said...

It makes me very uncomfortable that National Politics is becoming so heavily involved at such an early date. While I would agree that they need a strong candidate for a general, I do not believe they should push a candidate, at this point. They did this last year and just look how that turned out!

Since it is unlikely that Senator Nelson leaked this poll, it seems likely that Senator Linehan, oops, I mean Senator Hagel probably did.

As for Ensign, he's from Nevada, he's just trying to set the odds.

Super Mario said...

I agree...this reeks of Hagel/Linehann.

They must be truly worried about Bruning if they're having to resort to these kinds of tactics.

anonymous coward said...

I heard about a poll from a well-connected political guy that showed Pat Flynn leading with like 78% of the vote.

Anonymous said...

I saw that too! It's up on Survey USA.

Anonymous said...

I bet it was Robbie the Intern who leaked these numbers. Dang it Robbie!

kid gop said...

I don't need a poll. Common sense tells me Bruning will get his butt kicked by Johanns.

It's showtime...........

Anonymous said...

Sweeper, why wait three days? Do you know something that makes you say three instead of four, or two?

Three days is a long wait, with a weekend coming.

I want answers in the newspaper tomorrow, Walton.

Anonymous said...

Where was Mort Sullivan in all of this?


-Octavius

linebacker said...

In unrelated news....

1. Vicki Powell will not be heading the Johanns campaign.

2. The nutbag who brought a gun onto UNL's campus last week (Colin Fury) works for none other than Jeff Fortenberry.

That is all.

Borat said...

Who wants to give odds that Jessica Moening will be adding another title of Campaign Manager to her resume in a few days?

brimley said...

I'll take that bet. Chris Peterson is running the Johanns campaign.

Anonymous said...

Bruning's odds just got much better than...Petersen is the guy who ruined Greg Ruhle's campaign in 2004.

linebacker said...

CP is ditching UP, eh?

Anonymous said...

The Politico has this:

Kerrey-Hsu ties may affect Nebraska race

Anonymous said...

Why does everyone think Sen. Ensign supports Johanns? NRSC staff, yes. But Ensign? Remember, Ensign remains close to former Rep. Jon Christensen. And who beat Christensen in the gubernatorial primary? And who pushed Johanns over the finish line with a last minute trashing of Christensen?

Street Sweeper said...

Hold on there Anony.
Ensign's job is to elect Republicans to the Senate. It's his, and others', opinion that Johanns is the most electable against most Democrat candidates in Nebraska.

B/c of that, he and others in the NRSC are trying to grease the skids for Johanns.

And when he makes personal calls to Terry and Heineman to do as much, that should square it away for you.

Anonymous said...

This is sad...

http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=2835&u_sid=10143609

Anonymous said...

Hal Daub out of the race?

Anonymous said...

2004 wasn't that long ago people. Quit blaming Chris Peterson and Jessica Moenning for parts they didn't play in the First District primary. You sound better about your personal lack of success.

Anonymous said...

bitter not better...sorry

Obviously Anonymous said...

I have to agree with anonymous 5:06. This is sad, and I really wish National politicos would allow the democratic process to work for a little while before playing Gepetto like we are too stupid to make a wise choice on our own.

And yes, I do remember what happened last November. I just wonder how many people can honestly say the the right person didn't get elected?

spikestrip said...

hd needs to run for omaha mayor again to clean up mf's mess.

anyone hear jb's meltdown on klin drive time tonight. i thought jb was going to through robbie under the bus again and blame the poll results on him. i was laughing so hard i almost lost control of my car.

shhh...be very quite. do you hear that humming noise?

is it jb's political career getting flushed down the toilet? nope, that is the swooshing noise.

the humming noise is the hagel-johanns-heineman machine warming up. linehan was recently seen tuning it up.

Gespacho said...

Borat is right on. I was sitting next to JM at Dunkin Donuts when she asked Flynn about being his CM, but he said he didn't want to spend $12 million just to lose by 30 points.

Also, Linebacker, thank you. Learning that the guy on campus with a rifle worked for Fortenberry makes perfect sense. If I worked for Fort, I would probably be looking for a quiet place on campus to shoot myself, too. When is SS going to do an article titled "Fort's Staff on Fort: Who's Left that Hasn't Considered Suicide."

Fullback said...

If only Fort would hire Linehan as his chief after Hagel is gone, we could watch his staff turnover like the numbers on that Web site with the national debt

One Out In The Third said...

Daub is out? Meltdown already. Maybe Cosmic Bob is waiting around thinking everyone is eventually going to drop out and he wins by default.

If the Hsu fits...

spikestrip said...

fullback:

there are not that many inept staffers working for fortenberry. you are just hoping she does not go to work for terry so you can keep your job.

Gob said...

I knew Fortenberry couldn't hang on to the good staffers, but know you're telling me that he can't even keep the inept ones?

Face it Spike, we all know that Fortenberry's staff has more turnover than the Bunny Ranch. But hey, you've clearly found a home there.

Mom said...

In reading some of these "staffer" blogs, I am experiencing genuine sadness for some of you who lead such little lives. You demean and slander people out of jealousy...for what?! To say you are the greatest staffer?!?! To be a staffer means you have been given a job at the good choice and grace of another. If you can't say anything good about someone, particularly one who is a public servant, don't say anything at all. You 20-somethings need to experience life and quit fantasizing that you are powerful. You're not...quite the opposite is true. And even worse is that you behave like liberals: biting, angry, and bitter. Grow up and act in accord with your calling lest your actions betray your true stature.

Street Sweeper said...

If we can break back into the topic at hand, we've had a few inquiries as to whether we were aware of the Hal Daub known secret. We are, and we waiting for more info before we comment.

In the mean time here's a question: How do you think Daub WOULD HAVE influenced the race?