New grass-roots candidate in the Senate race

There is a new candidate in the 2008 race for the U.S. Senate in Nebraska.

Pat Flynn of Schuyler announced on Friday that he has chucked his beret into the squared circle for the Republican nomination for the seat presently held by Chuck Hagel. (Schuyler investment adviser to enter Senate race – LJS – 7/27/07.) At this point, only Flynn and Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning have announced. (Look up to your right for our guess on when Hagel will finally chime in.)

Flynn will be formally announcing on Tuesday, but in the mean time, he has his “Pat Flynn for Senate” website up that gives an outline on his general positions, and a thumbnail sketch of his personal life.

And for some reason, Flynn has decided to get out ahead of his “history” with alcohol and marijuana use back in his twenties. Now we can understand how one might mention that, sort of in passing, in an announcement or an interview or something, but Flynn makes it the focus of his bio page, more or less.

That’s great that you’re all up-front about your former love of weed, dude, but geez, uh, it’s pretty much the only thing anyone can focus on the day you announce for Senate. Prooooobably not what you want people to walk away with…dude.

[Follow-up, 8/1/07: In his formal announcement, Flynn actually said he was going to run a grass-roots campaign. Just so we're clear, our headline above was tongue-in-cheek. Get it? Good.]

***

And speaking of the 2008 Senate race, we had lost track of possible candidate Hal Daub as he has been loping across Nebraska on his “listening tour” visiting 93 counties in 93 days . (Might want to get someone to update that website more often – though nice new photo...)

Last Thursday he was apparently in Crete and the publisher of Nebraska-based blog Red State Eclectic took part in the meeting. It regrettably had poor attendance, in part no doubt to the local newspaper “forgetting” that Daub told them he’d be in town. Nonetheless, Red State Eclectic (which usually focuses on all things Ron Paul) has a detailed write-up of the focused and mellowed Daub and her visit with him. Take a look.

***

And finally for our bizzaro story of the weekend, which features another possible 2008 Senate candidate, Cosmic Bob Kerrey.

So get this: Actor/comedian/wild-and-crazy-guy Steve Martin got married over the weekend to his longtime girlfriend Anne Stringfield in Los Angeles. A bevy of stars attended the surprise wedding (they were told it was just a party), including best man, Saturday Night Live producer Lorne Michaels. (More on Steve Martin’s Wedding – E! Online – 7/29/07.

So who presided over the nuptials? None other than Rockin’ Bob Kerrey! Apparently Kerrey got “ordained” just so he could marry the couple. No word at this time what religion Kerrey’s holy orders are based upon. (Remind us in the future that all references should be to, not Governor, not Senator, but to The Reverend Bob Kerrey.)

[Follow-up, 8/1/07: The OWH's Robert Nelson reports that anyone with a valid marriage license can perform a marriage in California. That's nice. He'll still be The Reverend to us...]

Lee Terry: I’m with Fred

Congressman Lee Terry has officially signed on to the Fred Thompson for President campaign.

Well, as official as hosting a fundraiser for him makes it.

Terry joins 18 other Members of Congress to support Thompson, according to The Hill. (Giuliani has 17, Romney 27, McCain 27 – though those numbers may be off.) Word is that most fundraisers are waiting for Thompson’s official announcement before formally endorsing him.

No word from Terry’s office on this move, but he did comment at length on the subject back in an April 2007 OWH article (Fred Thompson gets the ear of three Nebraskans in DC – OWH- 4/18/07):

Rep. Lee Terry of Omaha said he was impressed with Thompson's desire to return the GOP to its roots - pushing for limited government and fiscal responsibility.

"I think I need to start finding a candidate to back," Terry said. "I have some level of enthusiasm about Fred Thompson, so if he came out tomorrow, I could see myself getting onboard with him."

What About Chuck? (Keep in mind, this was after Hagel’s Non-announcement Announcement in March):

"Some of the vibes that I'm (getting) are that Chuck is not going to run for President."

So while it would seem from Terry’s April statements that he would follow Hagel IF he ran, one wonders if he:

a) has some inside info that Chuck won’t be running for Prez;
b) has decided he likes Thompson better or;
c) has just tired of waiting on Chuck and figures he better get on another bandwagon.

We’ll have to see if any of the rest of the Congressional delegation will be stepping up soon as well, or if they’ll wait for Hagel’s signal (and is Ben Nelson a follower of Obama Girl or Hillary Girl?).

Also remember when John McCain was prowling around Nebraska back in the 2006 GOP Governor Primary, when he endorsed Tom Osborne over Dave Heineman? Jon Bruning was asked about that during his original announcement (as reported on Leavenworth Street):

Bruning noted that he has had calls from the John McCain campaign about endorsing McCain, but told him that he would not endorse anyone until Hagel makes his decision since "he is a Hagel guy." He said he believes that after Romney, Giuliani and McCain "beat the crap out of each other," Presidential voters will want someone like Chuck Hagel. He stated that if Hagel gets into the Presidential race, he thinks Hagel will win.

Wonder if Bruning has changed his mind…

Vice President Hagel?

In case you missed it in last night’s Democrat Presidential CNN/YouTube debate, the candidates were asked…

QUESTION: If you had to pick any Republican member of Congress or Republican governor to be your running mate, who would it be?

SEN. JOE BIDEN: At the risk of hurting his reputation -- and it will hurt him -- but I would pick Chuck Hagel.

FORMER SEN. JOHN EDWARDS: Actually, I think Chuck Hagel is a good choice.

(Read the transcript here and watch the video here.)

(And yes, that WHOOP! you heard came from the Jon Bruning HQ…)

Of course, we believe that the odds of a Democratic nominee picking a Republican at their convention is pretty much nil. (Can you imagine the riot that would ensue if Hagel got up to speak to every Dem activist, with his 90% support of President Bush, or whatever it is?)

While we could see him in a Dem administration (SecDef?), we think the only “Democrat” that he’d shack up with is Mike Bloomberg.

***

Speaking of Jon Bruning, the LJS reported on the various contributors on Bruning’s FEC report. (Big names among Bruning’s contributors – LJS – 7/24/07.)

Among the Nebraska high rollers were a few other high-profile names: Tom Osborne (we knew that), John Breslow, and Lancaster County GOP chair Mark Fahleson.

Now Fahleson apparently defends taking sides in this match by stating that he and Bruning “have been friends since college.”

So our only question is, was Fahleson also the raging liberal that Bruning was back in the 90’s? Mark? (chuckle…)

***

Finally, we note that what one Leavenworth Street reader has dubbed Ben Nelson’s “Earmarkgate” seems to have some legs.

The OWH reported about Nelson’s earmarks for 21st Century Systems (which employ’s Nelson’s son Patrick) and Oklahoma’s Senator Tom Coburn’s attack on it. Coburn’s office also sent a press release (to Leavenworth Street) pointing out that 21CSI hadn’t filed a statement that federal money (by which 80% of their company is funded) is not used in lobbying the federal government.

Now national columnist Robert Novak (Shame of the Senate – Robert Novak- 7/23/07) and Fox News (Omaha company's windfall, hiring of lawmaker's son irks senator – Fox News – 7/24/07) are getting into the act as well, reporting on the controversy.

So will Nelson try to bring back this politically poisoned piece of pork? And would this sort of thing have happened to a Big Daddy Senator Robert Byrd earmark?

Hagel: I'm not a flake

Jeff Zeleny of the New York Times (and formerly of the Daily Nebraskan), recently caught up with Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel to quiz him about his place in the upcoming Presidential field, particularly as an anti-war Republican. (Seeking a G.O.P. Opening on the War - NYT - 7/20/07.)

Hagel said he is "receiving fresh encouragement to consider a presidential candidacy" and that he intends to "study the landscape and disclose his intentions 'in the next few weeks.'"

On fundraising:

“There is no Republican presidential candidate with this point of view. There might be an opening for me on this,” Mr. Hagel said. “I’ve had three very significant Republican fundraisers come to me this week, all of whom said I should look at running.”

He declined to name the fundraisers, only saying: “They are three Bush people, not committed to any candidate yet. You would recognize two of the names, clearly.” With a smile, he added, “Of course I’d need more than three.”

On his Non-announcement Announcement in May:

“I think people have enough regard for me to know that I’m not a flake, that I’m a serious leader,” Mr. Hagel said. “Whether you agree with me or not – or whether you think I’d have a chance or not, that’s a different thing. But I don’t think anyone would doubt my sincerity to do a good job and do it right.”

On running for Prez:

“It’s not a no. I have not said no,” Mr. Hagel said, standing on the grounds of the Capitol, where one day earlier war protestors had stood vigil. “I don’t want to make a decision in the flurry of all this, the intensity of all this. Next month when we get a little break, I’ve got to sort it out. I’ve got to make a decision and I will.”

With more Republicans in the Senate breaking ranks with the White House on Iraq, this would seem to be the start of the opening Hagel was hoping for. It still would seem radically unlikely that he could win either in the GOP primary or something with a Bloomberg on an an Independent ticket. No one knows what Hagel really hopes to get out of Presidential run -- short of winning.

In any case, it's pretty obvious that Hagel would much rather talk with the Tim Russerts of the world about Iraq, than with a farmer from Ord about soybean prices. If he can find a good enough reason to run for Prez, that may give him the out of having to bother with AG Jon Bruning on a trek across the state.

An answer in "a few weeks" or "next month" puts him on track with our Countdown Clock, above to the right.
Many (pols) are waiting with baited breath...

Ben Nelson trusts his beauty salon

Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson was on Comedy Central’s “The Colbert Report” last night. Colbert, who does sort of a Bill O’Reilly homage, quizzed Nelson on his stance on the war in Iraq, which frankly shouldn’t upset the White House too much. He is basically for keeping the troops there, and for only shooting at people with Al-Qaeda terrorist uniforms on, and not with Sunni or Shia civil-war uniforms on. So that should be pretty easy.

Click the picture here to see the interview in a new window.

But that isn’t what we on Leavenworth Street were most alarmed about. No, our first reaction was TO HIS HAIR! My gawd, it looks like he stopped by Dairy Queen before the show and dipped his head in Magic Shell! Talk about your Breck Girl!

So you can compare, here’s Nelson circa 2006 and Nelson last night.

Nelson 2006 &2007

I’ll give ya this, the guy looks…oh… eight years younger. But come on!

OK, for a little comparison, let’s see what Nebraska’s Senator Chuck Hagel would look like if his barber added a little shoe polish to his rinse:

So there you have it. And by the way, Nelson’s office is already way out in front of this brown-wash: A story in The Hill this morning (So Comity’s not dead in Senate – The Hill – 7/17/07) notes that Nelson and his spokesman have already thrown Nelson’s hair stylist under the bus, claiming the "barber" said, “wash this cream through your hair.” Yeah real nice, blame it on the beauty shop…

Hagel vs. Bruning: Tale of the Tape

With U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel announcing his quarterly fundraising numbers (Hagel has raised nearly $1.1 million – LJS – 7/13/07), we can now compare his fundraising with that of Attorney General Jon Bruning.

First their fund raising numbers to date:
Hagel: $1.1 million
Bruning: $721,000

It would seem that this is advantage Hagel, but Chuck’s numbers are a bit misleading. When Hagel’s guy Kevin Chapman said a few weeks ago that their numbers would be “well beyond” Bruning’s, he was referring to their fundraising since 2003. Well, we would hope they’d be over that. We confess that we assumed Chapman was talking about Hagel’s 2007 second quarter numbers.

When we look at the second quarter of 2007, we get:
Hagel: $388,000
Bruning: $721,000

Advantage Bruning. And then when we look at cash on hand we see;
Hagel: $430,000
Bruning: $620,000

Now while this would seem to indicate a serious lead by Bruning – and it’s not negligible – we would note that it’s unlikely that Bruning can keep up the rate at which he’s been raising cash. While the money won’t exactly dry up, it’s going to be much more difficult for him to come in at those high numbers the next quarter.

And Chapman’s quote that “we will have all the money we need to win” is probably true. Remember that Hagel will definitely have the PAC money advantage over Bruning – it will come much easier to the incumbent. And don’t forget that Hagel hasn’t even formally announced yet, and that there are many who are holding back donating until he does.

So again, we look up, and to the right, at our Chuck Hagel Countdown clock, to see the seconds tick…tick…tick away. Those eight guys aren’t the only ones watching…

Hagel: Libby shoulda gone to jail

U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel was asked on Omaha's KMTV whether he agreed with President Bush on the commutation of Scooter Libby’s thirty-month sentence. Hagel’s answer:

"Ah…no. I think that was unfortunate."

(Click on the picture to watch the full KMTV report in a new window.)

When the same question was asked to Nebraska Attorney General (and declared Senate candidate) Jon Bruning, he responded:

"Yeah…probably. I mean I think what he (Bush) did was the right thing. That to me seemed very political, the whole prosecution…"

Now, Hagel’s response can at least be viewed as consistent. Back when the question of President Clinton’s perjury was the basis of an impeachment vote, Hagel said:

"I find that the President abused his sacred power by lying and obstructing justice… President Clinton's conduct has debased his office and violated the soul of justice--truth. He has thereby debased and violated the American people."

No word on whether Hagel thought Clinton should have served thirty months for it as well.

But as we descend from the mountain-top, note that this is a political issue as well – arguably a wedge issue between Republicans and Democrats. Problem for Hagel is, the Dems won’t be voting in the May GOP primary.

Of course Hagel is not even in the Senate race yet (though his parading around the state over the 4th was very candidate-like), and we’d be surprised that an issue like this would have legs all the way to next May.

But we still can’t see this statement helping Hagel within the Nebraska Republican party.

July 4, 1804

As we sit here on July 4th Eve, we'll point out something from the journals of the Lewis and Clark expedition:

On the 4th of July in 1804, the guys rowing up the river in Kansas ended Independence Day by firing off their keelboat’s main gun (significant, since they only had so much powder, etc.) and throwing back an extra gill of whiskey (and there were very few package stores in Kansas in those days). This has always struck me, as here are guys out in the middle of nowhere, and they still make a point to fire off their bottle rocket and throw back a cold one to celebrate the U.S. of A.

So, as that Roman candle is firing off and you’re downing an icy one from the cooler, we here on L. St. ask you to join us in a semi-formal salute to the boys who crossed the new America -- to the guys who scaled the rocks on Omaha Beach -- to the guys and girls who scrape the sand over in Iraq, Afghanistan or any points west and east. Sure there's always more that we can do. But start at the minimum: Put 'em all in our thoughts and prayers.

Wishing America a Happy Birthday, as we parade down Leavenworth Street…

Bruning rakes it in

As you can read, Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning released his quarterly fund-raising numbers for his U.S. Senate campaign, and they look pretty fine.

(Bruning says he’s raised $721,200 – AP, LJS – 7/2/07.)

(Bruning says he’s raised $721,200 for U.S. Senate campaign – OWH – 7/2/07.)

(Bruning Campaign Tops $720,000 in Receipts – Jon Bruning for U.S. Senate website – 7/2/07.)

As the Bruning campaign points out, $721,200 is more than Ricketts, Stenberg and Kramer raised combined at the same time in 2005. Also, 82% of that $721K came from Nebraskans.

So, what does all this mean?

Well, for starters, let’s look at the other main point that your local papers are all hot and bothered about: namely, that Bruning also got max dinero from gazillionaires Mike Yanney and Walter Scott, who recently hosted a fundraising gig for U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel. Just remember, that $4,600 that each of them blew was money that they didn’t use to light over-sized novelty cigars. It’s walking around money for them. It’s called, covering your ass, just in case.

A point of significance, however, is that Bruning only raised $5,500 in PAC money. Hagel may show around sixty times as much of that when he announces his cash in the coming weeks. (And Hagel’s guy Kevin Chapman says their numbers will be “well beyond” Bruning’s buckage, so expect him to come in around $800,000 or so.)

Now while some may find it noble and fine to not raise any PAC money, the reality is that PAC money is money. You either have money or you don’t. And it’s very unlikely that Bruning is going to raise much PAC money because few Washington, D.C. lobbyists will dare to give to the opponent of an incumbent. Not to mention one on the Banking Committee.

Hagel, on the other hand, will raise a boat-load of PAC money, and it will be legal tender that can be exchanged for goods and services, no matter how “dirty” some may find it. (Of course, all this would change for Bruning if Hagel doesn’t run.)

So, while Bruning’s Nebraska funder numbers are impressive, especially since he didn’t have much PAC money there, the question is, Can he do it for the next four quarters as well? Or will the cash reservoir be as deep as Lake McConaughy during a drought? We will have to wait and see.

But know this: even though the Nebraska sources could be thin, and even though the PAC-men may turn their backs, it is VERY clear that Jon Bruning has some solid support and there is a very real disconnect for Chuck Hagel in Nebraska.

The money numbers only tell one side of the story.

(Oh, and btw, both Hagel and Bruning (not to mention Hal Daub) should be at the July 4^th Douglas County GOP pancake feed at Elmwood Park. That buzz in the air won’t be the bees…)