Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Vokal poll: Daub in 3-way, Vokal in 2-way

The Jim Vokal for Mayor campaign sent out a poll conducted over the weekend of January 24-25, 2009.

The poll of 432 likely voters showed the following:

If election were held today who would you vote for?

Hal Daub: 33%
Jim Vokal: 27%
Jim Suttle: 15%
Not sure/Refused: 26%



If the election were held today between Daub and Vokal, who would you vote for?

Jim Vokal 43%
Hal Daub 35%
Not Sure/Refused 22%


Interesting stuff.
**

Other data from Vokal's poll:
Favorable/Unfavorable


The poll had a breakdown of:

Democrats: 46%
Republican: 41%
Independent: 12%


Male: 48%
Female: 52%


And, interestingly, the City Council district breakdown was as follows:
District
1 (Suttle): 18%
2 (Brown): 6
3 (Vokal): 14
4 (Gernandt): 13
5 (Welch): 12
6 (Thompson): 24
7 (Sigerson): 14

Marin of Error is +/- 4.5%

In the OWH, the Daub and Suttle campaigns both said (really, both?) that the Vokal poll was "outdated".

***

Want to see the entire summary?
Well, click here, friends!
And, we're even going to embed it at teh end of this post, so you can just scroll down!
(Yes, yes, you're welcome. No, YOU'RE the best.)

***

Our analysis?

Well, first off, this is Vokal's polling firm, so Daub and Suttle are both going to say it's slanted, or no good or whatever.
That's fine, but at least lets see some reasoning behind that. Otherwise, we see no reason to discount what seems to be a valid poll, using standard polling analysis. (Which we'll assume was used here. This isn't an internet poll or a, hurumph, robo-call poll.)

Second, it shows what most of already know: Hal Daub is a polarizing figure in Omaha politics.

Some people love him -- 51% favorables, with 15% saying he's "one of the best".
But, he also has (compared to the challengers) high unfavorables, at 37%.
And only 12% couldn't rate/didn't know/not sure on Daub.

Compare that to Vokal, where 32% couldn't come up with an opinion on him.
(55% said they didn't have any thoughts on Suttle. Ouch.)

Third, it shows that Daub has a decent lead in the three-way race, but potentially, Vokal takes the lead in a Daub-Vokal matchup.

Now, we say "potentially", because there was a whopping 22% who were unsure in the head to head matchup. That is quite a few to be persuaded.

And that is what the campaign is for.

Finally, we note the timing on this.

Back on January 23rd, we had a commenter who has seemed to have inside info, give "Daub" poll numbers as follows:
Daub: 41%
Vokal: 21%
Suttle: 23%

Then the Vokal camp came out with a "flash poll", taken using a robo-caller, that showed the following:
Daub: 38%
Vokal: 39%
Suttle: 22%

And again, Vokal's poll today (from January 24-25) shows
Daub: 33%
Vokal: 27%
Suttle: 15%

Now all we can say is, all of these are waaaay different.
Hey, and guess what? These polls were taken right around the time that both Daub and Vokal had their first TV ads on the air.
And Suttle hasn't even been up yet. And Pope Toboggans be damned, you gotta figure he'll get closer.

So, like it or not, this race is still a free-for-all.
Can Daub hold the lead? Can Vokal pull close enough? Can Suttle pull within the other two?

And what of those undecided voters?

Stay tuned kids!

***
The poll:
Vokal Poll 021009


Bookmark and Share

57 comments:

Anonymous said...

Another Vokal press release brought to you by Street Sweeper.

Anonymous said...

Uh, and the Omaha World-Herald.

Anonymous said...

Do you Daub Disciples honestly believe that SS wouldn't publish a Daub poll if it was forwarded?

Hal doesn't have good numbers to report, that's why he ain't reportin' em!

Anonymous said...

Another poll, another sleazy tactic by Jordan McGrain.

Anyone else wondering why the poll is so old? It was taken when Vokal was THE ONLY ONE ON THE AIR with TV ads! 71% of respondents said they'd seen his ad on TV.

We won't see that in a blog update, though, will we?

Street Sweeper said...

From the OWH:

"Daub started running an ad on Jan. 23, just before Vokal’s poll was taken. The ad is no longer running."

From L. St:

"These polls were taken right around the time that both Daub and Vokal had their first TV ads on the air. And Suttle hasn't even been up yet."

Anonymous said...

Of course, now none of the three candidates are on TV.

Anonymous said...

I doubt 71% saw Daub's ad, too. Vokal had been up on air for weeks. Daub's had just gone up the day before. Vokal was the only one a number of people even knew was running for mayor at that point.

But Jordan's not trying to obtain accurate information, otherwise he wouldn't have wasted his money. He's trying to issue propaganda, to bend facts so they look better for him.

Anonymous said...

Where is the money Vokal's spending on polls and ads coming from? To me it's obvious Vokal is broke and is now throwing in the kitchen sink. I say Vokal's out before the primary.

Anonymous said...

Hal Daub is so old he has an autographed bible.

GOP Insider said...

Not to put a damper on things, but has there ever been a poll released by Jordan McGrain that was actually accurate?

Rick said...

I don't know whether or not to believe these polls.
But it seems to me that Councilman Suttles campaign is floundering and I don't know why.
He has money, has done a decent job as Councilman, is out in the community hearing from constituents.
He has experience and a good resume.
Democrats have made inroads in Douglas County so it would seem that an Obama bounce would help Suttle.
So I wonder why his campaign seems to not be getting any traction.

Ricky From Omaha

Anonymous said...

It is interesting that Jordan's internal poll (which showed Vokal ahead by one point)was taken on or within 24 hours of the this newly released, but dated, poll. So Jordan are you telling us that we are to believe both polls that were done at the same time but had very different results? Seems to me we should believe neither.

Anonymous said...

Write in that guy that wants to make Omaha smoke free so we all get rich.

Anonymous said...

Hal Daub is so old he grew up eating Private Crunch for breakfast.

OmaSteak said...

Rick,
Maybe Suttles campaign is floundering because he's a lousy candidate??? Every time he makes some grab at the local headlines, he comes off as a twit. It's going to take a whole lot of money for ads to gloss over his already established reputation/image.

Anonymous said...

Never expected to see Vokal on top in a 2-way. Interesting.

Anonymous said...

Suttle can't pull the trigger. He's been campaigning for three years and what do we get from him...bumpkus.

He's a light weight.

Can't have a mayor who can't pull the trigger. When he does, he shoots himself in the foot.

3rd floor watcher said...

Folks remember when Jordan McGrain and Bob Wickers were running the Brunning for Senate campaign and the Pit Yorkie published this poll......

Johanns - 39%
Bruning - 30%
Daub - 15%
Undecided - 16%

Then the Republican Senatorial Committee did an independent poll and it had the following results

Mike Johanns 58%
Jon Bruning 16%
Hal Daub 12%

Jordan and the gang dropped Johanns 19% points and Brunning gained 14%

Notice how their guy is a close second to the presumed front runner!!!!!


Here was Sweepers Comment on the Blog in 2007 on the Brunning Poll:

The poll conducted for Bruning's campaign, surveyed 400 likely Republican primary voters, was conducted September 10-12 by Dresner, Wickers and Associates and had a four-point margin of error.

So why publish a poll showing you nine points down? Well, we will let Bruning's manager Jordan McGrain tell it:


"These numbers show that the pundits who say Mike Johanns is a clear favorite are flat-out wrong. Johanns is not the heavyweight among Republicans some expect him to be."


Now back to my post: Notice a pattern here with Vokal folks. it's the same crap that was pulled 2 years ago by McGrain for Brunning. If Brunnings numbers were accurate why did he pull out??? Maybe because they knew the poll wasn't accurate!!!!

Anonymous said...

3rd Floor Watcher,

...and to quote HAL DAUB on the NRSC's poll you referenced:

“That NRSC poll was bogus.”

http://leavenworthstreet.blogspot.com/2007/09/daub-i-dont-want-to-make-another.html

Hal must (secretly)agree with Wicker's research methods.

Anonymous said...

"...this is Vokal's polling firm... seems to be a valid poll."

Ker Plop!

Sweepy, you have often been a good master blogger but now it is time to sweep thine own doorstep. If you cannot be more distanced from this race, why not drop it as a blog topic and switch to the national scene for a while?

Street Sweeper said...

We specifically made both those points.

We open it up to ANYONE to give a reason why this poll, or Daub's poll or another poll by a reputable firm is NOT valid.

Now Vokal's "flash" robo-call poll that was taken last month did not meet polling norms, and therefore should be taken for what it's worth. Same with push-polls.

But we would open it up to anyone to specify why a poll -- where it's not a push poll, and meets polling norms -- should automatically be discounted b/c of who paid for it.

And we would also add that if the Daub or Suttle camps (not just supporters) sent us a poll they had, we would ABSOLUTELY post it.

So have at it kids. I'm genuinely interested in your responses.

Anonymous said...

Seriously.

Anonymous said...

Ahhh, being reminded of the "polls" that Jordan McGrain put out there a little over a year ago for Jon Bruning helps put all of this a little bit more in perspective, huh?

macdaddy said...

Why is everyone getting hung up on polls? I don't know why the Daub camp is getting so torqued over this. If they want to win, they need to keep having Daub do the things he did the other day: give a list of specific things that he wants to get done. They should be things that the voter will think make a positive difference in Omaha AND be doable. For the rest of the Daub team, they need to copy the Obama strategy for Omaha which was to out-organize and out-hustle the opposition. Put money into GOTV. But don't think you can win this by running a couple of commercials and complaining on some blogs.

macdaddy said...

Even if it is the best blog in the whole darn state!

Street Sweeper said...

(that's more like it...)
;-)

Anonymous said...

The only reason to discount Vokal's poll, as both Daub and Suttle's campaigns pointed out, is because it was taken three weeks ago while he was still on television. It certainly gives us no indication where the race stands right now, or where it will be on election day.

Anonymous said...

Follow-up to "best darn blog in the state." Yeah, not once have I had a post here censored or edited. More than I can say for the Omaha World-Herald Public Pulse or WOWT's 6 online comments sections. I don't even bother to read OWH's Public Pulse anymore as they totally edit letters and sometimes change the whole intent and meaning. How infuriating that is. Keep up the good work, "Leavenworth Street."

Green Machine said...

Hey Sweeper, any polls on a 4-way race?????

Street Sweeper said...

GM,
Who did you have in mind?
Scarle, Odom, or some other Joe Jordan -esque name?

Anonymous said...

There's no way Vokal's numbers are that high. Its as much an anti-Daub vote as it is a vore for Vokal. The conditions are there for a strong Democrat to make a run. I am hoping Jim Suttle gets moving and gets on the air soon. I am hoping he has the money to compete down the stretch.

ps - has Daub paid his property taxes on time????

Anonymous said...

Joe Jordan-esque???? Interesting choice of words.

OmaSteak said...

Vokal's campaign is making robocalls again. I didn't hear the complete pitch being made. The first sentence had Vokal saying something about providing leadership for Omaha and I laughed so hard I dropped the phone.

Anonymous said...

I'd be interested to see a breakdown of the three-way poll by city council district... Jordan?

Anonymous said...

SS - How bout a post away from the Omaha scene for just a moment?
Any thoughts about the new leadership over at NEGOP (Fahlson and Perre) or anything going on over at NDP HQ.

Street Sweeper said...

If there's something to talk about, we'll talk about it.

If have something in mind, feel free to email.

-SS

Anonymous said...

The CC breakdown is included in that pdf or whatever that Sweeper posted. It's in there.

Anonymous said...

If Hal Daub has so much money and support - and such a commanding lead - why did he pull his ad??? He was on the air only two weeks!!!

Anonymous said...

If you look at question 2, it asks "what are the chances you are going to vote" and the answer for definitely is 89%. Anyone who has studied previous city elections will tell you that nowhere close to 89% of the voters vote. Secondly since this was a robo-call, who knows if the person responding was a.) an adult b.) a registered voter c.) sober. I seriously question this poll and I think the readers of this blog have a right to question it. Let's just wait til April and forget all the polling. Folks, this is just a city wide race. Relax.

Bonnie said...

Hey, anybody get the "What is Jim Vokal hiding from?" mailer from the Omaha Police union about sex offenders? I would say Mr. Vokal's ship has sunk. Not a big fan of the Omaha Police but "Politics make strange bedfellows" and thank you very much, OPD!

Anonymous said...

What is Jim Vokal hiding from?

Anonymous said...

still waiting on 3rd floor's poll numbers that show Jim in 3rd place. I have no doubt in my mind that sweeper would post them for you.

Anonymous said...

I'm still waiting for 3rd Floor to make any sense of any kind.

Anonymous said...

Obviously Jim means business about fixing the pension system if they are going on the attack like this.

Or... it could be another candidate pushing it...

Nebraska said...

SS
the blog title says "the talk of Nebraska politics. and you say you'll post on something outside of Omaha "if there's something to talk about."

Have you posted anything on Ben Nelson's role in shaping the economic stimulus bill?

That's a NE politics story with a national angle.

Anonymous said...

Maybe the Omaha police don't like people that are soft on sex offenders?

Anonymous said...

Hey anony 10:00 -

You mean people like Chuck Sigerson, Dan Welch, and Franklin Thompson? They all voted with Vokal.

Hal Daub and his cronies in the police union are pulling out all the stops already!

Anonymous said...

To Jordan at 10:13: your boys record is your boys record....why do you blame Hal for this??? Cops don't like people that coddle sex offenders!

Anonymous said...

Read the return address -- Omaha Police Association.

Anonymous said...

So your argument is that the police are lying to us?

Anonymous said...

This has nothing to do with the other campaigns. What did Jim Vokal do to get the police this worked up??

Anonymous said...

Jim Vokal went on WOWT saying this mailer that went out was retaliation of sorts because he opposed the police pension. WHAT??
He voted FOR the sweetheart spiked pension plan. I don't doubt this is politically motivated but don't go on camera, Vokal, and mislead the public. You know you got us into this fiscal fiasco with YOUR VOTES and don't lie to the public about it. I would love to see every single one of the city councilmen replaced including the do nothing toad from north omaha!

Anonymous said...

Well Jim Vokal had given Destination Midtown a whole new meaning.....lol

Anonymous said...

Okay. Now tell us, Jim Vokal, if you are elected mayor in this time of horrible and excessive crime and municipal fiscal crisis, how much of your time and our taxes will be spent repairing the relations between you and our police department? Will you hire a human relations consultant to conduct mitigation proceedings between you and the police? Oh, but wouldn't there have to be a $300,000 feasibility study on the effectiveness of such mitigation? Of course, this would all have to take place after you take up the court's time and resources with a lawsuit to reclaim your good name. It seems that you just don't "play well with other children." Controversy surrounds you and the red flags go up everywhere.

Anonymous said...

am I the only one on here that is intelligent enough to know that if the council had voted against the police pensions after voting for the fire pensions an expensive lawsuit would have been filed against the city? I would like to think the IQ of this blog is higher than than what you are showing.

Obviously Chuck, Dan, and Franklin all voted for the same thing the police union (aka Hal daub) is dogging Vokal for. Is it asking to much for you to do your own research? I think hal should condemn such an attack if this is indeed a 'new' Hal Daub.

Anonymous said...

Hopefully everyone posting here is "intelligent" enough to know that "Chuck, Dan and Franklin" are not running for mayor. Hal Daub had nothing to do with the police union mailing. See Jim. See Jim run. See Jim wrongfully accuse Hal. Hey, "anonymous 9:42 a.m." did I dumb that down enough for all those unintelligents on this blog?

Anonymous said...

MEDLOCK FOR MAYOR

Who is JB Medlock? Is this guy a joke or what? Apparently he has an office on of all streets, "Leavenworth Street".