Lee Terry and Dan Aykroyd
Jim Esch and Josh Charles
And now…
Lee Terry (R) and Jim Esch (D)
Odds on Winning the 2nd District House race:
Lee Terry – 1:500
Jim Esch – 1000:1
Over/Under for Terry -- 63%
Odds Terry breaks 70% -- 50:1
Our analysis:
Lee Terry continues to the right things for the 2nd District and thus for re-election. One indication of his strength is that he drew nominal opposition this time around (again!). He’s right on all the issues and has done a good job in promoting Omaha area businesses every chance he gets. He has run a professional campaign and made no gaffes, or given voters a reason to kick him out.
While Jim Esch may be serious about his desire for elected office, he has done little to show he grasps what goes into a big-time campaign. His reliance on web-sites and paid-for placards around town fail to send a message other than that he is hip with the kids and can set you up with a great graphic artist. While he may want to run for another office some day, his poor allocation of resources (not to mention wearing a t-shirt in his TV ads) may also give future donors pause before tossing their money away.
Banking on Terry here would not be a gamble.
**Coming Soon!**
Friday - 3rd District Odds!
Weekend - Senate Odds!
As we’ve stated before, these Odds are not to be used for actual gambling. They can however, be used for pretend gambling, using chocolate coins and candy cigarettes. But just be sure you don’t pull out those candy cigarettes at a restaurant in Omaha. You don't want tolight up the phones at the 911 center.
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19 comments:
while I agree that terry will probably win the 2nd district, I disagree with the odds that you placed on the race. Given the national political climate that is abundant and the fact the Jim Esch is doinga alot of get-out-the-vote campaigning. The republican base is somewhat demoralized and the democrats are fired up, and of course the independents are going to vote democrat. I think this race will be closer than most anticipate...
by the way, love the seperated at birth photos...
What exactly are the "democrats fired up" for? A political novice with no campaign in the 2nd District? The Democrat nominee for governor? A Democrat Senator that votes pro-life, pro-gun, pro-business, pro-Bush judicial nominees, anti-immigrant and pro-war (aka, everthing the Democrat party is against)?
I have to disagree with security guard. The democrats in Nebraska have nothing to get fired up for in Nebraska. Now where can I place my bets?
scotch scotch scotch, scotchy scotch scotch
You may place your bets at the window in the room next to you.
I think the Lee Terry SAB is a hoot! It ranks right up there with "the Church Lady" SAB. Who would have thought that SNL would have such a stronghold in NE. As far as Jimmy's SAB, it's perfect, too. No one knows who Jim is and who the heck is this Josh kid?
Am I showing my age or what!?
What am I, the FEC, CQ and IMDB rolled into one?
C'mon Mom! As any 13 year old girl will tell you, Josh was in "Dead Poet's Society", that TV show "Sports Night" with the blonde on Desperate Housewives...oh, and that awful "Threesome" movie. And then he's been in some other stuff too, probably.
We said it was a tough one...
Other SABs for Terry:
Garrison Keillor
Stephen King.
SS, are you telling me this Josh person is an "old" guy? And, If it's not too much trouble, could ya' help me out with "IMDB". As I said, I am a mom, I am old, and I am just barely scratching the surface of the IM (I think it means instant message) lingo.
And, yes, I do remember Sports Night, but that must either be an old picture of him or he was a little kid on that show because he looks awfully young.
Now, I'll go take my antacid and leave the blogging to you young "whippersnappers"~!
S.S., I'm not going to pretend that Jim Esch is a sure winner, but your odds are ridiculous. Prepare to be stunned. Stunned into silence, hopefully.
Mom:
Internet
Movie
Data
Base
http://www.imdb.com, where you can find info on every actor in pretty much every movie. The greatest resource known to Hollywood and beyond.
Anonymous: this would have been a great suggestion, oh.. two DAYS ago!
Donny K:
We put up our odds. Let's see yours. And Silenced? We shall continue to speak freely loooong after Election Day!
Viva de Leavenworth!!!!
sorry SS, i've been busy listening to tapes of 'Thriller' and the 'Monster Mash.'
still woulda liked a little Yeardley Smith.
You know, we put together the Moul-Yeardley Smith one, and in the end it got nixed, b/c we just didn't see the resemblance. From the suggested shot, there was a nice purple-purple match, but that was about it. Maybe we'll post on Tuesday...
could i interest you in an adrian smith and randy quaid SAB?
http://img.interia.pl/rozrywka/nimg/roz412540.jpg
http://www.joinadrian.com/
"Real tomata ketchup, Adrian?"
"ahhh, guilty as charged."
That could be Adrian Smith in like 20 years. But even better would be Quaid and Tim Russert!
To the Anonymous who started with "josh charles is waaaaaaaaay too hot for the jim comparison", I'm afraid we can't post the rest of your comment.
At least not without some photo evidence (or, preferably a YouTube video).
Feel free to amend and re-post.
My thoughts on the odds for this race:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
63% for an over under?? Out of your MINDS!!!!!!
63% is nearly the best Terry has ever done! Esch is a pro-life Dem! There is NO WAY he loses by 30 points!!!
You people have truly shown your political ignorance with this one. Couldn't you have made a REASONABLE prediction?
I'm looking forward to the Wednesday post. I expect to see a picture of a guy on leavenworth street with a broom desperately trying to retrieve his foot from his stomach.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH 63%.....thanks for the laugh.
Uh, FYI, Lee Terry's general election results have been as follow:
1998: 65.5%
2000: 65.8%
2002: 63.3%
2004: 61.1%
Now, we certainly invite comments or criticism or whatever regarding the Odds we've posted. But please, if you disagree, let's hear YOUR predictions.
538.com's most recent 2nd District poll shows that Terry is in the fight of his political life. The fact that his situation (and Obama's, too, in Nebraska's 2nd district)) was discussed in some detail this A.M. on NBC's "Meet the Press" and that their own, more recent polling, shows that the race is "too close to call", speaks volumes about what's going on here. Terry ran for re-election last time under far better circumstances for him than the one he faces now and THAT election was surprisngly close. If Obama carries the 2nd district, and, he may very well, you can kiss Terry goodbye as Esch will get swept in on Obama's coat-tails. The notion of Terry getting anything remotely approaching 70% of the vote is laughable in the extreme. He should consider himself lucky IF he just wins the election at all. If the turnout is as big as they say it might be, that does not bode well for Terry, either. What color is the sky in your world? Sheesh..............
Hey Roy, if you come back, note the year...goofball...
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