Hagel Plans

On Omaha KMTV Ch. 3's Thursday 6pm news, Joe Jordan reported that while Chuck Hagel won't reveal his Presidential plans until January 2007 at the earliest, two Hagel insiders said Hagel:

1) will NOT run for President, and

2) will NOT run for re-election to the U.S. Senate.

**Update 1/3/07**

Following is the transcript of Joe Jordan’s 12/28/06 story:

ACCORDING TO THE POLLS IF HE'S RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT NEBRASKA SENATOR CHUCK HAGEL HAS A LONG, LONG WAY TO GO.

OUTSIDE NEBRASKA IF VOTERS KNOW HAGEL AT ALL, IT’S FOR HIS CRITICISM OF THE WAR.

CRITICISM THAT'S BEEN NON-STOP.

Senator Chuck Hagel: (“Face the Nation) <"EVERY DAY IT GETS WORSE.">

EVEN IF HAGEL'S BEEN RIGHT, HIS ANTI-WAR TALK HAS INFURIATED MANY VOTERS.

LAST MONTH AN ELECTION DAY EXIT POLL FOUND ONLY 37 PER CENT OF NEBRASKA VOTERS WHO THOUGHT HAGEL WOULD MAKE A GOOD PRESIDENT.

HAGEL HAS DOWNPLAYED THAT POLL, AND EARLIER THIS MONTH WAS KEEPING HIS FUTURE TO HIMSELF.

(Joe Jordan) "DO YOU WANT TO BE PRESIDENT?

(Senator Chuck Hagel) I'LL TELL YOU ABOUT MY POLITICAL FUTURE WHEN I DECIDE IT, SOMETIME NEXT YEAR.

(Joe Jordan) SO YOU HAVEN'T MADE IT YET?

(Senator Chuck Hagel) I'LL LET YOU KNOW EARLY NEXT YEAR."

(Joe Jordan)

I'VE TALKED TO TWO SOURCES CLOSE TO HAGEL.

THEY TELL ME THEY THINK THAT IN THE END HAGEL WON'T RUN FOR THE WHITE HOUSE, AND WON'T RUN FOR RE-ELECTION TO THE SENATE.

THEY BOTH BELIEVE THAT AFTER 12 YEARS ON CAPITOL HILL, HAGEL IS READY TO LEAVE POLITICS BEHIND.

REPORTING LIVE JOE JORDAN ACTION THREE NEWS.

And welcome to our national audience interested in Hagel's plans! For more info on who may compete for Hagel's Senate seat in 2008, visit our post on that topic here.

And the wheels continue to turn.

See you next year!

Merry Christmas to All!

Above is a photo I happened to find on Flickr, of the Nebraska State Christmas Tree.
This is from the set of photographer “Chris in NE” . He also has a fantastic group of photos from the State Capitol, as well as other great pics from Nebraska in general.
(Chris, as there’s really no way of contacting you, if you don’t want this photo or links up, please contact Leavenworth Street and we’ll take 'em down.)

2006 Politician of the Year

Who is it?
Why?
Who were the runners-up and also-rans?
Well here ya go!

LEAVENWORTH STREET NEBRASKA POLITICIAN OF THE YEAR!



Dave Heineman
In the span of ten months, Governor Dave Heineman went from seat warmer for the Osborne for Governor brigade, to the most powerful, influential and popular politco in the state. He replaces U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel as the dean of state GOP and has the mandate to do whatever he wants as Governor. During the general election, Heineman selflessly put himself second to helping other GOP candidates get elected. Heineman will dominate the Nebraska political scene for the next eight years. His triumph over King Osborne and his romp in the general election, along with his rise from party loyalist to top of the heap makes Governor Dave our Politico of the Year.

Ernie Chambers
If Heineman was our first choice, State Senator Ernie Chambers would be choice 1A (the smoke was thick in the back room, as these two top choices were hashed out). Ernie's ongoing swan song as his thirty-five years at the Unicameral in Lincoln come to a close in 2008 (being pushed out) is a doozey: the partitioning of the Omaha school districts, essentially based on race, was a masterful political move in the legislature, became the story of the year, was one of the top two issues of the Governor's campaign primary, became a national story and ended up pitting Democrats against Democrats, Republicans against Republicans, liberals against liberals, and any other mish-mash of ideologies you'd like to throw out. In the center of it all was Chambers, who likely has more chess moves to make, but will eventually let others sort out all the ramifications. Ernie doesn't get mad, he gets even (just ask Councilman Dan Welch). And after thirty-five years you could argue that he saved one of his biggest political moves for last.


OTHER NEBRASKA POLITICOS WHO MADE 2006 THE YEAR IT WAS...

BEHIND THE SCENES

Carlos Castillo
As campaign manager during Dave Heineman's meteoric rise, Castillo wasn't Karl Rove – Heineman himself gets as much credit as anyone. But he implemented the plan, did a masterful job of keeping the things running smoothly and hit Tom Osborne where he was vulnerable – particularly with the turning point of the immigration debate. Castillo did a great job of pounding home the campaign message during the primary: "Heineman is the true Republican in the race." (He also knew how to keep things low-key, in order to wallop Dave Hahn in the general.)

Lou Ann Linehan
You can't have a discussion about political masters without mentioning LouAnn Linehan. She's been a force in Nebraska politics for two decades now. In 2006, many called Linehan Pete Rickett's shadow campaign manager, making the Senate race a modified Nelson-Hagel redux. During her hiatus from her job as Chuck Hagel's Chief of Staff, she ran the state party as an arm of the Ricketts campaign, and blasted away at Nelson. She hand-picked Jessica Moenning to be Ricketts' manager, and lined up the same consultants as Hagel. And given the results, she now gets plenty of the blame for everything that happened…


THE 800 POUND GORILLAS

Chuck Hagel
After the huge victory of endorsing Heineman over Osborne, Hagel likely took his perceived Midas-touch a little too far. His pursuit of defeating Ben Nelson with Pete Ricketts, while taking state party resources away from other races, and criticizing Nebraskans and Nebraska companies in the process, has left a bad taste in the mouth of many in the party. He is still a formidable presence in the Nebraska GOP, but one has to think his criticism of the President, among other things, has put him in disfavor with party loyalists and may bring him a primary-challenge if he decides to run for re-election in 2008. At this point the question is Whither Chuck Hagel?

Ben Nelson
Nelson's gigantic election victory has meant good things – for Ben Nelson. However the implications of Nelson's victory with the complete lack of any assistance to any Democratic candidates (in stark contrast to Dave Heineman) or any resulting coattails shows that the only way a Democrat can win in Nebraska is to run as a Republican. After a brief resurgence, today the Nebraska Democratic Party is impotent.

Pete Ricketts
Pete's massive ad buys on television vaulted this newcomer onto the political scene. He defeated two more seasoned politicos in the primary with a conservative message and a selling point: I have the money to beat Ben Nelson. However, having the ability to be on more TVs than Alex Trebek, Ricketts' campaign showed that that without a clear message, name ID gets you nowhere.


POLS WHOSE STAR BURNED BRIGHT BRIEFLY BEFORE BEING SNUFFED OUT

Tom Osborne
Something happened on the way to the coronation; Osborne was given the rude awakening that disdain for party politics won't win you a party primary.

Scott Kleeb
The fact that Kleeb's campaign forced the President of the United States to fly in to defend his turf merits mention. But in the end, losing by ten points in the Year of the Democrats is like losing by twenty points in any other year.

Kate Witek
Losing TWO statewide races in a single year? That's gotta put her on the list…

***

Thanks to everyone who contributed nominations and comments!
Agree with these assessments?
Who do you think should have made the final cut?
Your comments now!

KPTM Features Leavenworth Street (sort of...)

Noting that we were named TIME’s Person of the Year, KPTM Fox 42 interviewed Leavenworth Street online last night for their story on the pronouncement (TIME’s Person of the Year: You – KPTM – 12/18/06). They went ahead and used the relatively lame quote we gave them, but at least they used our ham joke. (And we should note that Calvert Collins did not conduct the interview. No hard feelings!)

Keep those nominations coming in for the Leavenworth Street Nebraska Politician of the Year (to be announced Thursday the 21st)! Some of the nominees thus far include (in alpha order):

Jon Bruning............Carlos Castillo................Ernie Chambers
Jim Esch.................The Friend family..........Chuck Hagel
Julie Haney.............Dave Heineman.............Scott Kleeb
Lou Ann Linehan.....Kathleen McCallister.....Ben Nelson
Tom Osborne..........Pete Ricketts’ Mom........Adrian Smith

Nebraska Politician of the Year

We were recently informed that we at Leavenworth Street were named TIME Magazine’s Person of the Year. We were only moderately surprised at this honor – even though we were totally deserving.

So in that same vein, this Thursday afternoon, 12/21/06 (before everyone leaves for vacations), we will be announcing the Leavenworth Street Nebraska Politician of the Year.

And from now until then, on this comment board or via direct email to us, YOU may send in nominations for that Nebraska Politician of the Year (anonymously, or otherwise).

A Politician may be described as “Anyone involved in Nebraska politics”.

Therefore it could be an office holder, a candidate, a campaign worker, a political party worker, a consultant, a member of the media – just about anyone you can think of involved in Nebraska politics.

That person should be judged on their influence making, news making, difference making, interesting-ness or any other thing that you would like to take into account.

Leavenworth Street will then laboriously sift through these suggestions, and any others we may come up with, to announce our Nebraska Politician of the Year.

Get your nominations in now.

Separated at Birth - Jon Bruning

A little random Separated at Birth for you:

Attorney General, and suspected 2008 Senate candidate, Jon Bruning
and
from "Boogie Nights" among other filims, John C. Reilly

Carlos and the Dominoes

Carlos Castillo

Governor Dave Heineman’s campaign manager, Carlos Castillo, has accepted a gig as the head of the Nebraska Department of Administrative Services. Notwithstanding Democrat Grand Poobah Steve Achelpohl’s apparent required bitching about it, we congratulate Castillo for getting out of day-to-day politics and into a pretty good normal position. (Heineman elevates campaign manager – OWH – 12/13/06.)

So what does Castillo’s departure mean for the Nebraska political scene?

Well for one, the word was that Attorney General Jon Bruning was interested in having Castillo run his 2008 Senate Campaign. Now we don’t know whether Castillo was ever seriously interested in that position -- particularly given the lack of love of Bruning by Heineman and Senator Chuck Hagel. But in any case he won’t be available now, and the cupboard is fairly bare of any available Republican full-time politicos who have run (successful) statewide Nebraska races.

We’re not sure what Mike Johanns’ and Tom Osborne’s former campaign manager Vicki Powell is up to these days – she was a Bruning “staffer” and thought to be heading up things for Bruning before she left for TO’s camp. Former Pete Ricketts manager Jessica Moenning has assured Leavenworth Street that she does not (yet) have any plans for 2008. And for what it’s worth, word is that Ricketts is dying to jump back in for 2008, for one office or another. Does the fact that both of those politicos ran disastrous campaigns mean they’re damaged goods?

Would Bruning then go out-of-state for someone to run his campaign? It’s not unheard of, and while Nebraska knowledge can be important, actual campaign experience is crucial as well. Jeff Fortenberry went out of state for his campaign manager. And of course there are always Nebraskans who want a chance to prove themselves on the larger stage as well, such as Dan Huber or Jamie Karl from Adrian Smith’s camp, Jordan McGrain who ran Omaha City Councilman Jim Vokal’s campaign and other legislature campaigns or even Sam Fischer who ran David Kramer’s U.S. Senate campaign.

But Bruning apparently has had some success in getting his ’08 Senate campaign rolling: word is that he has lured away Rep. Lee Terry’s fundraiser for a Bruning Omaha campaign office (though fundraisers are known to be a little more fungible in the campaign world.)

And for what it’s worth in the larger political universe, some of the national political watchers (in this case the National Journal Hotline guys) still aren’t willing to recognize that Hagel will have real opposition. And we continue to watch the dominoes fall…

The Omaha Daily Fishwrap

In one final dig at the Pete Ricketts campaign, the Omaha World Herald came up with a rather idiotic way of assessing the spending for the ’06 Senate campaign (Ricketts spent three times as much per vote as Nelson – OWH – 12/7/06).

The final spending numbers came out, showing Ricketts spent about $12 million in his campaign to unseat incumbent Senator Ben Nelson, where Nelson spent about $7 million to defeat the political newcomer. Of course they left out the additional $2 million that the national Democrats spent on behalf of Nelson, where the national GOP did not spend on Ricketts. So that makes it approximately $12.7 million to $9.3 million right?

Well, no, the OWH presents it to you this way: Ricketts spent $60 per VOTE versus Nelson’s $19 per VOTE. As if Ricketts’ plan was to garner only 36%. Most normal media outlets would calculate per VOTER in such an analysis. If done correctly, it comes out that Ricketts spent, approximately, $21 per voter and Nelson spent approximately $15 per voter. That’s a hell of a lot different than what the OWH came up with, isn’t it?

And just so you Omahans who don’t read anything else can compare, take a look at the REPORTING on this story that Nate Jenkins of the Associated Press did (Campaign reports: Ricketts spent nearly twice as much as Nelson – LJS – 12/7/06). (However, we would also like to point out to Jenkins that he left out the $2M chucked in by the national Dems, and that when that amount is added in, it comes out that Ricketts spent more like 1.3 times more than Nelson -- not twice as much.) We’d also point out that Jenkins made the effort to reflect the Consumer Price index of 1988 dollars versus 2006 dollars when comparing the amount spent in the other high-priced Senate campaign – which the OWH again neglected to do.

This is a ridiculously asinine, biased and frankly unethical reporting of the news by the OWH. What is their motive? We guess it’s something along the lines of trying to shame candidates from spending huge amounts in a campaign (which Ricketts obviously did). (And that’s even being kind on our part, since their motive could rather be just to suck up to the newly elected Senator, who they biasedly supported all along.)

But hey, guess what? That’s not what the NEWS SECTION is for. At least it shouldn’t be. That’s why there’s an EDITORIAL page – so people can at least see, by definition, that the paper is expressing an opinion, as opposed to just reporting the news.

Papers and the other media can talk all day long about politicians being honest and ethical. But when the Omaha World Herald pulls this kind of crap, it’s time THEY get called on it. If only THEY could be voted out of office…

He keeps going...and going...and going...

Is 2008 too far away for you? Well how about 2009?!

It's apparent that a number of candidates have already flung their lids into the ring for the Omaha Mayor's office for 2009. Councilmen Jim Suttle and Jim Vokal have already started raising cash. And then there's former Mayor Hal Daub, who's being coy between and '08 Senate run and one for a return to the big office in the City/County Building.

One telling note about which one he prefers – or maybe is more likely to gun for – comes from a recent fund raiser for Jim Vokal. Notably off the list for those joining in for this Republican was… Hal Daub. If Daub was really just planning on a Senate run, one would think he'd join his fellow GOPer for such an event.

But beyond the big article in the OWH (Hal Daub considers City Hall return, Senate bid – OWH – 12/3/06), word is that Hal IS up and running (beyond the "thinking about it" stages). And apparently Jessica Moenning (she of the catastrophic Ricketts campaign) is Daub's chief organizer/campaign manager in waiting (***Update - See Below***).

Of course, the question really is, Waiting for which? We here at Leavenworth Street still feel Daub would have a very difficult time with a third shot at the Senate. Sure he wouldn't be going up against a sitting Senator, as he'd done both of the last times. But there's no indication that those across the state have a warm and fuzzy feel for him now (and "former Omaha mayor" doesn't necessarily help him in the 3^rd District either…).

Now it's always possible that Attorney Jon Bruning could implode (and we don't discount that a bit), but absent that, Nebraskans state-wide are more likely to want a fresh face.

But what about Omahans? 2009 is a looooong ways away. In a few years, will the Qwest Center still be humming along? Will the other financial issues be fixed? Will people be talking about a trolley – another of Daub's ideas? Or will Omahans feel that Daub's day is over and also want new blood?

Since he's been gone, Daub's reputation as Mayor has probably grown, as many see the initiatives he pushed really flourishing. He’s probably remembered most for his boundless energy – and one unlikely to be found at, say, the Holiday Bar at 4pm on a Wednesday. His contentious relationship with the City Council came when it was run by those who opposed most of his moves. Now that it's a GOP majority, would that make it easier for him? But, again, who knows what it may look like in three years.

In any case, expect Daub, Vokal and Suttle to be very active around Omaha for the next few years. Their posturing will be worthy of runway models.

***Update-12/6/06***
Leavenworth Street has been contacted directly by Jessica Moenning, who has stated that she has NOT committed to managing or organizing for Hal Daub and has NOT had any communications with Daub regarding such an endeavor.
We apologize for the incorrect assertion.

Separated at Birth - Chuck Hagel

And a Friday Separated at Birth for the latest pseudo-Presidential candidate.

Chuck Hagel
and
late Brazilian UN diplomat and “Statesman of the Year”, Sergio Vieira de Mello.