Monday, May 11, 2009

Odds and Evens

Per tradition here on Leavenworth Street, we give you our odds for the candidates in tomorrow's Omaha Mayor race and competitive City Council elections.

As required by State Blogging Law, we state that these odds are for recreational purposes only and specifically may not be walked across the Bob Kerrey Loitering Bridge and slammed down before a riverboat book maker, while screaming, "Gimme the Over!"

Without further ado...

Mayor's Race

While Jim Suttle had shown some cockiness regarding this race, our feeling is that the Daub camp has worked hard to get their hard-cores to turn out.  Furthermore, Suttle's ambivalence to giving any details about his plans as Mayor has soured many toward him.

We believe the Undecideds will side with the Devil They Know, as it were, but nonetheless believe it will be a relatively close race.

Both sides will be working hard until the last bell. But who will work harder?

Hal Daub - 1:4
Jim Suttle - 2:1
Over/Under Daub - 52%


City Council

District 2

Ben Gray won the Primary by six votes. But then just 3,900 people voted. What will happen if more turn out? We think the Ernie Chambers backed Frank brown will pull it out. Are there any big reasons for voters to kick Brown out of office? Anything glaring?

Anyway, we started with Gray's name up. Then switched to Brown. Back to Gray. Then landed on Brown. Really, it's essentially what happens with Ben Nelson's hair stylist...

Frank Brown - Even
Ben Gray - 2:1
Over/Under Brown - 51%


District 3

Again, we're all over the board on this one.

We're going back and forth on Maxwell. With larger turnout, he has the name ID. He lost his County Board race, but that was to Marc Kraft, who also had good name ID. 

Then again Jerram has had plenty of money to get his name out. And for what it's worth, Jerram would have gotten NRL's pro-Life endorsement with Maxwell, but they focused on Chip's past as being uber-pro-life. And Jerram is Catholic too (with the whole Cathedral vs. Holy Cross dynamic).

But we're leaning Maxwell now, mainly based on name ID. Maxwell has also sent out a "comparative" mailing, so he's not sitting back -- having learned from his last race.

Of course the thing that gives us pause here is that it's a majority Dem district, and the Democrats prevailed over the Republicans in the Primary 54%-46%.

So could this go either way? Sure. But ya gotta put the odds somewhere...

Chip Maxwell - Even
Chris Jerram - 3:2
Over/under Maxwell 52%


District 5

Jean Stothert beat Jon Blumenthal 65% - 35% in the Primary. Both sides have worked hard, but we see no real reason why these numbers change much.

Jean Stothert - 1:20
Jon Blumenthal - 40:1
Over/Under Stothert 60%


District 6

Walt Peffer has been charging hard with TV and mail to knock Franklin Thompson. But Peffer's charges against Thompson are fairly difficult to nail on one person. 

We don't see them ringing true, and don't see him flipping this race much from the 56% - 44% of the Primary.

Franklin Thompson - 1:2
Walt Peffer - 4:1
Over/Under Thompson 53%


What say you, Commenters?
(You can't gloat later unless you post a prediction of your own, under a name or sobriquet.)


Note sure where to vote?


Joorgunsin said...

I am so worried Suttle will win. Your predictions seem perfect.

3rd floor watcher said...

Jim Suttle is an idiot. So how many idiots will vote tomorrow? That will decide the race.

Jeff Jensen said...

3rd floor watcher said...

Jim Suttle is an idiot. So how many idiots will vote tomorrow? That will decide the race.
You are so right! By the way, why is Jim Suttle against disco so much?

Not the Mailman said...

Yeah, if people don't agree with me and vote for Daub then they are idiots! Just stupid socialist, communist, liberal jerks who hate America and puppies!

Come on people, we don't need to be like that.

If Daub loses it's because he wasn't the better candidate. Same with Suttle. Not because anyone was fooled or was too stupid or anything like that.

Anonymous said...

Suttle doesn't have the money that Fahey had in 2001. Furthermore, he doesn't have the backing of the "Catholic Mafia" in Omaha.

Increased Dem registrations were largely due to the fact that we held a caucus in the state last year, and Obamamania pulled in folks who wouldn't have voted otherwise. Don't expect the same enthusiasm for Jim Suttle.

Mike Fahey claimed to have returned "civility" to City Hall. The two significant issues he worked on -- pensions and the baseball stadium -- were handled poorly.

Freezing police wages in exchange for a better pension plan was misguided on his part. He had no desire to "sell" the baseball stadium to Omahans -- he instead decided to try and get it done without a vote, which resulted in alienating large swathes of the populace.

Trying times can make people yearn for the old days. The fact is that Daub got results as mayor, and the city was percolating along while he was in charge.

Daub's supporters are more motivated. Therein lies the key to his victory tomorrow (a probable narrow win.)

Is there enough angst about Daub's tenure as mayor to turn out anti-Daubites? Will there be a high turnout in North O due to the competitive city council race?

Unlikely. This race isn't particularly historic. There is general apathy regarding both candidates.

I'd say a Daub victory -- by 600 votes.

Macdaddy said...

Suttle is NOT the better candidate. It really isn't close. Should he win it means that Omaha has officially become a city organized by party over everything else. It means that Obama left behind a very impressive political machine that will control Omaha for a long, long time.

Anonymous said...

I think Sweeper the Greek is spot on. If I had to predict an upset it would be Peffer over Thompson. I would definatley take the under on that one.

MacMommy said...

Macdaddy you are absolutely correct
Suttle is NOT the better candidate.
And I sure hope it isn't a close race, this is nerve racking! IF Suttle should squeeze in - we are all in BIG trouble. In just one year he could ruin 'our' city. I cannot imagine 4 years worth of ruin. He just plain and simply is NOT mayor material.

I suspect IF he does get elected - he still won't have too much support, regardless. His HORNS would be showing is no time.

MacMommy said...

oops, typo, meant

Suttle's horns would be showing IN no time

A Daubette said...

I had the opportunity to meet Mary Daub the other night. She is an especially intelligent, polite, kind, and lovely lady. And very supportive to her husband, Hal.

And, you know what they say;
"Behind every Successful Man is a Good Woman."

I was very impressed !!!
Glad to be voting for them !!!

Anonymous said...

Here you go my predictions;

Daub 53 per cent

Gray 51 per cent

Jerram 51 per cent

Pfeffer 51 per cent

Blumenthal 54 per cent

ricky from omaha

Anonymous said...

Oh, you're right Daubette! Mary is wonderful! Go Mayor Daub!

A Daubette said...

Yeay... Mayor Daub !!!
The Best of the Best !!!!!!

Geosuser said...

Maxwell 52% vs. Jerram 48%

Anonymous said...

Sweep give me Browm/ Gray $10,000 each side; Maxwell/ Jerram $10,000 each side; Stothert $10,000, $500 on Blumenthal; $10,000 on Thomson and $5,000 on Peffer. If the calks all win, I owe $0.00; if the dogs all win you owe $55,000. With a line like that I doubt you could find Leavenworth Street in a cab with a map and GPS. P.S. I'll just watch the mayor's race between crazy ideas and a crazy man.

Anonymous said...

To Macdaddy 5:09 PM:

You mentioned that "if Suttle should happen to win this election then Omaha has officially become a city orgainized by party over everything else." I agree with you that could happen. However, I hope voters are going to be more sensible.

How VERY UNFORTUNATE, if voters in this particular race, vote only by Democratically, rather than, factually ! It would be a SAD situation, as well.! Every vote counts and will affect everyone of us throughout the whole city !

In this current economy, we NEED the most capable candidate elected mayor. It doesn't, nor, should it matter if you are a democrat or a republican.

But, what does, matter for us to get the right mayor is - who is the most qualified - that is Hal Daub - he has the experience; and, is therefore, the most qualified candidate that we have - so, with that...

Don't Settle for Suttle ! And, later have regrets !!! Vote Hal Daub !!! I am positive that we would be glad we did !!!

I said...

I sure like Hal Daub's new buy ad on TV, it's professional. But what's with Jim Suttle - because he still has the same old goofy ad on there.

Yep, Anonymous 6:49 - Suttle is a crazy man with crazy ideas alright. Just waiting to see what craziness will pop out of his mouth next time. If it wasn't so serious, it would be comical.

Can't imagine what it would be like to have a crazy man as Omaha's mayor. We've been lucky thus far! Hope we don't fine out !

Insider said...

Sorry for reposting this, I accidentally posted it to yesterdays post doing some catch-up reading.

I cannot figure out how Suttle is trying to make himself out to be the "let's get a long" candidate, when most people can't stand him and his pompous arrogance. We saw this frequently and publicly with how little the city council respected him. Even the former mayor only begrudgingly and under pressure supported him. As much as he says he wants to get consensus, and see what others think, he has also stated several times that he just does whatever he wants and asks for foregiveness later instead of permission. Not only has he stated it, he went over Faheys head (stabbing him in the back along the way) on a trip to DC. Is this what we want? Somebody who does whatever the hell they want, and whatever act serves THEM best, and then try to fix it with a "Hey, sorry about that."

If Jim gets mayor watch how big HDR gets. With Jim at the helm I wonder what sort of sweet deals will be hammered out at the tax-payers expense. I am not saying that HDR is a bad company, however, you cannot trust a wolf to watch the chickens; and I know how Jim likes to work under-the-table deals disguised as "favors".

The bottom line is that Suttle couldn't steer a train. With him at the controls, he'd somehow manage to crash it in to a tree. The only thing Jim might know a little bit about are the sewer systems, and that is because they are both full of the same thing.

KP said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
KP said...

Thompson 48%

Also wanted to mention that Thompson states in his latest mailer (hit households 5/11) that the Baseball Stadium vote passed 8 - 0...

Strange thing is...when did we get an 8th councilman...?


Anonymous said...

Streets and Smith on Politics
Here's the deal...

Turn-out is 22%

Daub has the better ground game between the two-Jeff Kanger is Daub's go to guy-Daub wins-52%

Ben Gray has an ffective message and has done what it takes to unseat an incumbent-Gray wins-51%

Maxwell's name id will be enough to overcome the money advantage Jerram has. When the pospective voter opens the door to Maxwell, there is much more substance than Jerram's "yes we can."

Pete Festerson will win and immediately begin his campaign for Mayor.

Stothert wins BIG!

Thompson's ground game ran circles around his opponent. Again, like Maxwell, when the prospective voter opens the door, there is just more substance with Thompson Thompson's mail campaign was very effective! Thompson did a much better job convincing voters why he should be re-elected than Puffer did trying to tear Thompson down. The "True Republican" campaign failed 4 years ago and will again tomorrow. CS is 0 for 2. Thompson wins approaching 60%.

A Daubette said...

There was another great article in this Sunday's OWH again with the writer taking feathers out of Suttle's hat and putting them into Daub's hat.

Suttle is asking the voters to trust he will use the problem-solving skills that he learned while working as an engineer to fix crime and unemployment. He's got to be kidding!

OWH also mentioned Daub's 8 years in Congress and his 2-four year terms as mayor, while Suttle was landing road and bridge contracts. I ask you, what does getting contracts for roads and bridges got to do with having experience for being Omaha's next mayor? No wonder he wants to build bridges and toboggan runs. Apparently, that is all he knows.

The article said Suttle's approach to retail politics appears more learned than natural, as compared to Hal Daub's naturalness.

The article went on to say that Suttle has had LIMITED POLITICAL SUCCESS as a 1-four-year term on the city council. OWH said that Suttle's BIGGEST accomplishment on the city council was working out a compromise to allow minors to attend concerts in venues that serve alcohol, with parents permission (of course). What a joke!!!

Now, compare that to Daub's Qwest Center (that people of Omaha took a vote on), air surveillance, and police helicopters, and the West Dodge Expressway, just to mention a few. Note: these things were ALL needed. But, I ask you, are minors going to concerts in venues where alcohol is served really
needed for our city ??? And how is Suttle's BIGGEST accomplishment even considered an accomplishment?
I thought he wants to fight crime, encourage higher education, create employment. Or, does he want to teach children to go to bars, clubs, etc. (and at vulnerable ages)? And, now compare that to Daub starting Sun Dawg's to get kids off the street, plus, the other things he has accomplished for our Omaha youth. Who's the more sensible man for the job ???

I'll say one thing, Suttle has got his gawl for even running against Daub. Suttle is goofier than all get out.

A Grandmother said...

I really would think that IF most PARENTS, GRANDPARENTS, TEACHERS or CHRISTIANS knew of Suttle's GREAT accomplishment of allowing minor's into alcohol venues. Suttle would lose their respect and VOTE !

Gosh, but with a signed permission slip. Umm...I see RED FLAGS !

A Daubette said...

On the news tonight Suttle was saying that he was hitting some nursing homes today for votes.

Hal, maybe you or some of your camp should visit some retirement and/or nursing homes too !

LOL... Let's get out the buses and offer rides to the polls.

Nate said...

Why dont we get any odds for the Chuck Sigerson race? I dont care if he isn't in a "competitive race", I still want those odds! BTW, whats your over/under on the turnout? Mine is 19%, and its really pathetic that the greatest democracy on earth doesn't have better voter turnout. How very sad.

Kate Witek said...

Predictions of a Maxwell victory are simply silly.

Chip, congratulations on joining me in the Lost-Two-Elections-In-One-Year club.

Anonymous said...

Stothert will win by at least 30%

Anonymous said...

Who will Jon Blumenthal blame for his loss this time?

After the Primary he blamed his campaign team, the Republican Party and the voter.

I predict after getting crushed again, he will switch parties and run as a Democrat in the first race he can.

It's natural fit for him.

in the know said...

Jon Blumenthal won't switch parties, his drinkin' buddies won't approve of that, i mean Terry people.

He'll just run for something else, or better yet he will find out there is no room for politicians in Omaha who flat out lie about their opponent.

Furthermore, people told him NOT to go negative.

He did and this buttkicking he is about to receive is totally deserved.

Stothert - 70%

Anonymous said...

10:26 AM. I dont know. I bet maybe he could blame his friend Maggie O'Brien at the Omaha World Herald

Anonymous said...

kate, it would be funny if chip maxwell lost twice.

chip maxwell is one of those guys like sullivan who will run for anything. they get off on power.

BTW, this would be chip's 3rd thing he has failed at in he last 6months if the loses this race.

anyone remembered chip's short-lived KCRO 660 weekend show.

his show got replaced with the best of steve arterburn show

Anonymous said...

Sounds like the Stothert grass roots effort worked Blumenthal over pretty good this last weekend.

They even lit dropped the Blumenthal van parked in his driveway yesterday.

Anonymous said...

Pete Festerson will win by a land slide.

ben gray I think will win and I hope will won.

I know ernie chambers will be mad if that happens

cause frank brown is his puppet

and channel 22 aka CTI

has been attacking ben gray for not be a radical far-left guy like chambers is

and we dont need a councilman who only works for the intrests

for public access show hosts and their 50 or so viewers.

we need someone who truly represents district 2.

gernandt will win easily. how many times has joesph v. ran and lost.

i think thompson will win but peffer could pull of a miracle of a win in district 6.

Anonymous said...

With Ron Hug, Terry Moore, & Tom Becka's endorsements Hal Daub will win by 3%

Festersen will win big
Frank Brown by less than 10 votes
C. Jerram by less than 200 votes
Gernandt wins by comfortable size
Jean St. over Blum by 10%
Sigerson re-elected

Anonymous said...

Daub will win by 5 percent
Festersen big
Ben Gray by a few votes
Maxwell by a few votes
Stothert by 7 percent
Thompson by 7 percent
Sigerson by 90 percent

Jim Vokal for Treasurer petition-let's get it started people...

Anonymous said...

What reasons to vote Frank Brown out of office? What reasons to keep him in office? Unless you like a loaf who actually thinks
asking KFAB for an apology and to
censor Becka is a grand idea. He
has systematically kept his district in poverty by his own
self-serving ignorance of how to
lead. He should have been raising holy hell over the exploding crime
rate, but instead had the audacity to whine when someone dares to speak out. Hope Ben knows how to
turn out his vote.
the truth

Anonymous said...

Daub will win by 13%

Anonymous said...

Hal Daub will win by a handy five percent

Anonymous said...

I just voted (mid-town, Maxwell-Jerram area) and I was number 12 and its almost 2:00.

I predict turnout will be way down.

Anonymous said...

I'm in the same district ( diferent ward) and I was number 60 at 10:30 this morning. Voter turnout sucks.

Anonymous said...

Given Maxwell's pathetic fundraising performance and lack of effort generally (in this election and the last), predictions of a Maxwell victory are wishful thinking.

dave phipps said...


Voter Turnout? 25%

Anonymous said...

Maybe Blumenthal can locate his integrity again for those that remained loyal and tried to steer him in a positive direction.

Anonymous said...

To Anons 1:40 and 1:56, I too am Dist. 3 & voted at the Softball HQ @ 50 & Pine. I was #107 @ 1:30.

For the primary I was # 70 @ 2:00. Went back & checked @ 6:00 and it had exactly doubled to 140. So... it appears turnout is stronger today than for primary for whatever that's worth.

Anonymous said...

to 1:08 pm on may 12

the reason a lot of people wanted brown out of office cause frank brown

was serving only ernie chambers and other race-baiters intrests

and not the intrests of north omaha