Sunday, October 05, 2008

Palin visit means it's close


Alaska Governor, and Republican Vice-Presidential candidate , Sarah Palin will be in Omaha Sunday night at 6 pm at the Civic Auditorium Music Hall. Don't wait, don't be late.

And we read that the Obama campaign has opened a second Omaha office at 50th and Ames. (Though the word is that no additional paid staff has been added, and we wonder if the space is an in-kind contribution...)

But nonetheless, this means that the national MCain and Obama campaigns think the election is very close.

Why? Well if the McCain camp thought he was in danger of getting blown out, the campaign would not be bothering with Omaha's single vote.

If Obama thought he needed to shore things up, he wouldn't mess with one stinking vote from Nebraska's 2nd District.

But if both camps think that it's worthwhile to spend time and effort to garner one single Electoral Vote, that means, deep down, they think the election could possibly come down to that one Electoral Vote.

As NBC's Chuck Todd keeps hinting, it could be "Omaha. Omaha. Omaha."

***

Some have suggested that Palin's visit indicates that she is coming to the rescue for Mike Johanns or Lee Terry.

Just in case they're wondering, you don't come in in "to rescue" a candidate who is up by 15%, as Johanns is. Heck, Johanns hasn't even run a single negative ad in this race.

And as far as Lee Terry goes, we have heard various (unofficial) polling numbers, though none that put his Democrat opponent within the margin of error. But whether Terry could use a shot-in-the-arm or not, the McCain camp is going to be worried about their own race. They are unlikely to be making side trips just for Lee. (That's the job of theNRCC, not McCain-Palin.)

Oh sure, if they're going to be in the area, they won't mind helping. But they have their own self-interests in mind first.

And Obama? Well, the Dems already have a safe majority in the House. Having Jim Esch on their side wouldn't do much for them. (And again, that's the area for NancyPelosi and her minions, not Obama-Biden.)

How about Scott Kleeb? Well, his chances of winning the entire state of Nebraska area are right up there with Barack Obama's chances of turning Nebraska, where McCain has a 19 point statewide lead, into "Go Big Blue". Unfortunately for him, an Obama office at 50th and Ames isn't likely to turn the tide.

***

Sunday night's gig should be the continuation of the "Free Sarah Palin" tour. Many Republican politicos had been opining that the McCain camp kept Governor Palin in too much of a limited role since the convention. With her break-out in the debate -- against a guy who has spent 35 years debating in the Senate -- it looks like theMcCainiacs have seen the light.

They look to be properly using one of their best campaign advantages. (Look to see if Governor Palin has more local press interviews as well. Some have suggested this for a while -- it risks going off message from her speech, but also can give the higher reward ofadditional free press.)

***

And send in your photos from the event to Leavenworth Street!

(We will credit you and best photo will receive a genuine Leavenworth Street gold coin emailed to you.)

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30 comments:

asecurityguard said...

I stand with you on this one, both sides internals must have this close. Maybe we could get a visit here from Biden or Obama again? Obama would be huge, but i bet he could be more use to himself elsewhere.
Its possible this visit could be to slow or stop the bleeding. Polls for Terry and Johanns have been going southward. I think repubs are starting to circle the wagons nationally now. McCain has abandoned Michigan, repubs arent targeting many dem seats this year. Just like 2 years ago they are on defense and the dems have the power play, 2 years ago Iraq, now its the economy.
Sarah Palin is kept in a limited role because she will screw up without her handlers. Almost everytime she has been alone, interviews with Gibson and Couric, she has come off looking foolish. The fox news people refrained from asking her tough questions to keep her safe. Maybe they figure local media wont ask tough questions, and with the spineless OWH i would understand. Maybe Joe Jordan could get a good one in but it wont be a 1-1 interview.

asecurityguard said...

SS,
Any word on if anyone will do a CD2 specific poll? It would be interesting to see Terry-Esch and Obama-McCain.

Eric said...

I don't think candidates spending time and resources here is necessarily indicative of a close race at the moment. I mean, McCain campaigned in Iowa recently despite no one believing he has a chance there. They're hedging against potential circumstances which may arise over the next month which might make the race more even.

Eric said...

A little over two weeks ago, Nate Silver was projecting a 3.2% chance of a 269-269 tie in the electoral college. The most likely tie scenario was Obama taking Kerry States + IA + NM + NV. Significantly less likely but still possible were Kerry States + IA + NM + WV, Kerry States + IA + NM + CO + VA - MI, Kerry States + IA + NV + CO - NH.

Since then, the polling has been nearly universally positive for Obama. Now, he's projecting a 0.27% chance of a tie which is a less likely scenario than a McCain landslide where he wins 375 or more electoral votes (which he gives a 0.92% chance).

Anonymous said...

The deal is that the only way for McCain to win at this point is for it to be close. I think most people would agree on that looking at recent polls. It appears Obama could win big, but I would expect a tightening of the polls as election day gets closer.

If it's close, then it might be a tie, which is why they're focusing on Maine and now Omaha. (Though still no ads, because of lacking money.)

I think Palin's visit is more of a sign that it is close in the CD2. While there has been no public polling, I would imagine that private polling would show it close or Obama with a slight edge. If that wasn't the case you wouldn't a) waste her time and b) let the MSM have a new story line ("There's such a problem in the McCain campaign that they're even forced to campaign in Nebraska!!" .. us here in Omaha understand.. the MSM doesn't.)

However, I wouldn't be surprised to see Biden/Obama make a stop here. I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see Obama cut an advertisement speaking directly to Omaha citizens to run in the final two weeks of the campaign.

Eric said...

There has been "public" polling recently (as in not an inside campaign poll). Rasmussen just released one, and ARG had one a few weeks ago. The crosstabs on those are available for subscribers.

The thing is, if the race swings back toward McCain to the point where a tie is more likely, then CD2 is going to be pretty squarely in McCain's hands. I can't really see a case where CD2 would be a tipping point.

Anonymous said...

Palin can see Iowa from the Civic Auditorium.
She probably thinks she can "walk the beans" with the best of them.
Palins' act wore thin shortly after her first act.
Get serious GOP and maybe you can make hay in 2010.

Ricky From Omaha

Emily said...

TO: ASG

As a Democrat it is great getting to know Palin. I wish we knew as much about what Obama has done as a "Community Organizer" as we do whith Palin as governor.

It appears Obama's relationship with ACORN should be coming out. Why is Obama not stepping up and being open on his past. We as voters deserve more transparency when it comes to who we are voting for President.

What do you think ASG???

Anonymous said...

Eric,
I've seen statewide polls, but not broken down by CD. Do those exist?

asecurityguard said...

Luckily for you, its in a book. Info is out there, go find it.

my friend said...

Palin said she WANTED to come to Nebraska, that is was not the campaign's decision, but hers. Hmmm. I don't think she's that much of a maverick that, 29 days out, she would just come to Omaha for the hell of it.
Let's face it - when people come to Omaha, they have a reason.

Eric said...

They exist, but sometimes you have to pay to see the break down if they're done by one of the big polling firms (as is the case with Rasmussen). Sometimes a newspaper will commission a poll and will release all the crosstabs, but I don't think there are any of those available. The last poll I know of that released the CD breakdown for Nebraska was SurveyUSA which was back in March before the primaries were over. That one showed Obama winning 45% to 43% in CD2 (and 44-42 in CD1). In addition to being a very old poll, looking at only a third of the data magnifies the margin of error quite a bit, and so the lead isn't statistically significant at any reasonable confidence interval.

Anonymous said...

ASG,

What poll have you seen showing Terry going south? I can see Johanns, heck, south is almost the only direction he could have gone based on his spring poll numbers.

If the Esch Camp says their numbers are within a win, I would challenge them to a show. Prove it, and none of that flim-flam from August about leaking the "within a single digit of winning" statement an out-of-towner like the LJS.

The voters want proof that Esch is anything but an empty suit!

emily said...

ASG ---- it is not in any book that as a community organizer Obama extorted bad lending practices from CitiBank." It is courthouse records.

You can bury your head in the sand about "CHANGE" that Obama promises ----- but anytime I see him answer about what spending he is going to "CUT" he only continues to tell of new projects to "Believe In".

You better hope for the sake of you children, grandchildren and the future of the our country that Obama is not elected.

Anonymous said...

Lee Terry is in deep dog doo doo. From Friday afternoon's Tom Becka show -- where he was nominated the "Butthead of the Week" by several callers, to his very weak welcome at the Palin event yesterday.

Voters are mad and want him out!

Anonymous said...

Anon 10:09,

You must have been recording the response that he got from the welcoming committee ACROSS the street from the Music Hall.

I was in the Hall and his welcome was at least as good as Johanns and the Governor, if not better!

Anyone else care to comment on yesterday's event and how well received Terry was? Feel free to do so, if indeed you were not one of the 4 in the row to the back of me that was quietly yanked out of their seats and shown to the door. Or perhaps you were seated in the row immediately in front of the Press thinking you could get your nastiness on camera? Did you enjoy your trip to the sidewalk?

All in all, for less than 24 hours notice, Omaha did a phenominal job of filling the Music Hall and the overflow room to capacity and, sadly, some people were even turned away. Perhaps if dumbasses 1-8 wouldn't have occupied seats they didn't deserve, then more decent Omahans could have gotten in to decide for themselves if Governor Palin is wothy of their vote.

How many days notice did it take to fill the Obama Rally several months ago. Remember the one that you had to go to the Slowdown for the chance to get tickets to? Talk about protecting the candidate. How many events are Biden/Obama actually letting the general public into? What are they afraid of? Why do you need a ticket to see them?

Anonymous said...

Even 1110 KFAB this morning called Terry's welcome at the event yesterday "tepid."

Working on those resumes yet?

Anonymous said...

Really. Those of you who are trying to make up this great fantasy of an Obama win in CD2, you are dreaming.

We've heard these great stories of huge voter registration drives and getting all of these new voters to vote early by absentee. well, it hasn't panned out. As a matter of fact, any dem gains in the early voting over two years ago have been marginal at best.

The GOP base IS fired up in CD2. It took roughly 7 working hours over a Saturday night and Sunday morning to do the logistics and turn out an overflow crowd for the Palin event. Dems bragged about filling the auditorium and how impressive it was. They had four complete days after the logistics had already been laid out.

Two hundred volunteers showed up at the NEGOP HQ at 10 AM on a Sunday morning and word of this effort did not go out until after 9 PM the night before. Well over 1000 new volunteer names were gathered at the event itself.

Given four days, Palin could've filled Memorial Stadium.

It'll be interesting to see what happens with the new Obama office. It looks to me like they went ahead just so it didn't look like they were moving out.

Obama's staff will be gone by the end of this week. Next week at the latest.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for your insight Ink. It'll be interesting to see if you're right.

So, when are you heading back to Connecticut? Right after Lee's "victory" party?

Anonymous said...

Wouldn't be surprised if she couldn't fill the stadium. 83,000plus were there last Saturday night to witness a blowout. She is a bigger loser than the Huskers were that night. The only difference is, I have hope for the Huskers.

She has her scoop out and is pitching up the Rev Wright. This, coming from a woman who had Muthee perform an exorcism on her in front of her church. What's next, shrunken heads or voodoo dolls?

Maybe there is still one lttle witch left in her trying to communicate with us by blinking messages in Morse code.

Anonymous said...

Nice to see the GOP bragging about their poor pre-planning for an 'event' in relation to still managing to get a crowd to see "Caribou Barbie" (TM "Now with ATTACK Mode!"). She seems to be the type of leader that people might follow out of curiosity but as for leadership skills ... not so much.

"emily", darling, I fear you maybe weren't ever a Democrat and if you were I'm glad you've come to your senses and converted. However, despite what you appear to think when a member of Congress has an "R" after their name in a story it isn't supposed to stand for racist, maybe yours does but theirs do not (generally -- as always ymmv).

macdaddy said...

On KETV website the Dems reported 18,000 new registrations and Dem voter registration lags Repubs by less than 2000. Repubs have their work cut out for them. I suggest that they plan an all-day musical event near Creighton to distract the youth from voting.

Don Kuhns said...

The call lasted less than 5 minutes. Once Bush heard that Terry seemed to be on board, he asked how the Huskers were doing.

They also talked about presidential politics.

"I said, 'You know, Obama's giving us the love and McCain isn't,'" Terry said, referring to Barack Obama staffing a campaign office in Omaha. "I said, 'You should tell Mr. McCain that he needs to recognize that we exist out here.'

"He said he'd be glad to tell (John McCain) that, that they need to come out and show us the love," Terry said.


Translation: Heeeelp Meeeee!

One Out In The Third said...

Mac...

I think the Goodyear Blimp is coming to Omaha on November 4th.

Uncle Wiggily said...

Hmmm ... interesting dearth of comments, either pro or con, regarding Lee Terry's recent vote for the bailout - after voting "No" the first time. Can't be good for his re-election chances.

Living out here in the weeds as I do, my ox is neither gorer or goree in this feces fight, but here's a little friendly and well-intentioned advice for you CD2-ers.

You got two opposing candidates, either of which pretty much no one can stand, you got a relatively small congressional district (i.e., easily covered), and you got thirty days. Can you say WRITE-IN campaign? Pick some one who doesn't make everyone throw up, scrape up a few thousand bucks, and ... git 'er done!

Just a thought.

ttg said...

Lee Terry said he voted for the bail out because he was afraid to look an unemployed guy in the eye.

Since when does Lee Terry owe anyone a job? Or a house?

How stupid can Americans become?

Do we really think Hitler, Mao and other socialists, right and left, were for big government because they had bad intentions? They all justified "helping" people be better, safer, happier than human beings are on thier own. Like Terry, they wanted government to eliminate the risk of life. But risk is freedom.

No wonder the Dow fell even more. Cowering Conservatives like Terry agreed with the brainless social-liberals in Washington to help bad businesses and stupid investors keep on being bad and stupid.

You don't cure cancer by subdizing the cancer.

Anonymous said...

I find it humorous that all these Terry Haters aren't also Warren Haters. You would think that if what Terry did by voting for a Bill that was less expensive due to implementation of accounting changes, but turned into a shithole because of the Senate additions, then you would all be ready to throw Nellie out in 4 years (he helped negotiate the shithole of the Senate). Anyone willing to commit to that by name and in public? How about demanding that Warren Buffet be removed from his position at BH? He publicly favored the Bill.

The reality is that we live in an instant gratification society. Look at all the people that are up to their eyeballs in credit card debt. They didn't get there by buying groceries for their kids or making an emergency repair to their car or home. They, and we, got where we are today by having no restraint, giving in to the other side out of necessity to get mandatory spending funded, and being unwilling to say no to our kids, both real and metaphorically.

The turn around is not going to happen over night and it will be well into next year before people will see their portfolios recovering. The fact is that stocks were never intended to be a quick money maker-that's what Vegas is for, and that mindset is part of what got us in the position we are in today! If all the greedy gamblers would get off of Wall Street, the stocks would stop getting depressed and the corporations, both big and small, would have a bottom line they could rely on for more than 1/2 a day.

People, we did this to ourselves. Now it is time to show restraint and patience to allow our economy a chance to recover from the near fatal heart attack it just suffered.

It is never good to redraw a map in the middle of the desert. It is not time for an upside down change to satisfy a bunch of impatient children. It is time for patience and caution.

So while you are pisssed off when you go to vote, consider where the alternative will take us. Know your candidates, not just their talking points. Look at their track record on issues of importance to you. Make them look you in the eye, don't just rely on position papers. See if you can believe what they tell you and judge for your self if they can go do what they say or if they are just saying what you want to hear and will tell another group something else as soon as you turn your back?

Will you be able to trust your candidate to do what is best, even if it is not what is easiest?

I think trust and faith is what we need more than "Hope and Change".

Anonymous said...

Hey, is the Esch/Terry debate going to be televised tonight?

hsinn said...

ttg,
are you independently wealthy? do you not need your employer to have a line of credit to employ you? or, if you're self employed, do you not need a line of credit to conduct your business??

i take no issue with you opining on big gov't vs. small gov't, but you clearly don't understand the crisis, or the bill that was passed, or what it would mean if the credit markets seized up. if you did understand these things, you would know that something had to be done and you would know that the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act is not a silver bullet as far as the stock market is concerned, but WAS necessary to rescue the credit markets.

macdaddy said...

I understand people are upset with Terry for voting for the bailout, but you have to remember that letting Esch getting elected will ensure that the people responsible for the problem to begin with, the Democrats, will stay in a position to dictate how the money is spent. Remember that they already wanted to give 20% of the proceeds to ACORN, which has worked mightily as well to create this problem. Should Obama get elected President, you now have a Treasury Secretary who has carte blanche to spend the money anyway he wants with oversight by the crooks in Congress. Our (the NE-2) contribution to the fight is to re-elect Terry. Be mad at Terry all you want. Flood his office with phone calls and emails. But at the end of the day, to not vote for him is cutting off your nose to spite your face. Do not think for one nanosecond that Esch can do anything but make the situation worse.