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- Street Sweeper

Spatin'

This morning the LJS’s Don Walton facilitated Ben Nelson’s hit on Jon Bruning over earmarks, who makes them and who gets them.

Interesting stuff, and feel free to argue about that issue.

But the real kicker came in the bottom half of the article where former state GOP chair, and 2006 GOP Senate primary candidate, Dave Kramer took shots at Bruning, Don Stenberg and (poor) Pat Flynn.

Kramer, once again, stated that:

“...there's a significant component of people in the state who believe there might be a better option.”

Now.

Kramer wouldn’t be saying this if he didn’t have SOMEONE in mind for the gig. We are guessing that Kramer isn’t speaking of himself (though it’s possible, in theory).

And he wouldn’t be taking shots at Bruning’s positions against Nelson -- defending Nelson -- if he didn’t have someone else in mind.

So who is he backing? Who is the mystery candidate?

Mike Foley? Or Fortenberry?(more on him below)
Deb Fischer (more on her below)?
Mystery candidate #4?

Whomever it is, Kramer is setting the stage, and we are guaranteed a GOP primary BATTLE.

Probably just what Nelson wants, but then again, we need these sorts of elections. It’s like Clemenza said in The Godfather,

That's all right. These things gotta happen every five years or so, ten years. Helps to get rid of the bad blood.

Except of course that they tend to make for bitter politicos. But, ah whatcha gonna do? It’s democracy.

***

And just to add on, The Hill had a list of GOPers who voted against the Tax Bill, who may or may not be interested in higher office in 2012.

This time it was Jeff Fortenberry listed. The Hill said,

"...Fortenberry has shown little public interest so far in challenging Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.)."

We always read these things with a bit of interest, because the author is usually basing their statements on...something.

In this case, again, it’s our belief that Fortenberry isn’t interested unless Nelson drops out of the race.

And then the OWH followed up on our post (snark) about Kay Orr . Interestingly they also noted that Rex Fisher says he is NOT running (something we had mentioned). And they also listed Bob Bennie of Lincoln as out (we never heard he was in).

The next name who is potentially interesting is state Senator Deb Fischer of Valentine, who we have discussed here and there.

When her name first came up, she seemed like such a random long-shot that we gave her sort of short shrift. But as all the other names keep popping up...and then back down...Fischer has the potential to interest some people. (We would note that NRL’s Julie Schmidt-Albin quickly came to her defense on our first post. She would have some immediate organizing ability.)

But again, a lot of this depends on whether or not Nelson stays in the race. If he is in, someone like Senator Fischer could make a three or four person race VERY interesting.

Where if Nelson gets out, then there may be two or three other heavy-weights that give it a whirl, and she could have a harder time of it.

Oh, and there’s the State Auditor Mike Foley aspect as well, which would throw in an extra monkey-wrench.

Loads of excitement, kiddos.

***

And then Joe Jordan posted on his blog that Dave Nabity had been vocal about running for Mayor to the Recall Committee peeps, a while back.

We heard this a while ago as well, but don’t think it is that big of a deal.

So Nabity wants to run for Mayor? That’s shocking? Again, are we to think that the MSRC is just a altruistic bunch who are willing to have “Anyone But Suttle”? Come on.

Now maybe it was a bad idea, politically, for Nabity to say it out loud. But otherwise, let’s stop pretending that no one is, or should be, thinking about it.

And who might they be? Hal Daub? Dan Welch? Pete Festersen? Brad Ashford?

Could be.

Once Judge Bataillon gives his decision, the floodgates may well open.

Have your raft ready.

Kay Orr for Senate?

Well this one had us spitting coffee this early morning.

Chris Cilliza of the Washington Post blog, The Fix, says that former Nebraska Governor Kay Orr has been approached to run for Senate in 2012.

And her reaction?

"I can't see any set of circumstances that would persuade me to get in there again," Orr said. "I'm flattered that I've had some people suggest that I do so. They think it would be an interesting rematch."

Asked whether that meant she was ruling out a challenge to Nelson, Orr said with a laugh: "Is that what I just said?

So coy!

OK, look, Orr would be 73 in 2012. We are not saying that disqualifies her or anything, but it is not like she has been heavily involved in the political scene since her defeat to Ben Nelson...TWENTY years ago. We have no doubt Orr is flattered, but we aren't going to get riled up just yet.

Then again, Ben Nelson ain't exactly a Spring chicken either. So maybe they could re-match up.

The thing is here, there are apparently people going around trying to find alternatives to Jon Bruning and Don Stenberg.

We heard the name of Rex Fisher sort of out of nowhere. And now Orr.

And then in another story, The Fix quoted David Kramer saying:

"There are people that are hoping that a candidate captivates them more than Jon does."

Is another big name GOPer needed in this race? We probably haven't heard the last of the names being thrown around.

***

And as long as The Fix is keeping busy, note that Don Stenberg Tweeted (well, he tried anyway) The Fix story that said he is "absolutely" in.

Announcement by Twitter?

***

And as long as we're filling space, you can follow our Twitter feed here.
http://twitter.com/#!/LeavenworthSt

Why they did it

The Omaha World Herald has spent a fair amount of time over the past week defending their reasons for posting an online database listing every person who signed the Mayor Suttle Recall petition.

They’re claimed, “public duty”, and “openness” and all sorts of other reasons.

Here’s one they left out:

TO MAKE MONEY.

The OWH’s internet pages got lots and lots of hits from their little outing-database. And you can bet that those hit counts will be wildly crowed to their advertisers.

And the real use for this database anyway? To spy on others.

As a matter of fact, note the Tweet that went out from the liberal Twittererer, PoliticalOmaha:

Want to know if your friend or neighbor signed the recall? Full searchable database of names...

That is it right there, kiddos.

So enough about all this, “well, the people who sign are really recall volunteers.”

Uh, no. No they’re not.

They are registered voters. (...well, for the most party anyway.) And the OWH did their best to try to shame them and anyone else who wants to sign a petition in the future.

And that’s a shame.

***

Congratulations to Congressman Adrian Smith on his appointment to the House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee. (We Tweeted this the day it was announced, as well.)

Placement on this A-list, tax-writing committee is a plum for Nebraska and for Smith, only in his third term.

It’s too bad that those who heard about this from the LJS’s Don Walton had to hear Don slam Smith via a random other story as well. Without any response from or defense of Smith in the story.

Think that would have happened in a Ben Nelson story?

***

And speaking of Senator Nellie, he sure seems like a Republican when you read about him in the Nebraska papers, doesn’t he?

Well, get him in his element with the rest of the Democrats and his Democrat fur will start to fly.

Case in point with the Senator sitting toe-to-toe with MSNBC’s Chris Matthews (who used to work for long-time Democrat Speaker Tip O’Neill).

His screeching about Republicans may have put a thrill up Matthew’s leg after all. And then Nelson even got a shout-out from the uber-lib blogger, Markos Moulitsas, of the DailyKos, who Tweeted:

I've never seen Ben Nelson speak so negatively about GOP.

It all depends on who he is speaking to, Markos. And depending on who he is raising money from, you probably haven’t seen or heard the last of Nelson yet.

Chatelain Memo: Part Deux

Leavenworth Street readers, we had to reassess our thoughts on this whole memo written by John Chatelain of the Mayor Suttle Recall Committee (MSRC).

We read the memo and believed that some major thought went into this thing, and thus there must be some other motive -- involved with the court case -- that put this thing into action.

But after listening to Chatelain on KFAB’s Tom Becka show (on 12/8 at 5pm), we are re-thinking it a little.  (By the way, in all this MSRC spokesman Jeremy Aspen comes off as the calm, rational one of the whole bunch.)

Instead of being some grand legal plan, we are more inclined to think that Chatelain is simply hurt, bitter and defensive about his dealings with Dave Nabity and the MSRC and decided to hit Nabity before Nabity hit him.

Dave Nabity made it pretty clear that he was extremely critical to Chatelain and had his own ideas about how the MSRC should be run.

So when it got out that Nabity was putting together his own organization to support the recall, Chatelain, Pat McPherson and Jim Cleary got out in front of it with the memo.

In it they not only knocked Nabity for allegedly being heavy handed in his views about running the committee. But they also have essentially alleged that if there was any legal wrongdoing regarding the paid circulators, it is on Nabity.

Now, as we have said, unless the MSRC folks are very, very confident that they are going to win the court case AND the eventual January recall election, this was a very short-sighted bet.  And even worth the potential return?  Not sure we see it.

Sure it provides them some CYA if the court case goes against them. And it hits Nabity early as being over ambitious, or whatever.

But what if it simply gives the Anti-recallers ammo, or results in the tide turning against the recall?

Then it becomes bitter retribution that benefits only Jim Suttle.

We will know how this all turns out in a just a little over a month (potentially).

In the mean time, never a dull moment, eh?

**UPDATE Thurs evening**

From Jeremy Aspen of the Mayor Suttle Recall Committee:

Rg: Letter Issued by John Chatelain on December 8th, 2010

As a committee we want to clarify that the letter issued by John Chatelain on December 8th, to the press was not approved nor does it reflect the beliefs of the Mayor Suttle Recall Committee.  The opinions and facts as see through his eyes remain solely his.

We welcome any efforts that individuals or organizations may have or will contribute to our cause and moreover are honored by their participation.

As a committee we remain steadfast in our endeavor to recall the mayor.

The release was signed personally by the rest of the committee.

So there ya go.

Why the Chatelain Memo?

On Wednesday, Mayor Suttle Recall Committee (MSRC) Treasurer John Chatelain wrote an extensive memo criticizing the actions of David Nabity as they related to Nabity’s involvement with the MSRC.

The OWH and Nebraska Watchdog among others have couched this as a hit by Chatelain on Nabity’s Mayoral ambitions.

But is that all it is?

First, click here to read the entire memo.

(That is sort of crucial to this whole matter, and frankly in this day and age of terabyte drives, Wikileaks and the internet tubes, is there really any excuse for NOT posting the whole thing?
Sheesh.)

OK, we will assume you’ve read it, or will do so when you’re done reading this post.

So here are our assumptions for Why Chatelain Wrote the Memo:

1. He is so caught up in political gamesmanship that he didn’t care if he threatened the entire recall by displaying the dirty laundry for all to see.

2. He is positive that Judge Pete Bataillon is going to rule against them and throw out the signatures and he is covering his ass.

3. He is nervous about how Judge Bataillon will rule, so he is throwing Nabity under the bus with the hope that none of it will stick on the MSRC.

That’s what we’ve got.

So let us break them down.
(Go ahead, refill that coffee, because we are getting in thick.)

***

The idea behind #1 is that Chatelain is wildly upset by the idea that Nabity tried to kick him out of the organization that he “founded” and take it over himself. He is so enraged that he is willing to potentially risk the very recall, just so that Dave Nabity can’t use any benefits he derived from it in order to get himself elected Mayor.

That is pretty much the gist of the OWH’s article on this.

But does that make any sense?

Sure it’s all relatively accurate depending on your point of view, but where does that get Chatelain? He says Nabity tried to take over the MSRC and he needs to “out” that in order to save the “integrity” of the organization.

What integrity?

They’re trying to throw Jim Suttle out of the Mayor’s office. We get it. It is what it is. It is politics. There is no inherit integrity involved. They want someone else in. Fine.

But are we to understand that Chatelain and the rest are simply in favor of Anyone But Suttle after that? Of course not. They want their candidate to step in, and apparently that ain’t Nabity.

But what if it is? Who cares? There are no points for integrity in all of this.

And by the way, one could make a very easy argument that they never would have gotten enough signatures if Nabity hadn’t been proactive to help fund the whole thing.

So if there isn’t more to it, didn’t he just hand the Anti-Recallers and the Judge some juicy info to dig into. So we get that Chatelain has an axe to grind against Nabity, but again, where does writing this three page memo get them after that?

No where. And when you read all the rest of the arguments Chatelain put in the memo, you can see that there must have been another reason for this.

***

So what are the reasons behind #2 -- He is positive that Judge Pete Bataillon is going to rule against them and throw out the signatures and he is covering his ass.

Well, note that Chatelain -- an attorney -- goes to great lengths to talk about the outside groups that Nabity and his money brought in and how they were paid.

He talks about how Nabity “independently” hired Paul Jacobs of Citizens in Charge and how Jacobs would be paid. He then goes into some detail about how the “paid workers” would be paid. (Which paid workers isn’t clear.)

And of course, at the crux of the whole Anti-recallers court argument is how the circulators were paid.

So that gets us back to the reasoning on all this.

Does Chatelain think this is all going kerplooey and he wants to make the case that Nabity is all to blame and the MSRC is otherwise clean as the fallen snow?

Man, if that’s the case, he must REALLY be sure about his position. Because otherwise it would seem like he just threw out some ammo for Vince Powers (unless of course Powers already has this info, and will succeed with it).

***

Then there is #3 -- He is nervous about how Judge Bataillon will rule, so he is throwing Nabity under the bus with the hope that none of it will stick on the MSRC.

If we had to bet, this is where we would put our cash. This is probably the argument they will make in their defense on the issue, if it is deemed that there was some sort of untoward payments going on. “It wasn’t the MSRC! Nabity did it!”

And then if they are successful in court, they can attempt to point to Nabity to say, “And HE almost screwed it up! Don’t vote for him!”

Now whether that part of the argument is true or not, that’s really a branch of #1 above. They might get that out of #3, but we would be very surprised to discover that #1 is the only reason for the memo.

***

So while the political intrigue is much more juicy in all of this, we think it is really based in the MSRC’s legal argument on December 20th.

So when the Judge rules, crank your hearing aides towards any mention of Citizens in Charge, what they did, and how they were paid.

There is a decent chance that the whole argument turns on that.

And then we can come back to the Chatelain Memo to see what he really meant.

**UPDATE-Dec 9**

Folks, in order to understand this even better, I think you need to listen to Nabity, Chatelain and Aspen on Tom Becka from last night.

Click here to go to Becka's podcast page -- you can also just click "Listen" to hear it.

Nabity is on the second half of the 4pm one, but then mainly listen to the 5pm one to hear Chatelain and Aspen as well.

After listening (we didn't hear it last night) we are inclined to change our views on all this, a bit.

We will have another post up later.

Thinking about it

A few interesting notes from the story in the OWH about whether or not Ben Nelson will run for reelection in 2012.

First various talkers predicted (as no doubt directed) that Ben will run again. Then again, Tony Raimondo also told us way back when that he would be a lifelong Republican, so take it for what it’s worth.

But then note the names Robynn Tysver listed as being interested in a Senate bid, along with Bruning, Flynn and Stenberg: State Auditor Mike Foley and Rep Jeff Fortenberry.

Now we are still of the belief that either Foley or Fortenberry may run, but not both.

So for one, the fact that either is listed means that there is still some serious consideration going on.

However, we and many other had pretty much marked Fort off the list. Well, that is unless Nelson decides not to run in 2012. In which case the floodgates may open, and someone like Fortenberry would be much more likely to run.

And again, the fact that the OWH printed that each of those two is interested means that there is some serious consideration by each.

Not to mention, who the OWH may back.

***

Then there was Omaha Mayor Jim Suttle on his media kvetching tour -- first there was Channel 6, then KFAB, and now his woe-is-me to the OWH.

And who is really taking the brunt of this Recall business? Well, the Mayor says, that would be his nine-year-old grandson. (Of course maybe the Mayor should direct Sonny towards Captain Underpants instead of the blogs.)

But here is an idea: Shouldn’t the Mayor resign now, instead of subjecting the boy to all this pain and anguish?

(Hey, he invoked his grandson, not us.)

And for Roget’s sake Aida, please hand the Mayor another cliché instead of “nose-to-the-grindstone”. He is giving worn-out phrases a bad name. Sounding like a broken-record. You get the picture.

***

And we are still hearing rumblings about the various candidates who may or may not get into the race, should the Mayor fall in January.

Of course many of the names are all based on whether or not the GOP Elephant in the room, Hal Daub, gets in or not.

If he is out, you will probably need a Rolodex to keep track of all the interested candidates.

Candidating

Nebraska Lieutenant Governor Rick Sheehy was featured in the New York Times last week in a story about the nation’s Lt. Governors.

Well kind of.

He was listed first anyway, and got the large photo, standing behind Governor Dave.

Sheehy’s chunk in the article was...

How does a lieutenant governor shake hands with the governor? He clasps firmly and extends two fingers up the governor’s sleeve to check for a pulse. “We teach that here,” said Lt. Gov. Rick Sheehy of Nebraska, displaying the proper form. “I check the pulse of my governor every day. But my governor was a lieutenant governor, so he says stop.”

The story was about the country’s chief ribbon-cutters at the NLGA New Member - Executive Committee meeting that was held in Omaha -- and that most, if not all, members strive to one day be Governors themselves.

And though 2014 is a waaays off, we always like to throw it open to see who will be interested in this gig.

We have a few ideas.

You?

***

The Washington Post political blog, The Fix, listed those U.S. Senators most likely to not run for re-election in the 2012 election.

And coming in at number five...Ben Nelson!

Chris Cillizza notes,

“Nelson will be 71 on Election Day 2012 and, given what he's up against, may decide to step aside.”

Hmm.

By the way, while Jon Bruning is gearing up, we still understand that the GOP lineup is far from closed. Don Stenberg is considered by many to be in, though we would note it isn’t clear who would run his camp.

We heard the name Rex Fisher thrown around as a candidate.

State Senator Deb Fischer of Valentine still may be interested, and may have some backing.

Then, of course, there is the only actual announced candidate , Pat Flynn.

And kids, there are some who believe that if there is a multi-multi-candidate primary, it may not be a cake-walk, or even favor, Jon Bruning.

Just what we hear.

***

And you will notice that, for the benefit of the non-Omahans, we are burying the Mayor Suttle Recall news at the bottom of this post! (Don’t say we never do anything for you.)

So the Mayor was on with KFAB’s Scott Voorhees this morning, and had a few interesting tidbits:

1) After Voorhees plead with the Mayor to have Vince Powers or the Forward Omaha folks return his calls, Suttle promised he would ask them to do so -- but only to Voorhees and not "some of his colleagues".

You will remember that KFAB’s Tom Becka, Gary Sadlemyer and Jim Rose all reportedly signed the petition to recall the Mayor.

So in other words, No Scoops for You!

2) And FWIW, the Mayor twice wished Voorhees “Merry Christmas” -- right smack in the middle of Hanukkah.

Oh vey.

3) And we will let others argue out whether the deposition statements of the circulator meant that he was being paid “by the signature”.

But we would only point out that it is purely plausible that the circulator was told that he needed to step up getting more signatures or he wouldn’t be hired-back for the next round. Now if that is illegal -- and we don’t think it is -- then maybe they have a case.  To an extent.

But we continually hear Vince Powers saying that it how clear it is that absolutely there is definitely fraud without a doubt, positively.

Overselling much there Vince?

Only two more weeks of this uncertainty!

Counted

Just a quick post to say the signatures to Recall Omaha Mayor Jim Suttle have been officially counted.

They (semi) officially got 28,720 signatures, 2,077 more than the needed 26,643.

But the kicker in that sentence is "semi".

The semi is Judge Pete Bataillon's hearing on December 20th.

At that point we will hear if more than that 2,000 plus will be thrown out, or all of them, or nothing. And then that could be appealed.

And then it is not clear at what point the January 25th election could or would be pushed back, if they are cleared.

Note that the Anti's are also saying that they have deposed testimony that a circulator was paid by the sig. The Recallers say that claim is unfounded, mainly because no one was collecting the alleged 10 signatures per hour.  It's not clear how that could or would affect any count.

So gird your loins for some hot court action the next few weeks.

***

Oh, and Go Huskers!

Piping up

We have been watching the issue of the TransCanada Keystone XL Pipeline with interest for the past number of months.

All along we have felt that we have been hearing from only one side on this issue, and have wondered about it.

The state group, Bold Nebraska, run by avowed Democrat and leftist, Jane Fleming Kleeb, has been the main bunch pushing against the pipeline. And of course whenever they would round up their group of “experts”, they always came from the standard set of environmental groups who frown on anything hinting of an internal combustion engine.

(And whenever you can get testimony on pipeline technology and groundwater from a Fox News talking head from Florida who was recently elected to the Hastings School Board, you do it, right?)

Well, Bold Nebraska and the rest showed their cards this week, and we can now see what their REAL beef with the pipeline is.

They hate oil and everything about it.

How do we know this?

Check out their first official TV spot on the pipeline.



Note that it is paid for by the “No Tar Sands Oil Coalition”.
Note their website is “Dirty Oil Sands .org”.
Note their emphasis over and over about how “dirty” the oil would be.

What does the cleanliness of oil have to do with a potential leak? Nothing of course.

But all we have heard in the past number of months is, oh this will blow up like the Gulf spill and will contaminate the Aquifer!

Except none of that is supported by science.

You’ve got the scientists from the hearing at the capitol in Lincoln on Wednesday who said that anything that went into the Aquifer could not do any widespread contamination.

And then there was the testimony that the pipeline would be (of course) the most advanced version of a pipeline in existence.

And then there was (thank Gaia) the point made that an above-ground or shallow-buried pipeline would be NOTHING like what is in the freaking Gulf. That was an oil platform in the middle of the sea that ran 5,000 freaking feet down. DOWN. Not a pipe across the prairie.

So sure we understand the NIMBY factor from anyone who has something they don’t understand go across their land. But when people then go on to say that the state should not take “any chances” with a pipeline, well. Then what about the pipelines that run across the rest of the state? Or those across the rest of the country, or the world? By that logic shouldn’t ALL of them be shut down?

Well, if Jane Kleeb and her minions had their way that is exactly what would happen.

Instead of getting badly needed oil -- needed to run pretty much every engine in the country -- from neighboring ally Canada, they would rather we get it from the Mideast or dictators like Chavez? Windmills are awesome and all that, but they aren’t going to run a tractor, let alone a jet engine, any time soon.

Let us finally quote UNL hydro-geologist, Jim Goecke -- who specializes in the Sandhills and its aquifers:

"When people say the whole Ogallala Aquifer is at risk, they're wrong.”

And that is the case no matter how many scare tactic ads the Sierra Club and Bold Nebraska run.

UFOs

We are still getting a kick out of the half-(bottomed) attempts by Forward Omaha, Vince Powers, and all of the rest of Omaha Mayor Jim Suttle’s mouthpieces to nix the Recall.

Their Exhibits? Five undercover, shaky, videos, with fishbowl-like audio, of circulators.

Which they have lied about.

Lied?! Well then the Anti-Recallers should be thrown out, no?

You’d think so, wouldn’t ya?

For instance, there is the video labeled,

Circulator Talks About Payment By Quota

Now mind you, THIS is the video they Anti’s are really hanging their beanies on.  This is the one, baby.  This will shut it all down.  Are you ready?

Let’s go to the YouTubes!



OK, here is the transcript of the money talk (so to speak):

Undercover Forward Omaha: Have you made your quota yet?

Circulator: Recall! Uh, I don’t know.

(Unintelligible) ...we gotta get like ten signatures an hour.

UFO: Ten signatures an hour to get $20 an hour?

Circulator: Yeah.

UFO: OK.

Now. Keep in mind kids, they are trying to make this admissible in court.

So someone said something was a quota? Yes, that would be... the UFO! If some random dude starts asking about how YOU get paid, are you going to give him all the details? And then did the UFO nail down if ten sigs was a requirement to get paid...or simply a goal?

Of course not.

But Forward Omaha and Vince Powers and Jim Suttle want the Judge to believe this dripping water shooter is really a Smoking Gun.

Riiiight.

***

And then the UFOs set up another entitled:

Circulator Claims 15% Tax on Restaurant

Hmm. Really? Well, again, let’s look at the actual blurry video:



And here is the transcript of what the dude says.

The Mayor went ahead and put a 15% sales tax on all the restaurants and all the food, so now when you go to a restaurant it’s 15% more, in the City of Omaha, whereas outside of Omaha you don’t pay that.

And that is 100% false dude!

Because the actual increase was 28.5%!

Wait, what?

That’s right math wizards, an increase from 7% to 9% is a 28.5% increase. So you are paying 28.5% more in taxes. (And we are actually leaving out the fact that it’s a tax on a tax and it’s really more than that, but the math is easier this way. You’re welcome Mayor.)

So the guy got it wrong.  He undercut it.  But of course...so what?

Because that guy IS NOT A CIRCULATOR!

The guy from Omaha, holding the clipboard, collecting the signature is the circulator. The guy talking is supporting the position. So video him all day long if you want. Maybe he has a YouTube site. Maybe his YouTube site will be admissible in court.

Or maybe not.

***

And while we’re at it, please tell us which of these signatures is invalid.

Oh wait, NONE, because the UFOs didn’t sign the petition!

So here is the reality people:

The people who wanted to sign the petition, signed the pettion.
Those who did not want to -- like the UFOs here -- didn’t.

So cross out all the Mickey Mouses and Gretna residents.

And count up the rest, Phippsy.

The “other” Nelson

We felt it necessary to bust out a quick post regarding the OWH’s latest anti-Recall column, prior to this morning's hearing on the issue.

This time instead of the OWH publisher writing an Op-Ed, or a reporter expressing their opinion, they actually got one of their columnists to write an anti-Recall piece.

So Robert Nelson summarized some undercover videos that the Anti-Recallers showed him of the Recallers collecting signatures.

(And hey Forward Omahaers.  How about posting those on YouTube for the rest of us to analyze?  This is all supposed to be public right?  What gives?)

Here are a few points Nelson makes (you have to buy the actual paper in order to read the whole thing):

The collectors said:

• The Mayor put a 15% tax on restaurants.
• The estimates about the cost of the elections are wrong.
• Federal money would pay for the election.
• Something something about how we may get paid.

OK folks, we don’t imagine that Noelle and Forward Omahaish held anything back from Nelson. Those had to be the money quotes.

And that’s it?

Here’s the deal: If you went to sign a petition, some dude holding a piece of paper ain’t the person with all the facts. Would you expect someone going door to door for a candidate to have all the facts on that candidate?  How about someone waving a sign outside the polls?  Hey, how about the candidate saying something that was untrue in their own ad?  If they were wrong or even lied, would that make the election illegitimate?

Of course not.  (But is there a method in the books on how to throw that person out?  Hmm.)

That’s why they have the statements from both sides there to read. (And the “it must be read” is an idiotic law, but we’ll let the Judge deal with that.)

And then the “breaking the law” part that Nelson alleges (oooh! here’s the state statute!), is anecdotal at best. “We’ve got to get, like, 10 signatures an hour.” OK, was that a goal? A requirement? A cutoff?

Judge Bataillon can get to the bottom of that super-interesting question. But if that’s the best the Anti’s have on that issue? Next.

So you really want the money quote from all of this?

See Election Commissioner Dave Phipps:

"We haven't seen anything that has been outrageously fraudulent or anything like that."

Keep counting kids.

**UPDATE**

As we suspected, this issue isn't yet ripe.

Judge Pete Bataillon told them to keep counting and, if the Election Commish says they have enough signatures, then he will decide if the Anti's argument has merit.

So he essentially gave the Anti's an additional two weeks -- December 20th -- to gather their arguments.

One thing that we will wait to see:  If they say they have the sigs on Friday, will the Pro and Anti forces begin their campaign for a potential January 25th election?  Otherwise it is an even shorter window.

We have a feeling it will be all systems go (if'n they get the sigs) after Friday.

**UPDATE UPDATE**

Well Joe Jordan swung that controversial video from the Forward Omaha folks, and oh my!

Let's just say that in comparison, the Zapruder film practically showed the mugshots and drivers licenses of the guys on the Grassy Knoll.

Take a look, for all of the twenty-six seconds of undercover camera glory:



My garsh, how could Judge Bataillon NOT throw out the Recall with that stellar piece of evidence.

Keep counting...

**UPDATEUPDATEUPDATE**

And here is the rest of the Anti's "case".



Note that "case" is in quotes.  If you were describing it to someone you would put your fingers up and use little "air quotes" to symbolize how ridiculous their "case" is.

Might there not be enough signatures?  Maybe.  (Mightly?)

But this recall ain't going to get thrown out based on those four videos.

We're convinced this was always a stall tactic to get additional time to knock out signatures, and nothing more.

Forward Omaha should have to pay the court costs for this heap.

Do you recall?

You know that Leavenworth Street does a year-end round up of political quotes. One of our favorite (if not extremely labor intensive) posts.

Well, Noelle Obermeyer of the anti-Recallers gave us a hit for November:

“We've had people call back and say, 'I signed the petition, but I didn't know it was to recall the mayor.'”

Yowza.

Noelle, here is what we would like you to do.

Make a list of all the individuals who give such asinine remarks, because we are heading to their homes and ripping their voter registration cards away from them. If some court finds that to be unconstitutional, then we will plant some illegally downloaded Justin Bieber mp3s on them, charge them with a felony and yank their voting privileges that way.

These people shouldn’t be allowed to own bank cards, let alone be directing who should be running our Republic.

Oh, and by the way Noelle, THAT’s your best situation for why the Anti’s need more time?

Heck if I’m judge Bataillon I would throw you out of court and let you know that, tough luck, that one goes down as a “Signed the Petition”.

***

And we all saw the OWH’s analysis of the signatures. Of course the OWH has their own bias going into this, and clearly are just trying to influence the court here. Let’s not pretend that they, or anyone else involved in this entire matter, is above reproach.

And then the OWH also published their, “Looky who signed!” article. They focus on Dave Nabity and some restaurateurs.

Then at the end they note KFAB jocks (spinning the hits of the 60’s, 70’s & 80’s!) Tom Becka, Gary Sadlemyer and Jim Rose.

So, while we haven’t had the time (or inclination) to scan the 39,000 names for everyone we can think of, we noticed they didn’t list any World Herald employees that may have signed.

You know, for a little balance.

Or maybe they just didn’t realize that their signature was to recall the Mayor...

***

And speaking of media guys against Mayor, how about Aida Amoura freezing out KMTV for some bad story, but not the KFAB guys for trying to kick out the Mayor?

Or maybe they’ve already been frozen, and it just doesn’t matter.

Or maybe she doesn’t want to take on the 50,000 watt blowtorch that is KFAB.

In any case, we are already enjoying the Amoura Press Shop’s efforts at outreach.

Exhibit A: The Mayor’s hostage “Thanksgiving” tape.

Did you see that?

ICYMI, please do take a look:



(Btw, way to keep it in the family Aida!)

That’s some serious teleprompter reading. Next to him, you can see Mrs. Suttle blinking out the morse-code for “Rescue Me Now!”.

And the Mayor’s message? “Gee whiz, I’m just working SO hard that I have had a hard time getting my message out to you about how awesome I am!”

Reallllly Aida? My that’s some subtle script you put together there (no pun intended).

It’s right up there with the interview response to the “what are your faults” question. “Oh, sometimes I just work too hard and too late.”

How about some Homer Simpson honesty?  “Well, it takes me a long time to learn anything, I'm kind of a goof-off, little stuff starts disappearing from the workplace...”

Or, “I lie to the voters in my campaigns, I raise taxes instead of finding other alternatives, I make questionable hires..”


Looking forward to some court news tomorrow!

Gobble Gobble Gobble!

Do you need a pre-Turkey appetizer of politics while you throw back some Joe and listen to the parades trundle past Macy’s?

Of course you do!

***

First, KMTV tells us that brand-spanking-new Communications Director for Omaha Mayor Jim Suttle has banned them! They’ve been banned! (Well, apparently from any interviews, anyway.)

And for what?

For releasing public information.

Yup.

Seems KMTV reported on salaries of City departments heads and the Mayor. So, of course, Aida Amoura-Rezac, a former reporter herself, blackballed ‘em.

Now some will argue that no one is watching KMTV anyway (zing!).  But really, is this the way to go into a campaign? Pissing off the local media?  (And of course that is beyond the whole outright ridiculousness of Amoura-Rezac-Gerard's actions.

There is an old saying about picking fights with people who buy ink by the barrel. There must be a similar one regarding people who buy video tapes by the crate.

***

But of course that’s only a lead-in to the news that Suttle has filed a for a restraining order in District Court because he wants seventy-five -- 75! -- additional days to fight the Recall signature review process.

An additional two and a half months? That’s some slow counters.

Oh, but it’s basically so they can try to bitch and moan about every single signature possible. The anti-Recallers claim that people weren’t -- gasp! -- told the whole truth when they signed the petitions.

Is that riiiiight???

Well, we have an actual photo and video of a certain Mayoral candidate holding a sign telling voters that he was going to lower property taxes.

How many extra days to we get to contest that?

Oh yeah...fifteen.

Keep counting Phippsy. Keep counting.

***

Michigan Senator Debbie “Florence Henderson” Stabenow got the Agriculture Committee Chairpersonship -- instead of Ben Nelson.

Some had suggested that Nelson would get the Ag Chair in order to keep him from switching parties. Now that he didn’t get it, we will see him marching down the aisle with Mike Johanns and the gang right?

Or not.

***

Hey Leavenworth Street readers, on this day of giving thanks, we would like to tell you how thankful we are for you coming to our blog and reading and writing yourself!

Leavenworth Street has grown in readership in each of the four years we have been around, and we are looking to embiggen in year number five as well.. (With some changes? Hmm....)

So as you fall into that tryptophan coma, dream of a place where politics is discussed, fun is made and a good read is had by all.

And then come back to Leavenworth Street to experience it in real life.

Gobble-gobble!

Jumping the gun

First we just would like to let everyone know that, Yes, Coach P. called us up and screamed at us on Saturday night. But we are OK with it. And after talking to our high school blogging coach, we want you to know that we are not quitting. OK? OK.

***

So, we thought it interesting that Robyn Tysver of the OWH put together a list of Omaha Mayoral maybes, if a) the recall signatures go through and b) Suttle then loses a recall vote.

A little hasty of the OWH, no? Sounds like something WE would have done, right?

Well, nice to see that the newspaper is catching up, and we appreciate their insight.

So here is what we think of their list, and others who should or shouldn’t be on it:


1) Hal Daub

Unless someone tells us otherwise, we have to assume Hal is in.

First, interesting that the OWH has changed his name from “Hal Daub” to “Hal Daub, 69”. Very subtle there OWH (pun not intended).

But here are our thoughts on a potential Daub campaign: Hal once again will have to combat any preconceived notions of himself and his personality, etc. He will have to run as “the man you know” -- meaning a guy who can get the job done.

Differently though, Daub will have to completely spell out what he would/will do differently as Mayor to turn things around. He will have to let voters vote on the “Hal Daub Plan” -- instead of simply voting on “Hal Daub, the person”.

It will really need to be a “if you want a ‘perhaps and maybe’ plan, then vote for the other guys. But you did that with Suttle.  If you want to implement my plan, I’m your guy.” Otherwise Daub will fall victim to the “he’s a mean ogre” campaign that Suttle ran. He will need to be specific.

The risk there is that someone else just does a “me too!” on his plan. But that is the sort of risk he will have to take.

2) Dave Nabity

Again, unless someone says otherwise, we will assume he is in.

Nabity has the benefit of being Hal Daub-esque, without many of the negatives that Daub has built up through the years. But if Nabity is Daub-Lite, would voters be more likely to go with the Real Thing? It could possibly come down to that.

**Update**

All of that being said, a commenter noted that the City Charter states that a candidate for Mayor must have lived in the city "for five consecutive years immediately prior to taking office..."

We don't know all the details of his residency, but this may be an issue for him. Any legal beagles can let us know more on this.

**Update update**

It is our understanding that Nebraska state law takes precedence over the city charter, and that the Nebraska law says Mayor has a six month residency requirement.  This being the case, we understand that Nabity would meet the requirements.

3) Pete Festersen

If the Democrats need to get behind someone, it is probably Festersen. But though he has made some votes, he is still essentially an unknown to voters.

He was unopposed for his City Council race, so didn’t have to really campaign. And like it or not, someone has to carry the stink of the Fahey years and decisions.  Festersen, a top Fahey aide, will have a a target on his back for all of that.

The relatievely young Festersen (40) hasn’t had to face up to that yet, but in a Mayoral race, absolutely would. That could pose a real problem.

4) Scott Hazelrigg

We have put Hazelrigg on our various lists in the past, but we found it interesting that Tysver included him in her list. There had to be someone who suggested him or pushed him, because otherwise he is quite an unknown to make the big list.

Hazelrigg has had the backing of Suzie Buffet and her deepest pockets for a while, and there are certainly many who think, “he’s a smart, good looking guy; he is what Omaha needs!”

Except that Hazelrigg is a complete unknown in most of the city. He doesn’t have much to hang his hat on, and has a few demerits in his career. He also just took the gig at the Omaha Home for Boys, in a position that usually is long term.

Could be just a trial balloon. But keep an eye on this one.

5) Jim Vokal

Is Vokal willing to give it another shot? He recently started a new gig himself, and has kept himself active on the MECA board.

But someone like Vokal would not just be able to decide to run and “go for it”. He would need to have immediate financial backing and political support to make him a front runner.

If he was the least bit half-hearted or unsupported, he would have a hard time.

6) Dan Welch

It is our understanding that former councilman Welch is looking at this. But we would be surprised if he pulled the trigger here, in the end.

7) Tom White

After the “shellacking” that White took (to use the President’s words), we would doubt that Dems would back him so soon. We think White will need to take a break before coming back.

And now those left off the list.

8) P.J. Morgan

He wasn’t listed as a yes or a no, but Morgan has gotta be thinking about it. Just elected -- unopposed -- to the Douglas County Board, Morgan is politically “back”. Though the DCB is a much easier decision than Mayor.

Morgan is someone who could immediately gather the funds for a run. But, like it or not, Morgan will still have to have a heart-to-heart with voters on why he suddenly quit the job back in ‘94. Yes, we understand that it was a “personal” decision. But in this very public job, Morgan would have to be much more forthcoming for voters to trust him again.

Or is 17 years long enough for voters to forget?

9) Brad Ashford

Tysver lists Ashford among the “not going to run”.

Don’t you believe it.

Right now Ashford is the face of the anti-Recall campaign, and he couldn’t come out now and say “but just in case...” People would immediately question his sincerity, right?

But if Suttle is out, look for Ashford to suddenly say, “well, for the good of the City...”

He will position himself as a “Republican who can work with Democrats”. But of course, the pro-higher taxes, pro-abortion, pro-gun ban Ashford is really the face of the word “RINO” in the political dictionary.

Ashford would simply be Jim Suttle with a wig and glasses. Or at least that’s the way his opponents would/should frame him.

10) Someone Else!

The way things stand now, this race has the potential to be really wide open. If enough credible names get in, second place could be a battle. So if someone with the right backing decides to play, everything could change.

Stay tuned.

***

And hey, we haven’t forgotten about you non-Omahans! We have a little statewide news.

First, remember Pay Flynn? Well, he announced quite a while back that he was running for Senate in 2012.

And not to be left out on all the discussions, he announced it again. He is now (surprise!) trying to position himself as the Tea Party candidate. Watch that drum get banged repeatedly the next few years.

Then there is a name that is currently being floated around as an alternative to Jon Bruning:

Rex Fisher, President of Qwest, who is retiring this year.

Fisher was recently featured in the OWH, and has been mentioned as a potential President for the Omaha Metropolitan Utilities District board.

But lately certain business types have been floating his name for Senate.

The main question now is if Fisher is really interested in that job.

And then there is the fact that Bruning is efficiently locking up support in the business community on his own.

Things are still interesting here, nonetheless.

They’re IN

The signatures are in.
Or at least they might as well be.

The OWH is reporting that “they have learned” that the Mayor Suttle Recall Committee will be turning in 37,000 some signatures.

We were informed on Wednesday that they had somewhere in the neighborhood of 32K sigs -- so if you had the “Under” (Noelle Obermeyer, we are looking in your direction ), you lose.

Speaking of Ms. Obermeyer (because if you have the opportunity to have a student be your campaign spokesperson, you always say yes, right?), she is posturing that the anti-Recallers will,

“...use any and all efforts that we have to ensure that the recall effort doesn't go through.”

Geez Noelle. Jeremy Aspen and the gang might want to think about an armored escort into the Courthouse.

What she really means though is “Lawyer Up!”

They’re still gearing to knock off more than 10,000 of those signatures, and are apparently hoping to depose at least that many. Though Election Commissioner Dave Phipps is already hinting that this will be tough to do, based on past counting procedures.

We are guessing that the Antis would be better off spending their money on the upcoming campaign -- but when you have unlimited resources (cough...Dick Holland...cough) maybe you don’t care.

You can come back later to see what the official unofficial turn-in numbers are.
Or not.

Or just, Go Huskers!

3PM Friday

At 3:00 PM today (Friday) the Mayor Suttle Recall Committee will submit their gathered signatures to the Douglas County Election Commissioner.

As we (1st-ed-ly) noted earlier this week, the Recallers state they have enough signatures to initiate an up-or-down vote on Suttle. Channel 6 is reporting that they are looking at having 30% more than the 26,000+ sigs, anticipating that as many as that could be thrown out.  (If they have 33,000 signatures, they’ll need a lower percentage than that.)

Ah but hang on! Creighton Law Student, and anti-Recall spokesperson, Noelle Obermeyer says they are ready to depose the petitioners! (Assuming, of course, that she has taken Trial Practice at school.) So we are guessing the 15 day review process could get stretched out muuuuuch later.

(And for a chuckle, be sure to check out the undercover video they apparently provided to Channel 7.  Or maybe it's of the Blair Witch.  Be sure to take some Dramamine first.)
We still think that’s an awful lot of signatures they would hope to get rid of -- and note that in these types of cases, courts generally try not to go against voters’ intentions. So, for instance, if a petitioner didn’t read the entire statement, but the person still signed, a judge isn’t likely to throw it out.

But who knows? Anything can still happen right?

And does Jim Suttle benefit from the extended time to prep for a vote? Really depends on what sort of things happen between then and now, right?

***

In any case, Mayor Suttle is now saying that he won’t resign, if the signatures come in. His reasoning?

“I made a pact with the voters to serve four years...”

Really? A pact? When was this? And it was only with “the voters”? So not just with all the citizens of Omaha? It was with a subsection, i.e., just those who voted?

Well then, that must have been during the campaign sometime.

But a pact? Is that like a promise?

Like the one to lower property taxes?

We have so many questions...

***

We will update sometime after 3:00.

See you then!

Word on the Street: Recallers have the signatures

Leavenworth Street has learned, albeit not officially, that the Mayor Suttle Recall Committee has obtained more than the 26,643 signatures needed to force a vote on a recall of Omaha Mayor Jim Suttle.

We have been told that when the Recallers turn in the signatures on Friday, the numbers will be around 31 - 32,000 -- more than 5,000 over the needed number.

There have been standard rumblings from the anti-Recallers that some or many signatures are or will be invalid. But 5,000 of them? That’s tough.

If it is then found that enough signatures were collected, Mayor Suttle would have five days to resign -- and save the expense of the recall vote.

If he does not resign, a vote will be held 30 to 45 days later.

And at that point, who gets off their duffs to vote?
Those who want to save him, or those who want him out?

And if he is out, who is in?

We could have an exciting political season coming...

Monday meanderings

Can Jon Bruning be beaten in a three-way race?

Omaha attorney, and former Senate candidate, Dave Kramer tells the AP that he thinks it is possible.

Of course anything is possible.

The theory is that Bruning would be joined by two other relatively strong candidates -- in this scenario, Don Stenberg and Mike Foley (who gave Don Walton a “maybe, maybe not”) -- in the 2012 GOP primary.

We would agree that, of course, in a three-way race the vote is going to be more dilluted. But there is no particular reason to think that votes for Foley would necessarily come from Bruning to give Stenberg a win, as Kramer hints.

Frankly, it could be just as plausible that the Attorneys General could split the AG votes, thus giving Foley a tilt.  Or that anti-Bruning votes are split between Foley and Stenberg, giving Bruning an easy layup.

Then again this discussion is all in a vacuum and does not really mean much.

What are the issues? Who is getting their message out? Who knows?

The best point made in the article is that if Ben Nelson does not run, the candidate list may very well change -- to possibly include a Jeff Fortenberry or Lee Terry. Now THAT would shake things up.

And just to round things out, Kramer threw this one out:

"If Ben is the nominee in 2012, whoever his opposing candidate is will be scrutinized like they've never been scrutinized before. Ben's task will be to tear down whoever his opponent is _ and he'll do it. There will not be a nook or a cranny not explored."

Now kiddies, Kramer here is making an oh-so-subtle hint that maybe one of the candidates could have background issues to be examined. We will go further to say that DK is suggesting that maybe GOP voters should tilt towards someone more squeaky clean.  You probably haven 't heard the last of this.

FYI readers: This primary may not be pretty.

***

In the mean time, Bruning has Shane Osborn as a campaign chairman. Good to see Shane staying involved, and good for Bruning to quickly gather his team.

And Ben Nelson tells us that when he votes for Harry Reid as Majority Leader, it really means that he is “independent”. Got that?

***

Lots of Recall circulators on the main streets across Omaha over the weekend. (But were there any at the Qwest Center before or after the Creighton game on Sunday? Would have seemed like a prime spot to be...)

Note that the opposition has gone from, “they won’t get enough” to “they’re illegal!”. Of course those protests are anecdotal, and haven’t proved to be official yet. If the Recallers fail to get enough, we doubt it will be because Wayne Dwops from Keeffaulin, HD signed the petition eight times.

Watch for hints from each side that they’re going into the campaign-vote mode.

***

Be sure to follow our Tweets at Twitter.com/LeavenworthSt for the occasional update.
(It's what all the cool kids are doing...)

Friday machinations

We keep reading, via our news service, that Republicans are trying to get Ben Nelson to switch parties.

We just don’t see it.

Not that Republicans won’t try. But we just don’t see someone like Nelson switching parties.

Of course it could only come about if Republicans could wrest control of the Senate. But even then, what does it do? It would simply force the President to bust out his veto pen more often.

In the mean time, what would it do for Nelson?

We highly doubt it would affect Jon Bruning’s plans to take him on -- a’la Arlen Specter’s intra-party defeat in Pennsylvania. We don’t see Nebraska Republicans suddenly embracing Ben Nelson.

And in any case, there are now rumblings that Democrats might award Nelson Chairmanship of the Ag Committee as a gift for staying a Democrat.

Which really would be the Nelson M.O. Straddle the fence, being coy to each side, until one or the other tries to buy you off.

Nelson mouthman, Jake Thompson said that Nelson “has no interest in changing parties. He is and always will be an independent voice for Nebraska.”

Uh...Nelson is an “Independent” now, Jake? What does your statement have to do with switching parties?

Come January, we still expect to see Nelson with a (D) next to his name.

And not an R...or an I.

***

Though there are now stories that Nelson may cave and back some of the Republican plans to repeal some of the Health Care legislation.

Of course this is comical for any number of reasons.  But it would, or could, indicate that Nelson is more serious about running in 2012 than anything else.

If he's not running, why bother?

If he is, he will never be able to buy himself cover, but we can see him try.

***

So Chuck Hagel thinks two years is too short a time to judge the President?

Funny how Hagel was OK judging Pennsylvania U.S. Senate candidate -- and Senator-elect -- Pat Toomey, opting to endorse his Democrat opponent Joe Sestak.

Oh, but Hagel doesn’t have a chance of being in Toomey’s cabinet...

***

While the OWH is “officially” against the Mayor Recall -- they’ll still let you know where all of the petition signing spots are.

Some recallers think their numbers are a slam-dunk right now. Though we doubt they would be spending their cash on circulators if they didn’t have to.   Could be close.

***

Keep it going Huskers!