In case you missed 'em...

Just a bunch of backtracking here.

First, John from Omaha sent in a pic from the Inauguration of one of our Congressman. After that, we decided to track the rest of them down.

There are a couple of high-resolution photo sources from that day -- Gigapan and Photosynth. Each provide shots from the Inauguration, though at a couple of different angles.

So first we give you Nebraska's two Senators (circled in red):

You can see that E. Ben Nelson, being the senior Senator, got the better seats that day. 

Though simply being in "The Club", as is new Senator Mike Johanns, got you a pretty sweet view.

Then there's Nebraska's House delegation (circled in red).

Starting from the back, you can see Adrian Smith, sporting the shades. [From the comments section: Congresman Smith looks like he's got 10,000 marbles stashed in a briefcase, to unleash on the parade route. "Off that mailbox! That's government property!"] 

Jeff Fortenberry with the natty white scarf.  (A funny Onion-esque parody news story featuring Fort here.)

And then, there's Lee Terry. (This was the original shot sent to us.) Lee got the best seats of the bunch. And Lee...well...we're not sure if he was going to be hunting wabbitts later or what.  

(As John from Omaha asked, "Could he even hear?")

But at least if he was going to emulate someone, it was a former President.

***

The Omaha World Herald, oozing once more from the sturdy news steward into the sarcasm and gossip biz, gives us this update: 

State Treasurer Shane Osborn is not, repeat NOT, going to move to the First Congressional District and take on Jeff Fortenberry in a 2010 primary.

(Sorry, but did ANYONE think this would really be likely? Show of hands?)

***

And KMTV's Joe Jordan reports that "Nellie" is raising cash for his 2012 Senate run. Nelson will be 71 yeas old in 2012, so that would make him a Spring Chicken in the U.S. Senate terms. He's saying maybe he'll run, maybe he won't.

But hey, even we here on Leavenworth Street realize that 2012 is a looooong way off, in political terms. Now that won't stop those who are interested from getting themselves prepped. (And new GOP Chair Mark Fahleson is.)

But do we really want to start talking about 2012 right now?
You do?
OK, well, then have at it.

HDTV - Daub on the air

Hal Daub is on the air with this first ad of the 2009 Mayoral campaign. It is entitled, "Hal Daub: We Need Him Now."

Take a look here:



Not a bad piece, going back to Daub's initial presser on the crime issue. We'd argue that Daub is being more specific than his opponents as far as spelling out his plan, and this ad hits some of those elements.

One point where Daub has a big advantage on either Jim Vokal or Jim Suttle is that he doesn't have to waste air time introducing himself to voters. He is able to talk about his proven record, without trying to spell out where he's lived, what he's done, etc. etc.

***

One thing we found interesting was the last image used of Daub smiling. We've seen it before. Where?
In Daub's ad in 2007 for the U.S. Senate.

Here are images from each.


And here's the 2007 ad, so you can remember.



(Now just so long as his ad guys don't flip the images, we'll be OK....)

***

Channel 7 did a story on the Jim Vokal poll from the other day. Daub's campaign manager Brinker Harding said, "It was an internal poll and we don't give a lot of credibility to his internal poll." Harding then made an interesting attack on the ad: It breaks the law.

Harding cited LB720 (now Neb.Rev.Stat. 49-1474.02) that when disseminating a "prerecorded message" the sender "shall include, immediately preceding the message, the name of the person making the expenditure".

Vokal put his name a the end of the poll, instead of at the beginning.

But the counter argument here (at least as we see it) is that it's a "poll" and not a "message". Is a question ("Who ya gonna vote for?") the same as a statement or request ("Tom Smith is the best. Vote for him.")?

Interesting question. Now will Jim Vokal have to spend another $28K to clear this one up?

Mayor's race a dead heat?

The battle for the Omaha Mayor's office is already a bitter battle -- well here on Leavenworth Street anyway.

Mention anything about the race and the commenters come out with who's ahead, who's behind, who's the worst person imaginable -- pretty standard internets stuff though.

But the other day, a frequent L. St. commenter, "3rd Floor Watcher", came out with this little nugget, in response to a pro-Vokal comment:

Here is the poll numbers buddy, Hal 41% Suttle 23% Vokal 21%.

Our reaction was, Wow, that's pretty detailed info. Wonder where he/she got it?

Well, our efforts to get that answer were unproductive.

But all this wasn't ignored by the Jim Vokal campaign. Somewhat in response to these statements, last night Vokal conducted an "interactive voice response" , or Flash Survey of Omaha voters. Essentially, people are called and get a "press 1 for Vokal, press 2 for Daub, press 3 for Suttle" poll. 

(Full details and full questions follow.)

In any case, of 2,369 respondents, it looked like this:

Vokal: 39.4%
Daub: 38.0%
Suttle: 22.4%

Now, what is interesting about this poll, for you readers, is that the Vokal camp sent us the ENTIRE survey, the results, everything. So, you can (and no doubt will) quibble with the polling methods and some of the data. For instance, the party breakdown of the respondents went something like this:

Republican: 43%
Democrat: 34%
Independent: 20%

Last time we checked this isn't how Omaha breaks down. Also, it isn't clear that the names were rotated, so we'll assume they weren't. Also, there's no gender breakdown.

But, the point of the Vokal camp wasn't to so much get a perfect poll as to make their case that the supposed Daub poll numbers are off. And according to Vokal, they're WAY off.

So, below, we're putting, in the post, all the info Vokal gave to us.

Feel free to duke it out on all aspects, but note this: With Hal Daub likely going on the air with his ads very soon (possibly any minute) this race is very likely, very close.

Read on.

***
Vokal for Mayor
Flash Survey
January 22, 2009
GREETING
Hello, my name is Marie with MP Research and we are conducting a very short, 4 question survey about the upcoming race for Mayor. This will only take a moment – let’s begin!
SURVEY
Q1. How likely are you to vote in the upcoming election for mayor? Are you very likely, somewhat likely, or not likely to vote?

For very likely, press 1.
For somewhat likely, press 2.
For not likely, press 3. [End call]
Q2. Do you consider yourself to be a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
For Republican, press 1.
For Democrat, press 2.
For Independent, press 3.

Q3. And if the election was held today, and you had to make a choice for mayor, for whom would you vote? Jim Vokal, Hal Daub, or Jim Suttle?
For Jim Vokal, press 1.
For Hal Daub, press 2.
For Jim Suttle, press 3.
Q4. Which of the following issues is would you say is most important for the next mayor to address? Violent crime, taxes and spending, economic development, or police and fire pensions?

For violent crime, press 1.
For taxes and spending, press 2.
For economic development, press 3.
For police and fire pensions, press 4.

CLOSINGThank you for participating in our survey! Good night!

This call paid for by Vokal for Mayor.
***

(Note: To follow the results below, look at the questions above.)

A special celebration

Ironic that today's Presidential Innaguration is so close to another special anniversary day huh?

No, not MLK Day, silly.

We're talking about Leavenworth Street's Third Birthday, that happened a couple days ago on the 17th!
(Yes, yes, thank you, thank you.)

And then today we have lots of bitter people today rejoicing that George Bush is leaving office.
It'll be interesting to watch them figure out how to channel their bitterness now....

***

Last week Joe Jordan did a story on Jim Vokal and his discussion with the Omaha Chamber of Commerce regarding his plans for the fire department if elected Mayor.

First some background on all of this:

Vokal, and the other Mayoral candidates spoke to the Omaha Chamber of Commerce regarding their plans for the gig. The interviews were tape-recorded, then transcribed and sent to the candidates and chamber members in a packet marked "Confidential".

And then Joe Jordan, remarkably, got his hands on it. (Ya know, why even bother with the faux-secretiveness?)

Anyway, in the interview Vokal gave the following response regarding the fire department:

"A reduction in staffing will be expected once I take office because callback will be eliminated as well as sending six fire personnel to non-emergency calls."

Sometime later, the Vokal camp sent out a message to the Firefighters' Union saying, Vokal "did not support any staffing reductions."

So, Joe Jordan has hopped on these statements yelping, Conflict! Conflict!

And, to their detriment, the Vokal camp decided to not comment any more on this to Jordan.

So is this a conflicted statement? We have to say, no.

We discussed this via email with the Vokal camp and here's what they say:

1) "Callbacks" -- overtime paid to off-duty firefighters called back to work so it can maintain minimum staffing levels -- will likely be eliminated.

2) Sending 6 firefighters to non-emergency calls will likely be eliminated.

Vokal feels that both #1 and #2 will happen during the next Mayor's administration.

Therefore, there will be a reduction in staffing, based upon those two factors. (Note here, however, that we understand that the Firefighters' Union does not consider either #1 or #2 as a "staffing reduction", though that is how Vokal referred to them in the interview.)

However, those two issues are different from the issue of minimum staffing levels -- how many firefighters on a truck for an emergency call. And Vokal has said, per his letter to the Union, that he does not support reduction in that staffing -- and Daren Bates, the head of the Union says that he's comfortable that Vokal wouldn't cut minimum staffing. 

Follow all that?

Well, we're sure that commenters will pick the nits out of it all, but we find that it makes sense.

Now, why the Vokal camp chose not to have that discussion with Jordan before he ran his story, we don't know. It seems like a pretty reasonable matter to go into, but whaddayagonnado.

In the mean time we do not know what the Daub or Suttle camps positions are on the issue of firefighter staffing.

***

Van, we hardly knew ye!

In case you didn't know, Van Argyrakis dropped out of the Mayor's race over the weekend.

Well, at least good for him of knowing the difference between a dragon and a windmill.

Heineman will endorse Daub

Leavenworth Street has learned that, sometime before the April 7th primary, Governor Dave Heineman will very likely endorse Hal Daub for Mayor of Omaha.

(Note: This is an official rumor, and has not been confirmed by either the Governor's office or the Daub campaign.)

While it is somewhat unusual for the head of the state party to pick sides among Republicans in a contested primary (City Councilman Jim Vokal is also a Republican), this likely endorsement is not all that surprising.

Heineman was Hal Daub's Chief of Staff in his Washington, D.C. Congressional office back in the 80's. The two are considered to be close politically, if not personally, and if would nearly be a slap at Daub if Heineman didn't endorse him.

You may also remember that Daub very suddenly dropped out of the Senate race back in 2007 to clear the way for Mike Johanns. At the time, former Senator Bob Kerrey was seriously thinking about renouncing his New York citizenship and attempting to become a Nebraska Senator again.  The party big wigs very much wanted an easy race for Johanns and Daub, and Jon Bruning, dropping out made it so.

Daub ended his very brief run with a fair amount of grace and deference to Johanns. One wonders if there may have been any handshakes on who would promise to support Daub in future runs.

Nonetheless, an endorsement from the very popular Governor couldn't hurt Daub in what could very well turn out to be a close race.

***

The other side of that rumor is that there are "other state office holders" who will also endorse Daub. That also goes as, "they will stay silent in the primary, but REALLY support Daub."

We've heard that and are very suspect about it.

Would a, say, Attorney General Jon Bruning support Daub? Maybe in the General against Jim Suttle -- but would he take sides against Vokal? And how about State Treasurer Shane Osborn?

It's interesting to note that both Bruning and Osborn have been or will likely be clients of Vokal campaign manager Jordan McGrain. Now it's not totally unlikely that they would go against another of McGrain's clients. But the loyalties within the party can run deep (see Heineman and Daub) and we would be surprised if either of those office-holders sided with Daub -- silently or publicly-- against Vokal in the Mayoral race.

[Update 10:25 AM

We received word from a person close to Shane Osborn that Osborn has a political team already lined up for any future runs and that McGrain is not a part of that team.

We await any further corrections...]

[Update 3:45 PM

The line we're getting now is that McGrain is a "friend and advisor" to Osborn.  Frankly we won't know what any of that means until he actually gears up a campaign, but add it however you like to the above commentary, which was the purpose in the first place... ]

***

Speaking of McGrain, we heard from him after the "party-crashing" of Daub's crime-plan announcement.

Some have expressed that it was a d*** move for McGrain to show up at the Daub announcement. We know that some of the Daub people were unhappy about his showing-up. (The thought is that at most he should have sent a subordinate.)

But McGrain's side of it is that the Vokal camp had just done a release on the same subject and were planning commercials right away. McGrain says he knew that the TV stations and the paper would make a bee-line to Vokal after the Daub presser to get his reaction to Daub's plan. So, McGrain figured the fastest way to actually be able to see what Daub's plan was, was to go there himself.

We accept this reasoning, and as said before, don't think it's a big deal. But we also understand Brinker Harding's (Daub's manager) ire for McGrain showing up unannounced.

Annnd, McGrain also violated one rule of campaigning: Don't make the story be about you. It should always be about your candidate.

But it does make for a more interesting race...

OWH horns in on OUR turf

OK, OWH. We see where this is going.

You weren't happy with being the monopoly newspaper in the state -- buying up every state paper, save the LJS.

Now you're entering the satire realm as well -- OUR space?

That was the case over the weekend as the OWH's Paul Hammel reported on the Unicameral's purchase of seventy, brand-spanking-new MacBook Airs. You know, the really light ones that fit in a manila envelope?

Hammel gets to the basis of the Legislature's reasoning for the boffo new machines: they're really light!

Oh sure, they could have saved around 70 large by buying heavier laptops, but did you know how light these are?
Answer: Super light!

(And who needs a DVD drive, an ethernet port, more than one USB port, or a battery life over two hours? Not the Unicameral, that's who! Wait... what?)

By the way, the (NERD!) Iowa legislature is still stuck with (pfft!) PCs. Like you can even make cool YouTube videos with those! Ha!

Anywho, back to the OWH's Hammel who starts out his story with: "Does size really matter?"

Would this sort of double entendre have made it into the OWH back in Harold Andersen's day?
Dad-gumminy fiddle-faddle!

And speaking of YouTube, how about the OWH's online edition links to parody ads -- yes, YouTube parody ads -- of the MacBook Airs.
Three of 'em! You know, just in case you weren't clear on how stupid the OWH really feels the idea is.

What's next OWH? Links to PerezHilton?
(Is that for sale?)

***

According to the Washington Note, the rumors lately of Chuck Hagel shipping off as U.S. Ambassador to Japan, are just that.

Word has it that Hagel is not interesting in going to Japan. Or China. Or the U.K. Apparently doesn't want to move his family there.

Understandable. Besides, he's probably still hoping for that DOD job, once Gates leaves. (Though is it likely Obama will appoint another Republican to the post? We're doubting it...)

***

Congrats to new GOP Chairman Mark Fahleson who slam-dunked his way through the convention in Fremont.

Fahleson has said he is committed to "winning the technology war" in the communications department. This is a theme amongst the national party types, in how to leverage Web 2.0 for the GOP. There still is no consensus on how to aim that effort, but we're happy Mark is at least interested in focusing on it.

Many party types are still wringing their hands about the Obama victory in the 2nd District. While impressive, we still feel that this was a cult-of-personality win. Until the Dems accomplish something similar with a generic candidate, we're not going to get too hot and bothered about it.

That's not to say the GOP should sit back and wait for that to happen. The GOP needs to continue to modernize, and it looks like Fahleson understands that.

Welch won't run for Mayor

Outgoing City Council President, Dan Welch, will not run for Mayor of Omaha in 2009.

Welch responded to Leavenworth Street that:

"I have some professional obligations that I thought would be resolved by now. Unfortunately that has not happened.

As a result I can’t commit the kind of time that would be necessary to run an effective Mayoral campaign. I don’t expect that I will free up in time to make a bid."

Welch would certainly have made the race interesting, and it's possible there was still room for a fourth major candidate.

However, being the third, and last, Republican to get in would have hurt Welch's ability to raise the proper amount of funds for the race. Many contributors have already picked sides and it would have been difficult for Welch to raise the cash he needed.

We've felt that Welch really wanted to represent Nebraska's Second District in Congress, and had Jim Esch pulled it off in November, Welch would probably be raising money for a run for that office right now.

However, it would be extremely unlikely for Welch to challenge Lee Terry, so it waits to be seen where Welch goes next politically.

We wish him well and look forward to seeing him down the road.

Daub and Vokal: Toe to Toe

Hal Daub announced his crime plan yesterday, and Jim Vokal slashed back, with the two campaigns arguing who had the better plans.

Uh wait. We mean, three campaigns -- as Jim Suttle jumped in and did his best Beavis with a "Uh, yeah, me too!"

Hold it, we mean six campaigns. Six?

Sure, six. Daub, Vokal, Suttle, Van Argyrakis, Jerry Odom and Steve Scarle.
(Steve who?)
Steve Scarle.

But let's back up.

***

Did we say this was Daub vs. Vokal day? What we really meant was that this was Brinker Harding vs. Jordan McGrain.

McGrain, Vokal's campaign manager showed up at the Daub press conference. Harding, Daub's campaign manager wasn't thrilled.
(Though, when you get right down to it, it's not as if he showed up for a private meeting.)

In any case, while Harding may or may not have given McGrain the stink-eye, Hal offered Jordan a cup of coffee and laughed it off. (No word on whether there was any air in McGrain's tires when he walked back to his car.)

But McGrain crashing Daub's party was only part of the fun.

First this all goes back to Daub's Seven-Point-Plan to reduce crime in Omaha -- or as Daub called it, "A war on domestic terrorism."

And Daub is taking a page from the Bush post 9/11 strategy and proposes establishing an Omaha "Hometown Security Commissioner" (a/k/a "Gang Czar") in the police department. (Uh, "Hometown"?)

Anywho, Daub's plan (short form) is as follows:

1. Use Federal racketeering laws more aggressively against gangs
2. Create leadership position to focus on reducing violent crime
3. Tougher state laws
4. City funds to sustain truancy and after-school programs
5. Implement zero tolerance policy
6. Develop veteran officer retention program
7. Increase officer presence on the street

[By the way, when a candidate announces a plan, is it too much work for the media organizations to post the whole plan on their websites? We're not sure if anyone did this back when Vokal announced his budget plan. As far as we can tell, only WOWT posted a copy of it on their website. Isn't this the sort of thing news organizations are supposed to be doing? So, here at least, is a link to Daub's campaign website that gives a full on detailed account of his plan.]

And, if you missed the news, here are all the media links for this story:
Coverage by:
KETV (with huge video!)
* Daub
* the other FIVE candidates
KMTV
WOWT

KPTM

OWH

***

The other candidates responded to the press with their own proposals.

Vokal disagrees with the idea to propose a Gang Czar, saying Omaha doesn't need another layer of bureaucracy. He also talked about "Building Bright Futures" and other community based programs.

Jim Suttle, who, by the way, said he has been planning to run for Mayor since the day he was elected to the City Council, said his proposal for fighting gang violence was to reduce unemployment.

Yup, that's it.

A major candidate for the office, who has had nothing but time to come up with something, and his idea for stopping the murders is that people need more jobs. Thanks Mr. Suttle.

***

But hey, look at Channel 7 talking to ALL the candidates!

After the Big 3, they chatted with:

4) Van Argyrakis (who apparently didn't have time to shave or comb his hair) -- more police and more jobs;
5) Jerry Odom -- better education; and
6) Steve Scarle (who may or may not have just gotten done with a production of "Hair!") - wants tax incentive to bring in factories for low-skill jobs.

Nice hustle by KETV for getting them all in there (now Rob McCartney, wipe that smirk off your face!).

***

But our highlight for the day was the back and forth between the Daub and Vokal camps.

As Daub was getting ready to announce their plan, McGrain and Team Vokal shot this across their bow:

"There have actually been fewer homicides these past six years than the six years Hal Daub was mayor. Hal had his chance to control the violence and didn’t get the job done."

Brinker Harding of the Daub camp, a little pissed fired back with this:

"It is unfortunate that Jim Vokal has begun his campaign for mayor with a negative attack on Hal. Mr. Vokal's attempt to play games with crime statistics is sad....

Where was Councilman Vokal on combating violent crime while he has been on the Council for the last seven years? It's only now that he is a candidate for mayor that he has come forward with any ideas...

The facts are as follows: homicides during Hal's years as mayor dropped from 41 to 25. Although the murder rate during Vokal's eight years on the City Council went up 61%, our campaign will not try to affix blame for that on our current elected officials.

I am confident that voters will judge each candidate on the quality of their ideas and not on the bite in their political attacks."

When Joe Jordan asked Vokal if he was playing with the numbers, Vokal responded:

"Well the totals are the totals and I'm not going necessarily to get into going back and forth."

And then when McGrain showed up at the Daub HQ, Harding asked McGrain if he was responding to Harding's phone calls -- which he said hadn't been returned -- regarding debates. (Ah, touché!)

***

But while Daub may have scored a nice one-day media win, Vokal is now on the air with his ads, addressing this exact topic. Does Vokal then gain the high-ground ? You gotta say yes -- at least until the other candidates go on the air.

But things are rolling now. And if this campaign doesn't resort to lie detector tests and urine samples in the end, we are going to be severely disappointed.

But, you know, so far, so good.

JV-TV: Vokal camp comes out swinging

The Jim Vokal for Mayor campaign is on the air.

First, lets hit the two ads that Vokal is releasing today.

They start with an intro spot called, "Pretty Face". This is apparently in reference to the GQ features that Vokal was born with (har har). Take a look.



We don't mind these intro pieces, as Vokal does need to say hello to voters who don't know him yet. But we're not crazy about the idea of using his wife for the entire ad (and the corny, "Whoops, I was just getting myself some coffee, were you filming an ad?"). Who are we voting for here, Jim or Mrs. Vokal? (In the end, it's probably fine...)

The second ad is entitled "29", which is meant to represent the twenty-nine known gangs in Omaha. See it here:



This piece is really more about the message it sends than the content. (As, for one thing, it's very difficult to read the graphics at the beginning anyway.)

The Vokal campaign, and likely the others as well, know that the violence is one of the top, if not the number one issue on the minds of Omahans. The ad lets them know that Vokal is on top of it and that he's a serious candidate, right out of the box.

***

Of course the other fact is that Vokal is now the first candidate to hit the airwaves, and gets to have his initial message dominate the campaign -- with the Primary less than 100 days away.

And who does the Vokal camp hit here as well? Hal Daub of course.

In a release this morning, Vokal campaign manager Jordan McGrain, said:

"There have actually been fewer homicides these past six years than the six years Hal Daub was mayor. Hal had his chance to control the violence and didn’t get the job done. Jim Vokal will bring the fresh ideas and new perspective needed to get results.”

With "Vokal" adding:

“I respect Hal Daub and his contributions to Omaha, but his crime plan is eight years too late. It’s time for him to step aside and give a new mayor the chance to lead.”

And you were wondering if any punches were going to be pulled?

You will remember Vokal's manager McGrain as Attorney General Jon Bruning's campaign manager for Bruning's brief Senate run (and as our GOP convention correspondent). McGrain didn't have any problems pounding Mike Johanns back then and doesn't have any problem tossing hay makers at Daub now.

And this comes on the day that Daub will be introducing his own crime plan to the city (at 9:30 this Monday morning).

Daub may even have a more detailed plan, but will it get lost in Vokal's media campaign?

We wait to find out.

***

By the way, as you can see by the opening credits to the ads (which were forwarded to us by the Vokal campaign), the spot was produced by the ad firm Dresner Wickers.

They were the firm that Jon Bruning used for his Senate campaign intro ad (see it here) as well as the firm used by Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee -- with the famous Chuck Norris ad here.