Monday, November 03, 2008

2nd District ODDS


Our final odds for this campaign year -- the 2nd Congressional District race.

Lee Terry -- 3:2
Jim Esch -- 2:3

Lee Terry over / under: 53%


The "polling" numbers in this race have been flying hot and heavy over the past few weeks. Except that we haven't seen the crosstabs for a single one. We asked a local reporter about the polls that everyone has been citing, and it was admitted that no one has seen the details.

With that in mind, we still understand that this race is likely close. Both sides are pouring money into it which gives the indication each thinks it is winnable, or close. Volunteers are trekking around for their GOTV efforts and the interest is high.

Except for one thing:

The real enthusiasm for Dems in the 2nd District is for Barack Obama. Jim Esch is an afterthought. Esch didn't even get into the race until Obama looked likely to take the nomination. He was gunning for 2010. And even in today's OWH, Esch, while talking about GOTV efforts says,
"It's clear Nebraskans want change in Congress and Barack Obama in the White House."
But that doesn't mean they want Esch there.

And that brings us back to the Terry campaign's secret weapon: Jim Esch.

Against a candidate with a stronger record, in this Democrat year, Terry could be having an even more difficult time. (Though hitting an opponent who has an actual record can be easier sometimes as well.)

Instead, Terry has had the opportunity to frame Esch: Unemployed, trust-fund baby who has no work experience to speak of in the past three years who wants to raise taxes.

But Esch says he's never SAID he want to raise taxes. But he wants to get rid of the tax cuts. (You do the math.)

And Esch had said that all energy resources were "on the table". Except just last week he changed his mind and said no drilling for American oil in ANWR.

And today? Esch proclaims to be "pro-Life". But then in an article on MSNBC.com, Esch said he would "probably" vote against Barack Obama's Freedom of Choice Act. "Probably"?!!! The bill that would wipe out state restrictions on abortions? Esch says that he "calls himself pro-Life". Probem is, that's not what others would call him.

So in the end, we think that the flaws that Esch has, and the generally positive outlook that Terry has with voters will win out for Terry. People want to like their Congressman, and Terry has given people the ability to do that. He has been an effective legislator and has the bills to prove it. He has been outstanding at constituent services, and people respond to that.

In 2004 Terry garnered 1% more of the vote -- 61% -- than President Bush.

We think this year he will similarly best McCain by 1%, and go 2 and 0 against Esch.

***

See our odds for:
1st and 3rd Congressional Districts
Nebraska U.S. Senate
NE-2 Presidential

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27 comments:

macdaddy said...

Because I'm sure everyone is dying to know (haha), here are my predictions: for Johanns, Smith, and Fortenberry, I'm going to use the Price is Right strategy and predict SS's picks + 1 %. For McCain in NE-2 and Terry, I'll give them both 55%. I see Obama getting hammered with the socialist tag, and I don't see anything from Esch to counter Terry's charges that he'll raise taxes on everybody and everything.

But I have no insider info, so I'll be waiting for 8:05 pm tomorrow night just like everyone else.

Anonymous said...

Oh hell, it's going to be a lot longer night in NE-02 than people expect. I bet the lines will be longer than anyone imagines.

My Predictions:

Smith 60
Stoddard 40

Fortenberry 55
Yashirin 45

Terry 48
Esch 52

McCain 49
Obama 51

Anonymous said...

and:

Johanns 51
Kleeb 49

OmaSteak said...

Terry wins by 5-7% but will have a serious Republican primary challenge in 2010. Esch loses due to heavy turnout in western Omaha/Douglas county and Sarpy county. McCain wins 52-48. Johanns wins 65-35.

Anonymous said...

Terry 51-48 only because the National Republican Party put almost a million dollars in for negative personal attacks this last month.
Why wasn't it ever mentioned that Lee Terry broke his term-limits pledge, that he admitted he sits at "the kiddie table", that he opposes A Minimum wage, not just an increase in the m wage but A minimum wage....

asecurityguard said...

Im calling it 52-48 Esch. 1 Million dollars is alot of money on negative and false advertising. That turned alot of people off of Esch, and alot of people off of Terry. You can go negative without getting personal, when Esch went negative it was about terry's record, not terry himself.
The RNCC and DNCC never did a positive ad for either of there respective candidates, always slinging mud. How pathetic...

Anonymous said...

When was there a positive ad for Esch? He didn't even put one out about himself that I ever saw?

Anonymous said...

lee terry's campaign manager is a contributing author of this blog. how's the kool-aid?

Street Sweeper said...

Just for the record, that is false.
-SS

Ryan the Angry Midget said...

Stunning analysis, I mean opinion. I'm completely shocked that a conservative echo chamber like this one thinks Terry is going to win. Denial is the first stage of the grieving process. I'm sure anger will appear sometime in the next 48 hours.

Vanilla Ice said...

Terry 52%.


Johanns 59%.


McCain will get 58% in NE.

Obama wins nation in electoral landslide.

Anonymous said...

Esch is going to win. Terry voted with George W. way too many times and people are mad about that. Lee Terry is way too entrenched with the losing team. So that, along with all of his negative ads that were below the belt, will push Esch over the edge.

Go Congressman-elect Jim Esch!!

Anonymous said...

There is absolutley no way that Esch has a chance. Just like Nancy T., Lee pulls away and says goodbye!!!

Anonymous said...

Lee 56%

Esch 44%

GO back to your loft!

Anonymous said...

Terry will win 51-49. He will then go back to DC and vote to keep sending Esch and the rest of the farmers in this state their welfare checks.

macdaddy said...

I love this blog! wowwowowowowowow

ikw said...

Anoyn 3:18pm - NO, Boomer is not that gutsy or the author of this blog, but the Governor's Spokeswoman is not.

She drank wayyyyyyyy too much of the Terry Mafia Kool-Aid.

Anonymous said...

ikw update: The Governor's Spokeswoman is the author of this blog and will be exposed in the next 10 days.

Tim said...

The big thing that separates Esch from the rest of the Dems is how he has taken a stand against Ms. Buffett and ACORN about voter fraud.

Remember he was bold in his heartfelt desire for fair elections, not letting people STEAL our most critical right.

NO!!! NO!!! ---- it must have been Obama speaking out against ACORN.

NO!!! Maybe it was Scott Kleeb that wants better voter id --- or was it more advantageous as COMMUNITY ORGANIZER to rationalize "it is OK to steal and lie" to get what your bosses,ACORN, want.

Hmmmmm!!! Let me list all ranking Democrats that have stepped forward condemning ACORN and its off shoots for destroying the fabric of our country!!!!

LIST: _______________________

_______________________

_______________________

_______________________

_______________________


We all want to thank those listed about for their character!!!!

Anonymous said...

Let me list Republicans who took a stand against Diebold, ESS and their lousy machines that could steal an election also via fraud.


LIST: ______________
____________________
____________________
____________________
____________________
____________________
____________________

NO!!! Maybe it was Lee Terry that wants better technology --- or was it more advantageous as a supporter of BIG BUSINESS to rationalize "it is OK to steal and lie" to get what your bosses,the Chamber of Commerce, want.

Hmmmmm!!! Let me list all ranking Republicans that have stepped forward condemning these companies and its off shoots for destroying the fabric of our country via their shitty technology.!!!!

I personally want to thank those Republicans who took a stand. Oh wait, there has been none.

You're calling the kettle black on that issue. Whatever!

Anonymous said...

So as I have been saying for weeks,

It will be McCain/Johanns/Terry...

I have stuck with Terry the whole way, and whether it is close or not ya just need 1 to be a win. Now even NNN is calling for a Terry win.

Now let's get a good night's rest and get to the polls early.

Anonymous said...

hey did you all hear about the guy who electrified his yard sign? So some kid swoops in and grabs the sign..... and it turns out the kid was being driven by his dad, and they were out taking signs! So the dad is upset and goes to the homeowners door all upset.

Now how is it this stuff happens?

Let's see you are encouraging a minor to commit trespassing and theft, get caught at it and then complain?

Mabe the next time you don't go STEALING signs!

Don't they have a Stupid Criminals page somewhere for stuff like this?

Han Solo said...

Never tell me the odds...

tim said...

TO ANON 9:26 PM

I think my point is proven. Liberal elites are not interested in reaching across party lines to make this a better country, you are only interested in CHEATING better than your opponent!!!!!

Way to go!!!!!!!

I really like the video where the father sent his 9 year old to take down a McCain sign. If we all start hatred early, like the muslims and you nurture hatred for a lifetime we will never be a GREAT COUNTRY again.

macdaddy said...

macdaddy 7:58: Get your own &*(^&*^ name!

Anonymous said...

Um, who was it that tried to correct the problems in 2000 with Help America Vote Act??

My Congressman is a physicist and yours is stupid.

Just goes to show that Republicans use technology companies to try and steal elections. Last time I looked it was required by law to send in any forms filled out no matter how silly and it is the responsibility of the election commissioner's office to determine if they are valid or not.

Furthermore, this goes to show that no matter what side you are on. Petition signer people and those who get people to register are a crock of shit especially if they get paid.

Anonymous said...

Furthermore, I am not part of the liberal elite. I am part of the Conservative base that is angry and pissed off at all sides.