We recently received results for a poll taken in the Nebraska 2nd Congressional District.
The poll asked about the race between incumbent Republican Congressman Lee Terry and challenger, Democrat state Senator Tom White.
The autodial poll asked 670 likely voters the following:
If the election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote?
The results:
Lee Terry............56%
Tom White..........39%
Other/uk ..................5%
We don't have any cross-tabs or other info on the methodology. If that means to you this is a worthless poll to you, so be it. We're just passing along the info we were presented. At the moment we're also not at liberty to say who took this poll. If that changes we will update.
As far as the results go, we're not all that surprised.
Considering Terry garnered 52% a year ago, he shouldn't sneeze at 56%.
Considering many may have no idea who White is, he should be happy enough to start at 39%.
The autodial poll asked 670 likely voters the following:
If the election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote?
The results:
Lee Terry............56%
Tom White..........39%
Other/uk ..................5%
We don't have any cross-tabs or other info on the methodology. If that means to you this is a worthless poll to you, so be it. We're just passing along the info we were presented. At the moment we're also not at liberty to say who took this poll. If that changes we will update.
As far as the results go, we're not all that surprised.
Considering Terry garnered 52% a year ago, he shouldn't sneeze at 56%.
Considering many may have no idea who White is, he should be happy enough to start at 39%.
Have at it.
Posts
35 comments:
Who ran the poll and paid for it? No info on Terry's primary challenge?
Kris Pierce (known to some in the online community as J. Williams) announced this morning he was running for Secretary of State.
Sweeper, you should track down the great video footage from KETV or Omaha.com of Pierce dancing his butt off on stage election night.
I have a poll that has 55% Terry / 45% Sak in the primary.
It's at least as scientific as the poll sweeper posted.
Forward me the info on your poll, and we'll take a look.
We'll have more info on the Pierce campaign later today.
SS
If Lee Terry's primary opponent came within 10% in a poll than I'm the Queen of Sheeba.
there is a difference between robo calling a certain percentage of voters from both parties and having your friends call phone numbers from the phone book.
Until we see a report for the ne2 primary challenger, we have to assume he has not bought a frequent voter list and we don't know who in kinded him one-this is why the FEC reports are so important-they attempt to keep everyone honest.
Is there any legitimate reason to think White will do better than Esch? And factor in tht Obama won't be on the ground here...
First of all, White is not a hipster doofus. He actually has a job. How well people think he's doing his job is another question, but he does have one and he has some electoral experience. Esch just had a D after his name.
We haven't even begun to discuss the disgrace White has been in representing his own legislative district.
We don't need part-time employees in Congress. It will be interesting to see who White hand picks to run for his old district.
Too bad, cause White would be on track to lose re-election outright.
I dont buy the results for one reason, washington wouldnt put him on their endangered list if he had that big of a lead. And who took this poll, hahaha. misleading information.
12:55
He is on the endanged list because Obama won the district on 2008.
My info shows Obama tracking severely below 40 % would vote again if Obama were on the ballot.
There will be no Obama bump to help White. Not to mention all of those Steve Brown show liberal tapes where White is completely opposite of the districts position.
Good nite now.
NNN's Twitter feed shows 46-40 Terry. Granted "Vile Kyle" may not be an objective source, but neither is StreetSweeper. Unless they are from an objective source, polls are just campaign spin.
I'm not the source kids. Info was passed on to me.
And I wouldn't have posted it if I didn't trust who sent it.
And I noted that it is an autodial poll, with no cross-tabs -- i.e., no party breakdown to compare.
But hey, believe who or whatever you want to believe...
SS
another poll
Terry 46%
White 35.7%
but if White gets his name recognition up, and Terry's popularity has already reached its peak, this race is a lot closer.
In 2008, Jordan McGrain's firm circulated a robo-poll on the death penalty showing overwhelming support statewide. The crosstabs, though, had almost 50% of respondents coming from the 3rd CD (maybe people out there are more likely to answer the phone, more likely to take polls, who knows - but they're undoubtedly more conservative).
This sounds like a similar situation.
Without knowing the source of this poll, who did it, questions asked, methodology, etc, this poll is pretty much worthless.
However, lets look at history. In October 2008, SS posted a poll saying that Terry had 49%, Esch 39%. The final result was 52/48. So If that poll at the time was right, Esch, who ran a mediocre campaign, gained 9 percentage points.
Tom White has just started to do fundraising the last few months, but has not gone out and actually done full campaigning. And he has a full year yet to introduce himself. I'd say Lee Terry's days are numbered and he should be preparing his resume to look for new work.
Hey, thanks for the shout-out!
And the reason our death penalty survey was weighted toward the CD3 is because that's where approximately 45% of the vote comes from in a statewide race. Our results skewed higher, but the reasoning was sound.
The problem with this is that we cant verify if its a reputable source. Polls from campaigns and political parties need to be taken with a grain (or pound) of salt. If this was from a reputable org why don't they want the poll to be made public?
And i think 56% is about the max that Terry can ever get again.
I heard it again and confirmed it with my sources, the other poll has it
Terry 46
White 35
inside information
6:46--the poll was of likely D voters in NE2.
Here's another poll...
Rasmussen's generic congressional ballot (likely voters):
Repub 42%
Dem 37%
Wonder what it will be when unemployment hits 10% nationally.
And 56% beats your guy in every election.
That is a great post. Very informative. Its a poll that we dont know where it coming from and it seems that the person who posted it might be in highschool. So yes, this post is worthless.
I have a poll that puts white at 62and Terry at 48. Not sure where it came from and I have no clue how many people were a part of it but it seems to have the same relevance of this post.
Geez. Here's the deal kids:
1) I KNOW where this poll came from, and if I could get someone to OK me saying it, I would.
2) I've given the relevant details of the type of poll and the question asked.
Other have said, "Phone poll w/o crosstabs is not trust-worthy" -- which I could easily argue is correct.
However, the dismissal of it simply b/c you don't know the name of the person or group who commissioned it is not persuasive.
Our position here on L. St. is "More info = good". If you don't like the info, don't eat it.
But enough of putting the messenger before the firing squad. You're starting to make my feelings hurt.
(Nyuk nyuk nyuk...)
How would this issue poll?
HHS just issued a report saying the Dem health care reform will ADD 2.1% to heath care spending ABOVE and BEYOND current law.
So much for bending the curve.
White is foolish to have endorsed the plan.
The Dems have said we have to enact 'reforms' to get costs under control.
But their own HHS study says the Dem plan ADDS costs above what would happen if you keep things the way they are.
HHS has just stuck a knife into the rationale for the plans.
Except, 62 plus 48 does not add up to 100 and, last I checked, even shyster democrat pollsters believe the numbers need to total 100, not 110.
Tom White is running a lackluster and boring campaign to change anyone's opinion. It starts now, not after the primary. Why would I take a look at this guy if he doesn't have the fire in his own belly and just has his team to tell him when to jump? It's the same old tired stuff and that is not to say Lee Terry is a shot of
anything more than the same old stuff. No wonder they have to raise so much money....much of it is wasted on getting the attention the lazy way by TV ads ad nauseum.
What do these guys stand for and what are there beliefs? It seems Lee Terry always finds himself in the halls of KFAB always ready for free publicity. Where's Tom? Sitting the dance out waiting for permission from this tired team?
If you want to lead then start when you are running. Lee manages to command the podium, but what is worse is that his opponents allow it like beaten wimps.
Come on guys give the voters a great campaign to be engaged.
I meant to say "their beliefs" not there beliefs which may not make any difference considering.
The $250 billion question . . .
Harry Reid and the Dems were blocked from trying to pass a 'fix' on Medicare physician fees (that would stop a 20% cut).
Question: Democrats, how would you pay for this $250 billion in new spending?
Specifics, please.
Is White going to boycott the Special Session? I read he doesn't want to go to Lincoln and make adjustments to the budget.
Is he scared?
Adjustments? Is that what we are calling them these days? Call them cuts, be a man about it.
And if White won't go do the hard work of the cuts, then he is just a p***y.
Now, if the only reason he doesn't want to go is because it will cut into his personal time, or he can't afford the time away from his Law Office, well that is another story. Doesn't he know that he is going to get a per diem? That should more than take care of paying someone to handle his cases for him.
Or is it just the drive to Lincoln he can't take? Hmm, I wonder how he will make weekly roundtrips and being gone all week long?
I think tom White is not committed enough to run for Congress. Maybe he is in over his head?
Anonymous 7:19--I don't know the answers there. But I know this: White told Joe Jordan the Gov. should just go ahead and make $50 mil in cuts. Problem is, that's unconstitutional.
Then White said address it next session. The problem there is you lose all savings for the current FY if you ignore the problem.
If Dems like White want to fix this with tax increases, then they should have the intellectual honesty to just say so.
One more poll...
SurveyUSA poll of NJ gov's race:
Christie 41
Corzine 39
VA continues to show large McDonnell lead.
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