Don Speaking No Evil?

Don “The Stenmeister” Stenberg, decides against appearing at the latest debate with Pete Ricketts and David Kramer. Is this a good move?

It’s obviously not good for the voters. And it’s probably not good for the party -- making one of the major candidates look like a coward.

But in the words of Lumbergh in “Office Space”, “Ask yourself, ‘Is it good for the company?’” Is it good for the Donster? Will it get Donny the nomination?

On the plus side:
1) Donno’s a poor debater: On the issues, he’s probably going to get swept away by high-school debate champ Dave Kramer.
2) He’s a milquetoast kind of guy: He’s going to come across as a bedwetter, next to the charismatic Pete Ricketts.
3) He doesn’t have anything new to say: He’s pretty much said it all in his numerous past campaigns.
4) In theory he has the lead: Can a debate help him go up?
5) He’s getting free media out of it ANYWAY.

On the flip side:
1) No one really buys his “positive campaign” argument: It’s transparent and he looks disingenuous.
2) It makes him look like a big ninny: He’s running for the United States Senate – the “world’s greatest deliberative body”, yet he won’t deliberate with two young upstarts from Omaha? Geez.
3) Will the GOP voters ask, “If he can’t debate in his own primary, how can he beat Nelson?”

Because the S’Berger’s only benefit here can be to win the nomination. Which of course should be his first goal. Can’t face Earl B. Nelson if you don’t win the primary. But the primary voters also want to elect a winner, and if they realize that Stenny would get whipped in the general, then why go with him again?

Since here on Leavenworth Street we like to hear MORE arguments than less, we’ve got to give this political move on the part of the DS campaign the “thumbs down”. Trying to coast to the primary victory doesn’t cotton with Nebraska voters. This strategic move will go down as the reason The SS Stenberg sank.

Separated at Birth - GOP Governor's Race!

Tom Osborne and Harvey Keitel as Mr. White from "Reservoir Dogs"



Dave Nabity and Animal from the Muppets



and...

Dave Heineman and Bill Murray as Carl Spackler from "Caddyshack"

2nd Governor's Debate Review

If you’re reading this, and you didn’t watch the 2nd Governor’s debate, you owe Leavenworth Street. You owe big time. Because, that’s one hour and twenty-nine minutes that will never be returned. It was brutal. It was painful. It was boring. And we’re talking old-school boring. We’re talking about not-a-single-joke boring. We’re talking about not-a-single-pop-culture-reference boring. We’re talking about not-a-single-zinger boring. Three red ties. Three burgundy chairs. Three hours of dull government yakking. Ok, it just seemed like three hours. But still.

The winner: Tom Osborne.
He had detailed responses. Hs responses answered the questions that were asked. He brought his answers back to the common-man perspective quite often. Now don’t kid yourself: He still has that same excitement that was on display for every KFAB post-game show with Gary Saddlemeyer – in other words, none. But he pretty much nailed every question posed. Very solid job, and much better than the first debate where he provided few details.

2nd place: Tie between Nabity and Heineman.

Dave Nabity sounds great and looks great. His basic theme is good. But the rest of his schtick is starting to wear thin. He’s a common sense guy, and he wants to wring out government and fix it all back again and cut your taxes. Which is all fine in theory, and fine if you’re not running against two people with a fair amount of government experience who can answer questions in detail. But the only question which he came really prepped for was the water issue, and both Heinenman and Osborne knocked him down on it. His point is well taken (about driving away farming communities by paying farmers to not farm). But TO had a decent response, and posed some reality. And Nabity doesn’t offer a solution to the problem he posed. Other than to take a big look at it and DARNIT, fix it! And while we’re on the subject, Nabity! (as he referred to himself in the third person…twice) you really have no chance of winning. You’re running against an incumbent governor and the most popular guy in the state. Apparently you have plenty of cash to blow on this folly, but you really should come better prepared, just in case you want to run for another office again. Leave with a positive message, not just the doom and gloom about how this government stinks.

Dave Heineman, again, was waaaaay over prepared. He can answer a question like nobody’s business. But dangit if he doesn’t seem like he’s reading his answer from a teleprompter. I really think he has an ultra-mini one installed behind his corneas. And the sing-song quality his voice takes on during his memorized answers makes him sound like a shoo-in for the Moviefone guy job after the campaign is over. He started strong, but as time went on (and believe me, it WENT on) he lost any effect his answers may have had, and really began to blend into the scenery (if there had been any). And then there was the water question where he COMPLIMENTED Osborne! Come on Dave! Guess who your competition is? Playing nice positive guy is not going to do it here. Heck TO wasn’t above taking shots at you on the Medicaid issue (saying that DH had been doing too many studies and not enough action). The gloves have GOT to come off.

Loser: The Questioners! Yeesh. One question from Jane Monnich at KLIN was, “how would you foster economic development?” That’s your question? You’ve had days or weeks to prep, and that’s as good as you’ve got? Geez, at least get specific about SOMETHING. Make it a little interesting. Pleeeze! Other dude’s last question was, “If you could recreate local government from the ground up, how would you do it?” Because, THAT’s what the new Governor will do? Is this a civics class test? The only person who could ask a decent question was UNL student Jenna Johnson from the Daily Nebraskan. She had a great one about the proposed immigration law and a pretty good one about threats to the state (which Nabity decided to turn into an anti-state bureaucracy answer). Solid job by her. Probably will end up working somewhere out of Nebraska…

Short debate notes:

Candidates (meaning TO and Nabity(!)), your audience is watching on TV. Not the 300 students (who probably won’t even vote) in the Lied Center. Then again, no one was watching on TV either, so forget it.

Nabity’s plan for agri-tourism is to have hunters across the world come to Nebraska games, then go out hunting. Does this mean we’ll have to switch back from Field Turf to natural grass?

Nabity KILLED Heineman about DH’s tax plan only saving $40 per person per year. Heineman never countered this attack. DH should have responded in some way.

Osborne KILLED Heineman about DH’s budget increasing spending by 14%. Heineman never countered this attack. DH should have responded in some way.

Heineman set himself apart on the immigration issue (doesn’t think illegal aliens’ kids should get in-state tuition). This could be a good wedge issue for him. It’s easy to understand, and goes to the core for lots of voters. Wouldn’t be surprised if we see TV ads on this topic.

Heineman’s close is, “If you like the way things are going in Nebraska, vote for me.” I’m not sure if people do, but the question reminds me of Scott Frost standing up after the Tennessee game, and saying , “If you think Michigan could beat us, vote for them.”

And TO closed, with, “you’ve known me for 35 years, and you can trust me.” Ok Tom, let’s be clear here, ok? We’ve known you in government for five stinkin’ years, and let’s just stick to that. Those other 30 years, you were a football coach. You had a great run at the end. A bunch of those other years I recall that you couldn’t win the big one, regularly got ripped by Barry Switzer, couldn’t win a bowl game and were in charge of Lawrence Phillips and Jason Peter. So let’s stop acting like being football coach is somehow the great job prep for Governor. Except for the jock-sniffers; they love that stuff.

Folks, you may be on your own for the rest of these miserable debates. And by the way, for the next one, I want to see all the candidates in flannel shirts, sitting on hay bales. This is Nebraska, dangit! Show some pride!

Governor's Debate Review (Coming tomorrow)

As PAINFUL as it will be, Leavenworth Street WILL be providing you a comprehensive, opinionated review of the 2nd Governor's debate, tomorrow. Just keep a firm grip on your pants until then.
(And feel free to ease back in the rich burgundy leather of the seat above -- as featured in the Gov's debate!)

DK: Before and After at the OWH

I'm not sure what sort of influence Leavenworth Street has, but let's just agree that the OWH did the right thing on changing this David Kramer photo.

The camera adds HOW many pounds?

The Omaha World Herald still thinks David Kramer is his former Rolling Doughnut self. (Kramer unveils an energy strategy - OWH - 3/25/06) The guy has lost easily an Olsen twin's worth of poundage (see below), but the OWH insists on running an OLD photo of him weighing in at his old truck-scale size. Come one OWH. You know how many words a picture is worth. How about giving the guy a little credit.

Whither the Nebraska Democrats?

(Say it in your favorite Jerry Seinfeld style!)

What’s the deal with all the Nebraska Democrats switching parties? (Some switch party for primary – OWH – 3/24/06 – and note the OWH’s instructions on how to switch!)
Since Warren Buffett switched to vote for TO, there’s an apparent rush by Dems to be able to get their two cents (/vote) in on who will be the GOP nominee and probably next Governor. (And btw, I love how much confidence they have in Dave Hahn. Way to go Nebraska Dem party…)

This is Osborne’s fault, to a certain extent. Osborne is the least conservative / most liberal of the Nebraska GOP Congressional delegation (see National Journal’s 2005 Vote Rankings for Nebraska) and bringing in Buffett has started this pseudo-tide. Will Osborne or Heineman or Nabity take advantage of this draw? Waits to be seen. But keep in mind that Ben Nelson won his first Gov’s primary by a handful of votes.

And how will all this affect the GOP Senate primary? Any Nebraska Dem who’s willing to switch to the GOP to vote for Governor will most likely be an Earl B. Nelson lover. So will that Dem/new GOP voter vote for the Republican Senate candidate he or she feels is LEAST likely to give Nellie a run for his money? Oh what a mess this could be….

And a few other quick hits:

What's the deal with the Pro-Lifers? Nebraska Right to Life endorses just about everyone else in every other race, but just takes Dave Heineman in the Gov’s race? Of course they’re a political group, but Osborne must have as good a record as DH, no? How ‘bout this for a litmus test: “Would you sign the South Dakota bill as is?” Has anyone else seen this question answered by the candidates?

What's the deal with Don Stenberg's campaign? Does he have one, or does he just run around in his legal briefs? Donno Stenberg has presented his Nebraska Class I school issue to the Supremes. Whether or not they grant cert, The Donster gets another round of free media. Which leads to the question of…

What’s the deal with the deafening SILENCE in the Senate GOP race? Shall we take it that this is going to be a battle royal in the final weeks when everyone decides to spend their money? Other than Stenberg, who’s creating any free media?

What is the deal with Julie Haney's hair? Can anyone take anyone in the City/County building seriously? (And can someone please tell me whose hairstyle Julie has? It’s not Mary Tyler Moore. But I know it’s not a Julie original…) Now THAT’s how you create free media Clerk of the District Court candidate Trish Lanphier! Word has it that Tom Barrett has asked his sister to fire him from a job bouncing at the Barleycorn, ya know, just for the press.

Omaha World Herald Governor's race poll

**Updated 5:00pm**

Over at the OWH they have an online poll about the Gov's race (GOP primary).
For what it's worth, (with staffers furiously clicking, clearing cookies, and re-clicking) here are the results as of 4:50pm today.
(See our review of the debate below.)

Heineman: 48%
Osborne: 37%
Nabity: 9%
None of the Above: 6%
(7723 votes)

annnnd..
Over at Omaha Channel 7, KETV, their poll goes like this:
Osborne: 45%
Heineman: 36%
Nabity: 19%
(1038 votes)

Of course, the KETV poll could have been influenced by the following email from the Osborne campaign:

From: YouandTom@OsborneForGovernor.org
To: xxxxxx
Date: Mon,20 Mar 2006 10:54:49 -0700
Subject: !! WE NEED YOUR DEBATE OPINION
!!!!!!!

Please
cast your
VOTE proving
TOM OSBORNE
WON THE 1ST DEBATE
RIGHT
NOW!!
ONLINE at
www.KETV.com
(On the
middle/lower side of the homepage)

Hmmm...

Nebraska Governor Debate review!

Dave Nabity: New slogan: Move that bus!
TO : Frank Solich, then Bill Callahan should be Governor after me.
Governor Dave: Get me a step stool!

Here’s the word on snowy Leavenworth Street on last night’s Nebraska Governor debate:

In short:

Dave Nabity: LIVELY! Dave had clearly the most energy, spoke the best and looked the best (though maybe the wrong tie). His problem came as he got revved up on a few of the questions that he probably wasn’t prepared for. I like him, but I’d want to prep him a little better and tone him down just a touch. Dave has the possibility of a great political future if he’s willing to take the time to run again after he loses this primary.

Tom Osborne: As dull as you remember him. TO is clearly on “coast” mode right now. Nearly every answer was “well, we really need to solve that important issue, and I think we can.” Details? Schmetails.

Dave Heineman: Winner, if for no other reason, he answered questions and provided details behind his answers. Here’s Dave’s problem (besides running against the state’s favorite jock): 1) He’s short! Nabity and Osborne each must be about 6’3”. Dave H is about 5’8”. His chin barely made it over the podium. He needed that Mike Dukakis riser to assist him. (There’s really no significance in this. Just a cheap observation.) 2) He was waaaaay over prepared. So much so, that he stumbled over his prepared answers, and his responses had a sing-song quality to them that makes you fall asleep.

I’d be curious to know the ratings of this debate that went up against basketball, and well, pretty much anything else that might have been on TV.

In long:

Nabity: His answer to a question on how to deal with meth dealers: Arm the population and let them seek out the meth dealers! Did I hear that right? Dave Nabity is in favor armed vigilante posses roaming the streets? Yikes! Also, every one of Dave’s answers involved lowering taxes. And I get that he’s a conservative, etc. But at some point, you have to just give an answer that sounds governorly, and just banging away at the “I’m a businessman, lower taxes!” mantra, gets old. A little polishing and Dave could have a serious future. (And I liked his "Extreme Home Makeover" reference, if only becuase it showed that he has some slight knowledge of pop-culture.)

Osborne: Pretty much just re-explained every question thrown to him. And then in his close, he gave this extraordinary statement: being the Nebraska football coach is “one of the most important jobs in the state”. Reaaaaallllllly? Well I’m glad you think so, Tom. And here I thought doctors, nurses, teachers, fire fighters, police officers, and clergy were right up there. But apparently not. Apparently it’s football coach of a bunch of twenty year olds that’s the most important. Let alone, the heads of the universities and professional schools, entrepreneurial business people, CEOs of major corporations and, oh I don’t know, parents. I’m glad you’ve put yourself on that pedestal. Because going for 2 against Miami means you’re VERY important? Geez.

Heineman: In his close, Governor Dave referenced his going to West Point, which I only knew because of his soldier photo on his web page. But then he said he went to Ranger school after he got out? Why am I just learning about this now? Heck, the Heineman campaign should just run one of those Army commercials and superimpose DH’s face on one of the guys.

In the end, Leavenworth Street denizens, we should all consider that 1) Hardly anyone watched this thing (unless you’re a politico type); 2) NO ONE will watch the other debates (even you politico types); 3) It’s going to take some serious media buys to wrest this race from TO.

Those are the facts, folks. Get used to them.

Separated at Birth - 3rd District Style!

Today we bring you the Nebraska 3rd District GOP Congressional Candidates (the ones with a shot anyway...)

GI Mayor Jay Vavricek and David Letterman


Osborne Ag guy John Hanson and Chris Penn


or
Hanson and John Candy


or
Hanson and Chris Farley


and finally...
Adrian Smith and a Fisher Price Little Person

Drawing a Line in the Sand(hills)

Republican 3^rd Congressional District Primary Odds!

Adrian Smith 2:1
Jay Vavricek 4:1
John Hanson 10:1

Reasoning:

Adrian Smith

From the curb of Leavenworth Street State Senator Smith seems to be an assertive, aggressive campaigner, and a good fundraiser. He appeals to the social conservatives on the right – the ones who vote in the primary. He also has the cashe - clearing $200K+ in the bank.

Jay Vavricek

The Mayor of Grand Island has the GI voting base, but word is he's having trouble getting a good message across. If he gets GI, he has a solid base to get the nomination (and these odds could flip). But if Mr. Smith chips away there, V's chances get slim.

John Hanson

Hanson, TO’s Ag guy, is smart, but not assertive enough for this day to day cut-throat primary. He’s not raising enough money and is primarily relying on TO’s coattails. That, likely, won't be enough. Hanson is viewed as the Moderate of the group -- death to a Nebraska primary candidate (see Bromm, Kurt).

Coming tomorrow!
See this gang’s Separated at Birth photos!

See previous odds for the Senate and Gov's race.

Note: As mentioned before, this series on odds for the Nebraska elections is for amusement purposes only, and should not be seen as endorsement for illegal gambling or a guide for your NCAA brackets.

Checkmate

Out on the snowy lanes of Leavenworth Street, there used to be a view that somehow, somewhere, Dave Heineman could beat Tom Osborne in the GOP Governor’s primary. Oh sure TO is the King, and he’s beloved, yadda, yadda; but there still seemed to be a shot for Dave H. if he just got the right message and attack and whatever else.

Well kids, not anymore.

I don’t care if good ol’ Tom stars in “Brokeback Mountain 2 -- Electric Boogaloo”. With the news about Warren Buffett essentially taking over the state government (Buffett shifting parties to vote for Osborne – OWH – 3/14/06), TO is going to make it ugly.

Now you can argue that Buffett’s job with Ahnold in Culleefohnea has been less than perfect. And you can argue that Buffett is a big supporter of Hillary. And you can argue that Buffett is pro-choice. Dudn’t matter. If you were going to list the Olympian gods of Nebraska, those two would be one and two, and we could fight for awhile about the order.

So right now I’d advise Dave to start stealing as many towels and match books with the Governor’s seal on them now, because the ride has come to an abrupt, screeching halt.

And one other thing: with the embarrassment of riches that he will have, if Tom Osborne goes negative on any of his opponents for the rest of the campaign, he’ll lose any and all respect he may have had here on Leavenworth Street. Tom, you’re leading Middle Tennessee St. 64 to 3: it’s time to put in the reserves.

Reader Note: We’ll be coming in the next few days with our odds for the 3^rd District GOP Primary.

Who Can Outrace Earl?

The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza writes today about which US Senate seats nationwide are the most likely to be turned from one party to the other (The Friday Line: GOP's Worrisome Senate Landscape – Washington Post – 3/10/06). Coming in at #8, the Nebraska race! Chris writes:

We weighed whether to put Sen. Ben Nelson (D) or Washington's Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) in this slot, but decided on Nelson. Why? Because we just couldn't ignore President Bush's 33-point victory in the Cornhusker State in 2004 or Nelson's narrow margin over a lackluster candidate in 2000. Nelson is an extremely smart politician with a staff that knows politics, and he's not likely to give former Ameritrade executive Pete Ricketts (the likely Republican nominee) many openings. Nelson's recent endorsement by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is a sign of just how difficult it will be for Republicans to paint him as just another national Democrat. But given the state's huge demographic tilt against Nelson's party, we still expect this race to close considerably if Ricketts wins the GOP primary.

The view here on Leavenworth Street is that Mr. Cillizza is right; Ricketts is the only chance the GOP has to unseat Earl B. Nelson. Stenberg, though he may be a strong contender in the primary, has shown that he can’t beat Nelson in the general. And though David Kramer is tireless, he wouldn’t have the funds or the credibility to run against such a powerhouse as Nellie. While a lot can happen between now and November, GOPers have to consider this between now and May.

Unfairk Treatment

Poor Dave Nabity.

The guy tries to make a statement -- something about water -- and the Omaha World Herald screws up the headline. So all I can think is how unfairK the whole thing is (Water policies unfairk, Nabity says – OWH- 3/9/06).

Then, instead of just touting their own water policies, Heineman and Osborne HAMMER him!

“Heineman discounted Nabity's comments as ‘irresponsible, inappropriate and ill-informed.’ Said Osborne, ‘I don't understand where this is all coming from.’”

But, you know, the guy takes a good photo…

**UPDATE**

As of Friday morning this headline was repairked.

Senator WOODEN Spoon

No sooner do the denizens of Leavenworth Street sing the praises of Don Juan Stenberg, than ol’ Senator Earl B. Nelson goes and drowns out our chorus! Earl is hitting the airwaves and taking a deft shot at … Pete Ricketts!?

“I didn't grow up with a silver spoon in my mouth,” proclaims Senator Earl (DINO – Regency). (Nelson camp denies ad takes shots at Ricketts – OWH – 3/7/06).

What makes Earl’s defense of his Regency homestead interesting is that he makes it clear he is endorsing Ricketts for the GOP nomination. What else can we conclude other than Nelson’s peeps believe Ricketts is the most formidable competition? (Nelson also makes it clear that should any of his kids run for office, their opponents may claim they were born with their mouth full of the aforementioned spoon.)

Well, Earl B. has declared GAME ON against Petey.
Now Ricketts needs to convince the GOP electorate that he is the one who can beat Earl.

Don't Count Out Donno

While the news here on Leavenworth Street has been light over the past few days (because of personal business reasons) one candidate has been steadily keeping himself in the traffic lights. Old Donnie Stenberg has managed to keep himself relevant in the battle for the GOP US Senate nomination. But how? With paid media? Downing vats of coffee with skeptical farmers? Parades and stickers?

Nope, Donno has done this the old fashioned way, by making news.

Like Tip O’Neil said, All Politics is Local, and it doesn’t get much more local than the school district issue. Since DS has been the attorney on the side of the Class I school districts (Class I fight gets supreme effort -- OWH -- 3/5/06), he’s had his name and face in the papers on an issue that hits home to lots and lots of households.

Now on the curb of Leavenworth Street you’d probably hear that Stenberg’s position is sort of for naught now: The US Supremes are unlikely to intervene on this and in any case it will be decided by Nebraska voters in November when the issue is on the ballot. Does that make a difference?

NO, they all yell!

Any news is good news to the campaign, and with the name recognition and record, Sten-Sten may just be taking the lead in this bad-boy. Add on to that, that the US Supremes will be mentioning his name often when the issue of the Federal Partial Birth Abortion legislation comes up soon (you’ll remember the Nebraska state versions of this got struck down in Stenberg v. Carhart). You’ll hear that case and the Stenberg name all over the place, -- red-meat for the GOP primary crowd. Again, Don-boy won’t have to actually argue anything, but his face will be out there.

Don’t kid yourself; this will make it tough for Ricketts and Kramer. They can say what they WILL do all day long, but the Stenberger can say what he’s DONE.

With the Governor’s race sucking all of the air out of this primary campaign season, the odds on this race may be changing. Stay tuned.

Separated at Birth?

Dem Gov candidate David Hahn and CSI's William L. Peterson

or


David Hahn and the Wolfman