As Cosmo Kramer famously put it, there's nothing like some fine odds on the latest prospect.
And as you know, we here on Leavenworth Street like to put it all in perspective. So while there's hardly any news coming out of the Chuck Hagel camp right now -- a GOP dinner here, a Husker football practice there -- that won't stop us from laying down our latest odds on what he will do in the coming days, weeks or month(s).
So without further ado, here are...
The Chuck Hagel Odds!
Odds that Chuck will run for President as a Republican
100:1
Does anyone really think he has a shot? There's really no time left. He has no organization, no money, has received little press lately and the anti-war Republican spot has been filled by Ronpaul. We just don't see this as likely.
Odds that Chuck will run on the Unity '08 ticket
30:1
While Mike Bloomberg has effectively taken himself out of consideration for this gig, the name of former Senator Sam Nunn (D-GA) has come up. A Nunn-Hagel paring wouldn't be out of the question -- they seem to be cut from the same cloth. But would Hagel be interested in tilting at windmills? We think he's a pretty pragmatic guy, and isn't likely to go chasing gooses.
Odds that Chuck will run for re-election to the U.S. Senate
19:1
He's behind in money. He's (maybe) behind in the polls. He hasn't exactly been pulling a Haldaub visiting every county. It just doesn’t SEEM like he plans on running or that his heart is in it. But if Mike Johanns (or even Bob Kerrey) doesn't want to run, does Hagel want to give the seat to Jon Bruning? That could possibly keep him in, and thus keeps these odds slightly lower.
Odds that he won't run for anything, but will finagle himself a cabinet-type job in the next administration
In a Democrat Admin - 2:1
In a Republican Admin - 4:1
Doesn't it seem like he would like to be a Secretary of State or Defense, World Bank President, an Ambassador or some such?
Odds that Chuck will leave public service altogether
3:1
Being his own man, it still seems like Chuck Hagel would rather work for Chuck Hagel, instead of being at the beck and call of some other elected official. This may be the best bet, but it takes him out of the public eye that he has enjoyed for the past eleven years. Is this where Chuck will end up? What's your bet?
(And tomorrow we'll lay down the odds of the various candidates running if Hagel does indeed pull out of the Senate race!)
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8 comments:
Odds that Hagel becomes volunteer campaign manager for whomever is running against Jon Bruning
1:1
Just curious, but are your odds on his finagling himself an administration job each contingent upon that particular party taking the Whitehouse, or does it take into consideration your view of the likelihood of which party will win?
Eric,
Funny you should ask, b/c this was discussed as it was being written.
This is NOT odds on what party will win, but the odds on him getting/taking a job IF the party wins.
So, first start with the assumption that one party or the other wins, then look at the odds.
Of course, I suppose we didn't put what happens if Unity '08 wins...
SS,
Assuming he doesn't seek re-election, any odds on whether Hagel resigns versus fulfilling the remainder of his term?
Ooooh, yeah. What if he resigns? That would throw a chink in Bruning's plans, huh?
If only Hagel could find someway to get campaign donations from the tens-of-millions of illegal aliens his stupid immigration bill would have given amnesty to he'd be right back in the thick of this Senate race!
SS...
Last correspondence I received from Hagel's office in mid-July makes it sound like he might be on the path to retaining his seat. He stated he is..."committed to securing our border"... ...and "will continue to work"... bla bla bla. He/his office also included a 3 page copy of his immigration plan.
Now either he is keeping his options open...and I don't think a presidential run is one of them...or it's easier for his office staff to mail out the excess copies of his worthless immigration plan than it is for them to haul them out to the dumpster.
If Hagel resigns (to ensure the seat stay Republican), which game plan does the Gov go with:
1)Give the seat to Hal Daub; his good friend; mentor; and the person that Kay Orr overlooked when she had the chance-thus righting a wrong.
2)Give the seat to Lee Terry; the senior most elected official in the state-thus doing the right thing that Kay Orr did not do.
3)Give the seat to one of the many people already running or wanting to run-thus repeating Kay Orr's mistake.
4)Reaching across Party lines and calling back The Great Nebraska Carpetbagger, Bob Kerrey-thus destroying the Republican Party in Nebraska for a good, long, time.
I personally would like to see Senator Hagel finish his term; support whomever the Republican candidate is in the Primary, and then receive a Cabinet position in whatever administration is in place in November. Despite, or in spite of, his behavior, Hagel truly loves Nebraska and his Country and would be an asset in any administration.
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