A new Rasmmussen telephone survey indicates that if the 2012 U.S. Senate election were held today, pitting Republican Nebraska Governor Dave Heineman against incumbent Democrat Senator Ben Nelson, the results would look like this:
Heineman 61%
Nelson 30%
Wow.
Two things:
1) This is ALL due to Nelson's recent antics and support of ObamaCare in the Senate; and
2) 2012 is a looooooooooooooooooooooooong way off.
But don't kid yourselves, this has Ben Nelson shaken up. How to tell?
He's filming TV ads in Omaha today, in order to try to tourniquet the massive political bleeding.
Is it too late? Of course not. In fact, it's awfully early, for paid TV anyway.
But look at the rest of Nelson's numbers, from Rasmussen:
Nelson Favorable: 40% (12% VERY favorable)
Nelson Unfavorable: 55% (34% VERY UNfavorable!)
And another big reason for Nelson to be jumpy:
Even if Nelson were to vote to block ObamaCare, if the election (against Governor Dave) were held today:
Heineman: 47%
Nelson: 37%
Nelson (who continues to raise money for 2012) has already been called the "the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in 2012". But he can certainly turn this around in the next two years.
But it continues to indicate that it will be more and more difficult for DEMOCRAT Nelson to be a "conservative independent" when there's a liberal Democrat in the Oval Office who needs his support.
And potentially facing giant slayer David (Heineman) doesn't help.
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68 comments:
Wow. Given these poll ###s, is Tom White still proudly 'standing' with EBN?
Excellent point, that we should have thrown in (dammit!).
-Ed.
30 points down for a historically high approval number incumbent is a major political catastrophe. You don't just fall off the cliff like that unless you have betrayed the voters trust.
ouch...
Still think Nebraskans are laughable EBN?
"This is all orchestrated," Nelson said Sunday. "It's so thinly disguised ... it's almost laughable.”
Tom White has a difficult time standing with anything for very long.
If Governor Dave can beat GOD (T.O.) then how can he not beat EBN. So let it be written, so let it be done.
Unfortunately, this poll does not matter. The Democrats are committed to geting healthcare passed and they do not care if they even lose control of Congress over it. They want to get across that finish line and let the power of the bureaucracy take care of the rest. Nelson is 100% committed to that vision. He knew Nebraskans were against Obamacare and he still voted for it. Representative government my ass.
As for the comments about Tom White, I have to ask who you people are talking about. If it weren't for this blog, I would have never heard of him.
Even Jim Suttle could poll higher than Nelson against Heinemann.
Will Heineman sign a pledge that he will serve a full term if he is re-elected in 2010? If not, why should Nebraska voters reward him with another term?
If he wants to seek Nelson's Senate seat, he should not seek re-election as Governor.
So, what's it gonna be Dave?
It seems 61% of the voters want Dave to be a Senator and replace the tyrant in office. Don't sign the pledge. It is the will of the people.
In 2012, Heinemann would have served 8 years as a popular Governor. He should use that experience in the US Senate.
EBN's going to be on KFAB for an hour later today (5:00). Should be fun to see what he has to say.
Nelson has another poll given to him by the White House or the Democratic Senatorial Committee. Why is he filming commercials BEFORE Rassmussen released his poll. OWH and LJS are you listening??? Ask Ben if he has other numbers.
As I posted previously, you got confirmation that Nelson is running again in 2012 by the day after his "historic" vote (and $100 million payoff) when he tried to spin it as the "Heineman exemption". Now you don't think good ol' uncle Ben doesn't know Dave Heineman is likely to kick his butt back to the turkey farm???
I thing Ben Nelson has guts for going against the grain and doing what is best for the Country and not just some local parochial interests.
Wasn't Dave Heinemann an Eagle scout and an Army Ranger? We could easily reshape the head of a statue our community has planned. It's probably not that hard to shave off a little hair on top and the nose.
Hey Proud EBN Supporter, the entire country is against Obamacare. Or does the entire country qualify as local parochial interests? And BTW, excuse me for looking out for my family. Obamacare is going to ruin my family's healthcare. It's going to bankrupt the country. And for what? So that we can go from 90% of Americans with health insurance to 94% of Americans with health insurance? Obamacare is not about getting more Americans insured. It's not about saving money on healthcare. It's about control, pure and simple, and Nelson is all for it. So it's probably good that you're proud of Senator Nelson and I hope you like him a lot, especially now that he has a very keen interest in your very personal business. He wants to make sure you don't get a harmful tan, or buy fattening food from the vending machine, or get an unnecessary mammogram. That's what he's interested in and he sees nothing wrong with it. Probably because he thinks you're an ignorant child. So be proud of him. There is nothing that is not related to your health and Ben Nelson just made it his business.
WHERE ARE THE CROSSTABS? WHERE ARE THE CROSSTABS? WHERE ARE THE CROSSTABS? WHERE ARE THE CROSSTABS? WHERE ARE THE CROSSTABS? WHERE ARE THE CROSSTABS?
Give me a break. Rasmussen has been skewing polls all over the country. They have lost nearly all credibility as a pollster.
Thats Right Anonymous above, everyone just Loves Ben Nelson...Keep dreaming and start answering the phones at the senate office.
With impeccable timing, Rosa, er, I mean, Jane Kleeb has a post up on another site (you know which one) whining about last week's poll that indicated 67% of Nebraskans oppose so called health care reform. And certainly the question in that poll was written in a way likely to provoke a negative response.
Unfortunately, in this latest poll, Nebraskans answered this question:
Generally speaking, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats?
with 64% opposing and 53% strongly opposing. There were only 35% in favor, split evenly between 'strongly' and 'somewhat'. Either health care reform has gotten even more unpopular in the last week, or the added statement about the deficit in the previous poll didn't matter.
Ms. Kleeb also came up with the following thigh-slapper:
Word to the GOP, only Nebraskans can vote and Nebraskans don't take kindly to outsiders telling them what to think or say.
How long is it since she blew in on an MTV film truck?
Tsk Tsk Jan Flemming Kleeb trashing poll results concerning health care, If I were were you I would focus on that tangled mess you have in which you call your hair.
Jane is nothing less than an outsider. You would think after her 5 years or so here with her 'cowboy' husband she would at least have somewhat of a pulse on Nebraska politics. If her and her husband haven't gotten it yet, it's probably not going to happen.
Jane,
Go back to spewing your liberal dribble on the news and leave Nebraska politics to those of us that actually understand the people of Nebraska.
And where is tom white on all of this? Still supporting ObamaCare? Or now is he going to do the politically convenient thing and back peddle?
Ian? We will await your response. If I am paying tax dollars for you to check this blog I at least deserve a response.
Just talked to a buddy in DC. These poll numbers are causing major waves. Don't let Ben Nelson tell you otherwise.
Crosstabs Annony...that is funny. Do you make that stuff up or does someone in Nelson's office give that to you?
We are missing one of the most crazy things Nelson has said or done. When he went to the floor after the outrage over the Cornhusker Kickback, he tried to say that this wasn't a special deal for Nebraska but that every state could ask for this too. Basically it was the other state's faults for not asking.
So Ben, the deal you made made the bill acceptable to you. On the floor you said the other states just needed to ask.
Here's the question. If the other states got the same deal that made the bill acceptable to you it would cost at least 49 times more in Medicaid supplements than Nebraska is slated to receive, or at least 4.9 trillion more.
Ben Nelson...would you have voted for this bill with that total spending? If not youlied on the floor and were clearlybought out.
Why pick on Ben? He's just being himself. Trying to play it all ways as usual except this time he got caught with the cameras on.
Off topic, but Karl Rove just gave his second wife a divorce. I guess that counts as Republican family values. Hoot, hoot!
bto,
you should be embarrassed!
I am in no sense of the word a biblical scholar, but my parents attempted to instill some sense of Christianity in me, as did my Methodist minister grandfather. They failed, but some of the things I learned are still committed to memory, or at least accessible to me through a good Google search.
One of the things I've been thinking about lately is how those of us "godless Democrats" are perceived by the oh-so-holy religious right. I guess my personal barometer for judging them in return is how well they follow the precepts of their own stated faith.
Therefore, I searched for those seven practices of Christian charity that, to me anyway, seemed to be requirements for those that call themselves "Christian." Here's what I found:
The seven practices of charity toward our neighbor, based on Christ’s prophecy of the Last Judgment, that will determine each person’s final destiny:
Feed the hungry
Give drink to the thirsty
Clothe the naked
Shelter the homeless
Visit the sick
Visit those in prison
Bury the dead
Now doesn't all that seem like a fairly "socialist" outlook? It does to me.
By the way, given the choice of riding the symbolic beast of the Democratic Party (a donkey) or that of the Republican Party (an elephant) to Bethlehem, which did Mary choose? And when Jesus rode into Jerusalem, evidently Hannibal's preferred ride was far from his mind.
Just something to think about.
"When it turns out there are no death panels, when there is no bureaucrat between you and your doctor, when the ways your health care changes seem like a good deal to you, and a pretty smart idea, when the American public sees the discrepancy between what really is, and what they were told by the Republicans, there will be a reckoning. There will come a day of judgment about who was telling the truth." - Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)
Anon 9:33,
Yeah, I guess Karl didn't give her the news on her deathbed as Newt Gingrich did one of his many wives. Now THAT is something you Republicans should be ashamed of, but instead you're talking about him being a serious candidate for president in 2012. Go figure!
who cares, Nelson is done.
BTO...we know your party is in trouble when that is the best you can bring. Thank you for playing!
Nothing about him voting for Pork before he voted against it? He changed his vote when he saw it didnt matter! Dont buy his BS!!
Phil:
Whitehouse forgot to add: ;..when the Tooth Fairy turns out to have been real after all, and Santa Claus is dating the Easter Bunny'.
When the government takes over management of a scarce resource, shortages and rationing are inevitable. All the opprobrium, a large part of it fake, heaped in the insurance companies, will be transferred to the government, and to the politicians who did this.
Like most Americans, I'm very happy with my current insurance. I'm holding the Democrats personally responsible for any changes. But, why, if it all gets better, I'll give you the credit.
Nelson's poll numbers might recover a little, once his shanaigans become less imminent int he public mind; but I bet you dollars to donuts his vote and the Cornhusker kickback a campaign issue in 2012, and it will be one his opponent uses.
Advice to EBN after hearing his one hour interview on KFAB yesterday. When you're in a hole, stop digging. It's readily apparent the even EBN doesn't believe the BS he's spouting about "health care reform" that he foisted on this country.
BTW BTO, bringing marital history issues into a discussion on EBN probably isn't a smart play.
Excellent point, Geouser.
I mean GeosUser.
Funny thing about truly progressive legislation: It tends to be relatively unpopular when enacted, but then universally accepted about a generation later.
Say, like: the Emancipation Proclamation (took a lot longer than a generation); Social Security; Civil Rights Act of 1964; Medicare; Americans with Disabilities Act.
When the ADA was being debated, I distinctly remember the howls from the U.S. Chamber and conservatives that the Act would "raise taxes" and "kill small businesses." Now, two decades later, can anyone deny that the ADA has transformed the lives of disabled Americans? By extension, the quality of life for non-disabled Americans is enriched by the everyday participation of our disabled fellow citizens.
Here's a fun quote for you: “It is socialism. It moves the country in a direction which is not good for anyone, whether they be young or old. It charts a course from which there will be no turning back.”—Senator Carl Curtis (R-NE), in 1965, opposing Medicare.
Like Curtis, Johanns and Heineman are on the wrong side of history, and their outrageous public statements on health care reform will be mocked by future generations of Nebraskans.
Sure, the Democrats will suffer some short term political consequences for health care. Long term, though, history will remember that it was the Democrats (once again) who fought for progress in this country.
On a final note, why do Rebulicans and conservatives only talk about deficits and the Constitution when they are out of power?
Happy New Year.
SS, do you have a copy of the 30 second ad that Nelson is running during tonight's game? Despite the desparation of the move, the stupidity of trying to cram a 2000 page bill into a 30 second ad is breathtaking. The Journal Star website has some very laughable quotes from the ad. Among them: "I listened to you and took a common-sense approach to improve the bill." The only non-lies in that statement are "I" and "and." Also, "It will not add to the deficit." Other than the fact that it will when you take into account that the "savings" from the Medicare cut were counted twice, shoring up of the doctors' reimbursement was moved to a separate bill, and the simple fact that no government entitlement program has ever come in on time and underbudget. This is a bonehead move on Nelson's part. He will make sure that all Nebraskans will know what he did, and what he did is indefensible.
NE Voter, you are confusing a monopoly with popularity. When you have no other choice, because the government has bankrupted the other choices, I guess you can say it was universally accepted. And since you are throwing the Emancipation Proclamation in there, which was signed by a Republican President, I'll feel free to point out that for decades, in the Soviet Union, communism was universally accepted. In Germany, Nazism was universally accepted. The beauty of progressive legislation is that it takes on a life of its own and it strangles individual freedom. Unlike its Soviet and Nazi brothers, of course, American progressivism uses bureaucrats rather than firing squads, to get people to do things, but the outcome is still the same. I do find it interesting, though, that this particular piece of progressive legislation, Obamacare, uses the threat of prison to effect its "universal acceptance."
And one last thing, I distinctly remember the Democrats screeching about Bush's $400 billion a year deficits in the run up to 2004. Now that we're at $1800 billion a year, the silence, some may say hypocrisy, from the Left is deafening.
Macdaddy -- I win.
Godwin's law.
LOL.
"I swear to God I'm going to pistol whip the next guy who says, " Shenanigans."
Its from a movie, calm down everybody!
Ben's prime-time advertisement during tonight's Holiday Bowl game reminds me of the old adage, "If you are getting run out of town, get out front and make it look like a parade."
Sorry, NE Voter, you don't. You threw the race card first.
Mac -- Citing historic laws is not "playing the race card."
BTW, I forgot to add the Voting Rights Act.
HMMM Don Walton makes Drudgereport with a story on Nelson's poll numbers,,,the Heralds says nothing about the poll numbers. Interesting.
BTO:
You said:
The seven practices of charity toward our neighbor, based on Christ’s prophecy of the Last Judgment, that will determine each person’s final destiny:
Feed the hungry
Give drink to the thirsty
Clothe the naked
Shelter the homeless
Visit the sick
Visit those in prison
Bury the dead
Now doesn't all that seem like a fairly "socialist" outlook? It does to me.
My response:
Actually, no it is not socialist. As you mentioned it is called charity. Jesus and God inspire people to perform acts of charity, they do not force them to. And those with Christ in their hearts strive to do many charitable deeds. Hospitals were once mainly run by churches and other Godly organizations..Alegent Health is still a Christian based health system.
Socialism is FORCED charity.
And chairty comes in all forms...I am a single mom who receives nothing from my child's father..I don't have extra money or time, but I donated my maternity clothes to a women's pregnancy center, I donated formula I received that my daughter could not have, I have donated some of her clothes, I have traded baby clothes among a group of women as money is tight for all of us (yes, that counts...I could've sold them at a garage sale and made some cash), I recently purchased the wrong size of diapers for my daughter ($40 worth) and instead of returning them, I am taking them to either Lydia House or Open Door Mission.
My point is (after rambling) that charity--taking care of people- comes from the heart because people are inspired to do so. To "legislate" charity through socialistic legislation is like trying to legislate morality. It's saying "We can tell you how to take care of others and that you have to give," but we can't tell you "No nakedness or sexual implications on tv."
And to all those who keep bringing up mutliple marriages etc of republicans...we all fall short of the Glory of God, but it still has nothing to do with the fact that Sen. Nelson sold us out and did nott represent the majority of Nebraskans.
Oh, and the Rasmussen Report was the most accurate when it came to predicting Obama's win and by how much ;) I suppose it was credible then??
"Hi I'm Ben Nelson, I just want to let Nebraskans know that Dave Heinemann made me do it abd GO BIG RED!!" Paid for by the SEIU
EBN is really a piece of work...does he realize he is treading on sacred ground when he "adverlies's" on television tonight during a Husker Bowl Game? He is only going (pardon the French)...to piss off a large number of people...that are already pissed off at him...even more.
I guess when you are up to your ass in alligators it's hard to remember your primary objective was to drain the swamp...which in this case was to represent the majority of the folks he represents back home...not Obama/Reid/Pelosi and their Liberal Tribe of Misguided Souls.
Give it up Ben...more excuses only increases the confirmation of your your guilt...admit it...you sold out. You are done...go home and polish your statue because I have a feeling it is going to be frequently encrusted with egg and vegetable matter.
Sen Nelson seems to have forgotten the saying "When in a hole stop digging"!
However, in his case keep on digging. It will provide the perfect spot for your future political platform.
"Betrayed"
That one word from the NRTL sums the entire issue up best.
Anon 10:08,
YOU have brought nothing. So how is THAT better?
GeosUser,
I think you have mistaken me for a Ben Nelson fan. I think you would be surprised to know that I am probably on his Top-10 S*** List. But then, I may just be over-inflating my own ego as "A Believer" did with all that self inflicted back patting above.
BTO:
Self inflicted back patting?!?!? Uh, NO. YOU introduced the conversation of what chairty is...I gave an explanation along with examples. Plain and simple.
For you to try and personally attack me just shows I got under your skin and was correct with my statements.
But, go ahead and throw another attack out there...it's what you do best.
Suggest that Nelson's ad firm slug it: "Betrayed"
Clone of EBN=Tom White
A Deluded Believer,
Yes, self-inflicted back patting ... Don't throw your back out trying for that reach-around.
Like I said, I'm hardly a biblical scholar, but I think your God and Jesus expected more of you than merely "being inspired" to do deeds of charity. As a matter of fact, I think its supposed to be a requirement, isn't it?
But, you folks that want to inflict your "morals" on all the things you DON't want the rest of us to do, don't want to be fettered by having the government involved in the things you are supposedly tasked with by your God ... charity, for example. You always bitch about how the government is taking away your money. And that is what it really comes down to. You hate the idea of socialism because it threatens your tendency towards greed. So tell me, where does your God stand on the issue of greed?
You have no problems with legislating morality, but legislating "charity" is SOCIALIST? I happen to think that one of the purposes of a government is to ensure the safety and HEALTH of its citizens. If that makes me a socialist, then I'm a socialist. I guess the alternative would be for me to be anti-social.
You wrote, "Hospitals were once mainly run by churches and other Godly organizations." What kind of drugs are you taking that caused you to hallucinate THAT?! Where is the evidence to back up such a ridiculous statement?
The reason we liberals keep bringing up the multiple marriages, and public restroom gay sex, of Republicans is because we're sick and damned tired of being pointed out as heathens ... by heathens! If you all really believe that we've all fallen short of the "Glory of God," then quit acting like you alone have a monopoly on redemption and morality.
BTO:
What I observe is that the government is much more inefficient and bureaucratic in providing services than private enterprise and charity. A quick example is Boys Town. A Catholic based charity that I think does way more good for children that the foster care system.
Why would Heineman want to be a U S Senator? Especially in the party of the minority with not a lot of hope it won't be for a very long time.
Is Heineman term limited after his next race?
Maybe he would be looking for a job. But I can't see Dave as a legislature after he has been an executive.
I do see Heineman as a candidate for President of the United States though.
Think about it; makes sense; I think he could do it. Or maybe V P.
ricky from omaha
@Anonymous 3:20
That is where you would be wrong, at least in the healthcare debate. Medicare operates on a 2 or 3 percent overhead, meaning 97 or 98 cents on the dollar that gets paid in gets returned to direct patient care. Other contries with a single-payer system have similar results. With private insurance it's in the ballpark of 19 to 25 percent.
Well that may be all well and good to operate at 3% but it doesn't matter if you pay out more than you take in like medicare, and social security do.
I think Ricky is drunk.
BTO:
First,you are not required by God to do anything. He gave us free will, and it is up to us to open our hearts to Him and allow the Holy Spirit to motivate us to do charitable things as well as follow His guidance on how to live. For example, we are not supposed to have sex before marriage. However, many do and you know what...If you seek His forgiveness, it is given to you. If you keep seeking Him, you will be less tempted to do something He says is not right.
The only thing we are "required" to do in order to spend eternity with Him is to seek His forgiveness and accept it when we fall down.
I never said I had no problems with legislating morality. Re-read what I wrote. I compared legislating morality to legislating charity as an example of how some people claim it is okay to legislate one and not the other, when it is clearly the same type of legislation.
My statement that hospitals were mainly run by churches and other Godly organizations is supported by this definition from Wikepedia:
A hospital is an institution for health care providing patient treatment by specialized staff and equipment, and often, but not always providing for longer-term patient stays.
Today, hospitals usually are funded by the public sector, by health organizations, (for profit or nonprofit), health insurance companies or charities, including by direct charitable donations. In history, however, hospitals often were founded and funded by religious orders or charitable individuals and leaders. Similarly, modern-day hospitals are largely staffed by professional physicians, surgeons, and nurses, whereas in history, this work usually was performed by the founding religious orders or by volunteers.
Also this from a website by Edward T. Babinski called "Origins of Hospitals."
It can be said, however, that the modern concept of a hospital dates from AD 331 when Constantine , having been converted to Christianity , abolished all pagan hospitals and thus created the opportunity for a new start. Until that time disease had isolated the sufferer from the community. The Christian tradition emphasized the close relationship of the sufferer to his fellow man, upon whom rested the obligation for care. Illness thus became a matter for the Christian church.
Heck, we're all heathens. And those who blame liberals for having the exclusive corner on that are not true Christians. When anyone: republican, democrat, liberal or conservative acts as a "heathen," a true Christian will pray, reach out etc and hope that person seeks the forgiveness of Christ.
Unfortunately, you do hear the "louder voices" of those who preach and truly do not have the faith--I can understand why people would be upset. But, I also don't hold the entire population of Christians as responsible for that...just as I don't hold the entire Muslim population responsible for the acts of terrorism on 9/11.
Oh, and changing my name was pretty immature of you. I enjoy debate as long as we can all play like adults. I have not name-called, nor acted angry. Although I did take a little swipe by saying you attack and that is what you do best.
For that, I do apologize. How about you?
OK, Believer ... deal.
I apologize for changing your name. It's a bad habit I have fun with ... tweaking the noses of the oh-so-many pompous asses I deal with on the blogs. I get called worse, and I'll admit there are times that I deserve it.
I would have to say it is sooooo easy to have little respect for the countless anonymii on the blogs. As you may note, I sign what I write because I think it is important to do so. As a result I get threats from numbskulls that find courage in their anonymity. I probably shouldn't be so judgmental of those who prefer to use their Clark Kents for that reason alone.
Hospitals, in the distant past, no doubt originated in religion based organizations. But, as you pointed out, Christians hold no monopoly there either. When Europe was deep in the Dark Ages, the Muslims in North Africa had universities, libraries, and hospitals that were the best in the world. Many of the medicines and procedures we use today were adopted from discoveries made in the non-Christian east. My point is that, at least in my lifetime, that hasn't been the case.
Perhaps, if hospitals and doctors were still motivated by the concept of Christian charity, rather than by the bottom-line oriented impetus of profit, we would have no need of government intervention in that sector. Unfortunately, as with most everything these days - even the prosecution of war, the incarceration of criminals, education, politics, etc. - the main driving force is money, money, and more money.
Although I am a self described heathen, I don't hold it against people who have religious beliefs, unless they are hypocritical about it or hurt others in the practice of their faith by carrying out jihads. America has suffered enough at the hands of the Christian jihadists that inflict a style of "Christianity" that Christ would be ashamed of. I think you hit the nail on the head with what you wrote about forgiveness. That's a concept that is foreign to far to many on the religious right. They ascribe things to Jesus that He never said, just as they ascribe things to the U.S. Constitution that were never written.
Thanks BTO..and happy New Year!
There is no way Tom White is a Clone of EBN! While EBN is finished here in Nebraska he at least had the voters support at one time. EBn was respected. Tom White couldn't carry EBN's jock strap. Let alone ever equal EBN. I have no love lost for EBN but heck on his worst day he is better then TW will EVER be.
Just clearing it up a bit.
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