What's Next Don?

OK, now I’ve heard it all. Don Stenberg is unhappy about the phone calls Pete Ricketts is making (Ricketts phone calls irk Stenberg – OWH – 4/29/06). Not because they are the alleged push-poll calls (which he seems to be back-tracking on). Not because they say something negative or untrue about him. No, he doesn’t like them because he thinks the person called will be confused that it is a polling call, when it’s actually an advocacy call. And while that’s not even true, because a tag line is added that sepfically states that Ricketts paid for the call, sooooooooooooooooo what? What if the person DOES think it’s a poll, as opposed to an advocacy call?

Don, as you go down in your final race, to quote Don Corleone, “You could act like a man!”

And we heard Don doesn’t like the Ricketts yard signs, because… well… people might confuse them with garage-sale signs or home-for-sale signs. And when Don asked people if they’d seen a Ricketts yard sign at least a quarter of those asked had. So they must be misleading. (I swear I heard someone say that they heard someone say that they think this.) Oh, and Ricketts spends lots of money.

The More Things Change...

In case you haven’t heard it enough lately…
· KMTV has a poll that says Osborne and Heineman are STILL neck and neck…
· Pete Ricketts is STILL rich, is STILL spending money to get his name out, and is STILL ahead…
· Annnnd, Pete Ricketts STILL looks like Boston Red Sox manager Terry Francona...

Major Polling Released

For those of you who only read the Omaha World Herald (and didn't get the Ricketts press release), you may not know that there is a new, major, poll that was done and released yesterday on the major races and issues for the elections. (500 likely voters.) (My guess is the OWH doesn’t want to take the wind out of the sails from their own polls that they’ll be publishing soon…) The Lincoln Journal Star summarizes it well here: (Poll: Governor's race a dead heat – LJS – 4/27/06)

The results are as follows:

Senate Race Primary
Ricketts: 52%
Stenberg: 26%
Kramer: 8%
Not sure: 14%

(Note that contrary to Donno’s views, it does NOT show him up by 20 pts. Maybe he should try some of those push polls he was thinking about that would put him up by 50 points.)

Senate General
Nelson: 54%
Ricketts: 36%
Not sure: 7%
Somebody else: 3%

Nelson: 61%
Stenberg: 26%
Not sure: 9%
Somebody else: 4%

Nelson: 64%
Kramer: 24%
Not sure: 8%
Somebody else: 4%

(Note that Petey has LOTS of work to do to get close to Earl B. Nelson. ‘Course, that’s also six months away…)

Governor’s Primary
Heineman: 44%
Osborne: 43%
Nabity: 5%
Not sure: 8%

(Note that dead heat. Should be a barnburner of a week. And who do you think Nabity is pulling votes from? And will the party switching Democrats make a difference?)

The poll was done by Rasmussen and polled 500 likely voters. More details can be seen directly at Rasmussen’s website here: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

Latest Views on Gov's race and 3rd Dist.

Another viewpoint on the Gov’s race, as well as the 3rd Dist race from Evans and Novak. Here’s the link, (Evans-Novak Political Report) and it’s reprinted below, as it’s unclear how long these stay up on the site. Now the real question is, who is giving these two Washington wonks their Nebraska political poop?

Governor 2006:
Nebraska: Betting against Rep. Tom Osborne (R) in Nebraska is akin to betting against Saint Patrick in Ireland. Yet even the latter had his setbacks, and we expect one for Osborne on May 9 primary day that will likely end his political career.

There is a significant amount of resentment over the former football coach's decision to run for governor against a popular incumbent from his own party. There are no major issues in the race that particularly recommend a change of horses, beyond Osborne's wild popularity throughout the state thanks to his years of coaching the Cornhuskers.

Osborne's run therefore smacks of vanity. Many believe that it results mainly from his own well-known weariness with being a congressman. Moreover, many Nebraskans feel Osborne is too old for the job. If victorious, he would turn 70 within a month of taking the oath of office. On the other hand, the primary in his district to replace him will drive up turnout in his part of the state, which could help him.

Gov. Dave Heineman (R), who replaced Gov. Mike Johanns (R) after he was named secretary of Agriculture, has pleased all the right people and has received positive press lately. He and Osborne are in a dead heat as the election approaches, which is already a bad sign for Nebraska's most revered resident. It's not likely that Osborne will suddenly enjoy a late surge, given that everyone knows who he is and likes him already. The only way for Osborne to win is for Heineman to make a tremendous gaffe.

The most recent published survey, which puts Heineman one point down, is of "registered" and not "likely" Republican voters -- which misrepresents the electorate in a way that likely overstates Osborne's support.

Compound this with the fact that the quixotic third candidate, Dave Nabity (R) may break into double digits. Nabity was recently endorsed by a farmers' group (a harmless endorsement for them, since he has no chance of winning) that is spending money to put him on the air. Their actual goal is to use the Nabity campaign as a front to push a local water issue. Leaning Heineman.

House 2006: Nebraska-3:
State Sen. Adrian Smith must be considered the frontrunner in the race for the Republican nomination to succeed Rep. Tom Osborne (R) in the Western half of Nebraska district. He faces Osborne aide John Hanson and Grand Island Mayor Jay Vavricek. The latter supposedly has money to put into his campaign, but has been loath so far to use it. Smith has raised the most money, and he is by far the most active of the three top candidates right now. The primary is May 9. Leaning Smith.

Stamps of Approval

Today the Lincoln Journal Star gave it’s endorsement to Tom Osborne over Dave Heineman and Dave Nabity (Tom Osborne is best leader for Nebraska – LJS – 4/26/06).

However, Osborne lost in another area. He claimed in the debate on Monday, that the Farm Bureau endorsed Heineman over him because he wouldn’t accept their PAC money. Today, the Farm Bureau refutes that claim, stating that Osborne’s assertion was “absolutely not true,” (Farm Bureau says Heineman earned support – LJS – 4/26/05).

Who knows how much attention voters pay to any of these endorsements? But it’s worth noting that TO, who most (like Leavenworth Street) thought would coast to victory, is having trouble shaking Dave Heineman. And the battle of endorsements shows that this race is not yet over…

Full of Beans?

In his Washington Post.com blog today, Chris Cillizza takes a look at the Nebraska Gov’s race, and notes how positive it has been – Osborne has the lead, and doesn’t need to be negative; Heineman can’t succeed going negative against such a popular figure as The Coach (Nebraska Gov: Will a Titan Be Rebuffed? – Wash. Post – 4/25/06).

But with just two weeks to go, polls showing the race neck and neck and endorsements flying everywhere, will it continue to be positive?

Throughout the race, Heineman has been touting his sale of Nebraska beans to Cuba. But yesterday, Osborne took a direct, unveiled cut at Heineman regarding those sales – essentially saying that they were not profitable for the Nebraskans selling the beans (as opposed to his own initiative selling beans to Iraq). Said the Lincoln Journal Star:

He compared the sale of 10,000 metric tons of beans there for $5 million to the sale of the same size order to Iraq earlier this year for $6.5 million — a sale he helped coordinate.“I guess I can compare beans to beans in those cases,” he said.Said Osborne of the Cuban sale: “I can’t see where that would have resulted in a profit.”

But the Nebraska bean salesman said:

…he could understand what Osborne was saying, “that the two dollar amounts were different.” But prices often change substantially from day to day and “we don’t lose money on any business deal.”

(Osborne hails sale of corn to Colombia – LJS – 4/25/06.)

This is notable. No one has complained about the new market opened up in Cuba. The bean salesmen apparently haven’t complained about the deal they got. Yet, some Osborne staffer did some math, and gave a zinger to his boss -- who made a very specific point to use it.

Maybe this hasn’t been in a TV or radio ad yet, but make no mistake: Osborne has gone negative. He does not want to lose to some underdog life-long political hack. And he will not go quietly.
As we continue to watch…

Ricketts gets LJS endorsement

No, you non-Lincolnite, not that LJS (though that would be a heckuva catch…). It’s the Lincoln Journal Star (Ricketts wins nod for GOP nomination – LJS – 4/25/06), which cites Ricketts’s business experience for giving him the nod. The fact that they gave their thumbs up to political virgin Petey (and his miserable hat) is impressive and should have his supporters and campaign fired up for the stretch run. People like to jump on the bandwagon, and this is no-doubt the one with the mo going into the final weeks.

Osborne is Burning

Word has it that Tom Osborne was LIVID that Dave Heineman got the endorsement of the Farm Bureau (Heineman gets Farm Bureau endorsement – OWH – 4/22/06).

Consider that TO represents the ag-dominant third district; serves on the House Ag Committee; and has revolved his entire political career around ag and rural development.
Note TO’s (steaming/frustrated) comment: "I'm not surprised at anything anymore."

(Should we look for Frank Solich’s endorsement of DH sometime soon? Are even stranger things ahead...)

Not the answer we were looking for...

From Don Walton in the LJS today:

Where do you like to vacation outside of Nebraska?
Ricketts: "Africa. I've climbed Kilimanjaro and gone on safari in the Serengeti."
Stenberg: "We like to vacation in Colorado at Copper Mountain and go driving on jeep trails."
Kramer: "We like to take the kids (two boys) to Panama to see grandmother, who lives on a farm."

(Candidate fun facts - LJS - 4/24/06)

Pete, the correct answer here was, "Kansas City to see a ball game with the kids." KC Pete. Nebraskans go to Kansas City. Not Tanzania...

Stenberg’s Race To Play Catch-Up

As posted below (and here), Don Stenberg has attacked the Pete Ricketts poll as a “push poll” – one that uses leading questions to boost its candidate’s numbers.

Traditionally, a push poll has a much more negative light – you add questions that are negative about your opponent (“would you be more likely to vote for Candidate A if you knew Candidate B beats his dog?”). The point is to send a message to voters, not really to poll at all. Stenberg argues that this is a “positive push poll” and because of it, the numbers aren’t legit.

But one would think that Ricketts would want accurate information out of his polls, and certainly has the money to do so. And I would doubt that the Omaha World Herald would publish poll results that they thought were inaccurate or obtained questionably. I’ll give them professional credit on that. And who’s to say that the info Donno has is even correct. Were the calls he questions even used in the poll results? (And by the way, do YOU know any supporter who would change their answer just to get rid of a pollster? Gimme a break.)

Donno’s letter rings false in so many other ways, it seems he "doth protest too much”, as it were…

First:
“The reality is, as nearly as we can tell, that we are in the lead by about 20 points.”

Oh REALLLY? Now please, tell me what YOU’RE basing that on Donny! I mean, at least Petey has a poll, maybe one that used methods you don’t like, but it’s based on something! This completely saps away the strength of your argument above.

Second:
“I can guarantee you that if the Stenberg campaign did a poll that way, it would show us ahead by 40 or 50 points.”

I’ll take that bet! 50 points? Why not just say a GAZILLION points…

Third:
“I trailed in a legitimate poll by 13 points with 10 days to go in the 1990 Attorney General primary and won 38 percent to 37 percent to 25 percent.”

So which is it Don? Are you ahead or are you behind?

Oh and by the way, I noticed that Mr. Stenberg is now officially the first to go negative in this campaign -- attacking Pete Ricketts by name in this e-mail. And I know that this didn’t just go to “supporters”. So Don, did you just break your own pledge? Will you refuse to debate yourself? These are things we want to know…

Finally this race has a little juice.

Stenberg Attacks Ricketts "Push Poll"

In response to the Pete Ricketts campaign poll, showing Ricketts up by 10 points over Don Stenberg, the Stenberg camp is emailing the following statement to supporters.

Leavenworth Street will be commenting soon, and invite the Ricketts and Kramer campaigns to comment as well. (If you email, we will post those comments in full.)

Stenberg for Senate 2006

April 20, 2006

Letter from Don: Entering the "Spin Zone."

With less than three weeks to go before the primary election, we are entering the "spin zone."

This is when competing campaigns all claim that their candidate is ahead in the polls, they have a great organization, they have great momentum, and so forth.

For several weeks now the Ricketts campaign has been making tens of thousands of "push poll" calls. These calls are so extensive that members of my campaign Treasurer's family have received these calls. Members of campaign staff's families have received these calls. The Ricketts campaign even called my brother, Neal Stenberg, with the Ricketts push poll.

On Wednesday, when the Ricketts push poll was released, I was being interviewed by the editor of a weekly newspaper in Northeast Nebraska. He asked me about the poll. I told him it was an invalid push poll. He smiled, nodded, and said, "Yes, I know. I received one of the push poll calls." Probably many of you did too.

Here's how the Ricketts push poll worked. They would call a registered voter and ask who he or she would vote for in the United States Senate race – Pete Ricketts, Dave Kramer, or Don Stenberg.

When the person said, "Don Stenberg," they would say something like, "If you knew Pete Ricketts was a fourth-generation Nebraskan, would you vote for him?" If the person said, "no," they would ask another question, such as, "if you knew Pete Ricketts was pro-life, would you vote for him?" If that didn't work, they asked still more questions.

I had several supporters call me and tell me they finally told the "pollster" they would vote for Ricketts just to get the annoying "pollster" off the phone. However, on election day, they will vote for Don Stenberg.

The Ricketts push poll was so questionable the Associated Press refused to publish it. They said it did not meet their standards.

The Omaha World Herald apparently has lower standards than the Associated Press and published the push poll as news. The Ricketts campaign claimed to be ahead by 10 points.

I can guarantee you that if the Stenberg campaign did a poll that way, it would show us ahead by 40 or 50 points.

The reality is, as nearly as we can tell, that we are in the lead by about 20 points.

However, with the election just two weeks from Tuesday, I am asking you to campaign for us as though we were 10 points behind. (I trailed in a legitimate poll by 13 points with 10 days to go in the 1990 Attorney General primary and won 38 percent to 37 percent to 25 percent.)

Our radio ads started last Monday and some of our TV ads will start this coming Monday. Please make a financial contribution today to support this effort.

Also, please put a yard sign in your yard, help us put up yard signs, volunteer to help with our early voter program, and encourage your friends and neighbors to vote for Don Stenberg on May 9. Word of mouth is still the best advertising (and it doesn't cost millions of dollars).

Thank you for your support. May God bless.
Don

You Can't HANDLE the Truth

Remember in “A Few Good Men”, when Demi Moore’s character is in court, and after her objection is overruled, she “strenuously objects” (again overruled) – later to be mocked by her fellow attorney?

Well that’s what came to mind when I saw Don Stenberg’s camp’s reaction to the Pete Ricketts polls that showed Ricketts up by ten points. Their reax: they “vehemently rejected” the results (Ricketts leads in poll released by campaign – OWH – 4/20/06).

Oh realllllllly?

Not only do you reject them, but you vehemently reject them? And in any case, is there a basis for your rejection? Bad questions? Wrong timing? Too small a sample? Wrong area? What? Their reason:

"We think it's a last-ditch effort by a campaign which has spent millions on TV ads that, by all indications, aren't connecting with voters," said Stenberg aide Dan Parsons.

So does Donno think that Ricketts is LYING about the poll results? That’s what one gathers from this statement. At least David Kramer’s camp makes the good point that he hasn’t begun airing his ads yet, and that when he does the numbers will change (though it’s probably too little too late for DK).

But really, now that the Stenberg Campaign Cruiser has come to a screeching halt, it’s nice to see that he’s getting involved in the election.

Ricketts Way Ahead in Senate Race

The worst kept secret in the Senate race right now is that Pete Ricketts has a commanding lead over Don Stenberg and David Kramer.

According to internal polling by the Ricketts camp (and Lord knows he’s spent the money for a decent poll) the race looks like this:

Ricketts: 43%
Stenberg: 33%
Kramer: 7%

And then looky-loo who’s come out of his campaign bunker! According to the AP, No-Show-Donno has stated he’s willing to debate now! (Stenberg says he's open to debates – GII – 4/19/06) While Ricketts is keeping positive, who could blame him if he told Donny where he can put his campaign pledge…

And I wouldn’t have gone for two, either…

The Politico Roundup!

Tom Osborne has now said that he WOULD HAVE vetoed the OPS school district legislation that Dave Heineman signed. (Osborne declares opposition to schools bill – OWH – 4/18/06) Of course, a week out, that’s a little easier to say, now isn’t it? Would have been nice to hear these comments the day the bill was passed in the unicameral, no? Or to hear TO’s comments, or maybe even a POSITION before that time. TO says he wants to be a mediator on the issue, but he forgets that the Governor has to SIGN a bill. Maybe even take LEADERSHIP on the position – not just carry water back and forth. Crazy ideas, huh?

Adrian, Adrian, Adrian. Ol’ Adrian Smith, 3rd Dist. Congressional candidate just keeps it coming. This time, in an OWH interview, he was asked his position on CAFTA (the Central American Free Trade Agreement). (Smith stresses youth, experience – OWH – 4/18/06) While initially telling the reporter he was against it, he later called back to say he was for it. This is a major piece of legislation (remember NAFTA?), and one would think he’d have his position nailed down. Now the only question is, who fed him his position? Lee Terry or the Club for Growth? We’ve been bullish on Adrian’s chances in this race, from our view on Leavenworth Street. Now we’re starting to wonder…

If you haven’t read the candidate positions in the recent LJS interviews (and if anyone can find the link from yesterday, please send it), please dig it up. Then read each interview with the names blocked out, and tell me who said what. Can’t do it, can you? When every candidate sounds the same (and I mean the saaaaaame), how do to get your name out there? What position can you take? Someone HAS to go negative, and soon.

Our favorite race of this primary season? Why, Clerk of the District Court, of course! We’ve got the Prince of Leavenworth Street, Tom Barrett gunning for this $83K/yr peach! (Hey Tommy -- or should we say Mary -- when’s that website actually going active?) We’ve got Trish “Return to Sender” Lanphier. (Same on the website to you Trish. Uh, that election is just around the corner…) And then we have some chick named Barbara Carpenter who’s worked in the office for like 25 years, has worked at every level and understands what’s going on with upgrades to the systems (yet has, hmmm, an “interesting “ do. Think “weeping willow”…). Anywho, I’m sure she won’t win. (But Barb, uh, how about fleshing out that resume just a touch, so we can actually see what you’ve done in that 25 years at the Clerk’s office.)

And finally, for those of you scoring at home:
Dan Welch vs. Ernie Chambers
Round 1: Welch
Round 2: Chambers (by a mile)
Round 3? (And Frank Brown guarantees there will be a Round 3…)

Separated at Birth - Bridge to Nowhere!

Well, the designs for the Bridge to Nowhere are in! (City gets three bridge designs – OWH – 4/13/06) That’s right, a pedestrian bridge from Gallup, or where ever, over to the Council Bluffs levee. You read that right. I’ve always thought to myself, “Self, that levee sure is nice over there yonder. If only I could WALK over there.” Well, for just 19 million smackers, my wish has come true. And we have Bob “If I can’t walk on water, I’ll walk over it” Kerrey to thank, along with Earl B. Nelson and the good Mayor of Omaha, Paul Landow… I mean Mike Fahey. In that spirit, and with the designs presented, Leavenworth Street gives you, the Bridge Designs – Separated at Birth

Design #1 and Cell Towers!


Design #2 and Power Lines!

and...

Design # 3 and Mickey D's!

What a country!

While watching the immigration protests outside the Capitol in Lincoln, State Senator, and 3rd Dist. Congressional candidate, Adrian Smith had this to say:

"We're probably the only country in the world that allows this kind of demonstration.”
(3rd District candidates: Reform needed – GII – 4/11/06)

Now we don’t mean to bash someone for an off-hand comment…but geeeeeeez! Have ya watched any television lately Adrian? Are you familiar with what’s going on in France? And they practically have a mass-protest-a-day in Germany. Just to help you, here are a few images from France, Germany, the UK, Brazil, Canada and Australia:

Senate GOP Election ODDS

Today Don Walton gave the latest “polls” on the GOP Gov’s race (Immigration holds spotlight in Nebraska – LJS – 4/10/06).

On Leavenworth Street, we are updating the ODDs on the Senate GOP race.
(Note that this is who we think WILL win the primary, not who is ahead in the polls right now.)

Pete Ricketts 5:2
Don Stenberg 3:1
Dave Kramer 10:1

Why the change from our earlier odds that had No-Show-Donno way down?
We overestimated the influence Dave Kramer had as GOP Chair (except, apparently, over state senators) and we overestimated newbie Pete Ricketts’s ability to buy enough ad time to lock things up quickly. Let’s take a closer look:

Ricketts
Petey has given 100% commitment to this campaign. He has financed it heavily. He’s battered the airwaves with his ads. He’s swung at least one key endorsement. Pete now probably has to push the message that AG Jon Bruning was delivering last week: PR is the only one who can beat EBN. If he can pound that message into the brain of the voters, he just may get them to fill in his oval on Election Day. Of course Pete’s lack of a government record and name ID are his biggest foes. He has probably gotten over the hump, but still has a tough road to hoe up to Election Day.

Stenberg
His ability to cruise along on his name recognition is working so far. Keeping his name in the news on the school and abortion issues has helped him to continue to look like a player. His refusal to debate, while a shrewd move, could still be his undoing. By not showing up at the Pete & Dave Show, Donny is trying to give the impression that the other two aren’t up to his level. Being the only one who’s held office, he can claim that. Though Chuck Hagel hadn’t run for office either (and/but we’re not claiming that Pete has CH’s gravitas). Can The Stenbergermeister continue to coast to victory on his name ID? This may depend on how much the Ricketts camp floors the gas. And it also will depend on how much GOP voters really want to beat Earl B. Nelson in the general…

Kramer
At this point, DK would be best to simply keep positive and position himself for another race. Like Dave Nabity, he has no chance to win, but he’s committed himself so much that he’s not going to quit. We all know this won’t be his last race. The best thing DK could do is make sure he leaves a positive impression with the voters for his eventual return. Is this in DK’s nature -- to play nice and wait ‘til next time? We’ll have to wait and see on that…

This is another in a series of ODDS for the various races in Nebraska this year. You are encouraged to submit your reasoning why you think these odds should be changed.

Note: These odds are for amusement purposes only, and we checked these picks with that guy in Bellevue who nailed the Final Four, even though he thought he was picking GW instead of George Mason. Just so you know, we haven’t confused Pete Ricketts with Joe Ricketts. If any other campaign uses that line, you owe us cold hard cash.

Welch v. Chambers, Round 2!

Step right up for (today’s) Main Event!
Meet the Contender!
The Young Turk of Omaha politics!
Taking a principled position…
City Council President, Dan “Taking a Stand” Welch!

And the Champ!
The Ulysses of the Unicameral!
The Knight of North Omaha!
The man with his Finger on the Filibuster!
The one, the only…
State Senator Ernie “So you really wanna take ME on?” Chambers!

Councilman Welch decided some time ago, that Senator Chambers’s name was not worthy of a small Omaha park. Welch sited many of Chamber’s provocative statements and stances – particularly a few anti-Catholic and Jewish ones.

Dan is now trying to advance legislation for the NoDo stadium project in the legislature, and who’s standing directly in his path? Ernie!
(Again, Chambers holds key – OWH – 4/7/06)

Who will blink first?

Is Dan the Man willing to let the park name slide in order to get this major economic project through? (This was an extremely principled decision he made, on the name.)

Is Ernie the Legislator willing to let a major economic development that could benefit his district come to a halt, just so he can have his name on a dinky park (and spurn Welch)?

It will be fun to see how this one plays out.
Let’s have some input on the ol’ message board here (can be anonymous) on how you think this one turns out!
Compromise? Stalemate? Or does one side or the other bring out bigger guns, whatever they may be?

Ya gotta luv the local politics!

"Major" endorsement?

Bruning.
Huh.
Oh well.
OK, we get it. It’s the present AG endorsing Petey over the former AG.
Swell. (Though at least John-boy took the Leavenworth Street line that Petey is the one who can beat Nelson...)
But, “Major”?
We’ll refer you to the previous post, on that point…

Major League?

So who could the MAJOR endorsement for Pete Ricketts be?
By all standards, there are only two, maybe three real endorsements that would mean anything:
1) Mike Johanns
2) Chuck Hagel
3) Tom Osborne

Now, Johanns probably has to get the Administration’s OK to do anything like this, and they probably don’t do it as a rule, in a primary anyway. So he’s likely out.

Chuck also, being the sitting Senator, probably can’t endorse someone in this, lest he end up serving, with someone in his own party, who he DIDN’T endorse in the primary. That would be just a little awkward (though Chuckwood DID endorse Big Dave Heineman early, so it’s not beyond him…)

Finally there’s TO. Now being in his own race, he probably doesn’t want to stick his neck out for someone else. But hopefully TO would realize that the only candidate who can beat Earl B. Nelson is Pete Ricketts. If Dave Kramer hadn’t been the flame-throwing party chair, and had a little more cash, he could go places. But it would probably take another campaign for him to shed uber-partisan label. And No-Show-Donno has proven, repeatedly, that he can’t win this state-wide race. Of course, that’s not to say that he can’t win the primary.

Which is the point. He-who-will-not-debate has a very good chance to win the primary. And if he does, it will be six more years of Senator Earl. Does Osborne care? Is he willing to spend some of his political capital before he even wins his own primary?

I guess we’ll see who Ricketts comes up with this afternoon.
But if it ain’t one of the Big Three above…well…it won’t be “major”.

Late and breaking Petey news...

According to today's edition of ABC's "The Note":

Pete Ricketts (R-NE) is set to receive a "major endorsement" at 3:30 pm ET
in Lincoln, NE.

NJ ♥s PR

From Chuck Todd’s “On the Trail” in the National Journal online (For The GOP, Some Diamonds In The Rough - 4/5/06)

Four candidates in particular have caught our attention: Mike McGavick in Washington, Mike Bouchard in Michigan, Pete Ricketts in Nebraska and John Raese in West Virginia....

The cream of this crop is McGavick...

After McGavick, Nebraskans have a very solid Republican recruit in Pete Ricketts. He still has a primary to deal with that could, of course, cut his potential for stardom short. But something tells us that $4-5 million (the amount of money it appears he is on pace to spend in the primary) is enough to buy a primary victory in the Cornhusker State.

Once in the general, Ricketts might be the only one with a message that gives him even a remote shot at knocking off the elusive Sen. Ben Nelson (D). Ricketts essentially plans to go after Nelson's strength (he's a non-ideological pragmatist) and try to make it a weakness. For instance, Ricketts will try to claim that Nelson's push for Nebraska pork isn't leadership. It's not the easiest message to sell, but running against Nelson isn't easy, and Ricketts seems genuine in his ability to sell the message...

It's more than likely that none of these four will win, especially if the landscape remains as it is today: slanted a great deal toward the Democrats. And frankly, we've seen solid recruiting classes go down in defeat even when the wind was just barely blowing in the wrong direction. Just look at 2002 and 2004 -- perhaps the best two recruiting cycles in the history of the DSCC. From Ron Kirk, Jeanne Shaheen and Alex Sanders to Erskine Bowles, Betty Castor and Inez Tenenbaum, Democrats had a lot of interesting recruits who just couldn't win against a mild headwind.

And that's the problem facing McGavick, Bouchard, Ricketts and Raese. It may not be a mild headwind come November; it could be a hurricane. Still, if any of these four win this cycle, they'll become instant players.