B-B-B-Buy Bushwood?!
The Omaha Country Club just isn't doing it for Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey.
No the sixty-two year old needs to find an "attractive" new club that will suit his needs for prestige and just the right amount of back-slapping. And Dem Senators Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer have just the place for him. (D.C. chat has Fahey considering Senate bid – OWH – 2/11/07.)
Congressional County Club…er...the U.S. Senate.
Let's let Fahey put it in his own words:
"You'd be a member of the 100 Club…It's one of the highest honors a person could have."OK, so now that we know what issues Fahey will run on – him being in a swell new club and him being honored by you – let's get down to brass tacks and determine if he'd have a shot at winning the general (and this is all assuming Chuck Hagel doesn't run for re-election):
Fahey vs. Mike Johanns
Fahey gets blown away, potentially with David Hahn-esque numbers.
And it would probably be more likely that Fahey would wait to see whether Johanns would get in before committing.
Fahey vs. Jon Bruning
Some (like apparently Fahey and his manager Paul Johnson) think that Fahey would have a pretty good shot here. The view here on Leavenworth Street is that Bruning would out-hustle him every step of the way, and everywhere west of 150th Street Fahey would look like a rich old Omaha guy who doesn't understand the rest of Nebraska.
Fahey vs. Jeff Fortenberry
Fortenberry would clean his clock, Maxine Moul style. A possible reason for Fort to get in the race (assuming he could beat Bruning).
(Note we're leaving Lee Terry out of this analysis b/c we still think he's more likely to stay in the House, as his cred continues to rise.)
Fahey vs Pete Ricketts
The battle of Fairacres! We'll give Fahey a decent shot in this one – and the reason Nebraska Republicans probably wouldn't give Pete another go right away.
Fahey vs Hal Daub
Most would say give it to Fahey, since he beat Daub in Omaha. But this would still be an old school battle between party elders. Just for the heck of it, we'll give the edge to Daub and let the usual suspect hit the comment line to bitch about it.
Fahey vs Kermit Brashear
The OWH keeps mentioning his name in Senate stories, so they must know something about Brashear's interests. We just don't see a GOP nomination as the least bit likely, even if Kermit brings back his infringing green frog commercials.
Of course the scramble will be on (or off) as soon as Chuck Hagel announces his intentions…
Posts
19 comments:
"Fahey vs. Jeff Fortenberry
Fortenberry would clean his clock, Maxine Moul style. A possible reason for Fort to get in the race (assuming he could beat Bruning)."
YEAH RIIIIIIGHT! Personality goes far in elections. Fahey has some personality. Fortenberry is negative on the personality points. And beating Bruning? Now there's a guy with personality, charisma, and drive. Not to mention experience. No way Fortenberry could beat Bruning.
I just don't see Fortenberry anywhere close to having the credibility to take on a Senate race. He was dang lucky to run against Maul, who lacked personality even more than himself.
Well, aside from your perception of Fortenberry, the point which was emphasized was, "assuming he could be Bruning".
(And as far as Fahey goes, we seem to remember Dems getting all hot and bothered about the powerhouse candidate that was Maxine Moul.)
But lemme throw this one your way: Who has more personality, Johanns or Ricketts? And which one has been elected?
Now we're not saying Fortenberry WOULD win the nom, but we are saying mock Fortenberry at your own risk.
Fortenberry would beat Bruning......how, do you ask?
Answer: Dave Heineman. Jon endorses Osborne in the governor's race, this is Dave's chance to get back at Jon. With Heineman and Hagel endorsing Fortenberry, I don't see Bruning standing a chance.
Frankly, SS, there are several longtime Nebraskans who could beat Fort in the GOP primary in 2008. You've been star struck, for some reason. But speaking as one who actually resides in the First District, I assure you his stock isn't rising as quickly as you think.
Before this gets out of hand let's spell it out:
Leavenworth Street has endorsed no one, nor have we put odds on who we think would get the nom for the GOP. Nor do we think that Fort would beat Bruning or vice versa, or any other combo of candidates. When the subject of Fort came up, vis a vis Fahey, we pointed out our view. That's not to say we think Fort would get the nom, capice?
All that being said, I do think Anon's idea of endorsements by Heineman and Hagel is interesting.
this is nothing but a Pete Ricketts site!
OK - as long as we're all playing "for what it's worth", here's my 'FWIW':
Bruning is the guy - everything starts and stops with him, no matter what Chuck the Schmuck does. Bruning has the mojo. Here's one way it could go down - in 2008 Johanns takes Hagel down - with Bruning's help (piece a cake!), then next election Bruning takes the guv slot away from Heineman, with Johanns' assistance (easy as pie) - The shine will be seriously off Dave by then. Then, in 2012, Bruning unhorses Bennie the Jet. Any Dems, including the Eclectic Horseman from the Sand Hills, might just as well take the next 6 years off.
Game, set, match .....
UW,
Interesting theories, but keep in mind that:
1) Johanns is buddies with Hagel, and would never run against him;
2) We're not sure what the relationship is between Johanns and Bruning, but if it's anything like Hagel and Bruning, it ain't good;
3) If Hagel doesn't run we think there's a real good chance Johanns would jump at the spot. Would this mean Bruning would run against Johanns? We'll have to see;
4) It would have to be something significant to see a interparty challenge to a sitting Governor -- but guessing about 2010 or 2012? That's a little far out even for us...
Sweeper, first, methinks you underestimate Mike Fahey's electability. I direct you to Fahey's 2005 performance in the west-of-72nd-Street precincts. Of course, I'll allow that Elkhorn won't net him many votes, but frankly, he probably wasn't going to receive much support there in any event.
I also agree that Daub can't be dismissed out of hand. However, I think his "Let's drown Ashland!" proposal will sink him outstate. On the other hand, perhaps he could persuade outstaters that a New Atlantis would be a nifty tourist attraction. I'm skeptical.
You also overestimate Jon Bruning. Jon's a savvy politicianj, but the fact is that he has never faced a real (read monied) opponent in any of his campaigns.
I'm a dedicated Nebraska Democrat, but I don't see Scott Kleeb in this race.
As for Lee Terry and Jeff Fortenberry, I don't believe either of these guys stand much of a chance given their lackluster records in Congress, and particularly with regard to their even more diminished roles in a minority party role.
Kermit. Don't see it, but I agree that there seems to be something going on.
Mike Johanns? I know that he left office with high approval ratings, but even you have to admit that he was probably the weakest governor Nebraska has had in 40 years. Despite having received two strong elecoral mandates, Johanns was overly cautious and always avoided the tough call. Imagine where we'd be with the Omaha Public Schools fiasco if Johanns were at the helm (he'd have been term-limited anyway). While I did not vote for him, Dave Heineman at least makes me feel like we have a governor again.
Finally, Johanns might not be greeted with sweets and flowers if he delivers the shiv for the Bush adminstration on agricultural reform.
I say look for Mike Johanns to become chairman or a Cargill or a Con Agra rather than return to elective politics.
Wake up, people!
NE Voter,
First, thank you for the very detailed response. That’s what we like around here. (And yes, we’re awake...)
Now on to your predictions:
1) We don’t underestimate Fahey’s electability. But let’s not pretend that West Omaha has anything in common with Western Nebraska. And Fahey did well only as an incumbent against a weak and underfunded opponent.
2) Yeah, Daub might be a tough sell, but don’t get carried away about Lake Ashland (even though that would be cool).
3) Bruning will raise plenty of money and the fact that he hasn’t faced anyone is a testament to his political strength.
4) We’re not sure why Kleeb’s name even comes up. Has he found a job yet?
5) Again, you’re underestimating the GOP Congressmen in a Red state. You’re crazy to count out Reps who have been dominating in their past elections.
6) Pen this in: If Johanns runs, he wins.
Well - I admit I was sort of screwing with you there, but two points remain:
1) Bruning is HOT. I've seen the guy work a couple of times and I'm telling you, you can smell ozone around him. Little old ladies get damp, and strong, steely-eyed men nod when he makes a point. It's my opinion that he is/will be an honest-to-gawd phee-nom. I dunno what kind of public servant he will be, but he will be one ...
2) You speak of Johanns' affection for the Chuckster. Surely a jaded old gobbler like yourself understands the dangers inherent in ascribing real loyalty or trust to any pol. Any of them will sell their sister for a vote or two, not to mention dump a buddy in a heart-beat if they think it will be to their advantage.
If I sound cynical, it's only because I am.
I am going to have to agree with NE Voter...I also see Johanns headed to the private sector once his gig is up in D.C.
I will also sign on as an oarsman with Uncle W...I too think Bruning has the rocks...and the folks like his conservative toughness. So unless Bruning shows up for work dressed as Corporal Klinger...I will be so bold as to declare him the frontrunner at this point in time.
"Ethanol Dave's" stock is headed into a tailspin and his achievements during this session of the Unicameral will decide his fate and political stature. He "talks the talk" but he doesn't "walk the walk."
That being said...whatever "Ethanol Dave" says about Bruning will likely be ignored.
I find it amusing that you've labeled Bruning "conservative tough", considering he's not always been a "conservative", or for that matter, a Republican
Anon...
Could be Bruning got religion...maybe he didn't like what he saw and moved on. It happens.
Occassionaly, it would be nice to see LS delve into the world of state-level politics. The following story would make a wonder topic for a posting?
State Senator Nantkes -- PLOWED
(KETV Omaha) -- A Nebraska state senator has issued an apology after she was stopped by police on suspicion of drunken driving.
Lincoln Sen. Danielle Nantkes drove her car into a snowplow Tuesday night, according to a police report. She was ticketed on suspicion of negligent driving and for refusing a preliminary alcohol test and refusing a chemical test, the report said. In a statement released Wednesday afternoon, Nantkes said: "I was involved in a property damage incident last night. Alcohol was a factor. No one was hurt. I humbly apologize to my constituents, colleagues, friends and the public. I will seek an alcohol evaluation and I will follow and complete all recommendations."
SnowBLWR, (what, you couldn't buy a vowel?)
Consider yourself our Unicameral correspondent. And I guess this qualifies as political news. If this happened to, say, Ben Nelson, I suppose we'd cover it.
Then again, it was Danielle Nantkes, so I'm not sure we care that much. But maybe. We'll chat about it a little.
Holy crap. The online LJS article on Nantkes has 97 comments. That's by far the most I've even seen. Is this really that big of a story? Are people just surprised that State Senators can't be arrested?
Street Sweeper, those who follow the Legislature know there is a cadre of liberal state senators who aren't worthy of their $12,000 annual salary. Among them are ultra-liberal Bill Avery; socialist Norm Wallman; slick trial lawyer Tom White; loony leftist DiAnna Schimek; radical enviro Don Preister; communist Gwen Howard; and 3-time-DUI-offender Danielle Nantkes.
It's time Nebraska conservatives devote as much attention to the Legislature as the Nebraska Dems and Nebraskans for Peace. Let's start by ousting the immature inebriate, Nantkes.
Every Nebraskan should take time to write his/her state senator, demanding that Nantkes be encouraged to resign. Also, the Legislature should immediately take up a bill to strike Article III, Section 15 of the Nebraska Constitution, which says state senators — except in cases of treason, felony allegations or a breach of the peace — are privileged from arrest during the session.
FYI, bills in the Legislature can be introduced at any time at the request of the Governor, or by a Committee if OK'd three-fifths of the full Legislature.
Nothing like taking the limelight away from Fahey, but since it's already been done, I am happy to carry the torch for a moment.
I am sick and tired of pols (BOTH PARTIES!) Seeking substance abuse counseling AFTER they get caught. How did this woman ever get elected?! I am a fairly well informed voter and I have never heard of this woman. Thank you term limits-with a revolving door, this is the kind of crap representation the citizens of Nebraska can expect to have.
Way to go all you feel good liberals. At least this irresponsible woman didn't have her 3 kids in the back of her car when she plowed into the snow plow like the good judge's daughter in Illinois. By the way,doesn't anyone wonder about her decision making skills since she got in her car, during a snowstorm, after having several drinks-on a weeknight during the legislative session? Everyone who voted for her should have to spend a day and night babysitting this elected official for the rest of her term.
Post a Comment