Continuing on with odds (see NE-1 & NE-3 and Senate previously), we now focus on the McCain vs Obama race for the one Electoral Vote in Nebraska's 2nd District.
John McCain -- 3:2
Barack Obama -- Even
McCain over / under: 52%
Yup, we think this will be close. And we may even be giving Obama too much credit in this traditionally RED district.
But with the amount of cash the Obama camp originally put into western Iowa advertising -- via Omaha's media market -- and then with the offices and paid staff, they have definitely put NE-2 in play. Early voting numbers indicate that the Dems will do their best to make their mark.
But remember that Republicans out-register Democrats in this district -- both of whom are likely to vote along party-lines, making the difference makers the Independents.
In the past the I's have leaned Republican. In 2004, Bush carried the District with 60% of the vote.
So while we give Obama and the Dems their due, we don't think they can turn around 10%.
But, we think it could be close.
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1st and 3rd Congressional District voters, give us your opinions on what the over / under for McCain will be in your district!
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6 comments:
I have McCain at 55% over/under in the first. LIncoln may well go for Obama, but we have enough rural counties to balance that off.
Johanns at least 60% in the first. Fortenberry 65%. Prop. 424 probably 63% in the first, 67% statewide.
And Tim Clare over Earl Scudder in the nastiest Regents race I've ever seen. I've never seen two guys fight so viciously for a pair of football tickets and the right to rubber-stamp the UN administration.
RWP,
McCain at only 55% in NE1? I think you sell yourself and fellow repubs short.
Im calling NE2 dead even for president. The higher the voter turnout the better the odds are for Obama, and there will be a trickle down effect with Kleeb and Esch boosting there numbers. If i was being forced to make a call in NE2, 51-49 McCain wins it.
Obama will win Omaha but because of Sarpy County he will lose to McCain in the Second District. Republicans can always count on oabout 85% of the Sarpy County vote because of the military and how much they support war in Iraq.
fivethirtyeight has both districts 1 and 2 pretty close (although 2 is closer). I live in the 1st district and know quite a few Republicans who have already cast an early vote for Obama. Look for McCain to only get a couple more points higher than the 2nd district.
If Bush tore up the constitution and decided to run for a third term, I am convinced he would get an electoral vote from NE's 3rd. So McCain should win easily.
Barack has a chance in the 2nd District only if an incoming bootstrapper accidentally dumps a nuke on Sarpy County. We can dream.
Anon 7:09: you stay classy!
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