Do you recall?

You know that Leavenworth Street does a year-end round up of political quotes. One of our favorite (if not extremely labor intensive) posts.

Well, Noelle Obermeyer of the anti-Recallers gave us a hit for November:

“We've had people call back and say, 'I signed the petition, but I didn't know it was to recall the mayor.'”

Yowza.

Noelle, here is what we would like you to do.

Make a list of all the individuals who give such asinine remarks, because we are heading to their homes and ripping their voter registration cards away from them. If some court finds that to be unconstitutional, then we will plant some illegally downloaded Justin Bieber mp3s on them, charge them with a felony and yank their voting privileges that way.

These people shouldn’t be allowed to own bank cards, let alone be directing who should be running our Republic.

Oh, and by the way Noelle, THAT’s your best situation for why the Anti’s need more time?

Heck if I’m judge Bataillon I would throw you out of court and let you know that, tough luck, that one goes down as a “Signed the Petition”.

***

And we all saw the OWH’s analysis of the signatures. Of course the OWH has their own bias going into this, and clearly are just trying to influence the court here. Let’s not pretend that they, or anyone else involved in this entire matter, is above reproach.

And then the OWH also published their, “Looky who signed!” article. They focus on Dave Nabity and some restaurateurs.

Then at the end they note KFAB jocks (spinning the hits of the 60’s, 70’s & 80’s!) Tom Becka, Gary Sadlemyer and Jim Rose.

So, while we haven’t had the time (or inclination) to scan the 39,000 names for everyone we can think of, we noticed they didn’t list any World Herald employees that may have signed.

You know, for a little balance.

Or maybe they just didn’t realize that their signature was to recall the Mayor...

***

And speaking of media guys against Mayor, how about Aida Amoura freezing out KMTV for some bad story, but not the KFAB guys for trying to kick out the Mayor?

Or maybe they’ve already been frozen, and it just doesn’t matter.

Or maybe she doesn’t want to take on the 50,000 watt blowtorch that is KFAB.

In any case, we are already enjoying the Amoura Press Shop’s efforts at outreach.

Exhibit A: The Mayor’s hostage “Thanksgiving” tape.

Did you see that?

ICYMI, please do take a look:



(Btw, way to keep it in the family Aida!)

That’s some serious teleprompter reading. Next to him, you can see Mrs. Suttle blinking out the morse-code for “Rescue Me Now!”.

And the Mayor’s message? “Gee whiz, I’m just working SO hard that I have had a hard time getting my message out to you about how awesome I am!”

Reallllly Aida? My that’s some subtle script you put together there (no pun intended).

It’s right up there with the interview response to the “what are your faults” question. “Oh, sometimes I just work too hard and too late.”

How about some Homer Simpson honesty?  “Well, it takes me a long time to learn anything, I'm kind of a goof-off, little stuff starts disappearing from the workplace...”

Or, “I lie to the voters in my campaigns, I raise taxes instead of finding other alternatives, I make questionable hires..”


Looking forward to some court news tomorrow!

Gobble Gobble Gobble!

Do you need a pre-Turkey appetizer of politics while you throw back some Joe and listen to the parades trundle past Macy’s?

Of course you do!

***

First, KMTV tells us that brand-spanking-new Communications Director for Omaha Mayor Jim Suttle has banned them! They’ve been banned! (Well, apparently from any interviews, anyway.)

And for what?

For releasing public information.

Yup.

Seems KMTV reported on salaries of City departments heads and the Mayor. So, of course, Aida Amoura-Rezac, a former reporter herself, blackballed ‘em.

Now some will argue that no one is watching KMTV anyway (zing!).  But really, is this the way to go into a campaign? Pissing off the local media?  (And of course that is beyond the whole outright ridiculousness of Amoura-Rezac-Gerard's actions.

There is an old saying about picking fights with people who buy ink by the barrel. There must be a similar one regarding people who buy video tapes by the crate.

***

But of course that’s only a lead-in to the news that Suttle has filed a for a restraining order in District Court because he wants seventy-five -- 75! -- additional days to fight the Recall signature review process.

An additional two and a half months? That’s some slow counters.

Oh, but it’s basically so they can try to bitch and moan about every single signature possible. The anti-Recallers claim that people weren’t -- gasp! -- told the whole truth when they signed the petitions.

Is that riiiiight???

Well, we have an actual photo and video of a certain Mayoral candidate holding a sign telling voters that he was going to lower property taxes.

How many extra days to we get to contest that?

Oh yeah...fifteen.

Keep counting Phippsy. Keep counting.

***

Michigan Senator Debbie “Florence Henderson” Stabenow got the Agriculture Committee Chairpersonship -- instead of Ben Nelson.

Some had suggested that Nelson would get the Ag Chair in order to keep him from switching parties. Now that he didn’t get it, we will see him marching down the aisle with Mike Johanns and the gang right?

Or not.

***

Hey Leavenworth Street readers, on this day of giving thanks, we would like to tell you how thankful we are for you coming to our blog and reading and writing yourself!

Leavenworth Street has grown in readership in each of the four years we have been around, and we are looking to embiggen in year number five as well.. (With some changes? Hmm....)

So as you fall into that tryptophan coma, dream of a place where politics is discussed, fun is made and a good read is had by all.

And then come back to Leavenworth Street to experience it in real life.

Gobble-gobble!

Jumping the gun

First we just would like to let everyone know that, Yes, Coach P. called us up and screamed at us on Saturday night. But we are OK with it. And after talking to our high school blogging coach, we want you to know that we are not quitting. OK? OK.

***

So, we thought it interesting that Robyn Tysver of the OWH put together a list of Omaha Mayoral maybes, if a) the recall signatures go through and b) Suttle then loses a recall vote.

A little hasty of the OWH, no? Sounds like something WE would have done, right?

Well, nice to see that the newspaper is catching up, and we appreciate their insight.

So here is what we think of their list, and others who should or shouldn’t be on it:


1) Hal Daub

Unless someone tells us otherwise, we have to assume Hal is in.

First, interesting that the OWH has changed his name from “Hal Daub” to “Hal Daub, 69”. Very subtle there OWH (pun not intended).

But here are our thoughts on a potential Daub campaign: Hal once again will have to combat any preconceived notions of himself and his personality, etc. He will have to run as “the man you know” -- meaning a guy who can get the job done.

Differently though, Daub will have to completely spell out what he would/will do differently as Mayor to turn things around. He will have to let voters vote on the “Hal Daub Plan” -- instead of simply voting on “Hal Daub, the person”.

It will really need to be a “if you want a ‘perhaps and maybe’ plan, then vote for the other guys. But you did that with Suttle.  If you want to implement my plan, I’m your guy.” Otherwise Daub will fall victim to the “he’s a mean ogre” campaign that Suttle ran. He will need to be specific.

The risk there is that someone else just does a “me too!” on his plan. But that is the sort of risk he will have to take.

2) Dave Nabity

Again, unless someone says otherwise, we will assume he is in.

Nabity has the benefit of being Hal Daub-esque, without many of the negatives that Daub has built up through the years. But if Nabity is Daub-Lite, would voters be more likely to go with the Real Thing? It could possibly come down to that.

**Update**

All of that being said, a commenter noted that the City Charter states that a candidate for Mayor must have lived in the city "for five consecutive years immediately prior to taking office..."

We don't know all the details of his residency, but this may be an issue for him. Any legal beagles can let us know more on this.

**Update update**

It is our understanding that Nebraska state law takes precedence over the city charter, and that the Nebraska law says Mayor has a six month residency requirement.  This being the case, we understand that Nabity would meet the requirements.

3) Pete Festersen

If the Democrats need to get behind someone, it is probably Festersen. But though he has made some votes, he is still essentially an unknown to voters.

He was unopposed for his City Council race, so didn’t have to really campaign. And like it or not, someone has to carry the stink of the Fahey years and decisions.  Festersen, a top Fahey aide, will have a a target on his back for all of that.

The relatievely young Festersen (40) hasn’t had to face up to that yet, but in a Mayoral race, absolutely would. That could pose a real problem.

4) Scott Hazelrigg

We have put Hazelrigg on our various lists in the past, but we found it interesting that Tysver included him in her list. There had to be someone who suggested him or pushed him, because otherwise he is quite an unknown to make the big list.

Hazelrigg has had the backing of Suzie Buffet and her deepest pockets for a while, and there are certainly many who think, “he’s a smart, good looking guy; he is what Omaha needs!”

Except that Hazelrigg is a complete unknown in most of the city. He doesn’t have much to hang his hat on, and has a few demerits in his career. He also just took the gig at the Omaha Home for Boys, in a position that usually is long term.

Could be just a trial balloon. But keep an eye on this one.

5) Jim Vokal

Is Vokal willing to give it another shot? He recently started a new gig himself, and has kept himself active on the MECA board.

But someone like Vokal would not just be able to decide to run and “go for it”. He would need to have immediate financial backing and political support to make him a front runner.

If he was the least bit half-hearted or unsupported, he would have a hard time.

6) Dan Welch

It is our understanding that former councilman Welch is looking at this. But we would be surprised if he pulled the trigger here, in the end.

7) Tom White

After the “shellacking” that White took (to use the President’s words), we would doubt that Dems would back him so soon. We think White will need to take a break before coming back.

And now those left off the list.

8) P.J. Morgan

He wasn’t listed as a yes or a no, but Morgan has gotta be thinking about it. Just elected -- unopposed -- to the Douglas County Board, Morgan is politically “back”. Though the DCB is a much easier decision than Mayor.

Morgan is someone who could immediately gather the funds for a run. But, like it or not, Morgan will still have to have a heart-to-heart with voters on why he suddenly quit the job back in ‘94. Yes, we understand that it was a “personal” decision. But in this very public job, Morgan would have to be much more forthcoming for voters to trust him again.

Or is 17 years long enough for voters to forget?

9) Brad Ashford

Tysver lists Ashford among the “not going to run”.

Don’t you believe it.

Right now Ashford is the face of the anti-Recall campaign, and he couldn’t come out now and say “but just in case...” People would immediately question his sincerity, right?

But if Suttle is out, look for Ashford to suddenly say, “well, for the good of the City...”

He will position himself as a “Republican who can work with Democrats”. But of course, the pro-higher taxes, pro-abortion, pro-gun ban Ashford is really the face of the word “RINO” in the political dictionary.

Ashford would simply be Jim Suttle with a wig and glasses. Or at least that’s the way his opponents would/should frame him.

10) Someone Else!

The way things stand now, this race has the potential to be really wide open. If enough credible names get in, second place could be a battle. So if someone with the right backing decides to play, everything could change.

Stay tuned.

***

And hey, we haven’t forgotten about you non-Omahans! We have a little statewide news.

First, remember Pay Flynn? Well, he announced quite a while back that he was running for Senate in 2012.

And not to be left out on all the discussions, he announced it again. He is now (surprise!) trying to position himself as the Tea Party candidate. Watch that drum get banged repeatedly the next few years.

Then there is a name that is currently being floated around as an alternative to Jon Bruning:

Rex Fisher, President of Qwest, who is retiring this year.

Fisher was recently featured in the OWH, and has been mentioned as a potential President for the Omaha Metropolitan Utilities District board.

But lately certain business types have been floating his name for Senate.

The main question now is if Fisher is really interested in that job.

And then there is the fact that Bruning is efficiently locking up support in the business community on his own.

Things are still interesting here, nonetheless.

They’re IN

The signatures are in.
Or at least they might as well be.

The OWH is reporting that “they have learned” that the Mayor Suttle Recall Committee will be turning in 37,000 some signatures.

We were informed on Wednesday that they had somewhere in the neighborhood of 32K sigs -- so if you had the “Under” (Noelle Obermeyer, we are looking in your direction ), you lose.

Speaking of Ms. Obermeyer (because if you have the opportunity to have a student be your campaign spokesperson, you always say yes, right?), she is posturing that the anti-Recallers will,

“...use any and all efforts that we have to ensure that the recall effort doesn't go through.”

Geez Noelle. Jeremy Aspen and the gang might want to think about an armored escort into the Courthouse.

What she really means though is “Lawyer Up!”

They’re still gearing to knock off more than 10,000 of those signatures, and are apparently hoping to depose at least that many. Though Election Commissioner Dave Phipps is already hinting that this will be tough to do, based on past counting procedures.

We are guessing that the Antis would be better off spending their money on the upcoming campaign -- but when you have unlimited resources (cough...Dick Holland...cough) maybe you don’t care.

You can come back later to see what the official unofficial turn-in numbers are.
Or not.

Or just, Go Huskers!

3PM Friday

At 3:00 PM today (Friday) the Mayor Suttle Recall Committee will submit their gathered signatures to the Douglas County Election Commissioner.

As we (1st-ed-ly) noted earlier this week, the Recallers state they have enough signatures to initiate an up-or-down vote on Suttle. Channel 6 is reporting that they are looking at having 30% more than the 26,000+ sigs, anticipating that as many as that could be thrown out.  (If they have 33,000 signatures, they’ll need a lower percentage than that.)

Ah but hang on! Creighton Law Student, and anti-Recall spokesperson, Noelle Obermeyer says they are ready to depose the petitioners! (Assuming, of course, that she has taken Trial Practice at school.) So we are guessing the 15 day review process could get stretched out muuuuuch later.

(And for a chuckle, be sure to check out the undercover video they apparently provided to Channel 7.  Or maybe it's of the Blair Witch.  Be sure to take some Dramamine first.)
We still think that’s an awful lot of signatures they would hope to get rid of -- and note that in these types of cases, courts generally try not to go against voters’ intentions. So, for instance, if a petitioner didn’t read the entire statement, but the person still signed, a judge isn’t likely to throw it out.

But who knows? Anything can still happen right?

And does Jim Suttle benefit from the extended time to prep for a vote? Really depends on what sort of things happen between then and now, right?

***

In any case, Mayor Suttle is now saying that he won’t resign, if the signatures come in. His reasoning?

“I made a pact with the voters to serve four years...”

Really? A pact? When was this? And it was only with “the voters”? So not just with all the citizens of Omaha? It was with a subsection, i.e., just those who voted?

Well then, that must have been during the campaign sometime.

But a pact? Is that like a promise?

Like the one to lower property taxes?

We have so many questions...

***

We will update sometime after 3:00.

See you then!

Word on the Street: Recallers have the signatures

Leavenworth Street has learned, albeit not officially, that the Mayor Suttle Recall Committee has obtained more than the 26,643 signatures needed to force a vote on a recall of Omaha Mayor Jim Suttle.

We have been told that when the Recallers turn in the signatures on Friday, the numbers will be around 31 - 32,000 -- more than 5,000 over the needed number.

There have been standard rumblings from the anti-Recallers that some or many signatures are or will be invalid. But 5,000 of them? That’s tough.

If it is then found that enough signatures were collected, Mayor Suttle would have five days to resign -- and save the expense of the recall vote.

If he does not resign, a vote will be held 30 to 45 days later.

And at that point, who gets off their duffs to vote?
Those who want to save him, or those who want him out?

And if he is out, who is in?

We could have an exciting political season coming...

Monday meanderings

Can Jon Bruning be beaten in a three-way race?

Omaha attorney, and former Senate candidate, Dave Kramer tells the AP that he thinks it is possible.

Of course anything is possible.

The theory is that Bruning would be joined by two other relatively strong candidates -- in this scenario, Don Stenberg and Mike Foley (who gave Don Walton a “maybe, maybe not”) -- in the 2012 GOP primary.

We would agree that, of course, in a three-way race the vote is going to be more dilluted. But there is no particular reason to think that votes for Foley would necessarily come from Bruning to give Stenberg a win, as Kramer hints.

Frankly, it could be just as plausible that the Attorneys General could split the AG votes, thus giving Foley a tilt.  Or that anti-Bruning votes are split between Foley and Stenberg, giving Bruning an easy layup.

Then again this discussion is all in a vacuum and does not really mean much.

What are the issues? Who is getting their message out? Who knows?

The best point made in the article is that if Ben Nelson does not run, the candidate list may very well change -- to possibly include a Jeff Fortenberry or Lee Terry. Now THAT would shake things up.

And just to round things out, Kramer threw this one out:

"If Ben is the nominee in 2012, whoever his opposing candidate is will be scrutinized like they've never been scrutinized before. Ben's task will be to tear down whoever his opponent is _ and he'll do it. There will not be a nook or a cranny not explored."

Now kiddies, Kramer here is making an oh-so-subtle hint that maybe one of the candidates could have background issues to be examined. We will go further to say that DK is suggesting that maybe GOP voters should tilt towards someone more squeaky clean.  You probably haven 't heard the last of this.

FYI readers: This primary may not be pretty.

***

In the mean time, Bruning has Shane Osborn as a campaign chairman. Good to see Shane staying involved, and good for Bruning to quickly gather his team.

And Ben Nelson tells us that when he votes for Harry Reid as Majority Leader, it really means that he is “independent”. Got that?

***

Lots of Recall circulators on the main streets across Omaha over the weekend. (But were there any at the Qwest Center before or after the Creighton game on Sunday? Would have seemed like a prime spot to be...)

Note that the opposition has gone from, “they won’t get enough” to “they’re illegal!”. Of course those protests are anecdotal, and haven’t proved to be official yet. If the Recallers fail to get enough, we doubt it will be because Wayne Dwops from Keeffaulin, HD signed the petition eight times.

Watch for hints from each side that they’re going into the campaign-vote mode.

***

Be sure to follow our Tweets at Twitter.com/LeavenworthSt for the occasional update.
(It's what all the cool kids are doing...)

Friday machinations

We keep reading, via our news service, that Republicans are trying to get Ben Nelson to switch parties.

We just don’t see it.

Not that Republicans won’t try. But we just don’t see someone like Nelson switching parties.

Of course it could only come about if Republicans could wrest control of the Senate. But even then, what does it do? It would simply force the President to bust out his veto pen more often.

In the mean time, what would it do for Nelson?

We highly doubt it would affect Jon Bruning’s plans to take him on -- a’la Arlen Specter’s intra-party defeat in Pennsylvania. We don’t see Nebraska Republicans suddenly embracing Ben Nelson.

And in any case, there are now rumblings that Democrats might award Nelson Chairmanship of the Ag Committee as a gift for staying a Democrat.

Which really would be the Nelson M.O. Straddle the fence, being coy to each side, until one or the other tries to buy you off.

Nelson mouthman, Jake Thompson said that Nelson “has no interest in changing parties. He is and always will be an independent voice for Nebraska.”

Uh...Nelson is an “Independent” now, Jake? What does your statement have to do with switching parties?

Come January, we still expect to see Nelson with a (D) next to his name.

And not an R...or an I.

***

Though there are now stories that Nelson may cave and back some of the Republican plans to repeal some of the Health Care legislation.

Of course this is comical for any number of reasons.  But it would, or could, indicate that Nelson is more serious about running in 2012 than anything else.

If he's not running, why bother?

If he is, he will never be able to buy himself cover, but we can see him try.

***

So Chuck Hagel thinks two years is too short a time to judge the President?

Funny how Hagel was OK judging Pennsylvania U.S. Senate candidate -- and Senator-elect -- Pat Toomey, opting to endorse his Democrat opponent Joe Sestak.

Oh, but Hagel doesn’t have a chance of being in Toomey’s cabinet...

***

While the OWH is “officially” against the Mayor Recall -- they’ll still let you know where all of the petition signing spots are.

Some recallers think their numbers are a slam-dunk right now. Though we doubt they would be spending their cash on circulators if they didn’t have to.   Could be close.

***

Keep it going Huskers!

Veterans Day 2010

Thank you to all of our Veterans, on Veterans Day today.

Take a moment to remember our Vets today, and if you get the chance, thank one in person.

***

And a story and info here about the Veterans History Project, being pushed now by Mike Johanns, among others.

Will Nelson stick around for 2012?

Hopefully by now you have seen the poll that Senator Ben Nelson’s spokesdude, (former OWH reporter) Jake Thompson is so pumped about.

It shows that...

• 55% of Nebraskans think Ben Nelson should be replaced in 2012
• Nelson would lose to Jon Bruning 50% - 35%
• Jon Brunings “Favorable” rating is 53%

But Thompson is pumped that Nelson’s Favorable is 50%.

Rock on Jake. Rock on.

***

So that leaves the follow-up question: Will Ben Nelson bother with 2012?

Hmm.

In 2012 Nelson will be 71 years old.

The Washington Post recently speculated that he has not really been raising money on par with a “serious” candidate for re-election.

Oh sure Nelson says he is running.
But then adds the caveat that he has not made his final decision.

In the mean time, the LJS’s Don Walton is writing features about Tony Raimondo on Election Day.

And then there is still the ghost of Bob Kerrey looming out there, still wanting to stay in politics.

It is enough to make you wonder, eh?

***

In the mean time, we have heard a number of candidate rejections for a Senate campaign in the past few days.

All of the Congressional delegation, out.
Speaker Mike Flood out (hey, we didn’t even know he was in!).
Walton gave Pete Ricketts a “nope”.

That leaves, along with Bruning...
Don Stenberg?
Mike Foley?
And then, state Senator Deb Fischer (of Valentine)? (Really?)

Who knows?

Problem for any other candidates is that if they sit back at this point, Bruning will have a giant lead on them, financially. Well, he will no matter what happens.

Frankly, there is a decent chance that the road to the nom will be plowed clean for Bruning.

Stenberg way feel, “why the hell not”, but does he have a shot? Geez...

Oh sure, it’s a long road, and lots could change and all that.

Then again, maybe not.

Who can challenge Bruning?

With Attorney General Jon Bruning’s announcement of an “exploratory committee” for U.S. Senate run, we will look at who we think else has a chance.

Because, with $600,000 coming from his old 2008 Senate warchest, you have to think that Bruning is driving the candidate bus right now. Everyone else will be passengers who must wrest control from Bruning if they want the win.

So who are some of the potential riders?

Well...

Don Stenberg
Don is the next name everyone yells after Bruning. A former Attorney General himself, Stenberg has made no secret of his desire to use his current new post as State Treasurer as a step stool for a higher gig -- Governor or Senator.

But did you know that Stenberg has run -- and lost -- THREE Senate campaigns? Is he willing for this to be number four? Maybe he is. And maybe he thinks he can beat Bruning. But if we’re handicapping early (and, well, it looks like we are) we just don’t see GOP primary voters choosing Stenberg over Bruning.

Stranger things have happened, but...well. We will move on.

Jeff Fortenberry
Fort is someone who you would think could pose a real challenge to Bruning. He is popular (in his District anyway), young, and could go hair to hair in any debate with Bruning.

But, does Fort have it in him? Bruning is known to be such a hard-core campaigner as to maybe be reckless. Can Fort compete with that? And can Fort raise the money needed for a statewide race? Bruning has done this statewide numerous times, including having a solid Omaha business base.

Fortenberry is not known to be a solid fundraiser and may not have the stomach for a statewide race. Not to mention, he may just be comfortable and satisfied (for now) with his House gig. He will be in the majority now and can enjoy some of the benefits that go with that.

So we will guess right now that Fort wouldn’t get it, but still wouldn’t put it past him, and wouldn’t count him out. Hedging our bets? Bets hedged.

Pete Ricketts
Pete seems like the next most logical candidate, considering he took on Nelson last time, and has kept himself very much involved in Nebraska politics.

He formed the Platte Institute think tank, the Plains State Legal Foundation and funds Nebraska Watchdog. He is the state National Committeeman. And, oh yeah, he is an owner of the Chicago Cubs. And John Bruning’s $600K does not scare away Pete Ricketts.

But, a question would be whether Pete really wants to take on Ben Nelson again. That was a hard, big loss, and polling may not show that Pete could have success this time against Nelson.

Now, suppose Nelson decides to hang it up? That would be a whole ‘nother ballgame.

And a ballgame the Cubs could win (so to speak).

Pete is the kind of candidate who could bide his time to see the way things shake out, and potentially ride in as a saviour. Count Pete out of the Senate race at your peril.

Now all that being said, Ricketts may have decided he isn’t interested in the Senate. Heck Dave Heineman just showed that even if he could slam dunk the job, he wasn’t interested.

Besides, there are 100 Senators, but only 50...Governors.

And with Heineman staying in until 2014, that means Rick Sheehy won’t get to sit in the Governor’s McMansion for two years before a run. If Pete is more interested in being Governor, Heineman’s decision just made it a better race for him

Mike Foley
After thinking about it a bit, we are a little more convinced that State Auditor Mike Foley could be interested/have a shot.

Think about a few things: Whenever Foley makes ANY statement these days, it makes headlines. He has been the state watchdog who goes hunting and shakes things up at every turn. If Foley is in the news, you just hope it isn’t your doorstep he has stopped at.

And Nebraskans dig the good-government, no-nonsense types. He is not flashy but gets (at least by all appearances) the job done.

He is also a statewide office holder and has some decent name ID.

Now an interesting thing about Foley is that he is part of the so-called “3F Catholic Mafia” of Fortenberry-Foley-(Tony) Fulton. The three have been known to put their political heads together on various issues, and generally support each other as well.

So if Fort gets in, we would be very surprised if Foley did as well. Or vice versa. But one would presumably have the support of the other, and everything else they could throw in.

And level headed calm Foley could presumably be a foil to the more brash Bruning. There could be interesting maneuvering.  But then again, we have no idea if Foley is even interested.

***

But, right now, we will say this:  If it is a multi-person primary (at tis point), Bruning would get our bet. He is organized. Has solid financials (and presumably David Sokol) behind him. And he will be a tough campaigner.

Oh, and he can beat Ben Nelson.

***

And some who we would guess will not run?

Lee Terry
As much as we are guessing he would rather run every six years instead of every two, we think Terry will enjoy moving up the ranks in the House.

Shane Osborn
After jumping out of politics, and dealing with personal issues, it is probably too early for this big of a jump for Shane.

Rick Sheehy
Waiting for Governor Dave to leave.

Dave Kramer
Out of the limelight too long?

Hal Daub
Doubt that he is interested. Could be involved in candidate negotiations. But you never know.
**Update**  While if Hal got in he would be an outstanding Senator, it is now our understanding that he probably isn't interested in this gig right now.

***

Weigh in folks! It’s the rough and tumble world of intra-party politics!

Bruning for Senate

From the Bruning camp at JonBruning.com

Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning will hold a press conference at 10:00 A.M. tomorrow, November 5th in the Nebraska State Capitol Rotunda in Lincoln.

Get your yard signs ready.

And once again, who else?

***

And at 9pm this evening, a Tweet from Attny Gen Bruning:

Announcement tomorrow morning 10am re Sen Nelson's Senate seat. Isn't it time we rein in Federal Spending and take America back?

Heineman WILL NOT run in 2012

In his 3pm press conference today, Nebraska Governor Dave Heineman will announce that he will NOT run for the U.S. Senate in 2012!

Details to follow.

***

The MSM sites can tell you more about Governor Dave's decision.
Loves his job, hates DC.  That should do it.

Now...

***

Hurry, hurry!  Step right up!
Give us your names!

Our short list:

Attorney General Jon Bruning
Republican National Committeeman Pete Ricketts
Representative Jeff Fortenberry
Representative Lee Terry
State Treasurer-elect Don Stenberg
State Auditor Mike Foley
former State Treasurer Shane Osborn
Lt. Governor Rick Sheehy
Omaha attorney and former candidate Dave Kramer

Anyone else you'd like to mention?

Post Election 2010

Hellllllllllllloooooooooooooo Leavenworth Street readers!

It is THURSDAY morning, and yet we are still just getting over the momentous Tuesday evening.

First, a quick apology for no post yesterday.  Not only were we not able to post, but we weren't even able to read emails.  That is a first around here.  Ah well.  Let everyone collect their thoughts.

***

So, Lee Terry's HUGE win.

Now Leavenworth Street noted, throughout the past approximately four months, that the DCCC was not helping Tom White at all.  That after initially being put on the watch list for close races, NE-2 was almost never listed in the group of the top 50 or so competitive races in the country.

And of course there is ALWAYS internal polling in the campaigns that gets leaked as to the realities of the race.

So Leavenworth Street predicted a 56% margin for Terry.  We figured that was reasonable -- and really wouldn't have gone as high as the final margin.of 61%.

But, we will argue that 56% is pretty much a blow-out.

Sooooo, let us get back to that Omaha World Herald poll a week ago.

You will remember that they said their poll showed Terry with 44% -- FORTY-FOUR percent!  Oh, but parenthetically that was among "Registered Voters", and not "Likely Voters".  They then went on to say that, well, among Likely Voters, Terry had an 8 point lead.  And all that without giving any final numbers.

So, frankly, What the hell?

Readers, your local newspaper has just proved why newspapers are declining and people are going to blogs to find out what is really going on.

If the OWH doesn't want to lower turn-out, or whatever, by showing the actual poll results, then fine.  Don't publish the poll.

But what they did instead was lie to the public about what was going on in this race, and cast their own view about what "should" be done.  You know, instead of reporting the news.

And the OWH's  Paul Goodsell wrote today:

In addition, White never received any financial help from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, a clear sign his race was not viewed as likely to succeed.

Realllllly? A "clear sign" was it?

Funny then that we never saw that mentioned anywhere in any OWH stories or analysis of this race.

Good thing we did.

***

As far as the actual race in NE-2 went, this race was lost by Tom White as soon as ObamaCare passed, and he supported it.  Add in the ObamaStimulus that White also supported, and there's your rout.

For all the times that it was mentioned that President Obama won the 2nd District in 2008, no one went on to mention that, oh yeah, he isn't on the ballot this year.  And all of those supporters who voted for HIM weren't going to show for Tom White.

Oh, and also the millions of DCCC dollars wouldn't show either.

So the Terry strategy was basic:  hammer Tom White on those points and focus on the Independents once again who would turn the tide in this race.  Done and done.

And Tom White's strategy?

"Lee Terry is nailing a lobbyist."

That was it.

And enough about the claims by White that all he was trying to show is how close Terry is to lobbyists.

Bullshit.

Their whole strategy was to claim, via a gossip column, that Terry had slept with a chick that wasn't his wife.

And guess what strategists?  That is called "gutter politics" and it doesn't get you anywhere.  At least not in Nebraska.  And the Mike Johanns spot slapped that down so quickly White didn't know what hit him.  There is probably an argument to be made that Terry's numbers would have been lower without it.

And enough from you commenters that this wasn't "followed up" by the press.  There was nothing to follow-up on.  Let's be realists here kids.  You expect the OWH to investigate if a candidate is sleeping with someone?  Really?  That's what you want them to do?  If that's the case, then you have a developed a skewed view of reality and what you think you deserve.

We hate to even delve into this, but let's face it, this was the overriding "issue" of the campaign.  Because it was never about "lobbyists".  If it was, a bigger deal would have been made about Tom White flying lobbyists all over the state.  Of course no one cared unless White was in the mile-high club with said lobbyists as well.

Guess what politicians and strategist?  "Congressmen talk to lobbyists!" isn't going to get your candidate elected.  "Politicians take money from PACs and unions!" isn't going to get your guy elected.  People assume all that.  Unless the guy is found with hundreds of thousands of dollars in his freezer, it ain't gonna fly.  And even then, it's close.

***

So what about 2012 for Terry?

First, how about having a ringing victory, and people immediately start talking about two years from now?  Wow.

We will just say that this solid victory helps a lot.  And 2012 won't be 2008 for Obama in NE-2.  We will predict right now that he doesn't win it.  Feel free to check back.

***

And how about Governor Dave!

74%!  (My that was very close to Leavenworth Street's prediction of 75%!)

If Dave Heineman is inclined to run for Senate -- and we still think it looks like he is -- then this victory, even against a non-opponent (sorry Mike), will make Ben Nelson think twice about running.

The Washington Post even noted that Nelson wasn't fund raising like a real candidate.

On the one hand, don't put it past Nelson to run just to spite an opponent with a victory.

On the other, Nelson knows what it is like to lose in a major race (to Hagel).

If he thinks he is going down, there is a good chance he won't bother.

(Oh, and interesting, as a reader pointed out, that the LJS's Don Walton chose to feature a story about Ben Nelson's guy, Tony Raimondo, on Election Day...)

***

A quick shout-out for Adrian Smith's dominating win over two opponents (70%! -- we alternated between 75% and 65%, so we'll take credit).

And also to Jeff Fortenberry!  But geez Fort, only 71% over Ivy Harper?  Next time we are expecting 85% or higher.  (Tough love.)

***

And how about the Recallers?

They may still get to the 27,000 sigs, but come on.  Observers will look back on it as a potentially fatal mistake that they didn't use paid circulators on Election Day.

They only covered 60-70 polling places out of 215?  Anecdotally there seemed to be quite a few in west O locations that weren't covered.  And who cares about the anti-people?  Like a college kid was going to stop someone from signing a petition.

The Recallers are going to need to hone their message and organization if they hope to hit their numbers.

***

The Leg races?  There were plenty.  Feel free to crow about your winner.

Glad to be back!

Mid-Election Day 2010

We have reports of relatively brisk voting today and various Recalling.

It seems pretty clear that the Recallers did not have petitions at every polling place, from our various and sundry emails.  A mistake not to pay for more Election Day coverage?

We will see.

Here is a blurry camera phone shot of one table set up.  Apropos of really not much...

***

We have a had a few suggestions from People We Trust who think our Leavenworth Line was a little high on a couple of them.  One suggested that with NE-3 split to three candidates, Adrian Smith would have a much harder time hitting the 77% mark we suggested.  Maybe down about 10%.  OK fine.

But we're sticking with the others, because, well, why not?

***

There have been more than a few suggestions that, should Tom White go down tonight, it won't be the last time he was kicked around.

Joe Jordan is suggesting that he would come back in 2012 (the year of the Great Apocalypse), since Obama voters, particularly in North O, would be more likely to surface for that election.  He also suggests Congressional  redistricting could help him.

And then there is talk around First National Bank that White may run for Mayor, should the Recall throw out the current Democrat.

We suppose anything is possible, but we would think that a little polling would put an end to that idea.

***

We mentioned the other day the new book out about a fictional Senate race in Nebraska -- The Nostalgist, by Omaha Author/Attorney, Mark Kratina.

We have read the first eight chapters -- and now plan on finishing up the rest on the Kindle soon.

The story begins telling about a young lawyer having his first Senate campaign funder in Omaha, and stretches out to shape things up with the Omaha World Herald, the old incumbent Senator and --snark!-- a local blogger.  (We haven't been able to ascertain whether that meant to mimic a real local blog, but we'll find out.)

In any case, Kratina gives a vivid picture of an idealist young pol making his way through the reality of statewide politics.  Omahans and Nebraskans will probably get a kick out of the local settings, though it could probably be Anywhere, Midwest USA.

Now we quizzed Kratina on whether the protagonist was patterned after any young local political upstarts -- Esch and Kleeb came to mind.  But he insists the character was not drawn from either, and if anything comes from his own experiences.

We look forward to finishing this book, especially with this election season fresh in our minds.

And guess what, cheapskate?  YOU can read the first eight chapters just like we did FOR FREE by going to the Fedora House publishers' site and downloading the .pdf of it.

And after you've had that appetizer, go buy the real deal and get Mark to sign it.

HOW, you ask?

By getting your butt on down to The Bookworm (8702 Pacific) on Sunday, November 14th from 1-3 pm.

Tell him Street Sweeper sent you, and he will sign his name with an extra flourish (right Mark?).

Again, we don't know Mark personally at all, and we're not getting a nickel out of this. But everyone we've asked has said he is a standup guy (even if he IS a Yankee fan...), and we think you'll dig the book.

Give a hoot: Read a book.

***

We had a laugh at the email that went out from the Democrats, asking for "volunteers" for District 14 Legislature candidate Teresa Whitehead (against Republican Jim Smith).

Of course those "volunteers" would be paid $20.

Um...doesn't that make them...not volunteers?

In any case, here is a blurry camera phone shot of a couple of said union volunteers at 72nd and 370.  We are told that they bolted from the corner at the crack of 1pm.  Apparently they didn't volunteer to get paid overtime...

***

Hey, how come former Democrat Chair Steve Achelpohl isn't on the Board of Directors of "Bold Nebraska" any more?

***

More as it comes in -- and keep sending in your polling place reports and blurry camera phone pics!  (Not so fast Bret Favre...)

Latest Leavenworth Street Line

Per tradition, we here at Leavenworth Street give you the odds on the major Nebraska races on Election Day!

(Remember, betting is illegal at Bushwood, and I never slice...)

So without further ado...

1st DISTRICT
Jeff Fortenberry - I (R)
Ivy Harper (D)

Odds: OFF THE BOARD!

Over/Under for Fortenberry: 74%

In the Dem primary, Harper barely beat out a drummer. In the General, Democrats are still embarrassed that Ivy is the best they got. Many NE-1 Dems may have to search for a reason to go to the polls.

***

3rd DISTRICT
Adrian Smith - I (R)
Rebekah Davis (D)
Dan Hill (I)

Odds: OFF THE BOARD!

Over/Under for Smith: 77%

With the Davis-Hill ticket pounding Smith at every diner they can find, one might think that they will make a dent on Smith. Well, we’re giving them a 23% dent in the GOP dominated 3rd. Hope that makes them feel better.

***

GOVERNOR
Dave Heineman - I (R)
Mike Meister (D)

Odds: OFF THE BOARD!

Over/Under for Heineman: Hmm... 78%?

Heineman got 73% in 2006 against a similarly unknown David Hahn. This year? Well, we think even a scandal damaged Mark Lakers could have beaten that. But Meister? YouTube campaigns don’t exactly equal votes.

OK, we’ll say 75% just to be a little more reasonable. But if it is as high as 78%, we will take credit.

***

2nd DISTRICT
Lee Terry - I (R)
Tom White (D)

Odds: Terry 1:2 (that’s bet $2 to win $1)

Over/Under for Terry: 56%

After the bluster of the campaign, this would be a pretty solid win for Terry. Obviously it is all about turnout, so the question again is, What are the big reasons for Dems to turn out? To send a message about Pelosi? To NOT sign the Mayor Recall petition? We are just not seeing it.

By the way, these are the same numbers as those from the first poll taken in this race a year ago.

***

So there you have it, Gamblor.  Place your bets! (Betting not allowed.)

And also feel free to argue about the down ballot races here as well. (Keep it civil, please)

Either email or post comments about your voting and/or petition signing or not-signing process, and any interesting photos!

New post around Noon, or as news breaks and/or is glued back together.
We will occasionally Tweet as well.

And here is the deal commenters: You want to make your own prediction, or knock these? Fine. But please, come up with something other than “Anonymous” so we follow along after this is is done. Just make up a name. It makes things easier.

One last message, from Governor Dave

Coming to YOUR 2nd District phone tonight!
Governor Dave Heineman for Lee Terry.
Hear (and see it) here:



Of course, there is a chance you won't receive it.
But then, if you've already heard it, you don't really need to now do you?

***

We have received a number of "click here to find your polling place" aps over the last few weeks.
This one seems to be not-bad, and it is distributed through Google.
That may or may not turn you on/off, and we stand by nothing here.
But it could help you to vote tomorrow, and if so, rock on:



***

We recently received info about a book by a local (Omaha) author about -- a Nebraska U.S. Senate campaign!

Here is the release about The Nostalgist.

Mark Kratina, an Omaha attorney, has published his first novel, The Nostalgist. The story centers around Baron Tapley, a young Omaha attorney who suspends a burgeoning legal career to run as The Party's candidate for Nebraska's Senate seat against heavily-favored, two-time incumbent David Westfall. Dubbed the "citizen candidate," Baron's brand of plain, authentic talk and unbridled idealism strikes a chord with a public all too familiar with the powerlessness and pessimism of the times.

But Baron finds his ideals at odds with more than just the political establishment. While his crude, calculating opponent is missing in action on the campaign trail, Baron discovers that the world around him appears at a crossroads. With the economy worsening by the day, venerable American institutions are disappearing from the landscape: newspapers, public libraries, small towns, and the tightly-held promise of the American Dream.

"The story is really about how we've come to a crossroads of who we are as a country," Kratina said. "Many of the themes deal with how we're changing journalistically, politically, and how we feel about those changes. The Nostalgist is a snapshot of a handful of characters, all at various stages of their lives, and how they deal with that change.

"The idea of using a political campaign as a catalyst to explore deeper themes going on in the country was interesting to me. Particularly, the themes of generational disconnect and the paradign shift from newspapers to blogs and the overall explosion of technology in how we interact with one another."

As it is a Nebraska-specific story, many state landmarks appear throughout the story, including the Durham Museum, the State Fairgrounds, and various small towns. The Omaha World-Herald plays prominently in the tension between old media and new media.

"It is a story of its time. I was really looking to write something that captured the confusion of the times. Though the story has a political bent, I did not want to write a partisan narrative. The politics of the story are contemporary, but the words Republican and Democrat do not appear in the book.

"When you throw a main character who is a young, Generation Xer into a world shaped by Baby Boomers and give him touches of influence from members of the Greatest Generation, it made for an interesting project for me."

You can pick up a copy or just read some sample chapters of The Nostalgist at www.fedorahouse.com. The Nostalgist is also available in paperback and E-book formats on Amazon.com.

Now, we don't know Mark (and he doesn't know us). But we like to support local folks and this subject is, of course, in our bailiwick, so to speak.

In any case, Mark was kind enough to send us the first eight chapters and we will give you a review of them tomorrow.

***

More news as it happens.