Kerrey: No questions asked…if you’re RICH!

Hey, attention rich people! If you are rich, then you’re A-Oh-Kay with New York's New School President Bob Kerrey.

You got your money through Ponzi schemes? You've defrauded investors in your shell corporations? You have a criminal background?

No problem…as long as you’re rich!

In fact, if you’re rich, he’d like you on the board of The New School, no questions asked! No investigation into your background will be necessary (though giving $100,000 to his school will certainly help you to become one of the trustees).

This, all according to Cosmic Bob Kerrey, as reported in the Los Angeles Times today. (Wealth, mystery surround donor Hsu – L.A.Times – 8/31/07.) Many campaigns such as Hillary Clinton’s and Barack Obama’s are scurrying away from the nefarious “Democrat donor” and New School Board of Trustees member Norman Hsu. But not Kerrey! He is saying, Hey man! What’s the problem? No big deal, dude! Or to quote Kerrey more precisely, “This isn’t Osama Bin Laden…”

So just so we’re clear: unless you’ve masterminded international terrorism, Welcome to Bob Kerrey’s Board of Trustees! Please leave your check at the door. Because as Rockin’ Bob puts it, “My presumption is that (you’re) rich.”

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As many of you have read and probably figured, our Chuck Hagel Countdown clock to the right is going to be hitting zero soon, probably without an announcement from the Chuckster himself. We have a feeling it will be more like within the next two weeks. (We’re not sure what happens to this clock, but we think/hope it starts counting forward from there.)

In the mean time, if you add a comment to this post, please put down your prediction (under something other than “Anonymous”) for when you think Chuck will make his announcement about his Senate run. The closest prediction will receive an official Leavenworth Street solid-gold medallion (emailed to you).

Enjoy the weekend and Go Huskers!!!!!!!

The calm before the storm

First, a little Separated at Birth for you on this waning summer day.

An old school, circa 1971, young, permed, Congressional staffer, Chuck Hagel and…
An old school, equally permed, Hasselhoff!


(Chuck says eat your heart out Scott Kleeb!)

***

While he gave a pretty definitive statement not long ago that he would not run for President, The Hill says that New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg may still run. And of course, all of those who eat at the Palm in DC know what that means for the "Nebraska boy", Chuck Hagel.

Couple that with the recent David Broder column about Hagel's tidal influences, and that Unity '08 thing may just happen yet…

***

The word on the Street is that Mike Johanns has hired a campaign manager.

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There's also word that Tony Raimondo been seen about town with Jim Dornan, a former campaign manger to Katherine Harris's doomed Florida Senate campaign. Dornan made it in all the political rags (and blogs) dissing his former crazy boss. Hope Tony is sane enough for him.

And speaking of Raimondo, a Leavenworth Street reader and coffee-drinker recently spotted Raimondo slugging back some joe at a Starbucks in Lincoln with former Pete Ricketts campaign manger and current Jeff Fortenberry fund raiser Jessica Moenning. Maybe they're both just fans of the Kenyan blend?

In any case, no word on Moenning's plans, though way back in November of 2006 the word was that she was going to head things up for a Hal Daub campaign. She specifically denied that to Leavenworth Street back then.

***

And finally, Mike Fahey seems determined to build it to see if they will come down by the muddy Mo. We hope you enjoyed Rosenblatt. Buh-bye now! Of course Landow…I mean Fahey…has yet to say whether the firemen's union will give him the ok to go ahead and build.

If Hagel doesn’t run then…

Yesterday we gave you our odds on what U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel will decide to do when he finally makes a non-Non-Announcement Announcement sometime “soon”. But, as we’ve indicated in our “Chuck Hagel Countdown” to your right, there are many who are waiting for Chuck’s decision before they make their own.

(Keep in mind here, that Bob Kerrey, Mike Fahey and Tony Raimondo have all said that if Hagel decides to run, they will not. Also Jon Bruning and Cheech Flynn have said that they are in no matter what Hagel decides.)

So, in that spirit we give you our…

Odds on what everyone else will do once Chuck makes up his mind!

If Chuck decides he WILL run for re-election to the Senate…

Odds that they will run for the nomination:

GOP:
Hal Daub – 500:1
Say what you want about Hal, he’s loyal and it is very unlikely that he runs against a fellow GOPer. (And yes, we know he ran against Karnes in 1988, but he had planned to run before Zorinsky passed away.) Hagel would have to do much more than be a thorn to President Bush for this to happen.

Dem:
Scott Kleeb – 2:1
This situation is what Kleeb is hoping for. The big stage. The better chance to get his mug on national TV. And if he loses (again) to the big name, well, not so much shame in that. Further, he figures Hagel could lose to Bruning and he’d have an outside shot at beating Bruning. Unfortunately for him, the best chance he’ll probably have is to run for 3rd Dist Rep (and lose) again…

If Chuck decides he will NOT run for re-election to the Senate…

Odds that they will run for the nomination:

GOP:
Mike Johanns – 3:2
This is the big one everyone has been waiting for, right? Johanns, the popular former Gov and big guy in the Ag world to come riding back on his white horse and capture the Senate. But keep in mind a couple things: Johanns will have TWO tough races in order to become Senator. First he’ll have to beat Jon Bruning. Do we think he can do it? Yes, we do. But Bruning’s not going to make it a cake-walk for him. And then if/when he beats Bruning, in a bloody primary, he’ll likely have to take on Cosmic Bob who will have just finished feasting on the fatted calf.

So in any case, you would have to think that this would factor into Johann’s decision to run. Of course he will need to do something after his current gig is up in 2009. But, since most indications are that he plans on doing it, we’re betting that he gets in.

Hal Daub – 2:1
Ah Hal… We’ll say this: he’s doing the pre-campaigning thing right. Traversing the state and keeping busy and actually meeting with people is never a bad thing. And you have to think that he figures he could take Bruning if only he could debate him a few dozen times and knock him out of the park. And maybe he could. But against Johanns? Does Hal think he could beat him as well? (Former Omaha Mayor vs. former Lincoln Mayor?) It will be interesting to see if Hal will get in this. Could he win? Hmmm. Does he THINK he can win? Your heart versus your head is a tough battle. But maybe in a crowded primary with Johanns and Bruning, Hal, with strong party support, could slip through. You can bet no one will work harder than Hal…

Tony Raimondo – 4:1
He has said if Hagel doesn’t run, he’s in. We’ll generally take him at his word, but we wonder if he was considering the Johanns factor. Though he’s probably also hoping for the split primary to carry him. If Johanns is out, he’s definitely in. If Johanns is in, it’s gotta be slightly higher odds for him. Of course, carrying Columbus alone won’t get him the nom…

Lee Terry – 250:1
Just thought we’d throw his name in there. We don’t really think he’ll run, but we’re sure he thought about it.

Dem:
Bob Kerrey – 3:1
Well, with all the hullabaloo in today’s press about Kerrey’s call to The New School’s hemp-suits, it would seem that Kerrey is a slam dunk to get in if Hagel gets out. A couple of factors could keep him from running. One is what the polls may say in a match up against Johanns (let’s assume for now that he thinks he beats Bruning). Does he really want to have a tough race that he could lose? At this point in his life, the guy probably wants a little certainty, and a race against Johanns certainly doesn’t’ provide that. Another interesting factor is that he said he would move his family – including his kindergarten age son – back to Nebraska if he gets in. How that will go over with his wife, we have no idea. But going from Greenwich Village (or wherever they are in Manhattan) to The Big “O” is just little dollop of culture shock – not to mention a longer flight on the weekends. “Cosmic” Bob didn’t get that sobriquet for nothin’, so that’s what’s holding us back from making these even odds.

Mike Fahey – 20:1
Would the Omaha Mayor begrudgingly make this run if Kerrey fizzled out? Unless it was going to be a cake-walk, we doubt it. It would be a brutal and potentially losing campaign. Unless Paul Landow can travel Nebraska for him and debate on his behalf, we think this is unlikely.

Scott Kleeb – 10:1
Again, this could put Kleeb in the cat-bird seat. Our guess is that he doesn’t care if he loses in a Senate race, and it will pump his name ID nationally to do…something else. And there’s always the lightning bolt’s chance that he wins. Look to Cosmic Bob to anoint him should Kerrey pass.

That's some sweet action!

As Cosmo Kramer famously put it, there's nothing like some fine odds on the latest prospect.

And as you know, we here on Leavenworth Street like to put it all in perspective. So while there's hardly any news coming out of the Chuck Hagel camp right now -- a GOP dinner here, a Husker football practice there -- that won't stop us from laying down our latest odds on what he will do in the coming days, weeks or month(s).

So without further ado, here are...

The Chuck Hagel Odds!

Odds that Chuck will run for President as a Republican
100:1

Does anyone really think he has a shot? There's really no time left. He has no organization, no money, has received little press lately and the anti-war Republican spot has been filled by Ronpaul. We just don't see this as likely.

Odds that Chuck will run on the Unity '08 ticket
30:1

While Mike Bloomberg has effectively taken himself out of consideration for this gig, the name of former Senator Sam Nunn (D-GA) has come up. A Nunn-Hagel paring wouldn't be out of the question -- they seem to be cut from the same cloth. But would Hagel be interested in tilting at windmills? We think he's a pretty pragmatic guy, and isn't likely to go chasing gooses.

Odds that Chuck will run for re-election to the U.S. Senate
19:1

He's behind in money. He's (maybe) behind in the polls. He hasn't exactly been pulling a Haldaub visiting every county. It just doesn’t SEEM like he plans on running or that his heart is in it. But if Mike Johanns (or even Bob Kerrey) doesn't want to run, does Hagel want to give the seat to Jon Bruning? That could possibly keep him in, and thus keeps these odds slightly lower.

Odds that he won't run for anything, but will finagle himself a cabinet-type job in the next administration
In a Democrat Admin - 2:1
In a Republican Admin - 4:1

Doesn't it seem like he would like to be a Secretary of State or Defense, World Bank President, an Ambassador or some such?

Odds that Chuck will leave public service altogether
3:1

Being his own man, it still seems like Chuck Hagel would rather work for Chuck Hagel, instead of being at the beck and call of some other elected official. This may be the best bet, but it takes him out of the public eye that he has enjoyed for the past eleven years. Is this where Chuck will end up? What's your bet?

(And tomorrow we'll lay down the odds of the various candidates running if Hagel does indeed pull out of the Senate race!)

Whither Jim Esch?

Back on November 8, 2006 – Election Day plus one – losing Democrat 2nd District Congressional candidate Jim Esch wrote the following on his campaign web site:

The battle for 2008 begins today… Please join me….So take a few days off, and get ready for 2008!

Well, as we slug through the heat and humidity of 2007, this seems to have changed.

Omaha’s KETV Channel 3 found Esch standing around at the Hillary Clinton shriek-fest in the Bluffs on Tuesday night. Action 3 News said:

Esch has not decided if he'll run again in 2008, but says he knows he has to make that decision soon.

That’s a change from November 8th, huh?

As we mentioned earlier, word is that the Dems have cajoled a business dude (or dudette) to run against Rep. Lee Terry in 2008. Could it be that the Powers That Be in the Nebraska Democrats considered Esch’s 2006 off-beat campaign a little too off beat in the Year of the Dem (when a Dem maybe coulda won)? There are numerous factions that are still upset with the way the Dem state party handled the various campaigns and Barry Rubin’s focus on blowing out Pete Ricketts instead of helping the House candidates.

We’re still fishing around for who the Democrat Back Room Cigar Smokers have chosen (oh wait, you mean Democrat candidates aren’t chosen by a Daily Kos diary poll?), but it will be interesting to see if Esch has been pushed aside or if Esch would have the guts to run in a primary against a party hand-picked Democrat candidate.

Now, an unnamed source has funded a new oppo-research site against Lee Terry (and they criticize us for being anonymous!). Seeing as Esch’s $40,000 2006 campaign site is still up, we can bet that Jim didn’t fork out any extra cash to put up the new site. And people on the various Dem blogs are saying that Esch’s family and friends don’t have any more insight into Esch’s plans than Senator Hagel’s staff does of Chuck’s.

Beyond his little spat with Kung-Fu Master Jackson, Lee Terry has gotten better press in the past nine months than he did in the previous term as a whole. While the Dems will cherry-pick various votes to bash him, they will have a hard time taking him down in a Presidential year.

We doubt Terry’s campaign plans will be affected by Chuck Hagel’s imminent announcement – i.e. we think he’ll run for re-election. But we’ll say right now, that Terry’s plans won’t be affected by whomever the Dems decide to pull out of their hat either.

Thinking About 2008

First, a Separated at Birth, sent in by loyal reader Gary Sadlemyer:
Senator Chuck Hagel and “Friday Night Lights” actor Kyle Chandler

Now, a few thoughts:

• Lee Terry thinks Chuck Hagel won’t run for President. Terry thought this back in April as well. We’re not sure what makes him think it now.
• Bob Novak thinks Hagel may retire.


• 14% of over 8,000 people in an MSNBC poll think Chuck Hagel should get in the Presidential race. (Of course, 61% think Al Gore should run, so, you know…)


• Hagel’s press secretary thinks Hagel will announce his decision “in the next month or two”. We think he should announce by Labor Day.


• Chris Cillizia of the Washington Post thinks that if Hagel doesn’t run, Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey may be the better Democrat candidate than Bob Kerrey. Doesn't say why he thinks that.


• Some Nebraska Dems (on the new version of the NNN) think that Scott Kleeb hinted he was going to run again for the 3rd Dist House seat. We think that if he does, he’ll get his clock cleaned (again).


• Kleeb thinks that people coming from around the country to the Yearly Kos convention would like a white pine branch. We have no idea why. Kleeb also thought it best to stay up til 2AM drinking beer with bloggers at Yearly Kos. We think that beats getting up at that hour to change a newborn’s diapers.


• The Nebraska GOP thinks that State Senator Tom White’s “Nebraska Leadership” website, which he is using his official office to promote, is really just a campaign website. We think so to.


• While some of those same Dems think Jim Esch is the man to challenge Terry again next year, some say that the Dems have already recruited a big-wig from the business community. Anyone think they know who?


• The New York Times thinks it will be more successful if they make all of their content free on the web, including columns and editorials. We think a certain Omaha paper should follow suit.


• We think that when you leave a comment to this post you should start it with, “I think…”. Why? Why the hell not, it’s the dog days of August.

Terry should have had the Weiner

Three topics RIPE for comments:

A follow-up to that crazy House of Reps smack-down between Reps Lee Terry and Jesse Jackson, Jr.:

It turns out it was actually the yelping of Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY) that got Rep. Lee Terry all up in a lather. Of course, when Lee, thinking it was Jesse Jr. that was talking smack, approached the Kung-Fu master, Jackson decided to lay the real smack down. (An Innocent Man: Jackson Gets Apology Over Shouting Match - CQ Today – 8/3/07 – subscription required)

Now if Lee can’t take a skinny guy named Weiner, we don’t know who he can take…

***

New dad Scott Kleeb found time to leave his new family to attend a “Netroots Candidate Celebration” at the “Yearly Kos” convention of hot and bothered lefty bloggers in Chicago. (And only the lefties could “celebrate” a guy who lost by 10%...)

Kleeb is listed as a “darling of the net roots” (when he’s not referred to as “hottie Scott Kleeb”). And he’s also listed as a “candidate”. Candidate for what office we wonder. Did we miss something?

***

And finally, Senator Chuck Hagel ventured out of the Senate Thursday night to attend the book tour kick-off for his good buddy, and running-mate in theory, Senator Joe Biden (D-DE). (Biden's Buddy Hagel: Um, Which Party Is Mine? – Washington Post 8/3/07)

As Chuck looked out at the mainly Democrat crowd he “joked”:

“Hell, I don't know what party I belong to any more.”

Is this quote up on Bruning’s web-site yet?

Lee Terry vs Jesse Jackson Jr.!!!

We are looking for more info on this, but we figured we’d update our loyal readers with what we know.

The Second District’s Rep. Lee Terry went toe-to-toe with Rep. Jesse L. Jackson, Jr. (D-IL).

Terry and Jackson

And by toe-to-toe, we don’t mean they argued their positions – we mean they nearly came to fisticuffs off the House floor.

Apparently House Republicans have been using delaying tactics on some bills that have come through lately and the Democrat House Leader decided to take action against it. The Dems say they had a deal, the GOP said they’re being railroaded. (Lawmakers Shout Across House Floor Over Kids Health Spending Bill - FOXNews - 8/1/07.)

So, according to Congressional Quarterly, it went like this:

The dustup nearly touched off a fight between two members. Profanity flew after Jesse L. Jackson Jr., D-Ill., yelled out that Republicans "can’t be trusted." "Shut up," Lee Terry, R-Neb., shot back. The two squared off later, and Terry said Jackson used the F-word repeatedly and invited him to "step outside" the chamber. They didn’t, thanks in part to a third lawmaker who separated them.

Now we’re not saying that Lee would have gotten his butt kicked – ok maybe we are. I mean, check out these pics on Jackson Jr.’s freaking campaign website! He’s apparently some kind of Kung-Fu grand-master, and he has pics of him breaking this little guy’s jaw!

But I’ll tell you this: Lee Terry may only be 5’7” (5’10” with the hair) and 190 lbs dripping wet, but he’s scrappy. He’d be in there biting ankles and gouging eyes. He wouldn’t go down without a fight.

So there’s your new campaign slogan:
“Lee Terry: Fighting (literally) for Nebraska”.

(Come back to Leavenworth Street as we update.)

[Update: Congressman "Fightin'" Lee Terry's office responded to Leavenworth Street that Terry decided not to "go outside" with Congressman Jackson (good choice), and that today they shook hands and decided to put it behind them. (No word on whether it was one of those handshakes where each of them grips really hard and tries to crush the other guy's hand.)

Apparently some other Members suggested they have a Smack Down for Charity. Lee (again, wisely) declined.]

[Update 10:00 PM 8/1/07: Well, how about the OWH and Washington Post reporting on this story and BOTH referring to the Jesse Jackson Jr. karate pics. And the Post even using the Kung Fu term, just like Leavenworth Street. And the OWH using the exact same photo as Leavenworth Street. How about that? And not a single hat-tip to Leavenworth Street. It's all flattery, right? Right?]