Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Latest Leavenworth Street Line

Per tradition, we here at Leavenworth Street give you the odds on the major Nebraska races on Election Day!

(Remember, betting is illegal at Bushwood, and I never slice...)

So without further ado...

Jeff Fortenberry - I (R)
Ivy Harper (D)


Over/Under for Fortenberry: 74%

In the Dem primary, Harper barely beat out a drummer. In the General, Democrats are still embarrassed that Ivy is the best they got. Many NE-1 Dems may have to search for a reason to go to the polls.


Adrian Smith - I (R)
Rebekah Davis (D)
Dan Hill (I)


Over/Under for Smith: 77%

With the Davis-Hill ticket pounding Smith at every diner they can find, one might think that they will make a dent on Smith. Well, we’re giving them a 23% dent in the GOP dominated 3rd. Hope that makes them feel better.


Dave Heineman - I (R)
Mike Meister (D)


Over/Under for Heineman: Hmm... 78%?

Heineman got 73% in 2006 against a similarly unknown David Hahn. This year? Well, we think even a scandal damaged Mark Lakers could have beaten that. But Meister? YouTube campaigns don’t exactly equal votes.

OK, we’ll say 75% just to be a little more reasonable. But if it is as high as 78%, we will take credit.


Lee Terry - I (R)
Tom White (D)

Odds: Terry 1:2 (that’s bet $2 to win $1)

Over/Under for Terry: 56%

After the bluster of the campaign, this would be a pretty solid win for Terry. Obviously it is all about turnout, so the question again is, What are the big reasons for Dems to turn out? To send a message about Pelosi? To NOT sign the Mayor Recall petition? We are just not seeing it.

By the way, these are the same numbers as those from the first poll taken in this race a year ago.


So there you have it, Gamblor.  Place your bets! (Betting not allowed.)

And also feel free to argue about the down ballot races here as well. (Keep it civil, please)

Either email or post comments about your voting and/or petition signing or not-signing process, and any interesting photos!

New post around Noon, or as news breaks and/or is glued back together.
We will occasionally Tweet as well.

And here is the deal commenters: You want to make your own prediction, or knock these? Fine. But please, come up with something other than “Anonymous” so we follow along after this is is done. Just make up a name. It makes things easier.


Rob said...

So whats the over/under on Suttle signatures on the day? 15,000?

Street Sweeper said...

Thought about putting that up, but the official answer wont' be public, right?

So, meh.


Gambler said...

Jim Smith 54%
Lydia Brasch 53%
Chad Wright 52%
John Comstock 51%

And if it were possible to confirm, the recall will have well over 20,000 signatures

Chett (with two t's) said...

will we be able to sign a petition to recall Obama?

please please please!!!!!

GeosUser said...

100% probability John Friend wins reelection as Clerk of the Douglas County District Court. Yeah, he's running unopposed.
Terry beats White by wider margin than last Terry vs. Esch race in 2008.
Heineman crushes the nearly invisible Meister by historic margin.
In CD1, Fortenberry crushes Ivy Harper. BTW, I happened upon NET "meet the candidates" program that featured an interview with Ms. Harper. Now I've seen some bad candidate interviews but Ms. Harper has to be right up there for the absolute worst ever. It's worth a look if it's posted on the NET website. It should be required viewing for any candidate for any office under the heading, "How Not To Do An Interview 101".

Ted Nerle said...

For my "name" I was going to use "Marge N. Overa" but I googled it and someone appears already to be using it. I couldn't think of anything else. But the word verification actually works for a name so I'll just use that.

Anyways, no one ever said they wanted to take me up on my bet that BOTH White loses and Suttle gets recalled. Lots of big talk from the trolls but no one willing to put anything on the line.

One more comment: Vince Powers, Dem Nat'l Delegate, claimed on the radio a year ago that Obama's election was a mandate for his policies (rather than just a phenomenon about electing the first black Pres or something.) When the Dems get hammered today, will that be a mandate for a Republican agenda?

Lois S said...

I've made up my mind on amend #2 but could someone explain the upshot of amend #1? Thanks

One Out In The Third said...

The one thing you have to remember...after today it will be business as usual. Our Republican representatives will still be sitting in their comfort zone and Dems will still be pissed off at the world. What scares me the most is that Republicans say they want to fix Obamacare...I want them to repeal it.


Amendment #1 provides more "free" money to the EDC's...federal and state grants...increases in your utility bill that some say will lead to more government debt that we will have to pay for.

The measure has been shot down twice but our friends in gov't say we don't know what's good for us. I'm voting no again.

James said...

One Out in the Third,

Try Googling "'Adrian Smith' repeal healthcare", and you will find that both Smith and Fortenberry have signed that they want Obamacare repealed.

But I'm sure you and Dan Hill already knew that...

Anonymous said...

I signed the Recall at 8:30 AM today and I was the bottom of the third page for these circulators. Looked like it was going well.

WJB said...

My prediction?

Winners - all Republican candidates

Loser - all Nebraskans.

Solomon Kleinsmith said...

As time has gone on, I've gone from cautiously optimistic, to pretty confident that he recall will get the signatures it needs. The kicker has been how many liberals I know that are for it... and not only for it... I don't even bring it up, but since they know I'm political they bring it up themselves.

I haven't found anyone who doesn't work with the mayor that actually supports him. The best they've got is folks who are just against the recall because they think its overkill... most people I've talked to (mostly moderates and lefties) are for the recall or on the sidelines and don't care either way.

One Out In The Third said...


What they signed was really nothing more than a pledge to repeal and they both signed on late. Must not have received the memo. The required number of signatures to advance is far from being close.

Then you have Senate Republicans that are dragging their feet and a President with a veto pen. I see a lot of progress here.

Smith with his own lips recently said the "we have to scale Obamacare back." That sound like "repeal" to you?

Bought and paid for said...

"Smith with his own lips recently said the "we have to scale Obamacare back."

By "we" I assume he means Club for Growth.

Gambler said...

It was funny watching the news last night and seeing Tom White making a call. He was using the old standard phone with a standard wall jack. Meanwhile over at both the Douglas County Republican HQ, Terry HQ, and NEGOP HQ they are using IP phones connected to laptops and desk top computers. Heck in the DCRP alone there were over 25 people on the phones!

Good riddance to Tom White!

Anonymous said...

Gambler, you're saying it's smarter to spend a couple hundred dollars on a laptop or desktop computer to make phone calls, then spend $10 on a corded phone?

Anonymous said...

Nice to know some determine their choice of leaders by how many people are at the call center, what they are calling on and if the candidate has the proper equipment....so to speak.

It would be great to have an intelligent mind such as White's in Congress fighting for something more than a seat at the kiddy table for 12 years. (oh yeah, and now you can make the jokes about his punching someone out at the club)

Gambler said...

Laugh all you want however, the idea of using technology to broadcast a message seemed to work for your idol Obama?

So,,,,, still laughing. Oh and what is the ROI on technology which can be used again and again? Concept of ROI escaping you right now. It's okay we all understand.

Oh and the jealousy about having VOLUNTEERS is well played. But you shouldn't be to worried as the UNIONS are PAYING to have people play along with your D's.

So get your itsy bitsy teeny weeny soap box ready for your Trolling. Be sure to save one for Tom White to stand on later tonight...... if he can.

Lathrop for Congress said...

No need to make fun of Tom White for punching someone, or being ordered to apologize to fellow attorneys. Nope after 8 PM today it will all be just a bad memory.

Best of Luck finding a candidate in a year or so. Maybe you can get Steve Lathrop to run? Now HE is a worthy candidate!

Horse Sense said...

I think Lathrop could beat Terry. Honestly. And I'm not some Dem troll or political hack, either. I'm a conservative, registered independent who counts Jeff Fortenberry and Tony Fulton as personal friends.

But I've watched Steve in the legislature and he's a formidable politician. Very savvy. And he doesn't have some of the negatives that Tom White has. I don't have anything against Lee Terry, but I think Steve could give him a real run for his money.

And, let's be honest. This year ain't a good year for Dems, especially in Nebraska. So, in that sense, Steve Lathrop's timing would be good IF he were to run against Terry next time around. There'd be a general election, so turnout would be strong and the anti-Obama/Big Gov't backlash that we're seeing in this cycle will have passed.

Timing is right for a Dem to challenge Terry next time around. Word to the wise for Terry would be to steel himself for battle because it could be a good one.

Anonymous said...

Reading the word "intelligent" in the same phrase as Tom White gave me a good chuckle!

Stan said...

Just returned from voting and signed the recall petition. Seated not to far from the person collecting signatures were two stoner-looking undergrad types (aka Hard Core Democrats) who I assume were "Persuaders." they glared at me the whole time I was signing the petition, but did not approach and try to "persuade" me. Note to Dems for future recalls: I know it is easy for you to get stupid idealistic college kids as volunteers as they don't know any better and have nothing better to do (including going to class and learning something), but if you actually want to to try to "persuade" someone, at least make them clean up a bit and look respectful, not like they came straight from Barrett's to the polling place.

Las Vegas said...

SS and all - You guys obviously don't understand the concept of Over/Under betting. You are simply predicting percentages.

Street Sweeper said...


We're comfortable with our knowledge of over/under betting and we believe we have set the lines accordingly.

Now don't you have some employees to intimidate into voting for Harry Reid?


P.S. Buffets suck.

One Out In The Third said...

Holy cow Sweepie...Lose a lot of money on your last trip to Vegas? Never ate the buffets in Vegas...but did enjoy the Blue Man Group and the French sounding Circus show.

Street Sweeper said...

The deal with the buffets is that the food is super-average. Oftentimes, barely merchantable.

You're way better off just sitting down in one of the zillion other very good to great restaurants and getting a regular meal of what you want instead of bloating yourself on shrimp and bacon at the buffet.

That being said, I would still like to try the buffet at the Wynn.

One Out In The Third said...

I agree. You should always check with the locals as to where the best restaurants are. Last trip was to San Antonio and Corpus. Found the best seafood in a sports bar on North Padre. Drives me nuts when Nebraskans tout the wonderfulness of Red Lubster.