Tuesday, May 01, 2007

Odds on the New Mayor of Lincoln

Odds:
Beutler – 1:1
Svoboda – 7:2


Analysis:


Beutler
Positives:
Name ID
Perception as veteran of city government

Negatives:
Perception as a liberal tax raiser
Voter registration


Svoboda
Positives:
Gregarious
Successful businessman
Natural progression from City Council to Mayor

Negatives:

Perception of guy who didn’t mow the lawn
Roads money statement
Mustache (however, excellent if you want to be a P.I.)

We here on Leavenworth Street don’t always have the detailed insight on Lincoln city government that we may have on Nebraska’s largest city, but we do our best to follow. With that, our perception is that following the barely noticed (by voters) primary, this race has been Beutler’s to lose. There have been a few negatives he’s had to take on – the view that he got a cozy city job, that he has a record as a taxer in the legislature – but it looks like he has generally weathered them.

While Svoboda came in behind Beutler in the primary, if he could garner the rest of the opponent’s percentages, he could still come out on top. Svoboda comes off as a very likable guy, but that may not cut it. He has probably never gotten past the public’s view that he didn’t finish mowing the medians that he got paid for, and his relatively goofy statement about denying roads money to the rest of the state made him come off as a panderer at best.

The difference in this race will be turn-out. The higher the numbers that actually come to the polls should benefit Svoboda. But in the end, we don’t think that number will be enough to tip the scales for Svoboda, and our bet is that Beutler will be the next Lincoln Mayor.

But hey, what do we know???!! Give us your best insight Lincolnites! Tell us why we’re wrong (or right). We’ll be watching tonight...

5 comments:

Eric said...

As a Lincolnite, I can say your analysis of our perceptions is pretty close to the mark.

I would also add that I don't think a lot of people see a substantial difference between the candidates policy-wise. This probably means more weight will be placed on personality, and all jokes aside, the mustache may end up playing a big role.

Eric said...

I think you're off... Svoboda has the momentum right now.

curbfeeler said...

God gave Svoboda a better looking face than Beutler. However, God didn’t give Svoboda a Stalin-like hairstyle and mustache. That is a conscious and unconscious expression of how Svoboda views himself.

Most people running for office try to avoid looking like a Columbian drug lord.

Eric said...

845 vote difference. I bet Ken wishes he had shaved.

Street Sweeper said...

Was the 'stache the difference maker??????