With Chuck Hagel’s cryptic message that he’s announcing…
something on Monday, let’s take a look at the
Leavenworth Street Odds on what he’ll announce:
That he’s retiring from the Senate and NOT running for President:
1000 to 1
That he’s running for re-election to the Senate, and NOT running for President:
500 to 1
That he’s running for President, not bothering with an exploratory committee, and is in it to win it:
30 to 1
That’s he’s forming an exploratory committee for President, but that he’s running full bore and not running for re-election to the Senate (essentially like what Giuliani and McCain did):
5 to 1
That he’s forming some sort of exploratory committee, and leaving his options open until the fall to decide if he’ll continue a Presidential campaign, run instead for re-election to the Senate or just retire all together:
1 to 1
The last one is the CW out there now and seems the most likely. We can’t imagine that with the way his poll numbers are running now, that he’d risk being a lame-duck in the Senate in order to pursue what could be a Quixotic Presidential run. Instead he keeps his Senate prestige, stays on Meet the Press, gets to rub elbows with the other candidates and give his views on the issues of the day, and if it doesn’t work out, he can decide later.
We’d point out that UNO isn’t exactly the setting that one ordinarily associates with a Presidential announcement – but if the weather is nice (it’s supposed to be 65 degrees on Monday!) a possible outdoor setting could work.
It will also be interesting to see what other GOPers are there. Heineman? Bruning? Terry or Fort? Daub? Ricketts?
It should make for an interesting morning.
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13 comments:
UNO may not be "Presidential" but it is his alma mater. If he is going to announce in Nebraska where is would he? The Kearney arch? Carhenge? The home he lives in in Virginia?
As a UNO student, my bet is that there will be less than 3 actual UNO students inside the William H. Thompson Alumni Center Monday morning.
Hell, I'd put it at fewer than that, considering that we're on break Monday. I think I've set foot in the Thompson Alumni Center once in about two years.
ehfar...
It's going to be a historical moment. You should be front row center. I predict there will be a crowd...media types bumping into each other. Maybe the Sweeper will get an exclusive??? I'd be there but I will be entertaining folks from Texas.
dang right ricketts will be there. he is gonna be funding the Hagel presidential campaign.
Go Chuck Go!
I'm with StreetSweeper's assessment of the odds. Hagel announces his exploratory committee but refuses to answer any question about not seeking a third Senate term. He will know well before Labor Day if his campaign can raise $100 million plus it would take to be successful. He will drop out of the presidential race this Fall and announce he's running for a third Senate term. It's a lock.
Hagel should save himself the embarrassment...This weeks USA Today/Gallup Poll shows him losing the 1 percent he has held during previous weeks. Chuck has barely been a 2 percenter in the majority of polls I've read. I guess he is counting on RoboCalls to lift him up.
UNO is on break? Way to reach out to young voters Chuck. When do the YD's come to Omaha? Maybe they can bump the date up and add Chuck's announcement to the TTTTSIO.
Sweeper:
Another day, another Omaha World-Herald premature ejaculation over the potential Hagel candidacy.
How's this for the paper's latest journalistic boner: My morning print edition today contains the Jake Thompson/Robynn Tysver story "Hagel To Announce '08 Plans Monday" on Page 5A.
The morning edition prints the SAME STORY AGAIN on Page 12, entitled, "Hagel Will Announce Plans For '08 Monday!"
I smell an afternoon "Extra!" on Monday.
Wake up, people!
What is this "print edition" of which you speak?
Indeed, Sweeper, indeed.
The "print edition" is the stuff manufactured at the new, high-tech canary cage-liner factory on Capitol Ave.
Back to Hagel for a moment, I stick to my prediction that Hagel will be the GOP vice presidential nominee. His "conservative credentials" will provide the necessary balance to whichever RINO the Republicans sacrifice their highly-vaunted "core principles" for.
As to these top of the ticket Republicrats (Giuliani; Romney), this Democrat prays that Rudy gets the nomination. The resulting fracture in the GOP will take at least ten years to repair, and potentially would leave room for some kind of third party incursion (a Gingrich-led "Merkin Party" or a more balanced "American Unity Party."
I know, I know, you don't need to remind me that third parties have not fared well in modern American politics. However, I believe the conditions are right for a third party to make an impact (no, not the Green Party or any of the fringe groups).
Wake up, people!
Remind me again - why do I give a frazzle-eyed fooey about anything Hagel has to say??
I think George Costanza put it best: "Because it's on TV."
The question is, why did the Nebraska Dems send a dim bulb like Matt Connealy to attack Chuck Hagel on the day Hagel announced his upcoming announcement? (KTPM ran a clip Connealy stammering last evening.) Clearly, Ben Nelson calls the shots for state party's shots -- but why do the NE Dems care about Hagel, especially if he's creating an open-seat race?
Regarding Hagel, I’m one of the few Nebraskans that give him a chance at the White House, simply based on the unpopularity of the Iraq war. (Yes, real conservatives opposed the war from the start.)
On the blue side of the ticket, Hillary can’t overcome her negatives; Obama is the flavor of the week; and sawed-off, slimy Edwards is a transparent trial lawyer entrenched in class warfare.
In the elephant's camp, tree-hugging, ethanol-hating McCain could never win a GOP primary, especially at 70 years old; Romney has charisma, but is hindered by the 'Mormon factor'; and Guiliani, who has a religious hurdle of his own, stands for nothing.
If there was ever a year when a conservative, anti-interventionalist Nebraskan had a shot, it’s 2008 -- albeit a snowball still might have a better chance in Hades.
Monday! I'm all atwitter!
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