Monday, November 03, 2008

Nebraska - U.S. Senate ODDS

Continuing our posting of odds, we now come to the Nebraska's U.S. Senate race, to see who will succeed Chuck Hagel.

Mike Johanns -- 1:50
Scott Kleeb -- 150:1

(i.e., you would have to bet $50 to get a return of $1 if Johanns wins.)

Johanns over / under: 58%

As in the 1st and 3rd CD races, we don't see much of a chance that Kleeb could beat Johanns. Nonetheless, we left the odds up on this just to make it interesting.

The Kleeb camp is crowing right now that they have internal polling that shows them neck-and-neck with Johanns.


Sort of like that poll he released right before the 2006 election that showed him up by 6%. You know, the race that he lost by 10%? So if the Kleeb polls are consistently off by 16%, then we figure numbers for Johanns of a 58% victory are about right.

We will summarize this race at a later time, but we would just like to point out that Kleeb has been running this race as if he has been ahead by 10%. He hasn't been specific on a single issue in his ads. 

He hasn't attacked Johanns in any of his ads -- though has no problem doing so in interviews or at the debates. So why wouldn't he do so in "issue ads"? We have no idea. He'd rather talk about roping, Chimney Rock and Nebraska values and figures that will coast him into Washington.

We don't think Scott Klebb ever had a chance against Johanns -- and frankly, no one in the Republican party figured they could beat him either. But the pure lack of any campaign theme by Kleeb has been mystifying. It is as if he has figured all along that he is going to get blown out, and thus just wants to leave voters with some happy face of his.

Well, we can guarantee that is not what his supporters or the rest of the party expected. Kleeb will have a lot of questions to answer after tomorrow.

Mike Johanns on the other hand, may become one of the most popular Senators in Nebraska history.

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macdaddy said...

Kleeb's run is certainly mystifying and encouraging. If this is the new strategy for the Nebraska Democrat party, to run hipster doofuses with no experience and who refuse to be clear about the issues that matter to Nebraskans, then I say, "Awesome!"

Anonymous said...

Like Mike Bushanns is giving out any details. The man is the master of speaking without substance, and with words not backed up by actions.

asecurityguard said...

This was a huge uphill race for Kleeb. All repubs backed out when they saw that Johanns was in, Kleeb just doesn't have much of a chance.
I like alot of his ideas and the way he campaigned. It was smart not to go negative against a popular former Governor, when you go negative against someone who alot of people like it makes you look like an asshole. He took it to him during the debates because he could 1 on 1 and win, which he did. And i really like that he was the first one to talk about the mounting national deficit, and he had several tv ads on the subject. I dont believe we can trust any repub with a budget anymore, and that is pathetic for the party of 'fiscal discipline".

Pipsisewah said...

What good does it do to go negative? Plenty of things were brought out about Iron Mike, but only a couple of media groups made it public. Talk about a biased, conservative press. I've always wanted to say this to the Leavenworth Kids, "So keep on drinking the Kool Aid." It will taste like it has the last eight years. The Pip will close out this election cycle by saying "And Mike Johanns went to Washington DC to be with Adrian Smith, where they were never heard from, again."
One last time, Vote Kleeb!!!

Anonymous said...

Though Kleeb tried very hard to outnebraska Johanns by being even more boring than Johanns, it didn't work. He would have had to go into a coma to appeal to Nebraskans love of stiffs.