In our final race of the day, the Leavenworth Street Odds Makers look a the Democratic Senate Primary.
(See the GOP Senate Primary here.)
(And the Dem 2nd District Primary here.)
Remember way back when, when all the talk was about Bob Kerrey getting in the Senate race? He was buying a house in Dundee, and picking out kindergartens, strolling the Old Market.
And now this race is Tony Raimondo and Jim Esch pumping each other. Weird year. Anywho...
Tony Raimondo has made this a race. Who'd a thunk that Democrat poster-boy Scott Kleeb could get his Stetson handed to him in the ad war that sprang up in this short primary season?
Let us back up. We all know that Raimondo figured out, like Hal Daub and Jon Bruning before him, that he couldn't beat Mike Johanns in a primary. But he could always be a Ben Nelson Democrat, right?
But wait, when you hear hoof-beats you shouldn't look for zebras, so who is that? True Democrat Scott Kleeb! And the primary was over, right?
Scott sure didn't think so. He came right out of the chute knocking Raimondo for his former Republican-ness. And then followed that up with how he'd be super bi-partisan. Wha-huh?
And then the ad-war started. And in a race where the candidates are very similar, something has had to break, and it's been Tony's drumbeat of business experience. (Oh, in case you didn't hear, Behlen is a company in Nebraska that makes stuff.)
In the mean time, Kleeb's campaign has been pure feely-goodness -- not unlike what catapulted Obama to where he is. But since Nebraskans still crave a little meat with their dessert, Kleeb's fluff has been elbowed out by Tony's offers of bidness experience.
Buuuuut. Will that be enough for Raimondo? Because while he would very likely be a better general election opponent for Mike Johanns, he still has to make it out of the DEMOCRAT primary. And last we checked, it wasDems voting there. The same Dems who gave Kleeb their votes two years ago in the Third.
Oh, and don't forget GOTV. Tony is skipping it. Kleeb is banking on it.
And then, we gotta hand it to KMTV reporter Joe Jordan for his standard question to Raimondo -- will he support Kleeb if Kleeb wins. And Tony says...he'll think about it.
He'll THINK ABOUT IT??? The guy has been a Dem for about 15 minutes, is trying to get Dems' support, and he'll only THINK about supporting the party's Senate nominee???
Nice job there Tony. But hey, at least you got Jim Esch's support...
Raimondo has made this race close and we give him a shot at pulling it off. But like when Tom Osborne fell to the Republican stylings of Dave Heineman, we feel that Raimondo can't out Democrat a Democrat. And Kleeb, if nothing else, is a Democrat.
So our Odds on the each candidate pulling it out tonight look like this:
Kleeb: 1 to 2 (bet $2 to win $1)
Raimondo: 3 to 1
Over/Under: Kleeb 54%
Comment it up pardners!
Posts
32 comments:
"pumping each other"? just out of curiosity, is that a Fletch reference? if so, well done. i hate tommy lasorda.
"Oh, and don't forget GOTV. Tony is skipping it. Kleeb is banking on it."
Sweeper, can you tell us more about this little throw-away comment?
Sweeper:
Just thot you'd like to know ... local radio out here in the Third KGFW)is quoting your odds on the House and Senate races ... mostly they agree with you but, like me, they think that Flynn is going to do better (especially in the 3rd) than you do.
BTW ... I also disagree with your Kleeb pick, but I've been wrong before.
Regards
Anony at 10:24:
We've attached OWH links for those points.
UW:
Well be interested in the Flynn numbers. If Raimondo pulls it out, those could, in theory, be votes he could go for. But there's no way they would become Kleeb voters.
We've heard others picking Tony as well. It's not a crazy bet to place.
SS, you have a good point about Tony's "drumbeat". It should beat loudest for infrequent voters.
I'd normally be with you on the Kleeb over Raimondo guess. But if turnout is unusually high, and I think it will be, that extra bunch of voters will be more effected by Tony's drum. Him having been a Republican hurts him less among infrequents. Sort of like Mike having been a Democrat.
I call it TONY BY TWO.
CF:
I like the analysis (and your wager is noted). But why would turnout be high? The Dems have already "voted" for Prez, and there are no other races of real interest. I just don't know why the infrequents will make the effort.
I'm all ears to any reasoning. And that's why we called it close.
And readers, please send in your anecdotal polling evidence. Busy or light where YOU voted. (And DID you vote?)
Fearless prediction: the victor is Domo Arigato Mr. Raimondo. Scott Kleeb becomes next spokesperson for Proactiv.
I'll put $50 on Kleeb and the over.
Anony at 12:38,
We have noted your posted wagers, but next time please give yourself a name other than "Anonymous". You're going to have a hard time collecting (or bragging)...
Sweeper,
I'm betting you a six pack of your favorite beer that it'll be Kleeb by a wide margin. I'f he gets less than 60% you're drinking on me. I'll thank you in advance for my six pack of Sam Adams. But of course I have to ask . . . how will I collect my winnings?
BTO,
"Wager" (note for law-enforcement surveillance: not an actual wager) accepted.
My favorite beer is Vielle Bon Secours.
Should I lose, I will pick up the Sam's. We can meet at the Bierdrome at a pre-arranged time.
-SS
2 at this house in the 2nd and we were 7 and 8 at a very lonely Hampton Inn this morning.
I have to admit, I felt a little naughty going to a hotel in my hometown during the day. I much preferred voting at the Church!
Oh, I don't gamble so I'll just tell you who will win:
Mike Johanns, Lee Terry, Beau McCoy, Carol Russell, Tim Cavanaugh-off the top of my head.
As for the Dems, I can't call a single one of them a winner, sorry.
We're getting more info that turnout has been VERY low. If you find differently after work, please let us know.
It's our feeling this bodes well for Kleeb.
Sweeper,
Since "Vielle Bon Secours" is your favorite beer, you must have several cases of it on hand. You wouldn't mind swapping me a six of empties for your winnings (in the unlikely event you'd win) would you? As a frugal Scot, on my mother's side, I'd have to make sure I was only giving you the quality stuff so I'd have to pass it through my kidneys to filter out all the impurities those French put in there.
BTO,
Since this can only be gotten at the Bierdrome in London, I unfortunately don't have any on hand. We'll have to meet there. All are invited.
So what was the crowd like at your polling place?
I'd take Kleeb, and the over.
I'm a voter in the 2nd district who votes at a church. I went early afternoon -- and no one else was around. In fact, the volunteers seemed ecstatic to see me and the woman who had my name on a list actually squealed because she had something to do. I think this bodes well for Kleeb also. My spouse had the same experience -- same place, just later in the afternoon.
Pathetic turnout in our ward...as of 530 pm only 179 had voted. Almost as bad as the Nebraska ca-ca-us.
Where do I get in line for BTO's funded beer-fest? We could meet on neutral ground...I will provide the ribs. 60 percent is a staggering number. I think it will be close with Raimondo having the edge since he is the local "talent."
I cowered at the last minute and voted for Flynn...I figure I have a better chance if I vote for a person with no experience. If he screws up coming out of the gate it may actually benefit me. (Of course this axiom does not apply to Kleb...In the name of efficiency I dropped one of the e's since it is silent.)
Anybody want to host the State Fair? Seems a vast majority in GI...aside from the City Council and Chamber of Commerce...would rather someone else be saddled with the tax burden and debt. Of course the majority of restauranteers have no problem with saddling locals with an additional 1.5 to 2 percent sales tax...but then again the money isn't coming out of their pockets is it? I understand there is a pretty good steakhouse up the road in Chapman.
Hey, I'm here in the 2nd district and I voted for Flynn too -- and Steve Laird. My spouse wrote in Hal Daub's name for Senate and voted for Steve Laird too! Throw the bums out!
Low turnout in Holdrege, Sweeper. There really wasn't a lot to get them excited about now was there? Maybe we should have offered free beer! For that they'd have come even if all we were serving was Milwaukee's Finest in the can.
I think 1/3's ribfest should be at the Morgan Ranch near Burwell. I hear their Wagyu and Kobe Beef is mighty tasty. You could contact Scott Kleeb about ordering some. Some of the finest steak's I've ever had in this state were at The Speakeasy, just down the Pollyline from Holdrege towards Wilcox in Sacramento. It's a bit out of the way, but well worth the trip.
I've heard the grumblings from G.I. It's too bad the costs of transferring the State Fair further west couldn't be spread out a bit more. The benefits will come to the region, not just one city. The best thing is that G.I. offers a location that is more centrally located for those kids that have had to haul their cows, goats, and pigs so far before. With the cost of gas still rising, it will save a lot of farm families a lot of money.
BTO...
We probably sat near each other at the Speakeasy and didn't even know it.
A great place for groceries and a cool refreshing beverage. Getting there kind of follows the Deliverance theme. The road narrows and possums cross frequently. You might not be at the end of the universe...but you can see it from there.
Well Sweeper, it's a good thing for you that my tastes are a lot more proletarian than yours. The Samuel Adams Cream Stout will slake my thirst just fine. Now how do I go about collecting my bet? Shall we take One in the Third up on the ribs offer? I could go for TP's famous Prime Rib at the Speakeasy in Sacramento. It'll have to be a Friday or Saturday night. You've got my email - let me know.
Oh, and I forgot. I'm a generous sort. I'll even share my beers with you and 1/3.
I am good to my word and will pay up at the aforementioned London pub.
We can pick a time later.
S'matter Sweep? Sore loser? I'll bet 1/3 pays up on the ribs bet.
Sore loser? I just said I'd pay up at the pub I mentioned earlier. What's the problem?
The loser doesn't get to pick the terms, Sweeper. I won, I set the terms.
You are lucky that I'm a generous Liberal Democrat and not inclined to imposing any Draconian hoops for you to jump through. I understand that you are embarrassed about your loss and fear that I would reveal your true identity to the world. Given my record of demanding openness and accountability within my own party, I can see where that might be your concern.
Tell you what. Deliver my winnings to Mike Johanns and let him drop them off for you the next time he's down my way. I'm sure he'd keep your secret safe.
BTO,
You (proud) Liberal you. Terms are set by BOTH parties, PRIOR to the agreement. As I noted going in, I would pay up at the specifically noted pub.
And who says I'm embarrassed? You make your best guess in these races and you live with your pick. No shame in that. I chuckle at all the Wednesday morning pundits who just KNEW it wouldn't be close (where were they Tuesday?).
Anywho, if I can figure out a way to get you the chosen brew, at your locale of choice, I will.
Until then, I'll be more than happy to meet at the Bierdrome.
SS
Tell ya what. Just cover the cost at CHEEX Bar (however you want) in Holdrege and I'll drink to your health there.
BTO...
I bet Raimondo felt like a fool this morning...pouring all that moolah into his campaign fund and getting smoked. Ol' Earmark has a dilemma on his hands now.
Sounds like SS isn't ready to go the extra mile. What's he gonna do once the State Fair moves to GI. Or as our Mayor and City Council call it...The Let 'em Eat Cake City."
C'mon SS...go west young man...sample life out here along the dry-line. The rib offer stays open...and it's not like you have anything to do til November. Kleb better get to working...considering Johanns had twice the number show up to vote for him. What should we call it? "Duel at the Milquetoast Corral?" Both he an Kleb are about as exciting as a bar of soap.
Johanns didn't wait very long to incite the homophobes did he? We may find it hard to believe now...but the dirt will start flying real soon. The Dust Bowl will pale in comparison.
Two things SS...
Your analysis was uultimately proven grossly wrong... Like anyone else could have already forseen. Tony R. got Hammered.
AND are you going to actually pay up on the bet you lost to BTO?
Or are you going to cry and make excuses?
Anony,
FYI, it's just you and me reading this now. No one else goes bakc to old posts.
So...
1) We picked Kleeb to win, as he would out-Democrat TR. And he did.
(I guess I must have missed your pick...)
2) BTO and I have discussed matters. Mind your own bidness.
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