Messiahs and Posers

The mini-war-of-words between former OWH publisher Harold Andersen and U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel continued over the weekend when Andersen used his Sunday vanity column (which you gotta pay for) to once again call out Hagel. Andersen said he believes there’s a distinct possibility that Hagel has a “messiah complex” based on Hagel’s notion to run for President as an Independent.

Andersen then proposed that Hagel resign from the Republican Party to run for President or re-election to the Senate as an “I”:

After all, how does a public of­fice- holder justify continued membership in a party that he described on a national televi­sion program earlier this month as having been "hijacked by a group of single-minded, almost isolationist insulationists, pow­er- projectors."

Andersen also took a shot at Hagel’s recent fundraiser, name-droppingly implying that it wasn’t a show of support for Hagel at all:

I would say the turnout — and the contributions — were to some extent a tribute to the im­pressive principal sponsors of the fundraising event, including Ann and Ken Stinson, chairman of Peter Kiewit Sons' Inc., in­vestment banker Mike McCar­thy and wife Nancy and Gov. Dave Heineman and wife Sally Ganem.

Andersen finished his column by discussing how he and his wife name their dogs.
Seriously.

************

In today’s OWH Midlands section, new columnist Robert Nelson (which you also gotta pay to read) takes the opportunity to belatedly dump on Hal Daub’s old idea to flood Ashland and create a giant recreational lake.

Nelson attempts to segue into this topic by pointing out that he’s was born in a small town, raised in a small town, used to daydream in that small town…well, you get the picture… and that small town Nebraska people hate Omaha. Except that they like to go there. And for Nelson, Daub’s idea epitomizes they way Omahans think of small-town Nebraskans: They just don’t care about/respect us!

In the past, statewide political hopefuls with mainly Omaha cre­dentials have tried to wear a cow­boy hat, or a seed cap, or give some crazy new subsidy to farm­ers, in their attempt to be Ne­braskan.

Their “attempt”? Hey Robert, we’ve got a news-flash for you: Maybe while you lived in Phoenix you forgot this, but OMAHA IS IN NEBRASKA. Now go pay your wheel-tax already!

And just for the record Robert, we thought the lake idea was kinda cool…

***********

Carlos Castillo, who managed Governor Dave Heineman’s 2006 upset victory over the beloved Tom Osborne, will be recognized by Campaigns and Elections Magazine as a “2007 Rising Star” in its May 31st edition. The mag, which lists ten Democrats, ten Republicans and five nonpartisan politicos, had this to say about Castillo:

In the 2006 Republican primary, he led Heineman from a 40-point deficit to victory over Nebraska legend Tom Osborne. He has managed two successful re-election campaigns for Rep. Lee Terry and developed a successful strategy to elect a Republican majority on the Omaha City Council. In 2003, then-Gov. Mike Johanns appointed Castillo as the Douglas County Election Commissioner, making him the youngest election commissioner in the country.

In December, Castillo was appointed by Heineman as Director of the Nebraska Department of Administrative Services

Bruning to make it official

Harold Reutter of the Grand Island Independent reports that Jon Bruning will announce in June “whether” he will run for the U.S. Senate seat currently occupied by Chuck Hagel. (Bruning to announce political plans in June – GII- 5/24/07.)

(In other breaking news, the sunrise in GI tomorrow will be at 6:08 AM.)

Nonetheless, a couple of interesting quotes from Bruning at the Hall County Republican dinner in the story:

“Nebraskans want somebody else to represent them in the Senate,” Bruning said.

He said he talked to people in Grand Island on Wednesday afternoon. He said he did not have one person profess support for Sen. Hagel. Bruning said he had spent only a few brief hours in Grand Island. But during that time, he said, “I've picked up several offers of (campaign) support and several thousand dollars in (financial) commitments.”

What should be interesting is whether Bruning announces his fundraising results at the end of the quarter (June, or into July). Since he is still in “testing the waters” mode, he is not obligated to report the results. Whether he does or not will be a significant indicator of his support. It will show whether donors are really behind him or want to wait for Hagel or Daub, Raimondo or Johanns. (And after he formally announces, “testing the waters’ phase will be over, and in the next period he’ll have to report all the money he has raised.)

Assume that if he does not release the info that his numbers are not where he wants them to be. Remember, no candidate releases bad polling numbers -- the same will be true for Bruning’s war chest.

Separated at Birth - Bob Kerrey

It’s already a “Very Special Bob Kerrey Week” here on Leavenworth Street, so we figured we’d go ahead and toss out a little Separated at Birth for you:

Former Nebraska Governor, former Senator, and possible Senate candidate, Bob Kerrey
and
Former Emperor of Rome, Julius Caesar
***

So, more on Rockin’ Bob:
In a very short period of time we’ve seen him
1) Poll Nebraskans about whether they still luv him;
2) Prepare to give a speech to Nebraska Dems at their love-fest; and
3) Sign up for a gig on Air America

And now, he’s written an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal about Iraq. All this from the guy who’s 99% sure he’s NOT going to run for Senate in Nebraska…

***

Of course the ironic thing now is that you have:

• One Nebraska Vietnam vet Senator who is bucking his party against the war and another Nebraska Vietnam vet former Senator who is bucking his party in favor of the war.
  

• On the one hand you’ve got Republicans rejecting Hagel (mainly because of Iraq) and on he other you’ve got Democrats rejecting Kerrey (mainly because of Iraq).
• You’ve got the likes of Arianna Huffington singing the praises of Chuck Hagel and you’ve got the likes of Rush Limbaugh singing the praises of Bob Kerrey.

So here’s a Q for you: If Kerrey decides to run for Senate, will a True-Blue Nebraska Democrat surface to be the Jon Bruning to Kerrey’s Chuck Hagel?

***

Speaking of Bruning, earlier this week he announced that his Senate campaign is coming together with the addition of Jordan McGrain as his campaign manager. (Leavenworth Street predicted this possibility back in December). If Hagel drops out (and say, Bruning, Daub, Raimondo and Johanns are all in), it will be interesting to see the other Nebraska politicos who get more and more campaign experience in this coming season.

Rockin’ Bob’s Comeback Tour

***Update 10:00 AM, 5/21/07***

In the post below, we refer to KMTV reporter Joe Jordan’s blog about a poll done by Bob Kerrey. We’ve been informed that Jordan’s blog post is not a NEW scoop, but actually refers to Kerrey’s OLD poll, and that he has NOT commissioned a new one since his April polling. That being said, go ahead and ignore our sarcasm regarding new polling, but feel free to focus on the rest. We apologize to Governor/Senator/President Kerrey for the confusion.

***

Well, we cranked on KMTV’s Joe Jordan recently for his history of hatchet jobs, but we’ll give him this: he comes up with the political scoop from time to time (even if the last one hasn’t exactly panned out yet).

The latest on his “Joe Jordan on Politics” blog is that former Senator Bob Kerrey spent $25,000 on a poll last week which told him that if he ran in the 2008 Nebraska Senate race, he could beat almost everyone in the current field. (Kerry polling in Nebraska – Joe Jordan on Politics – 5/18/07.)

Now a few (major) caveats here:

1) Kerrey said he would not run if Hagel stays in, and unlike Bruning’s statement, we tend to believe him on that, but…

2) The word is that his poll said he would have a tough time against – or even lose to – former Governor and current Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns.

Jordan quotes Kerrey as saying he may not even run, and would need “a compelling reason” to do it. (Compelling like he could win easy and be a Senator again.)

Interesting that just a month ago, after a first poll told him he wasn’t doing that great, Kerrey said he was 99% sure that he would not run for Senate again. Ninety-nine percent! Yet he comes back just a month later and blows twenty-five grand on another poll?

Since Kerrey is obviously keeping his cards close to the vest, we’d be more curious to see what that poll really said (not to mention how much it pushed). We’re real curious to know if the average Nebraska voter thinks that the sixty-four year old President of New York City’s The New School, who was toying just two years ago to run for Mayor of New York City, really has his head anywhere near Nebraska these days. We don’t doubt that Rockin’ Bob’s name still has a certain cachet in Nebraska, we just wonder if it’s really the slam dunk (even against a Bruning) that his polls seem to indicate.

And to show that Kerrey’s 99% estimate is probably closer to, say, 65%, note that Kerrey is headlining the Nebraska Dem’s Morrison-Exon dinner and will be a new radio show host on the liberal “Air America” political network. Interesting political stuff for The New School's President. (Ok, now all you Dem’s take a cold-shower so you can settle down those goose-bumps…)

Separated at Birth - Hal Daub

On what has been Hal Daub Week here on Leavenworth Street, a little Separated at Birth for ya…

Former Congressman and Mayor, and current maybe Senate candidate, Hal Daub
and
Former ESPN anchor and current MSNB talking head, Keith Olbermann

GOTCHA! Journalism

At the Hal Daub press conference earlier this week, here was the first question out of the box from KMTV’s Joe Jordan, with the following exchange with Daub:

Joe Jordan: Mr. Daub, do you have to give up your (Republican Party) committeeman's job?
Daub: No.
Jordan: But doesn't part of that job entail recruiting candidates?
Daub: It does!
Jordan: So, how can you recruit candidates if you might be one?
Daub: It looks like we might have a lot of candidates, and there may be very little need to recruit in the Senate race.

This question did not serve the least purpose regarding Daub’s campaign, his views, or anything else. Jordan viewed it as (one of) his BIG chances to say “Ah hah! Gotcha!”

This is nothing new for members of the press, but Jordan is certainly one who just luuuuvs to get a politician to slip up or contradict himself. And what does this serve? Well, nothing. Of course, it’s fairly hilarious that Daub POWNED Jordan (as the kids like to say) on this question.

But the Gotcha! Questions didn’t end there. We heard from someone in the back of the room (not positive who it was, so we won’t say), asking about Daub’s “Listening Tour”:

Reporter: I’m recalling 17-18 years ago, when you ran against incumbent Senator David Karnes. At that time, there wasn’t a listening tour where you just challenged the incumbent. What’s different now?

Daub: On the contrary, if you go back and look, I had been recruited to run for the Senate seat against the incumbent (Senator Zorinsky), and had actually done a statewide tour in the months of November and December before the Press Club Ball (at which Zorinsky collapsed and later died).

Kind-of, sort-of a relevant question there (though not really). But of course the statement made by the reporter was not true. And while it gave Daub the ability to correct a false assumption, we’re willing to bet that exchange didn’t make it into the reporter’s story.

So now, back to Jordan:

Jordan: Mr. Bruning has a poll that says he beat you 55% to 18%. If it's not wrong, how do you overcome that?

Daub: …I suppose someone could have asked Governor Heineman that question when he was told he was forty-one points behind one of his challengers in his race for Governor.

We’ll give this one to Jordan that this Gotcha was at least slightly relevant. And we should also give it to Daub that he smacked another one out.

Finally, Jordan again looks to stir things up between Daub and Chuck Hagel:

Jordan: A couple of days ago Senator Hagel said the Republican Party had been hijacked in effect by extremists. You have a role in the Republican Party, do you agree?

Daub: I do not.

And this response was as much as Jordan used on his TV news report. But Daub actually went on to say:

Daub: And that’s not to say anything disparaging. I think I know what he means, but I’m not sure, so I think you should talk to him about that. And I really don’t want to put words in his mouth and try to interpret what he means by it. I think he might be, over the next few weeks, finding some ways to elaborate on what he means by that, and I hope so. I’d certainly like to hear more about his views on that particular subject.

Now to his credit, sort-of, Jordan put part of that answer on his blog. But Jordan also describes Daub’s answer -- “I do not” -- as taking “a shot at his ‘good friend’ Senator Chuck Hagel.” Taking a shot? Really? We’d say “taking a shot” would be something along the lines of “he’s not a real Republican” or “he doesn’t even live in the state”. Interesting that Jordan believes responding to a question that you respectfully disagree with someone is now “taking a shot”. But of course, now he can say, “Gotcha!”

*********************************

And as long as we’re on the subject of opinionated journalism reeking through “news” stories, how about this intro by Todd Cooper in the OWH today about the “O!” campaign art pieces:

“The masterminds of the incessant O! campaign throughout Omaha have sued Shelton, Neb., manufacturer Patrick Keough in Douglas County District Court, saying he didn't produce the O!s for which he was paid dough.”

(Omaha chamber, Bemis sue over missing O! sculptures – OWH – 5/17/07 - Italics added.)

So you’re not crazy about the O! campaign, huh Todd? Thanks for sharing. How ‘bout just the news next time. Thanks.

Popeye Hagel

This morning in the Washington Post, Dana Milbank tells about a speech U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel gave yesterday where he gave increasing hints about an independent run for President. (Hagel as Hamlet -- or the Third Man? – Washington Post – 5/17/07).

Here are a few quotes from the article:

• "You've got in one sense the perfect storm brewing here that is going to blow into next year where I think anything is possible, and I really do believe that. I think the legitimacy of an independent candidacy is a real possibility."


• Whatever his true intentions, his words yesterday pointed unmistakably toward an independent presidential run: too concerned to retire ("everywhere you look, we have huge problems"), too independent to remain Republican ("neither party is seen as an answer") and too disgusted with Congress ("this nonsense that we're consumed with here") to seek reelection next year.
• "(I) might have an interest in moving in a little different direction. As you look at the early poll numbers on any candidates in the two major parties, no one has been breaking out of a pattern. Neither party is seen as an answer or as a glittering new dimension to lead this country."

• He mentioned the difficulty historically faced by independent candidates, but quickly added: "Does that mean it couldn't be done? No, not at all."

• Unbidden, Hagel announced he is "not at all concerned" about his family tolerating a presidential run. And he sounded skeptical that there would be "an opening for me" in the Republican primaries. "Those are uncontrollables I can't determine," the senator said. "I am who I am, I've said what I believe, and this is who I am."

One question may be, does Chuck Hagel still want to part of this Republican party?

Daub dips his toe in

Today Hal Daub announced that he’s thinking about running for the U.S. Senate.

Sporting a blue button down shirt, next to his wife, at the Benson Community Center (where he said he and his brother used to sell fruit at the firehouse as a kid), Daub said he is not a candidate today, but...

• Is going on a "listening tour" of all 93 of Nebraska’s counties;


• Is going to raise, money, but will put all raised funds into a trust fund, which won’t be spent unless he formally announces, and if he doesn’t, he’ll return all the contributions;


• Hasn’t decided whether or not he would run if Hagel stays in the race (since no one else has actually announced either);


• Is not going to hatchet any other pseudo-candidates (like someone else we know), and will be “respectful” of the incumbent, Hagel;


• Does not agree with Hagel that the GOP has been hijacked.

He has a new website – www.HalDaub.com – and if you want to see how informal his campaign is at this point, take a look. He lists his personal email address at Blackwell Sanders (helllllo SPAM…) and has a resume that must be four pages long. There’s a decent chance he put the site together, literally, by himself.

Unfortunately, the lone photo he has up, which says he’s a “Lifelong Nebraskan”, shows him in front of the D.C. cherry blossoms with the Washington Monument in the background. C’mon Hal! Chimney Rock! Get your melon in front of Chimney Rock! Ah well…

The presser was vintage Hal, with him machine-gunning off all the issues that need to be fixed. He was also pretty relaxed though and did a nice job bantering with the reporters. If nothing else, the guy is a veteran of the process, and has definitely mellowed with age -- he actually seemed to think and consider before answering the questions. And he did have a good line in response to a question about Jon Bruning’s poll showing Bruning walloping him: There was also an early poll that showed Dave Heineman losing to Tom Osborne by forty points…

Hagel Faces the Nation

If you missed Chuck Hagel on Face the Nation, you really should take a look at the final one minute of the segment, cut out and posted here.

Bob Schieffer asks Hagel about New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Hagel quickly builds a temple at which to worship Bloomberg.

When he's then asked about a possible independent ticket with Bloomberg, Hagel's normal poker face turns into that of a college freshman who just drew his first straight flush. He's practically giddy.

Take a look.

Hagel the Rogue Elephant?

A week or so ago, the Chuck Hagel “people” were leaning on Rep. Adrian Smith because he wouldn’t commit to the Hagel Senate fundraiser. It was seen as a loyal Republican event, and Hagel’s peeps were furious that Smith wouldn’t come off the fence and side with Hagel over Jon Bruning.

Well.

Toss in a few weekend talk shows and now let’s start to really wonder what in the world is going on with Chuck Hagel. A few of his statements from the telly:

I am not happy with the Republican Party today. It's been hijacked by a group of single-minded almost isolationists, insulationists, power-projectors.
(Hagel-Bloomberg In '08? You Never Know - Face the Nation – 5/13/07.)

OK, you know the Geico caveman commercial that’s running these days, where the talk show psychologist blabs some pseudo-intellectual goop, and the caveman says, “Yes I have a response….WHAT?” The caveman response would be appropriate here.

And then Hagel continued with views about an Independent, Third-Party Presidential candidate route.

I think it shakes the system up. The system needs to be shaken up. What America will be looking at and wanting and demanding is honest, competent, accountable leadership. We need some new, fresh, independent ideas to lead this country forward.

When asked about a third-party candidacy with New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, he responded:

It's a great country to think about - a New York boy and a Nebraska boy to be teamed up leading this nation.

And for an inside scoop, note the American Spectator today:

Hagel insiders say that Hagel would run on the bottom of the ticket, which would largely be financed by the man on the top of the ticket, Bloomberg.Bloomberg, according to New York insiders, has been meeting with both Republican and Democrat political consultants, pollsters and media advisers. They informed him that a run would most likely require $100 million. “And probably a bit more,” says one with knowledge of the discussion. “Bloomberg didn't even blink when he heard the number. He's ready to cut the check.”
(Financing Chuck – The American Spectator 5/14/07.)

So here’s a question: Is Chuck Hagel burning all his Republican bridges in Nebraska as well? Because if he decides in the end to run for re-election, who wants to elect someone who hates their party? And it's silliness to say the party can't change, or a good Republican can't make the party better. You don't like the direction of the party? Then work to change it. Don’t just sit and batter it down.

So this latest foray by Hagel, which included a statement that Hagel will make his future-in-politics decision by late Summer, has inspired us to post what you see up at your right: The Chuck Hagel countdown clock! Because there are so many people who have said, they’re waiting to see what Chuck Hagel decides before they make their move.

Raimondo, Fahey and Kerrey have all said they wouldn’t run unless Hagel gets out. KMTV’s Joe Jordan said on his blog that that is essentially what Hal Daub will say tomorrow. We all heard Jon Bruning’s back and forth about Hagel. There’s Mike Johanns, the elephant in the room, who will undoubtedly have something to say if Hagel drops out of the Senate. And then there’s Michael Bloomberg, who is probably a little curious about what Chuck will do. So with all of them waiting, we’ve picked Labor Day as the go-to date for Hagel’s decision.

Though, it will be interesting to see whether other candidates (and voters, and contributors) have already made their moves by the time he decides. With all this Independent party talk going on, many Nebraska Republicans may abandon Hagel before he abandons them.

(And oh by the way, in Don Walton’s LJS column today, he states that, conspiracy theories aside, Ben Nelson didn’t know about Tony Raimondo’s decision until “a newspaper report was placed on his desk”. Uh huh. Riiiiight. Well, Ben Nelson also probably didn’t hear about his grandkids being born until he received a phone call, but we’re willing to bet he was aware that it was going to happen before that...)

What is Nelson thinking?

Did Ben Nelson screw Mike Fahey’s Senate bid?

We’re wondering what is going on in Columbus these days.

The LJS reports that Tony Raimondo, CEO of Behlen Manufacturing in Columbus has made the decision that if Chuck Hagel does NOT run for re-election, he will run for the REPUBLICAN nomination (Raimondo: I'm running if Hagel isn't – LJS – 5/10/07).

Now we speculated here on Leavenworth Street recently that it would make more sense for Raimondo to run as a Democrat – seeing as that field is wide open right now, and if Jon Bruning was to defeat Hagel in a primary, he’d be sitting in a good position.

Well, with Raimondo coming out specifically as a Republican, now we’re wondering what the king-maker was doing in all of this. And who is that? Well none other than Senator Ben Nelson, of course. Our sources tell us that it was Nelson who was encouraging Raimondo to make this bid. (And even if our sources aren’t “in the know”, Nelson HAD to be involved in his business associate, political buddy, and jet-provider’s decision.)

So, back to our original question, what was Nellie thinking encouraging Raimondo to do this?

Let’s put it in the worst light first: Hagel doesn’t run. Raimondo runs, along with Bruning, Hal Daub and…say…Kermit Brashear. So while Bruning is the current supposed darling, he has burned bridges with every Hagel supporter. Daub has staunch support, but high negatives as well. Brashear gets another cease and desist order from the Children’s Television Workshop for ripping off their frog. And that leaves Raimondo, who has lots of cash, a successful business career, and a political nomination from President Bush. So let’s just say, for this argument, that he slips in and WINS the GOP nomination.

But then, who is he running against? Mike Fahey, who got in because Hagel dropped out. So now Fahey is running against Raimondo who’s in at the behest of Democrat Ben Nelson, and Raimondo has the tacit endorsement of Nelson – and no way Nelson does any negative ads against Raimondo. So Raimondo wins, and Mike Fahey’s political career is over, all because of Ben Nelson. Hmmm…

Or let’s get a little more dastardly. What else could motivate Nelson to push Raimondo in? Is it so his wealthy friend can get in and bloody-up the GOP primary? A weakened Bruning, if he won the nom, would be a much easier target for a Fahey in the general election. And then Nelson DOES get the credit for the Democrat win.

So maybe Nelson figures it’s a win-win. Either his guy gets the job, or he gets the credit for the Dem win. Either way, it’s all about him.

But ya gotta ask, even if these pseudo-conspiracy theories are outlandish: What was Ben Nelson thinking in pushing Raimondo to run?

Hagel transcript

Here is a link to the transcript of the entire interview by Al Hunt with Chuck Hagel on “Political Capital with Al Hunt.”

And here are a few meatier pull-outs from that interview:

On running for President:

MR. HUNT: Well, what are the odds that you will get into that (Presidential) race? You've said you'll decide later. But odds as of today?
SEN. HAGEL: I will. Well, I don't know about odds, Al. I never get into that business. But I will make a decision on my political future in a few months. I have to. I have a second term coming to an end next year. And it will come down -
MR. HUNT: Still seriously considering?
SEN. HAGEL: Well, I'm seriously considering - I hope - some options I might have. And one of those options is to leave politics for awhile. Maybe this is the right time to do it; 12 years in the Senate is a long time. It's been a tremendous opportunity. Maybe there are some other things I could do to influence the world more effectively.

On meeting with Michael Bloomberg:

SEN. HAGEL: The mayor and I had a delightful dinner. We talked about our families; we talked about backgrounds, the world, Iraq, politics. There was no conversation about the two of us teaming up on a ticket. We did talk about the entire arc of interests that a couple of politicians would, a couple people who are interested in the outcome of mankind, and both engaged in politics. We have a lot of common interests, both businessmen, both have - I think - some general philosophies that coincide. But no, there was no talk of any ticket.

On running as an Independent:

MR. HUNT: Is one of your options to run as an independent?
SEN. HAGEL: Well, I don't ever foreclose any options. We'll see how the political world develops. I think we are living at a time here in this country, Al, that is as unpredictably politically as I've ever seen maybe in modern times. I think the political currents are running swiftly, deeply, unpredictably. What that then produces in the way of presidential dynamics and options next year I think is still quite unpredictable.
MR. HUNT: I take it that's a possible.
SEN. HAGEL: It's a possible.

The rest is pretty much on Iraq, which he calls, “the most significant, dangerous foreign policy blunder this country has made maybe ever.” Otherwise, nothing much too new for him.

Chuck Hagel (I-NE)

According to a Bloomberg News article today, Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel said he would consider running for President as an Independent:

An independent bid "is possible," Hagel, 60, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television's Political Capital with Al Hunt, scheduled to air today. "I don't ever foreclose any options."
(Hagel Says He Would Consider Presidential Run as an Independent – Bloomberg.com – 5/5/07.)

This is contrary to what Hagel said at his non-announcement announcement in March:

“I am a Republican. I believe I will continue to be a Republican.”

In fact, as noted here on Leavenworth Street, a Newsweek story back in February said that Hagel dismissed a scenario of running for the White House as an Independent as "ludicrous".

Regarding the issue of his footsy-ish dinner at The Palm in Washington, D.C. with New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, the article said:

…they talked about their families, politics and Iraq, and there was no discussion about teaming up for a presidential campaign. "We have a lot of common interests," he said. "But no, there was no talk of any ticket."

Having a major fund-raiser for his re-election campaign.
Meeting for a high-profile dinner with another proposed Presidential candidate.
Changing his position on whether he’d run as an Independent.

Well, we guess he’s leaving his options open…

The Hagels and The Brunings

A few quick hits on this Friday, mainly about the Hatfields and McCoys of Nebraska – Chuck Hagel and Jon Bruning!

First, for our readers who don’t make it out of their own media market, The Lincoln Journal Star published a Don Walton interview with Bruning yesterday. (Bruning vows Hagel's power won't deter him – LJS – 5/3/07. ) In it, Bruning continued his scorched-Earth attacks on Hagel – this time hitting with “Hagel doesn’t live in Nebraska” and “Hagel is for amnesty”. We’d only point out that these issues didn’t seem to bother Bruning when he announced he was a “Hagel-guy” a month ago. Also, we’d note that (for what it’s worth) Bruning’s immigration position is identical to that of one Senator Ben Nelson. Today the OWH addressed Bruning's immigration comments as well (Bruning calls Hagel's citizenship proposal 'amnesty' – OWH – 5/4/07.).

And we’ve got to say, we’re a little curious on Bruning’s strategy. He’s lashing out at Chuck Hagel at every opportunity, but where does that get him? He fires up Hagel’s base of supporters, he fires up Hagel himself and he comes off as overly negative very early. His obvious intention is to drive up Hagel’s negatives within the party, but should that be his main effort at this stage? We’ll listen to the arguments. Of course if his goal is to drive Hagel out of the race, we’re still persuaded that Mike Johanns waltzes in and takes the nomination.

The other issue that caught our eye was a story regarding the Hagel-Mike Bloomberg dinner at The Palm in Washington, D.C. The OWH quizzed Hagel about this and gives it a short mention (Hagel dines with Bloomberg at power-broker eatery – OWH – 5/4/07). We’d also say, interesting that they chose The Palm. This is the equivalent to having a private meeting on the median at 72nd and Dodge during rush-hour. They may as well have had a sign over them that said, “We’re talking about BIG things.”

In any case, the New York neo-conservative daily, “The New York Sun” ran an editorial today telling Bloomberg to stay away from Hagel because Hagel is “weak on terrorism.” (Bloomberg-Hagel? – The New York Sun – 5/4/07.) They base this mainly on a couple of Hagel votes and a recent speech. We note this because you gotta bet Bruning will be jumping all over this in the very near future. You’ve been warned.

Finally, you may not have heard that the Nebraska Democrats commissioned a poll (well, PUSH-poll) recently asking Nebraskans what they thought about…Republicans. Well, particularly Chuck Hagel and Jon Bruning. (Nebraska Democrat Party Offers Advice to Bruning Campaign - Southwest Nebraska News – 5/3/07.) Their conclusions? Not everyone loves Hagel and not everyone knows Bruning. So there you go Democrats! Happy with the way your party elders are spending your contributions? We’ll assume that this poll is intended to get some Democrat candidate juiced up to run. Fahey? Kleeb? Kerrey? (Raimondo???) Help us out here.

Maybe next time they can pay for a poll that asks which asks who gave a better speech: Eisenhower or Reagan.

Hagel & Bloomberg, sittin' in a (Palm) tree...

As the spring political winds continue to swirl in the Nebraska U.S. Senate race, a few strange items to note:

First is the OWH’s report about Tony Raimondo considering a run for Hagel’s seat (Raimondo testing waters for Senate – OWH – 5/3/07). Now word has it that Raimondo buddy Sen. Ben Nelson is the one trying to get Raimondo to throw his lid into the ring. And if you read the OWH article carefully, you’ll note that it says that Raimondo is a Republican. It goes on to note the other GOPers and Dems who might run. But it never specifically says that Raimondo would run as a Republican. And you’d have to think it would be much easier for him to get the Dem nomination than it would on the other side.

But the other strange item is that Raimondo says that he would “probably not” run if Hagel stays in. Well, right now Hagel is raising money and bringing Senators in for fund raisers. He sure seems like he’s planning to run. If so, why would Raimondo even bother?

Well here’s another odd note, courtesy of the Washington Post today. At the very bottom of the Reliable Source column, you see the following:

HEY, ISN'T THAT . . . ?
Mike Bloomberg and Chuck Hagel dining together last night at the Palm. The New York mayor had a New York strip steak, the Nebraska senator had wild halibut, and each polished off a glass of merlot and mixed berries for dessert. They were deep in conversation for two hours; since both are mulling presidential bids, who was courting whom?

Now for those of you who aren’t aware, Bloomberg and Hagel are the top two in the strange little idea called “Unity ‘08”, the third-party plan for a bi-partisan ticket for President. People have been throwing this idea out to Hagel for a while now, and he generally swats it away with a laugh. But in the recent Salon.com article, Hagel said this:

“I've been briefed on what it is ... I think that that could end up a very credible effort. It would be a ticket. The American people, whether Democrat or Republican, are so fed up with Washington. They think both parties are in the pockets of big labor, big government or some big entities and the little guy doesn't have as much of a voice. The lobbyists, the lawyers, the special interests are huge. This place is entangled with the web of special interest in both parties. It's gotten worse.”

Now that’s hardly laughing it off, and with Hagel’s dinner-date with billionaire Mike Bloomberg, you wonder a little where Hagel’s head is these days.

The winds are still blowing…

Was the Mustache worth 845 votes?

We’re just throwing it out there.

But could the Ken Svoboda on the right have defeated Chris Beutler in the Lincoln Mayor's race?

Was the Cookie-Duster worth 845 votes?

Before losing to Bob Kerry, Dave Karnes was said to have floated the notion of sawing off his Soup-Strainer. Probably wouldn’t have made a difference in that race, but could the guy on the right have garnered a few more votes?

Now we’re not implying that the positions taken, statements made, experience, commercials, direct-mail and all that didn’t matter.

It’s just that when it comes down to eight hundred some votes, you wonder what small things may have tipped the scales.

You know… like the Nose-Neighbor…

(Here is a good summary of the campaign organizations by Deena Winter of the LJS.)

Odds on the New Mayor of Lincoln

Odds:
Beutler – 1:1
Svoboda – 7:2

Analysis:


Beutler
Positives:
Name ID
Perception as veteran of city government

Negatives:
Perception as a liberal tax raiser
Voter registration


Svoboda
Positives:
Gregarious
Successful businessman
Natural progression from City Council to Mayor

Negatives:
Perception of guy who didn’t mow the lawn
Roads money statement
Mustache (however, excellent if you want to be a P.I.)

We here on Leavenworth Street don’t always have the detailed insight on Lincoln city government that we may have on Nebraska’s largest city, but we do our best to follow. With that, our perception is that following the barely noticed (by voters) primary, this race has been Beutler’s to lose. There have been a few negatives he’s had to take on – the view that he got a cozy city job, that he has a record as a taxer in the legislature – but it looks like he has generally weathered them.

While Svoboda came in behind Beutler in the primary, if he could garner the rest of the opponent’s percentages, he could still come out on top. Svoboda comes off as a very likable guy, but that may not cut it. He has probably never gotten past the public’s view that he didn’t finish mowing the medians that he got paid for, and his relatively goofy statement about denying roads money to the rest of the state made him come off as a panderer at best.

The difference in this race will be turn-out. The higher the numbers that actually come to the polls should benefit Svoboda. But in the end, we don’t think that number will be enough to tip the scales for Svoboda, and our bet is that Beutler will be the next Lincoln Mayor.

But hey, what do we know???!! Give us your best insight Lincolnites! Tell us why we’re wrong (or right). We’ll be watching tonight...