Monday, February 20, 2006

The Smart Bet (but...)

Republican Governor Primary Odds

Tom Osborne 5:4

Dave Heineman 4:1
Dave Nabity 50:1


Tom Osborne

As it’s been said before, King TO really should just have to show up, say some Governorly things, and he wins by a ridiculous margin. Funny thing is, he doesn’t seem to be taking it that easy. He’s already taken cuts at Heineman, which leads one to believe that maybe he (or his polls) knows something we don’t. Maybe, just maybe, there are some chinks in the king’s armor? Naahhhhhhhhh.

But still… if he continues to say dumb things, (like saving a $100 million by cutting down on teenage drinking), and refuses to take a position on the school district issue, (and ENOUGH with the football! A Barry Switzer fundraiser? Ohhhhh yeah; you were a FOOTBALL coach. Yeah TO, we get it…) maybe with the perfect storming of the castle, ol’ Dave could have a shot… (and that’s why TO doesn’t get the 1:1 odds.)

Dave Heineman

Heineman seems to be doing the right things. He has the respect of many party leaders. He swung the endorsement of Chuck Hagel and the GOP contingent of the Omaha City Council. He’s got plans for the budget and the school issues (either of which may be great or may be guff, not really sure yet). And any other year, he’d have a really good chance of staying Governor. But not this year. So of course, at some point he’ll have to go negative. He’ll need something to really make Nebraskans question the King of the University. But as the old saying goes, if you’re going to attack the King, you better kill him (metaphorically here, folkes) because if you fail, the King lops of your head instead. So that means if and when Heineman goes negative, it better be strong enough to take Osborne out, but not so strong as to come back and bite him. This is quite a task. Can Heineman pull it off? The wise gambler says no. But right now, his campaign has gotta like those odds…

Dave Nabity

Some other year Nabity may have had a shot. Word on Leavenworth Street is that he’s likeable, has good ideas and would actually make a pretty good Governor. Only problem is he’s running against a sitting Gov from his own party and the aforementioned King. What Nabity adds to this race will be interesting, as in, will the few votes he gets take away from Heineman or Osborne? If they’re from Heineman, then maybe he has a position in the Osborne Administration. If they’re from TO, then maybe, just maybe he’ll be part of the insurection. In any case, your money on Nabity is only good if you’re counting on photos of Heineman and Osborne in bed with Paris Hilton (and even then, people would probably think good ol’ Tom is just offering her a scholarship…)

Note: As mentioned before, this series on odds for the Nebraska elections is for amusement purposes only, and should not be seen as endorsement for illegal gambling or the Trump Council Bluffs Hotel and Casino.

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