Suttle on a "journey"

We didn't count, but we would estimate that at his announcement for Mayor at the Slowdown last night, Jim Suttle talked about his "journey" for Mayor about 89 times. If he had tossed out a few references to the "connections" he has made with voters and passed out some roses, we would have sworn it was an episode of "The Bachelor".

In any case, Suttle's announcement wasn't bad, if not dull. The guy isn't going to rile anyone up with his speaking skills. As soon as he started talking the room seemed to deflate as he droned on in his sing-song style.

But we'll give him some kudos for announcing at a semi-interesting venue. His campaign has made it clear that they are hoping to piggy-back onto the Obama campaign's Omaha efforts -- announcing at a spot popular with the kids, taking up residence in the Obama camp's old HQ.

And it's an interesting plan. Except Obama's campaign was built on the cult of personality of its candidate (and hatred of the current office-holder). Neither of these is the case with this Mayor's campaign. (By the way, ask Congressman Esch how long Obama's coat tails are...)

We also found it curious that over and over Suttle talked about the one thousand jobs that he would create along the river. Green jobs. High-tech jobs. Jobs like they have out in that rich West Omaha, with their steak and their lobster and their dry martinis and...

Wait, what? Not a single mention of how or where such jobs would come from? Even though he has been planning this run for three out of the four years he has been on the Council? No matter. Hope! Change! O-Suttle! Right?

***

And then there was Suttle's attempt to 1) attach himself to outgoing Mayor Mike Fahey and 2) slam on Hal Daub.

Suttle made the shout-out to Fahey (for the benefit of all the Dems in the audience), yet anyone who pays any attention knows that Fahey "dislikes" Suttle. And "growth" along the Missouri corridor? You mean like that based on the new baseball stadium? Well, you'll remember that Suttle was one of the main opponents of the new stadium, and one of the main thorns in Mike Fahey's side during that entire debate.

Heck most people that know Mike Fahey, even those who don't agree with him politically, will tell you that the guy is easy to get along with and that you can sit down with him and enjoy a chilled adult beverage.

So it's telling that the one guy you hear that Fahey doesn't get along with is Jim Suttle.

And that dovetails into Suttle's attempt at cracking on Hal Daub.
You want division and strife coming from elected officials? Well then look no further than Jim Suttle. Many say that Hal Daub has mellowed in his older age. But Suttle is just getting warmed up.

And remember that Suttle would like to bring economic prosperity to the downtown area.

He said he wants to bring improvements to the arts. New music. Make Omaha a destination. Discuss a light-rail line.

Hmmmm. Now when did we seen this actually happen before? It's associated with a a huge new "center" downtown. It came after P.J. Morgan, but before Mike Fahey. Wait don't tell us! We'll come up with it if we just think a little bit...

***

We say Via Vaya Con Dios to our fellow blogger, PTG of the Plains Feeder who is retiring the blog.

We read you daily, and will find the blogosphere a lesser place due to your absence.

Suttle to announce Monday; Vokal to wait a week

Before we get to the news-news, first a Separated at Birth, after we saw this photo in yesterday's Washington Post:

Health and Human Services Secretary designate, former Senator Tom Daschle and talk show host Sally Jesse Raphael:

Is Daschle kidding with those specs? He reminds us of the time George Costanza picked out new frames and they turned out to be from the Gloria Vanderbilt collection.

**Update at 3pm**

We have been notified that Wonkette posted a very similar SAB late yesterday. We did not see that one before we did ours. And frankly, our is better...

***

The latest news we have on the Omaha Mayoral campaign front is that Councilman Jim Suttle will announce his candidacy this coming Monday -- moving up by a week from his previously planned date of December 1..

Not wanting to vie for press coverage on the same day (with another councilman named "Jim"), Councilman Jim Vokal's campaign will wait a week to tell us that Jimmy's going to run.

Don't think that there isn't gamesmanship going on here already. (And look for an OWH story on Sunday that discusses this very thing...)

***

In case you missed it, lame-duck Senator Chuck Hagel is taking his shots while he leaves office (and he can still make the news).

His latest attack is on frequent critic, media giant Rush Limbaugh. In a speech at Johns Hopkins, Hagel said:

Every country out there has their know-nothing party. And of course we're much educated by the great entertainers like Rush Limbaugh and others. I wish those people would run for office.

They have so much to contribute and so much leadership, and they have an answer for everything, and they'd be elected overwhelmingly if Rush would run for anything or any of those people. They love just to rip everybody else down and try to make fools of everybody, and they always have the answer.

Yesterday, Rush responded on the air to Hagel:

How embittered must he be to still be carrying around this? I mean, he's quitting, he's moving on to other things. I hear he's in line for an Obama cabinet spot.

We don't criticize and rip and run everybody down and make fools of everybody. I can't make a fool of you, Senator Hagel. Only you can do that.

I have an idea for Senator Hagel. Senator Hagel, why don't you try to become a talk show host? Let's see if you can make it in this world. Let's see if you can handle the give-and-take of talk radio, since being a Senator and having people criticize you is so difficult, let's see if you can handle this arena.

Beyond the name-calling where Hagel seems to be calling Republicans the "Know-Nothing Party", we would just like to note that Hagel has taken the road of intellectual surrender here. You've heard it before. Like the quarterback who tells the sportswriter to shut-up unless he has actually played the game. Hagel flails at the critic instead of the critique.

And this from the guy who told his colleagues to go sell shoes if they couldn't handle the pressure!

Heck, should Hagel then be prevented from criticizing the President since he never had the gumption to run for (let alone hold) that office? That's a dumb argument. And so is Hagel's.

But since the Senator is only willing to take criticism from those who have actually held office, we will re-offer this one:

Others have a consuming, burning hatred of George W. Bush as their dominant legislative priority. Those who carelessly throw out talk of "impeachment" are of the same stripe.

There is no place for blind hate, however disguised, in any legislative body.

Thank you former Congressman John Y. McCollister.

Vokal to announce Monday

City Councilman Jim Vokal will announce his candidacy for Mayor of Omaha this coming Monday, Leavenworth Street has been informed.

The news of Vokal's run isn't a big surprise, and should now conclude the "RunJimmyRun" campaign started a few months ago by a former co-worked of Vokal. Vokal has been raising money for some time now, and his organizational efforts can now kick-in and join the other major announced candidate in the field, former Mayor Hal Daub.

While an officially non-partisan race, both Vokal and Daub are Republicans, so it will be interesting to see who chooses what side between the two.

Add to the mix the other presumed major candidate, Councilman Jim Suttle -- a Democrat. But Suttle's relationship with present Mayor, Democrat Mike Fahey, is considered icy, and there is a huge question-mark as to whether Fahey would support a Suttle run. (Others would say there is no question -- that Fahey won't support Suttle.)

Will Fahey get involved in this race? Would it be likely that he would sit it out completely? And will he pull traditional Democrat supporters to whomever he may endorse? We wait. We wait.

***

The next big question, after Suttle announces, is: will anyone else jump in?

Retiring City Councilman Dan Welch is still "50-50" in his decision on whether or not to toss his hat. However as time, and donors, slip away, it will be more and more difficult for Welch to enter the race.

Is there anyone else? We have effectively canceled out the possibilities of Scott Hazelrigg, Brad Ashford, John Ewing and Pat Bourne. Any of them could, in theory, jump in, but that's not what we're hearing.

Nonetheless, we are still convinced that at least one more major candidate could make it interesting.

Any suggestions?
Any takers?

***

Former KETV Channel 7, photojournalist and talk show host Ben Gray has decided to give it a whirl for North Omaha's City Council District 2. The seat is currently held by former KETV reporter Frank Brown.

Brown has consistently refused to tell any of the media his intentions on whether or not he will run for re-election (we didn't bother). But of those "no comments", our favorite was Brown's response to his old station:

"I don't talk to channel 7."

Rrrrwrrowr! Well, there you go.

(But by giving them that response, didn't he technically talk to them, and thereby cancel out his statement? Shouldn't he just have hung up the phone? Or maybe he emailed that response, and he is willing to type, but just not talk. In which case, it's still confusing.)

Gray has an interesting background, having hosted the Sunday morning local talk show that would be on opposite "Davey & Goliath", "Jean's Story Time", "All Star Wrestling" and "Notre Dame Football" for years -- "Kaleidoscope". Gray hosted the program for nearly thirty years before retiring this year. You can't say he hasn't been focused on Omaha.

Gray also was an opponent of Senator Ernie Chambers's plan for the Omaha learning districts. Gray was notably quoted in the New York Times as saying, "This is a disaster." (Of course Brenda Council, who was just elected to Chambers's seat was also against the proposal.)

In any case, if Frank Brown does eventually tell the press whether he will run, that should set up an interesting battle in District 2. Two former Channel 7 personalities, both relatively well-known, fairly respected.

And in a district that was given a lot of political attention in the past few months. It is likely that those who recently became politically active will be looking to stay involved.

That could be a fun one to watch.

***

And just to keep things balanced, yesterday another candidate officially entered the race for Omaha Mayor. His name is Jerry Odom. He has his campaign website up and running as well -- ChangeForOmaha.com.

Now you have to hand it to people like Odom He probably wants the best for Omaha, etc., etc.

But the funny thing is, Odom's old website now links to his new Mayoral site.

And his old site? Well, that would be Odom for PRESIDENT!
Yes, Mr. Odom first had his sites set on 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Since party-pooper Obama is moving in, he is instead gunning for 1819 Farnam. Sure it's a step-down. But the commute is much easier.

***

(We apologize to any non-Omahans whom we are boring to tears. If there is some interesting Nebraska politics that you'd like to see discussed, email us or toss it in the comments.)

When the levy breaks...

Before we get into further analysis, first a Separated at Birth after the Hal Daub for Mayor announcement:

Hal's campaign manager/Guru (and former Mayoral Chief of Staff), Brinker Harding and sprituality Guru, Deepak Chopra.


***

At Hal Daub's announcement / press conference on Monday, Joe Jordan asked Hal if he was the new "grandfatherly", less-intense Hal Daub, as recently described by Lee Terry.

Hal blushed, thought about it, and gave a self-deprecating response to Jordan. It is definitely a message Daub would like to send to voters who remember a more combative Mayor (who had to endure a more combative City Council).

But later, Jordan asked Daub if he would raise taxes in these tough economic times. Here was the answer Daub gave:

The mill levy was sixty-two and a half cents a hundred, Joe if you remember, when I first had the chance to come on watch here for the citizens of our community.

And we lowered that mill levy to forty-two and a half cents.

It went up the year after I was out of office to I think forty-two and a half to forty-three – there was one tax increase in the last eight years.

Can you imagine what it would be like today if your mill levy was sixty-two and a half cents a hundred? Thirty-three percent higher than it is today? What that would mean to the citizens of our community.

We’ve got police, fire and pension unfunded liabilities, it’s about half a billion dollars all added up. That’s about twenty-eight million dollars a year. Lou is that about right? Twenty-eight years.

That’s, uh… one mill is roughly…two million? Property tax. So you’re looking at fourteen mills of property tax if you just look at that one very serious economic issue facing the next administration.

Yikes! Now THAT's the Hal Daub we remember.

Talking over the heads of the voters. Delving into the minutiae of policy while trying to explain a simple concept.

And that's the task for Guru Brinker Harding --reigning in the responses of his candidate. (Even though everyone knows that Daub's real campaign manager is Hal Daub). Here's how Hal might have / should-have answered that:

"As Mayor I lowered property taxes by over 30%. Even though we have to make priorities in spending, I plan on keeping them low, just like I did before."

Or something to that extent.

But Hal should never utter the words "mill levy" to voters again unless asked a direct question using those exact words.

Too often Daub wants to show how smart he is. (And the guy is truly a walking text book.)

But that only goes so far, until people's eyes glaze over.

From his brief Senate run to the current Mayoral quest, Daub has shown the ability to pause and think about an answer before blurting it out.

He would be well advised to do so before he gets into mill levies and sewer separation economics and Ways and Means Committee jargon. He needs to pretend he is speaking to those grand-children he is fond of. (It's easier for us to unnnerstan...)

***

Our commenters here on Leavenworth Street have been keen to discuss what many feel will be a three-man race in the Omaha Mayor primary -- Daub, Jim Suttle and Jim Vokal.

We could easily see it coming down to those three (as far as the serious candidates go).

Some believe that Suttle would cruise to the general as the only Democrat of the three. But we see party politics playing a much smaller role in this election. Not to mention the fact that Vokal represents a Democrat district. And with the lack of party identification on the ballot, voters are less likely to take that into consideration.

But can Vokal eke enough money out of big Republican donors (who pay attention to that stuff) to challenge Daub in the money race? We think he can.

As we've mentioned before, there are many local leaders who want to back a non-Daub horse. Suttle turns many off, so Vokal could be their go-to guy. And then all bets are off in the general.

But if that three-man field is it (for the big-boys), will that entice someone else to jump in?

A bigger player in the business community? Someone from outside City Hall? Or even another Councilman?

Not sure. But we still think this race is wide-open.

Home of the Brave

Thank you vets!

In the comments section, veterans please add a story you'd like to tell.
All else, add your thanks.

Daub is in, who else?

At 9:30 AM (CST) today, Hal Daub will make his re-stab at the Omaha Mayor's office official.

Daub has an office open at 114th and Center, a campaign manager, Brinker Harding (Tower Kountze is deputy manager) and, frankly, has been going full-bore for a while now.

He has been able to keep his name in the papers while serving as John McCain's Nebraska chairman, following up from his involvement on the MECA board.

Is he the odds-on favorite at this point? We would have to say yes. Mainly because of his early decision, name ID and likely early fund-raising.

But once he has a full-fledged opponent or two, the race will tighten quickly.

Councilman Jim Suttle is only waiting to formally announce. In the OWH, he said he has raised $180K.

Jim Vokal has yet to "decide" though his buddies started the "Run Jimmy Run" campaign, for that grass-roots groundswell. He also says he will be "prepared."

So who else is in?

We haven't heard from Dan Welch, but we have a feeling that with all the other aforementioned in, his name may get crowded out.

Scott Hazelrigg? We have heard that he is out, but then we haven't really had it confirmed. Anything is possible.

The fact of the matter is there are many in the community who are looking for a strong opponent for Hal Daub. Will they land on Suttle or Vokal? Or are they waiting for someone else?

Things will shake out...soon. This will become a money game.

Who else will ante up?

***

The news that Barack Obama took Nebraska's 2nd District Electoral Vote excited his supporters, and they should be commended.

Who shouldn't be as head-over-heels are the real local Democrats. The ones that vote in every election.

The cult of personality that eventually surrounded Obama is great for electing Barack Obama. But the lack of coattails shows that his supporters will likely only go so far.

They weren't interested in putting Jim Esch over the top. Apparently many had not even heard of Scott Kleeb.

If Obama's name isn't on the ballot (and he isn't bombarding the local airwaves), and George W. Bush's face isn't around, expect the 2010 turnouts to be shockingly lower for the Dems.

***

The Chuck Hagel sweepstakes are playing one final round. Much talk lately about him in an Obama cabinet post.

But Joe Morton of the OWH caught our attention with this line:

"In the end, the smart money might be that Hagel lends some advice to the new Democratic president but doesn't land a chair at the Cabinet table."

Joe, you had us at "smart money". But we also enjoy the Ben Nelson angle.

Nelson has publicly said that Hagel would be a swell Secretary of Something or Other.

But remember that Nelson was an early backer of Obama in Nebraska -- back when Hillary was a foregone conclusion for the nomination.

So if there is any payback for Nelson, not to mention keeping him happy as the leading conservative Democrat, expect Hagel to get black-balled.

And that ball will likely have an "EBN" on it.

All politics is local

Mistah Speakah, Tip O'Neill, said "All politics is local."

That applies to the results across Nebraska on Tuesday.

The national results, as expected, favored Barack Obama and the Dems. But local Republicans continued their dominance in Nebraska.

Mike Johanns. Jeff Fortenberry. Adrian Smith.

And then the closest race, Lee Terry

In Douglas County, the results for that part of the 2nd District Congressional race looked something like this:

Terry: 102,364
Esch: 99,551
2,813 dif

Compare that to the unofficial results for Douglas County in the Presidential race:
Obama: 104,026
McCain: 97,425
6,601 dif

Joe Jordan and others scoffed at the idea of the "Obama-Terry" voter.
Those numbers add some vindication.

***

While Leavenworth Street's predictions were off by at least 1% for the Presidential race in the 2nd District (we'll wait for those final results), we didn't do too bad for the Terry - Esch and Johanns - Kleeb over / under marks. (Nailed the Senate race percentage, and off by a half percent on the House race.)

Of course mea culpas (mea culpae?) are in order for the Fortenberry and Smith camps. For what it's worth, we originally had Fort getting 63%. But 70%? Whoops.

And then Adrian Smith pulling in 77%? Yikes. Those are Rep. Tom Osborne numbers. And we thought our prediction of 68% was generous.

***

And what to say of Senors Kleeb, Esch and Yashirin (and Stoddard)? Guys, valiant fight, and all that.

But next time, you might want to try a run for City Council before you reach for the gig in Washington.

It worked for Johanns, Terry, Fortenberry and Smith...

Mid-Election Day 2008

As we continue to search for those elusive exit polls, a few things on our radar this afternoon...

***

The OWH finds an Obama-Terry voter! Of course that voter was cancelled out by the McCain-Esch voter standing next to her. Much giggling ensued...

***

The Yale Daily News uses Leavenworth Street as their source for the latest Scott Kleeb article. Too bad they hadn't seen our latest Separated at Birth yet...

***

Want to see Lee Terry and Jim Esch vote?
(Well, then you should get a life.)
But in any case, KFAB captured that moment for history...

***

See something interesting? Want to shout out for your candidate? That's what the comments section is for...

Election Day Separated at Birth!

Happy Election Day!
Get out and vote already, wouldja!?

We will try to post what we find out today and tonight, but frankly, odds are you won't be finding any early exit polls here.

So what do you do in the mean time?

Well, first, take a look at this fine VIDEO Separated at Birth suggested quite some time back by a Leavenworth Street reader:

Scott Kleeb, and the Hombre Guy from "Friends".




And now, feel free to comment on all the big races and down-ballot races that you've been itching to talk about.

2nd District ODDS

Our final odds for this campaign year -- the 2nd Congressional District race.

Lee Terry -- 3:2
Jim Esch -- 2:3

Lee Terry over / under: 53%

The "polling" numbers in this race have been flying hot and heavy over the past few weeks. Except that we haven't seen the crosstabs for a single one. We asked a local reporter about the polls that everyone has been citing, and it was admitted that no one has seen the details.

With that in mind, we still understand that this race is likely close. Both sides are pouring money into it which gives the indication each thinks it is winnable, or close. Volunteers are trekking around for their GOTV efforts and the interest is high.

Except for one thing:

The real enthusiasm for Dems in the 2nd District is for Barack Obama. Jim Esch is an afterthought. Esch didn't even get into the race until Obama looked likely to take the nomination. He was gunning for 2010. And even in today's OWH, Esch, while talking about GOTV efforts says,

"It's clear Nebraskans want change in Congress and Barack Obama in the White House."

But that doesn't mean they want Esch there.

And that brings us back to the Terry campaign's secret weapon: Jim Esch.

Against a candidate with a stronger record, in this Democrat year, Terry could be having an even more difficult time. (Though hitting an opponent who has an actual record can be easier sometimes as well.)

Instead, Terry has had the opportunity to frame Esch: Unemployed, trust-fund baby who has no work experience to speak of in the past three years who wants to raise taxes.

But Esch says he's never SAID he want to raise taxes. But he wants to get rid of the tax cuts. (You do the math.)

And Esch had said that all energy resources were "on the table". Except just last week he changed his mind and said no drilling for American oil in ANWR.

And today? Esch proclaims to be "pro-Life". But then in an article on MSNBC.com, Esch said he would "probably" vote against Barack Obama's Freedom of Choice Act. "Probably"?!!! The bill that would wipe out state restrictions on abortions? Esch says that he "calls himself pro-Life". Probem is, that's not what others would call him.

So in the end, we think that the flaws that Esch has, and the generally positive outlook that Terry has with voters will win out for Terry. People want to like their Congressman, and Terry has given people the ability to do that. He has been an effective legislator and has the bills to prove it. He has been outstanding at constituent services, and people respond to that.

In 2004 Terry garnered 1% more of the vote -- 61% -- than President Bush.

We think this year he will similarly best McCain by 1%, and go 2 and 0 against Esch.

***

See our odds for:
1st and 3rd Congressional Districts
Nebraska U.S. Senate
NE-2 Presidential

NE-2 Presidential ODDS

Continuing on with odds (see NE-1 & NE-3 and Senate previously), we now focus on the McCain vs Obama race for the one Electoral Vote in Nebraska's 2nd District.

John McCain -- 3:2
Barack Obama -- Even

McCain over / under: 52%

Yup, we think this will be close. And we may even be giving Obama too much credit in this traditionally RED district.

But with the amount of cash the Obama camp originally put into western Iowa advertising -- via Omaha's media market -- and then with the offices and paid staff, they have definitely put NE-2 in play. Early voting numbers indicate that the Dems will do their best to make their mark.

But remember that Republicans out-register Democrats in this district -- both of whom are likely to vote along party-lines, making the difference makers the Independents.

In the past the I's have leaned Republican. In 2004, Bush carried the District with 60% of the vote.

So while we give Obama and the Dems their due, we don't think they can turn around 10%.

But, we think it could be close.

***

1st and 3rd Congressional District voters, give us your opinions on what the over / under for McCain will be in your district!

Nebraska - U.S. Senate ODDS

Continuing our posting of odds, we now come to the Nebraska's U.S. Senate race, to see who will succeed Chuck Hagel.

Mike Johanns -- 1:50
Scott Kleeb -- 150:1

(i.e., you would have to bet $50 to get a return of $1 if Johanns wins.)

Johanns over / under: 58%

As in the 1st and 3rd CD races, we don't see much of a chance that Kleeb could beat Johanns. Nonetheless, we left the odds up on this just to make it interesting.

The Kleeb camp is crowing right now that they have internal polling that shows them neck-and-neck with Johanns.

Riiiiiiiight.

Sort of like that poll he released right before the 2006 election that showed him up by 6%. You know, the race that he lost by 10%? So if the Kleeb polls are consistently off by 16%, then we figure numbers for Johanns of a 58% victory are about right.

We will summarize this race at a later time, but we would just like to point out that Kleeb has been running this race as if he has been ahead by 10%. He hasn't been specific on a single issue in his ads. 

He hasn't attacked Johanns in any of his ads -- though has no problem doing so in interviews or at the debates. So why wouldn't he do so in "issue ads"? We have no idea. He'd rather talk about roping, Chimney Rock and Nebraska values and figures that will coast him into Washington.

We don't think Scott Klebb ever had a chance against Johanns -- and frankly, no one in the Republican party figured they could beat him either. But the pure lack of any campaign theme by Kleeb has been mystifying. It is as if he has figured all along that he is going to get blown out, and thus just wants to leave voters with some happy face of his.

Well, we can guarantee that is not what his supporters or the rest of the party expected. Kleeb will have a lot of questions to answer after tomorrow.

Mike Johanns on the other hand, may become one of the most popular Senators in Nebraska history.

1st & 3rd CD ODDS

As in past elections, Leavenworth Street is here to post the odds for winners of the major races in tomorrow's election.

Below are the odds for the 3rd and 1st Congressional Districts.

At one hour intervals we will then post the odds for Nebraska's U.S. Senate race, the Presidential race in the 2nd District, and finally the 2nd Congressional District race.

As usual, these odds are not to be used for gambling purposes, unless you are in the States of Nevada, New Jersey or Carter Lake.

***

3rd Congressional District Odds

Adrian Smith: OFF THE
Jay Stoddard: BOARD

Smith over / under: 68%

We don't see any chance of Adrian Smith losing this race, so we have taken the odds off the board.

Smith's challenger, Jay Stoddard, has been a successful businessman. That being said, the 78 year old Stoddard hasn't raised any significant money, has had pretty much no advertising, and is wont to say things like, "I love this state and I believe I love it more than Adrian Smith."

Uh, OK Mr. Stoddard.

So why won't Adrian Smith get 100% of the vote? Because the turnout is going to be through the roof in this election and like it or not, the national wave of the Democrat party is going to splash Nebraska. Adrian shoes might get a little damp from that wave. 

Can Adrian hit the over on that 68%? We'll see tomorrow night.

Here is an ad Smith put out.

Here's the irony for you Democrats: If Scott KLeeb had run again 

against Adrian Smith there is a decent chance he would be making it competitive right now. 

Could he have won? Gee, we guess we'll never know will we? The 33 year old Kleeb thought it best to take on the juggernaut of Mike Johanns. Oh well...

***

1st Congressional District Odds

Jeff Fortenberry: OFF THE
Max Yashirin: BOARD

Fortenberry over / under: 60%

As in the 3rd District race, we don't see any way Jeff Fortenberry loses his race tomorrow, therefore we have completely pulled it off the board.

Max Yashirin, a very young veteran but otherwise with less experience than Jim Esch or Scott Kleeb (and that's saying something), somehow got thrown into this election. 

Again, we're amazed that Lincoln area Democrats couldn't come up with a decent candidate against Fort. Sure he demolished a very credible candidate in Maxine Moul in 2006. But come on. Max?

Anyway, we are going to place Fort's numbers at 60%. There are plenty of Dems in the 1st who will vote Obama/Yashirin, so Max will get some votes. And he could even push Fort down to the 50's. But after tomorrow, the Dems best chance of getting rid of Fortenberry will have vanished.

***

U.S. Senate odds coming at 10:30 AM CST.

What are the odds...

Odds for the major races by Leavenworth Street coming VERY soon...

2008 Final spots

Closing Lee Terry ad, a surprise endorsement (sort of)...
See it here:



We like the spot with Governor Dave. And the positive testimonials are good.

What we're not crazy about is describing Jim Esch as "just another politician".

That's being too complimentary. In order to be a politician, he'd have to have held a job as such. When you haven't held a job, then run for office you're a...wanna be.

Calling him a politician gives a bad name to politicians...

***

Et Tu, Lou Ann?

The Esch for Congress camp introduced their October/November surprise by getting the "endorsement" of one Lou Ann Linehan.

Linehan used to be Chief of Staff for Senator Chuck Hagel. She even ran the GOP's statewide election efforts back in 2006. Of late she has been in Iraq, working in the Green Zone as a "computer specialist" for the State Department. To our knowledge she is not a Nebraska voter.

Does she know Jim Esch? Has she met Jim Esch? We don't know.

But we do know that her DAUGHTER works for the Jim Esch campaign.

So the Linehan endorsement, as it were, is essentially a Full Employment Act push for the Linehan family.

But you know, nice job of Linehan abusing her old job title so her kid can try to swing a job in Congress. Interesting way to close out her career in Republican politics.

In the end we believe the impact of this endorsement will be right up there with Chuck Hagel's wife's push for Obama.

***

And Scott Kleeb finished out his campaign with one final banality.
In this one he stands in front of Chimney Rock. See it here:



Wow, we're speechless. What a campaign.