Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Bet on Fortenberry

First a Separated at Birth for the 1st District Candidates!

Jeff Fortenberry and Omaha WOWT Meteorologist, Jeff Jensen (suggested by a Leavenworth Street reader)

Maxine Moul and the Church Lady

And now Leavenworth Street gives our Odds for the Nebraska 1st District House race between:
Jeff Fortenberry (R) and Maxine Moul (D)

Odds to win
Fortenberry -- 1:3
Moul -- 8:1

(for non-gamblers out there, this means, if you wanted to bet on Fortenberry, you’d have to wager $3 to win $1, and for Moul, if you’d bet $1, you’d win $8)

Over/under for Fortenberry: 56%

(this is our mark for what we think Fortenberry will hit, your wager would be higher or lower than that)

Our analysis:

Fortenberry hasn’t committed any blunders in his first term and has run a relatively smooth campaign. He has voted with the sense of the First District, with a reputation of being thoughtful on ag and foreign affairs issues in his service on these committees.

As for Moul, after her initial announcement, any fire the campaign had quickly went out. While raising substantial campaign funds (a big chunk coming from Emily’s list and unions), she seems to be on the wrong side of many conservative issues, unlike her DINO companion Ben Nelson. This won’t win her any points in the First.

We expected this race to be on the national radar as the winnable one for Nebraska House Dems. Instead it has disappeared from the screen, and Fortenberry should find the odds in his favor on Tuesday.

Thursday: 2nd District Odds
Friday: 3rd District Odds (Presidentially interested!)
Weekend: Senate Odds

Once again, these odds are for recreational purposes only. Leavenworth Street does not suggest gambling using these odds. But we do support gambling in general. I mean, ever been to, say, a Vegas stag or stagette party with someone who doesn’t gamble, while everyone else does? Yeah, that person is a barrel of laughs. Just don’t blow it all at the boats, ok?


Anonymous said...

Beautiful.........I love the educated critique and the SABs. still could use a Yeardley Smith, but the Church Lady....nice!

Anonymous said...

I hope Pat Loontjer doesn't see your subheadings.

Street Sweeper said...

Remind me not to take him to Vegas, next time I go...

Anonymous said...


That's so special!

Anonymous said...