Too Much Coffee

And don't you raise my taxes!

Don Walton recently wrote in the Lincoln Journal Star about the influence the 3rd District will have in the upcoming statewide GOP Primaries (Look west for GOP winners – LJS 2/27/06). His point: The 3^rd has a higher GOP voter registration and they actually go to the polls. But Don also seems to believe that 3rd Districters don't go fer fancy teevee ads. They need to look that dadgum politician in the eye at the coffee shop before they decide who they'll vote fer.

Don't believe it.

Every day we hear more and more about how small cities and towns are part of the media revolution – they watch TV, listen to lots of talk radio, and surf the internet just like the city-mice. They can probably receive direct mail and phone calls too. But to get through to them we’re to understand that they have to meet the candidate at the diner? Please. People of the 3rd are as susceptible to a political ad as a South Omahan or East Lincolnite. Not to mention, there's a growing part of the 3rd who couldn't even find the local coffee shop. People in Grand Island, Hastings, Kearney, North Platte and Scottsbluff aren't exactly living on the farm. And those coffee shops Don refers to are tiny in any case. (Though there’s no denying that a visit to the local paper is a good move.)

The candidates can't and won't say it, but you can hear it here on Leavenworth Street: Meeting tiny groups one on one in a modern statewide race is over-rated. Trying to shake the hand of every voter is simply not possible. If you don’t have a serious media presence you don’t appear credible and your message won’t get out.

(However, it should be added that Don Walton is read regularly on Leavenworth Street and his political insight is invaluable.)

The Future of Nebraska Politics?

The National Journal’s Hotline On Call has posted who it thinks are the future Nebraska political stars. It doesn't mention its sources, but the list is all encompassing. More thoughts on this later. Here's the meat of the article:

The stars we've been watching since '03:

• State Sen. Adrian Smith (R): One of those term-limited Sens, Smith is running for Osbourne's NE 03 seat. He's "tireless," but others think he spends too much time expressing interested in higher office.
• NE GOP chair Mark Quandahl (R): A former State Sen and "fascinating" person, he's "a breath of fresh air" at the party.
• State Sen. Pam Redfield (R): She's "not terribly active" and has decided against seeking office when she's forced out by term limits in '06.
• State Sen. Mike Foley (R): A candidate for State Auditor who is running, at the moment, unopposed. "In the Conservative movement, Mike is an up-and-comer" and "the one to watch" most closely on this list.
• Omaha City Councilmember Dan Welch (R): "Has an interest in Congress" when Rep. Lee Terry (R) moves on from his NE 02 seat. After winning re-election in '05, this "bright, brilliant" councilmember has people excited about his future. "Dan would make a great congressman." "I would love to see Dan run for" NE 02.
• Omaha City Council Pres. Jim Vokol (R): After winning re-election in '05, Vokol has set his sights on a mayoral bid in '07.
• Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R): The first GOPer to carry the city of Lincoln, he has "a broad-based appeal statewide" should he choose to make a run in the future.
• State Sen. Carol Hudkins (R): Term-limited out in '06. Most question her presence our '03 list.
• NE Dem Exec. Dir. Barry Rubin: "Indescribably good" at a tough job. Could be a rising star on a nat'l level and may end up in DC.
• Ex-NE Gov. candidate Stormy Dean (D): Back in the private sector at InfoUSA, still active in the party but has no plans to run for office in the immediate future.
• NE Dem Sec. Kim Dean: Like her husband, Stormy, she's back in private practice as well.
• State Sen. Nancy Thompson (D): Term-limited in '06, Thompson now spends her time working for the NE Boys and Girls Club and is "stepping away from politics"
• State Sen. Matt Connealy (D): Term-limited in '06, he "has aspirations to run for office in the future" and is considering future statewide bids. Remains a member of the State Dems Exec Cmte.
• State Sen. Pat Bourne (D): Term-limited in '06, he's "one of our biggest rising stars." "We certainly hope he has future aspirations."
• State Sen. Chris Beutler (D): Has expressed interest in future office and considered a Gov bid in '06 before deciding against it. He's "very sharp," and has ambition.
• Lincoln Mayor Coleen Seng (D): Hasn't decided about an '07 re-election bid after winning a surprise victory in '03. Still, "very few people that see her going beyond where she is now."
• Businessman Jim Jenkins (D): A restauranteur who had considered an '06 gov bid but decided against it, most "would not be surprised to see him go for it in the future."

And the stars to watch in the future:

• NE Board of Education member Bob Evnen (R): Appointed by Gov. Heineman, the Lincoln atty "potentially would be someone who might consider running for congress." The Board of Education is "just a beginning" in his political career.
• Lancaster Co. GOP Chair Mark Fahleson (R): Another Lincoln atty and former CoS to ex-Rep. Dan Christensen (R), he "would serve" NE "well, either in the legislature or even for higher office" should Fortenberry choose to move on.
• State Sen. Mike Friend (R): From a political family, some call him "very impressive" and "an up and comer." Others question whether he'll have a future past the legislature. He could serve the state well on a down-ballot statewide position, some say, but "he's were he's meant to be," according to others.
• State Sen. Philip Erdman (R): Just 28 years old and serving his 2nd term, he's "very ambitious." Many were surprised he didn't run for NE 03 when Osbourne moved on, but others suspect that he made a deal with Adrian Smith to wait, given that he's just started a family. Everyone we talked to was excited for Erdman's future.
• New Digital Group CEO David Hahn (D): Making his first run at statewide office this year, Hahn is running for Gov, and while the race is uphill, "he's going to surprise a lot of people."
• State Sen. Patrick Bourne (D): An Omaha atty, he's a "smart, personable guy." "He's got a lot of future."
• Rancher Scott Kleeb: Running for Osbourne's NE 03 seat, he's a bull rider with a Ph.D. from Yale. "Strikes me as the kind of guy who could have a future if he wants one." He's got a chance in his current race, but "lightening would have to strike."
• State Sen. candidate Tom White (D): He "has a bright future in the party" and has impressed a number of people in his first bid for office. "Very smart, attractive, interesting guy." "He'll be a factor" in the legislature.

Separated at Birth?

Congressman Jeff Fortenberry
and
Donny Osmond

The Smart Bet (but...)

Republican Governor Primary Odds

Tom Osborne 5:4
Dave Heineman 4:1
Dave Nabity 50:1

Reasoning:

Tom Osborne

As it’s been said before, King TO really should just have to show up, say some Governorly things, and he wins by a ridiculous margin. Funny thing is, he doesn’t seem to be taking it that easy. He’s already taken cuts at Heineman, which leads one to believe that maybe he (or his polls) knows something we don’t. Maybe, just maybe, there are some chinks in the king’s armor? Naahhhhhhhhh.

But still… if he continues to say dumb things, (like saving a $100 million by cutting down on teenage drinking), and refuses to take a position on the school district issue, (and ENOUGH with the football! A Barry Switzer fundraiser? Ohhhhh yeah; you were a FOOTBALL coach. Yeah TO, we get it…) maybe with the perfect storming of the castle, ol’ Dave could have a shot… (and that’s why TO doesn’t get the 1:1 odds.)

Dave Heineman

Heineman seems to be doing the right things. He has the respect of many party leaders. He swung the endorsement of Chuck Hagel and the GOP contingent of the Omaha City Council. He’s got plans for the budget and the school issues (either of which may be great or may be guff, not really sure yet). And any other year, he’d have a really good chance of staying Governor. But not this year. So of course, at some point he’ll have to go negative. He’ll need something to really make Nebraskans question the King of the University. But as the old saying goes, if you’re going to attack the King, you better kill him (metaphorically here, folkes) because if you fail, the King lops of your head instead. So that means if and when Heineman goes negative, it better be strong enough to take Osborne out, but not so strong as to come back and bite him. This is quite a task. Can Heineman pull it off? The wise gambler says no. But right now, his campaign has gotta like those odds…

Dave Nabity

Some other year Nabity may have had a shot. Word on Leavenworth Street is that he’s likeable, has good ideas and would actually make a pretty good Governor. Only problem is he’s running against a sitting Gov from his own party and the aforementioned King. What Nabity adds to this race will be interesting, as in, will the few votes he gets take away from Heineman or Osborne? If they’re from Heineman, then maybe he has a position in the Osborne Administration. If they’re from TO, then maybe, just maybe he’ll be part of the insurection. In any case, your money on Nabity is only good if you’re counting on photos of Heineman and Osborne in bed with Paris Hilton (and even then, people would probably think good ol’ Tom is just offering her a scholarship…)

Note: As mentioned before, this series on odds for the Nebraska elections is for amusement purposes only, and should not be seen as endorsement for illegal gambling or the Trump Council Bluffs Hotel and Casino.

$.02

In honor of Presidents’ Day, Leavenworth Street will be delaying its promised Governor’s Race Odds for a day. In that vein, we ask YOU to reply below (you can do this anonymously if you’d like, and you don’t have to sign in) and give your two Abraham Lincoln medallions why you think the odds should be set thusly.

Then come back on Tuesday for Leavenworth Street’s GOP Governor’s Race Odds.

Chuck v. Cheney

In a presser with journalists, after talking about the merits of diplomacy with Iran, the OWH reports United States Senator Chuck Hagel throwing out this line:

Hagel also got in a gibe at Vice President Dick Cheney's accidental shooting of a hunting partner last weekend.
Referring to Cheney's repeated draft deferrals during the Vietnam War, Hagel said, "If he'd been in the military, he would have learned gun safety."
(U.S. should be talking with Iran, Hagel says - OWH – 2/17/06)

Some would say that this fun-poking is reminiscent of Teddy Roosevelt.
Others would point out that TR eventually became a Bull Moose.

Place Your Bets!

Republican Senate Primary Odds

Pete Ricketts 2:1
David Kramer 4:1
Don Stenberg 7:1

Reasoning:

Pete Ricketts:
It’s all about the cashe (hipply pronounced “kay-sh”), baby. The guy’s got more TV face time than John Knicely (though slightly less than Jon Bruning). His campaign understands the power of carpet bombing your living room with commercials. Pete also has a touch of charm and charisma, which, shockingly, one CANNOT purchase. He’s a force to be reckoned with. Pancake flips and parades and rubber chicken dinners are all fine. But the mass public needs to see you on TV to know you. And in that vein, he’s getting the job D-U-N.

David Kramer:
In an early odds-making upset, Kramer takes the lead from Stenberg. What has Donny done to deserve this? See below.
So where does that leave us with the newly svelte Kramer? Being the GOP chair will mean that people are vaguely familiar with him, and that’s at least a third of the battle. But he’ll need some serious free-media to give his campaign the jump. Waiting for that to happen means waiting to lose. What will Big Dave need to do? Go NEGATIVE. He’ll need to find a solid issue to attack Ricketts on, without it coming back to hit him. Can he do it? If so, he could be a formidable challenge to Nelson.

Don Stenberg:
Don has a been-there-done-that-bought-the-T-shirt quality about his campaign that excites no one. His message? “You know me.” Yes, we know that you’re as enticing as the State High School Curling Tournament while being locked out of the Booze Suites. And you’re just a little too PRO-give-the-President-all-the-power-he-wants in a climate where even pro-Bush people want to see a few more i’s dotted and t’s crossed. If somehow Ricketts and Kramer implode, Don-o would get pummeled by Nelson like a narc at a biker rally.

This is the first in a series of ODDS for the various races in Nebraska this year.
You are encouraged to submit your reasoning why you think these odds should be changed. Unless you are a Gubernatorial Candidate. In which case, you should denounce this column as a precursor to bankruptcy and fornication.

Note: This is for amusement purposes only and should not be taken as an endorsement of illegal gambling or a come-on to Janet Jones-Gretsky.

Coming MONDAY
Governor’s Race ODDS!

Separated at Birth?

Nebraska Attorney General, Jon Bruning

and

Late night host, Jimmy Kimmel

Osborne's First Punch

I guess I always figured Representative/Coach Osborne would play this election as the elder statesman, coming back to govern with dignity. But darned it if ol’ TO hasn’t come out swingin’ at Governor Dave from the git go! Official Day One: GO NEGATIVE!

(Osborne officially files, vows to reduce spending – OWH – 2/14/06)

Not hearing the whole thing, I’m guessing he was responding to a question, but Osborne immediately sent a hard jab at the Governor over what he calls Heineman’s “roller coaster ride of tax cuts and tax hikes.” Ouch!

But TO has a proposal too, and it’s a doozy:

1) Have a statewide audit. (OK, fine, but that’s not exactly a plan, now is it?)

2) Reform statewide Medicare. (Beyond my pay grade. Could be a good plan? I really don’t know. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt on this.)

3) Save loads of money by cutting down on meth use and underage drinking.

OK, on that last one: You’re kidding, right? Does ANYONE think A) you can really make a significant cut in underage drinking and B) save loads of money doing it? I don’t want to beat a dead horse, but how’d that plan work out with the Peter brothers?

And I don’t want to try to tackle the whole meth thing, but I’m guessing that there’s no great way to make a significant dent in that, any more than there is for any other drug. Are we talking about more “Real Men Don’t Use Porn Meth” billboards?

This is truly a ridiculous proposition from a serious candidate for the highest office in the state, let alone from the guy who’s probably going to be anointed to the job anyway.

Heineman and Nabity have plans that I’m sure have plenty of question marks in them. But the former Coach’s is so silly, I’m wondering what’s going on in his office.

Fit to Print

As noted here last week, Chuck Hagel was profiled in Sunday’s New York Times Magazine (2/12/06). You can view the entire article here (NYT free registration required).

Nothing new to anyone who’s followed his career: he’s a war hero; he’s buddies with McCain; he disagrees with Bush about Iraq.

If the article shows Hagel as anything, it’s bitter and defensive. That’s probably why the sad clown pic on the cover. But the fact that the NYT did a cover piece on him, should tell you that he's met their political prerequisites. Does George Allen get this cover piece?

Tom Osborne Debate Schedule

(Governor, rivals at odds – OWH – 2/10/06)
(Osborne, Nabity set 3 debates, invite Heineman – LJS – 2/10/06)
(Osborne, Nabity agree to three debates; Heineman wants six – GII – 2/10/06)

Senator Pagliacci

The New York Times must have been driving down Leavenworth Street, as they too have decided to feature Chuck Hagel. (Yeah that’s why…)

Anywho, how about the reason given for why Hagel isn’t L-U-V-ed by the GOP, as reported today in ABC News: The Note:

The former executive editor of the New York Times Joseph Lelyveld's 8,000-word Chuck Hagel profile lands on the cover of the New York Times Magazine set to hit your doorstep this weekend.

Lelyveld spends much time exploring Hagel's conservative bona fides within his well-known maverick context. Hagel also spends a moment or two 'on the couch' when talking about some difficult times with his father. The profile certainly captures that thing all potential presidential candidates like to sell on the stump and on the airwaves — a good story.

"A Republican campaign pro, after an astute analysis of Hagel's virtues and drawbacks, zeroed in on a factor no one else had mentioned, one that he seemed to feel said a lot about the reason Hagel's party hasn't warmed to him, and therefore about his limited prospects."

"'He doesn't have a happy face,' the pro said."

Lelyveld also reports that Sen. Hagel will never take "the pledge" against any and all tax cuts under any circumstances.

(Emphasis added.)

GOP Game Day

Is the upcoming GOP Gubernatorial Primary really a battle between the GOP Giants Chuck Hagel and Tom Osborne?

Let's look back at Hagel's decision to endorse Dave Heineman in April of 2005:Word from insiders was that Chuck tired of TO dragging his feet about his decision on the Gov's race, and still is bitter that Osborne didn't run for the U.S. Senate in 2000, paving the way for Earl Ben Nelson (whom Hagel loathes).

And/but:
1. Will Hagel tape commercials endorsing Governor Dave?
2. Will Osborne care?
3. Will Nebraskans care?
4. And what will be the result of this cold-war within the party when the election is over, particularly when Hagel is up in ’08?

And of course the big question, will Governor TO give Lawrence Phillips a second chance in his administration? I’m just asking!

Separated at Birth?

David Kramer and Jared from Subway:

The REAL Bridge to No Where

A few months back taxpayers were up in arms because Alaska Senator Ted Stevens (R) got funds for a bridge in Ketchikan, Alaska that went “no where” (Wash. Post 10/21/05). But as near as I can tell, it could handle cars. And there was an airport nearby. So while probably not the best idea, it could actually be useful to some people. Well it got shot down.

Now comes the Omaha-Council Bluffs pedestrian bridge. Saint Bob Kerrey got the money for it. Earl B. Nelson is now defending it. There have been arguments about what to name it. And there has been a realization that it really can’t be the giant behemoth to be a symbol of the city, as was originally hoped.

Just one question: What in the world is this thing for? Now I would like this thing as much as the next riverfront developer. But let’s be honest: NO ONE WILL USE THIS! It goes over to Council Bluffs! Are there hordes of people standing on the banks of the Mighty Mo taking rafts across now, that I’m not aware of? Oh but the bikers! The bikers! What of the bikers! Catch me if I’m wrong, but haven’t we already built them (or are building?) a trail from the airport to Bellevue. So what, now the bikers have their own personal bridge to the riverboats? Gaaaaahhhh!

Senate candidates Pete Ricketts and Dave Kramer have denounced it (Senate candidates bash bridge project – OWH 02/03/06). They’ve also denounced the parking garage at Creighton and the parking lot at Joslyn. I’ll grant you that if those projects were in another state, we’d be screaming about the waste of our tax dollars. But at least those are defensible! They have a purpose! But you wanna talk about a bridge to no where…

So you wanna be a Rock n' Roll star...

National Journal’s Blog (which makes this a little like looking into a mirror into a mirror…) ranks the Nebraska Senate race as #13 on their top Senate races. However, they go on to say,

“Remember when this was a top five race? It could be again if Pete Ricketts is the GOP nomination. Color us impressed with this guy. He's got a Thune-Obama-McCain no-nonsense quality about him that could resonate. He's still got to buy his way out of the primary, however, which is why we're keeping this race out of the top 10.”

Does that put a little zip in your morning coffee, Rickett’s staff?
And if Obama was the Dem’s “Rock Star”, does that make Petey:
Michael Stipe? Billy Corgan? Moby? the guy from Midnight Oil? Help me out here….

US Senate FEC Filings FUN!

The following data comes from the Nebraska U.S. Senate Candidates FEC filings, as compiled by the National Journal. Have fun.

According to the National Journal, Pete Ricketts is the second biggest “Non-Incumbent Spender for the 4thQ”, in the country, behind Bob Casey (D) in the Pennsylvania Senate race.



The above are derived from FEC filings for the twelve month period ending 12/31/05. The row "Total Receipts" (Line 16 on FEC form 3) includes all donations, transfers, cmte money, loans/contributions made by the candidate, and interest earned on the account. The "Individual Contributions" row reflects FEC line 11(a-iii), which only includes money raised from individuals other than the candidate. "PACs" (FEC line 11c) may include money transferred from other candidates' cmtes.

Nelson Leverages Corporate Buyout of GOP Challengers

With more money than all his challengers combined (Nelson's $3.2 million tops Senate race - OWH – 02/01/06), U.S. Senator Earl B. Nelson’s Campaign has decided to purchase the Ricketts, Kramer, and Stenberg Senate Campaigns, and merge them with his own to create one giant Conservative message holding company. With a total value of the GOP-three coming in at just $1,976,527 (with only $386,631 actually on hand), Nelson’s move was a shrewd one in the view of most Wall St. analysts.

“Nelson 2006 can synergize the efforts of those three campaigns to save costs, combine vote revenue and relax the advertising impact on voters across the state,” said an unnamed source within the Omaha World Herald Business pages.

“With the same message from all four of Support the President, Support the War and Confirm Conservative Justices, this really was a no-brainer from a business perspective. It’s amazing that Pete Ricketts, with all of his dad’s business background and money, didn’t think of it first,” continued the no-name source.

Nelson will now rename his campaign Nel-Ric-Kram-Sten (in the tradition of Ak-Sar-Ben and Pamida) and will begin attacking Chuck Hagel as a tax-and-spend Liberal.