Another in Treasurer's race - good news for Don

A third Republican candidate has entered the race to become state Treasurer.

And that is good news for Don Stenberg.

When former head of the Nebraska state patrol, Tom Nesbitt, entered the race yesterday, he immediately began taking votes away from state Senator Tony Fulton. Why?

Because no one knows who Fulton is. Sure maybe YOU do, but you're sitting there reading a Nebraska political blog. The average Nebraskan who will make the effort to vote in the 2010 GOP primary? Maybe not so much.

The advantage that Fulton will hope for is that, as it stands now, very few people will make the effort to vote in the primary.

Sure the Lee Terry and Matt Sak supporters will have to get off their duffs in May, but the rest of the state? When the only race to vote on is Treasurer? It will be a lot easier to just go home and catch Dancing with the Idols, or whatever is on.

What about the average voter, who will go out and vote anyway? They've heard of Don Stenberg. And that could be enough to float Stenberg the lead.

Tony Fulton's problem -- or Tom Nesbitt's, assuming he can pull together a campaign -- will be that those folks who don't like Donny Sten will have another non-Stenberg box from which to choose.

And if others choose to jump in the race? Just more dilution of the non-Stenberg votes.

That's the reality -- right now anyway. Unless Fulton can whip together a hell of a campaign and really get his people to the polls. But it ain't gonna be easy.

***

And who is Tom Nesbitt? Interesting story on him.

He is the first Nebraska state patrol sergeant to rise to the top spot of the state patrol -- placed there by Mike Johanns. He even took time off and then campaigned for Johanns on behalf of the union.

But when Dave Heineman came into office, Heineman wanted "his own person in the job".

Nesbitt then worked for a time -- in the state Treasurer's office.

But he left that gig -- to work on Tom Osborne's Gubernatorial campaign against Dave Heineman.

Hmm.

So then in January 2008, Nesbitt moves to Canton, Ohio and is named public safety to prevent all the crime perpetrated by hobbled men walking around in yellow sports jackets.

He then resigned from that gig in July of this year in a huff due to an undisclosed disagreement with the Canton Mayor who originally placed him.

He has now moved back to Nebraska and wants a better seat in the Treasurer's office (and has found himself a pair of those rectangular frames).

No word as to whether T.O. will endorse him (but wouldn't THAT be a coup).

***

We have yet to hear about anyone else getting in the Treasurer's race -- on either side of the aisle.

Primary Week!

It's Primary Week kids, so we will try to concentrate on the few big primaries going on in Nebraska.

The main statewide race in contention is for State Treasurer.
(And we'll link to their Facebook pages, since that's what all the cool kids look at...)

State Senator Tony Fulton, former Attorney General Don Stenberg and former State Patrol Superintendent (the top spot) Tom Nesbitt are all vying for that job of jobs.

What's that you say? Well, PLENTY of people would like that gig, that's who!

You know, people like Kay Orr, Dave Heineman and Shane Osborn.

(Are you starting to get the drift?)

Look, it's a statewide office, you have some responsibilities, and you know, maybe...possibly...you can launch to a higher office from there.

Not saying any of these folks plan that, but hey.

It's just sort of funny that these guys talk so little about actual treasurering...

***

Anyway, watch some 30 second spots (in alpha order):

Tony Fulton



By the way, the Stenberg camp doesn't like Fulton's spot.

Tom Nesbitt



Don Stenberg



***

So, here's our super short, succinct analysis:

If this were a two man race, Tony Fulton would have a shot.

But as it's a three man competition...well...we just don't see how Stenberg's statewide name recognition can be beat.

It could happen. We're not saying it can't happen.

But we're saying that if it does, it would probably be the upset of the year.

Dive in peoples.

***

Test Tweet here folks...

Dems, this is what happens when the AG is left unopposed http://bit.ly/adQoj7 (and when you claim $500K that hasn't been delivered...)less than a minute ago via bit.lyStreet Sweeper
LeavenworthSt

***

A much more detailed plot thickens (via the LJS) on the Mark Lakers NADC report: http://bit.ly/94ER7hless than a minute ago via bit.lyStreet Sweeper
LeavenworthSt

Who can challenge Bruning?

With Attorney General Jon Bruning’s announcement of an “exploratory committee” for U.S. Senate run, we will look at who we think else has a chance.

Because, with $600,000 coming from his old 2008 Senate warchest, you have to think that Bruning is driving the candidate bus right now. Everyone else will be passengers who must wrest control from Bruning if they want the win.

So who are some of the potential riders?

Well...

Don Stenberg
Don is the next name everyone yells after Bruning. A former Attorney General himself, Stenberg has made no secret of his desire to use his current new post as State Treasurer as a step stool for a higher gig -- Governor or Senator.

But did you know that Stenberg has run -- and lost -- THREE Senate campaigns? Is he willing for this to be number four? Maybe he is. And maybe he thinks he can beat Bruning. But if we’re handicapping early (and, well, it looks like we are) we just don’t see GOP primary voters choosing Stenberg over Bruning.

Stranger things have happened, but...well. We will move on.

Jeff Fortenberry
Fort is someone who you would think could pose a real challenge to Bruning. He is popular (in his District anyway), young, and could go hair to hair in any debate with Bruning.

But, does Fort have it in him? Bruning is known to be such a hard-core campaigner as to maybe be reckless. Can Fort compete with that? And can Fort raise the money needed for a statewide race? Bruning has done this statewide numerous times, including having a solid Omaha business base.

Fortenberry is not known to be a solid fundraiser and may not have the stomach for a statewide race. Not to mention, he may just be comfortable and satisfied (for now) with his House gig. He will be in the majority now and can enjoy some of the benefits that go with that.

So we will guess right now that Fort wouldn’t get it, but still wouldn’t put it past him, and wouldn’t count him out. Hedging our bets? Bets hedged.

Pete Ricketts
Pete seems like the next most logical candidate, considering he took on Nelson last time, and has kept himself very much involved in Nebraska politics.

He formed the Platte Institute think tank, the Plains State Legal Foundation and funds Nebraska Watchdog. He is the state National Committeeman. And, oh yeah, he is an owner of the Chicago Cubs. And John Bruning’s $600K does not scare away Pete Ricketts.

But, a question would be whether Pete really wants to take on Ben Nelson again. That was a hard, big loss, and polling may not show that Pete could have success this time against Nelson.

Now, suppose Nelson decides to hang it up? That would be a whole ‘nother ballgame.

And a ballgame the Cubs could win (so to speak).

Pete is the kind of candidate who could bide his time to see the way things shake out, and potentially ride in as a saviour. Count Pete out of the Senate race at your peril.

Now all that being said, Ricketts may have decided he isn’t interested in the Senate. Heck Dave Heineman just showed that even if he could slam dunk the job, he wasn’t interested.

Besides, there are 100 Senators, but only 50...Governors.

And with Heineman staying in until 2014, that means Rick Sheehy won’t get to sit in the Governor’s McMansion for two years before a run. If Pete is more interested in being Governor, Heineman’s decision just made it a better race for him

Mike Foley
After thinking about it a bit, we are a little more convinced that State Auditor Mike Foley could be interested/have a shot.

Think about a few things: Whenever Foley makes ANY statement these days, it makes headlines. He has been the state watchdog who goes hunting and shakes things up at every turn. If Foley is in the news, you just hope it isn’t your doorstep he has stopped at.

And Nebraskans dig the good-government, no-nonsense types. He is not flashy but gets (at least by all appearances) the job done.

He is also a statewide office holder and has some decent name ID.

Now an interesting thing about Foley is that he is part of the so-called “3F Catholic Mafia” of Fortenberry-Foley-(Tony) Fulton. The three have been known to put their political heads together on various issues, and generally support each other as well.

So if Fort gets in, we would be very surprised if Foley did as well. Or vice versa. But one would presumably have the support of the other, and everything else they could throw in.

And level headed calm Foley could presumably be a foil to the more brash Bruning. There could be interesting maneuvering.  But then again, we have no idea if Foley is even interested.

***

But, right now, we will say this:  If it is a multi-person primary (at tis point), Bruning would get our bet. He is organized. Has solid financials (and presumably David Sokol) behind him. And he will be a tough campaigner.

Oh, and he can beat Ben Nelson.

***

And some who we would guess will not run?

Lee Terry
As much as we are guessing he would rather run every six years instead of every two, we think Terry will enjoy moving up the ranks in the House.

Shane Osborn
After jumping out of politics, and dealing with personal issues, it is probably too early for this big of a jump for Shane.

Rick Sheehy
Waiting for Governor Dave to leave.

Dave Kramer
Out of the limelight too long?

Hal Daub
Doubt that he is interested. Could be involved in candidate negotiations. But you never know.
**Update**  While if Hal got in he would be an outstanding Senator, it is now our understanding that he probably isn't interested in this gig right now.

***

Weigh in folks! It’s the rough and tumble world of intra-party politics!

Don's last stand

Former Nebraska Attorney General and U.S. Senate candidate Don Stenberg is expressing interest in the State Treasurer's job that Shane Osborn will be leaving next year.

You gotta think this would be Don's last shot, right?

• 1996's GOP Senate primary didn't work out for him.
• Then he came within 2% of Ben Nelson in the 2000 Senate race.
• But after coming in second to Pete Ricketts in the 2006 GOP Senate primary, we were sure that he would call it quits in the elective political world.

So why would the Treasurer's gig interest him? A launching pad for a future Governor's or Senate run? Possible we guess.

The OWH is throwing out -- " Tony Fulton of Lincoln, Sen. Abbie Cornett of Bellevue, Chris Langemeier of Schuyler and Deb Fischer of Valentine", as interested.

The LJS notes state Sen. Charlie Janssen of Fremont as well.

And we've heard at least two other Dem State Senators who are interested (setting up a potential cat-fight).

In other words, this is the type of race that many would be interested in, the likes of a Don Stenberg in there or not.

So while Stenberg undoubtedly has the top statewide name ID, Nebraskans often show that they're interested in moving forward in politics -- not hanging onto a name of the past.

It will most likely be THE primary race of the year.

***

On that note, we extend our congratulations to Shane Osborn on a job well-done.

He ticked off a successful list of accomplishments in his term as State Treasurer:

• Unclaimed property;
• Transparency website;
• Shrank the size of the office;
• Shrank his budget;
• Implemented a day reconciliation for bank receipts.

People who never paid attention to the Treasurer's office before saw successes there, and could actually see government working FOR them. What a quaint idea.

We wish Shane the best and look forward to seeing him again in the political world down the road.

***

(OK, non-Omahans: Note that we led off with two statewide stories before hitting the Omaha budget stuff? Don't say we don't look out for ya!)

So here's our question, Omahans: Satellite dishes? Really?

Omaha is going to balance its budget on the backs of satellite dish owners?

And this idea came to Councilman Chris Jerram while he was out jogging? Hmm.

Now if he'd said he was going to put a new tax on all fast-food deep-fryers -- because, well, you know, observation and stuff -- we wouldn't have been surprised.
(We kid Councilman, we kid. Sort of.)

But really, that's also the point right? Why NOT french fryers? Or a tax on flag pole installers. Or on picture hangers. You name it.

After making up several reasons the other day on the news, Jerram admitted as much saying, basically that they would implement the new fee because they could, and that it would be a revenue source.

Forget that NO ONE saw this coming. That no one in the business had any information about this or has had the opportunity to comment on it yet. Or that the statistics that Jerram is basing this all on came from the competitors of the satellite dish biz. (By the way, Pepsi has an excellent idea for how you can tax Coke products.)

Or if it will even work.

We're a little suspicious that this half-assed proposal is just set up there so the Mayor can veto it, and then the other taxes will automatically take its place.

***

And don't even get us started on the "voluntary" furloughs.

Look, here's what SHOULD happen: Either you cut enough so that you don't have to raise taxes, or if you do have to raise taxes, spread it around evenly.

Should city workers take the only hit? And we're talking about city workers who are supposed to be doing the job, and we are assuming that they shouldn't be cut.

Should you balance the city budget because you have a perfectly legal satellite dish?

Or should property taxes go up -- for EVERYONE in the city?

***

Well, guess what kids, that's what's likely to happen. And the Mayor is going to tell you that HE didn't do it, or some such other B.S.

But you know what? The Mayor SHOULD own the tax increase. And you know what else? He should SELL it that way.

It's called leadership.

The Mayor should be telling the public that if Omaha wants it's AAA bond rating and it's budget balanced, and pools open and libraries open, then taxes will HAVE to be raised. (For argument's sake, we're leaving out the whole 4 men on a firetruck issue.)

And then the Mayor should say,

"There is only one way to equally spread around a tax increase, and that's through property taxes.

If you own a home, you'll pay more. If you rent, the property owner will pass the higher costs through. Times are tough and we all have to suck it in.

And if Omahans want a great city with the type of things a great city has, then ALL it's people are going to have to give a little more.

And I'll be DAMNED if I'm going to balance this budget on the backs of a few city workers, who I can guarantee aren't making top dollars. Or on people who wanted to get the NFL Sunday Ticket.

If an extra fifty bucks a year for a $200,000 house stinks, then so be it. You come to ME to complain. Here's my phone number. You know where I work.

But when you take your kids to the pool or the library or to the curb while your garbage is being picked up, you can also thank the city for these services.

We've had good times and we've had rough times. We'll weather them all. Together."

Or some such.

And the point here isn't that we're in favor of new taxes. Frankly, maybe it's 100% the fault of the fire union, and putting 3 men on a truck would be the silver bullet.

But if the Mayor won't go that route, then he has to man-up and show some leadership.

Enough of this "the citizens are the stockholders" crap. If you're the Mayor, you take responsibility.

(And by the way, enough of being "elated" when someone suggests a new tax. HATE taxes. Despise new taxes. But we're living in a society where they're necessary if we want this quality of life. And blah blah blah. We have to give this advice? Really?)

But for gawd's sake, if you were elected then TAKE A FREAKING STAND.

***

Oh, and have a great weekend.
And GO HUSKERS!!!!!

Early Primary Results

For those of you following along, note that the results will come the fastest directly from the Secretary of State's site.

They update every 5 minutes, so these results are already old...

Updated with the FINAL un-official numbers:

CD-2 GOP
Lee Terry......................63%
Matt Sakalosky.............37%

GOP State Treasurer
Don Stenberg ... .........52%
Tony Fulton .............. 28%
Tom Nesbitt ..............20%

Note that Stenberg is pretty much kicking ass and taking names in every county...except Lancaster, which Fulton is winning.

And this complaint from Nesbitt could have been a little more...timely.

CD-1 Dems
Ivy Harper .................38%

Jessica Lynn Turek ....36%

Stanley E. Krauter  ....13%

Sherman Yates ..........13%

Rock on.

September Morn

We are still watching the machinations around the State Treasurer's race.

As you know, former Attorney General Don Stenberg is committing to it, and is ready to go all out to win. (Though frankly, having been AG, and coming very close for U.S. Senate...Treasurer? Really?)

Then there's state Senator Tony Fulton of Lincoln who is also going full bore with a run, and should announce soon.

Fulton may very well have the backing of some bigger names, and word is he has a campaign manager lined up in one Jessica Moenning (she of the former Pete Ricketts for Senate camp).

The Norfolk Daily News tells us that Moenning and her husband, Rep. Fortenberry communications director Josh Moenning, just moved the fam to Norfolk, and will be running ops out of there. (Maybe better keep a condo in Lincoln though, no?)

The same list of GOPers are apparently still interested -- Janssen, Langemeier, Cornett. We'd heard Dave Nabity's name thrown out, though we're assured that he's not interested.

As far as the Dems go, we saw that state Senator Amanda McGill plans on running for re-election to the Uni, so looks like no Treasurer's gig for her (which we'd heard rumors of). Other than her, we have heard musing of state Sen. Danielle (Nantkes) Conrad and, of course, cowpoke Scott Kleeb -- though no confirmation on either.

Will the Dems really throw in the towel for this spot? Do they remember where the likes of Kay Orr and Dave Heineman have come from?

***

And just curious, but are there ANY Dems who will take on Governor Dave Heineman?

Really?

Well, apparently Tom White will have their full attention then...

***

After the whole budget debacle in Omaha, this Tweet from (Democrat) City Councilman Pete Festersen last week:

Budget is over. Good news is $500k for dundee, $500k for florence, and $500k for benson.
10:35 AM Sep 17th from txt

Now kids, keep in mind that Festersen voted AGAINST Mayor Suttle's budget. Yet....yet...he's happy about money "going to" different parts of his City Council District?

Ya know, last time we checked, Festersen is not in Congress. He's not even in the legislature. Yet he is pumping his chest out about, what, making sure money goes to certain parts of the city? So now the council is pitting parts of the city against each other?

We could understand this sort of parochialism in a city like New York or L.A., but Omaha? So if it's "good news" that Benson got half a million, is it bad news if South O gets $750,000? And what does he mean that there is five hundred thousand dollars "for" each neighborhood? Is he going door to door with a bag of money?

We all know that Festersen is using his Council seat as a launching pad for Bigger & Better, but making declarations like this (on Twitter for gawd's sake) is already setting a bad precedent. (And if other councilmen have done it, same for them.)

***

Well the Jim Suttle for Mayor campaign is in full swing.

The WHAT you ask?

Well, you need only go to JimSuttle.com to find his "100 Days" accomplishments PDF doc. (We searched and searched but we couldn't find a reference to 1) raising Property Taxes; 2) Matt Samp or; 3) the bright red Dodge Durango listed anywhere...).

Or you can go to Suttle's FaceBook page -- where you can see the Jeff Koterba cartoon showing Suttle riding on the back of the Fire truck - HAR HAR HAR (and of course, note who put up comments on another page).

You can go to the Jim Suttle Twitter page, linking all those pages.

Or you can just sit back and watch your email box fill up with the "Jim Suttle campaign newsletter", paid for by JimSuttle.com

So much social-networking, with so little time for the busy Mayor. Of course, we know HE'S not updating those sites.

So who is???

***

Speaking of the ubiquitous Mayor, we were fishing around the NADC site and saw these post-May 12th Election Day contributions for Jim Suttle on Schedule B, which caught our eyes:

$5,000
PJ MORGAN REAL ESTATE
7801 WAKELEY PLAZA
Omaha NE 68114

$30,000
FIREFIGHTERS FOR BETTER GOVERNMENT
6005 Grover Street,
OMAHA NE 68106

Oh, and in the "Expenditures" section in Schedule B, there was this:
6/16/09
SUREPAYROLL PD $850:
RONALD PENZKOWSKI

(emphasis ours...)

Is Ben looking at 2012?

There has been a lot of talk about what Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson's motivations are for his Health Care re-form bill vote.

He obviously feels firmly about the abortion issue -- but he also firmly feels the wrath of Nebraska Right to Life if he DOESN'T vote their way.

But we saw an interesting note in a recent Reuters article that got our attention. It said...

Nelson won re-election in 2006 by a 28 percentage-point margin and is unlikely to face much opposition in 2012 unless Nebraska's popular Republican Governor Dave Heineman decides to run.

This hit us on a few levels:

1) Really? Not much opposition? Well we can easily think of a number of Nebraska politicos who could give Nelson a run, especially if he's damaged goods after the Health Care vote:

• AG Jon Bruning (though he may be more interested in 2014 Governor);
• State Treasurer Shane Osborn (according to Limbaugh and the WSJ);
• Don Stenberg or State Senator Tony Fulton -- especially whomever wins State Treasurer in 2010;
• GOP Committeeman Pete Ricketts (say what you want about getting blown out in 2006, Nelson has to spend a wad to get that win);
• maybe Lee Terry or Jeff Fortenberry get restless.

We could easily keep going -- again, especially depending on how Nelson votes on the Health Care bill.

2) Frankly, we hadn't thought about Governor Dave taking the Senate. But not surprising, right? The jump from Nebraska Governor to U.S. Senator has been sort of the standard, right? (e.g. Exon, Kerrey, Nelson, Johanns)

Then there's the fact that he has the background:

• was a Chief of Staff on the Hill;
• knows how to play;
• great background story as a United States Military Academy at West Point grad, Airborne Ranger, City Councilman, State Treasurer, Lt. Governor, Governor (who beat T.O.).

That's one heck of a résumé.

When we ask around, we don't exactly receive the "get outta here! no way!" from state politicos.

And DH has been making the rounds as well. On Greta van Sustern the other night.

Of course he has to make it past Mike Boyle in 2010 first. (And don't think this won't come up in the form of a "pledge" in a Governors' debate...)

3) For what it's worth, the NEGOP has a new site up: GiveBentheBoot.com. Sort of reminds us of one of those sites when you're trying to get rid of Charlie Weiss or Mark Mangino. But a concerted effort, nonetheless. Hmmm.

Anyway, some food for thought for the weekend (for you and Ben), and into your Christmas week.

***

Oh, and get in your nominations for the Fourth Annual Leavenworth Street Nebraska Politician of the Year! (announced the week of New Years)

And...whaddaya know. Look who on the first one, back in 2006...

Primary Election Eve!

A quick and timely SAB sent in by an intrepid reader, Nick Schinker:

Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan, and not-Osacar nominee, Kevin James!

**And STOLEN by Jimmy Kimmel!**

***

On this Election Eve (hey, just go out and vote tomorrow, OK?), some VERY exciting stuff!

Um...well...anywho...

OK, here ya go:

The OWH endorsed BOTH former Attorney General Don Stenberg AND State Senator Tony Fulton for State Treasurer.

Way to hedge your bets, OWH editorialists!

The funny thing is, now Tom Nesbitt has some hope.

***

Here's a Q for ya: Could Lincoln turn the statewide election? For those of you not paying attention, the Lincolnites have a ballot question on whether or not to build a new arena.

That's the sort of issue that may get people to actually release their weapons and Bibles, crawl out of their bunkers, refrain from texting while driving to the nearest fallout shelter marked building and carefully fill in an oval.

Not saying the rest of you beyond the Memorial Stadium city limits won't do so, but we'd wager that their voting percentages will be higher.

So: will they be the difference makers? Will you have to blame your winner on them? Will they take credit?

Updates late night tomorrow.

***

Finally, we haven't seen any unoffical polling numbers yet, but we've been Tweeted by MattSak that the CD-2 race is "close".

Unclear as to whether he means the "hour to vote" is close, or whether he believes the present numbers are close. Close by? Close at hand? Sitting right next to him?

Unclear.

***

It's a free-for-all, kids.