We're going to start with the first majorly contested City Council race -- District 3.
We think this race is going to be close.
The candidates are:
Brian Buescher (R), Steve Cross (R), Jim Farho (D), Chris Jerram (D), Chip Maxwell (R), Crystal Rhodes (D).
We think this race comes down to three candidates, but it will be interesting to see how the others affect those three.
Brian Buescher, Chris Jerram and Chip Maxwell are our three top picks -- but only two get to advance.
Keep in mind this is Jim Vokal's current district. Vokal is a Republican and, as an incumbent, beat Anne Boyle back in 2005 for this seat. But make no mistake, this is a Democrat district.
So Chris Jerram would seem to have an edge, right? Well, maybe. Jerram's problem is that Jim Farho and Crystal Rhodes are Democrats fairly involved in their neighborhoods. Could those two peel off enough of Jerram's Democrat votes?
Note that in his mailers, "Democrat" is featured prominently for Jerram. And then there's all the "Green" talk that's gives many mid-town Dems a warm happy feeling. Jerram is no idiot in glomming onto that vibe.
Brian Buescher on the other hand is pushing for the "tough on crime" vote. That's an issues that gets to the heart of many in mid-town (or whatever the proper name is these days). Law and order is never a bad way to go.
And Buescher, like Jerram, has raised enough cash to help to get his message out.
And Chip Maxwell? He's really pushing his name ID in his old County Board district. His "A Name You Know and Trust" slogan, harkens us back to that crappy Eddie Murphy movie where Eddie's character had the same name as the former office holder and he ran for Congress as "the name you know", and won.
Not to say that Chip is any way comparable, but the lower funded Maxwell (as compared to Jerram or Buescher) has a bigger advantage in name ID, and absolutely has to ride that pony as far as we can. (And ouch!, that's some serious reading in the second piece. Definitely giving voters the benefit of the doubt that they'll read it.)
So who pulls this out?
Tough call.
It's tempting to just go with the top two funded candidates. But Maxwell's name ID will be tough.
We're going to pick Jerram and Buescher, just to make a call.
But it could easily be Jerram and Maxwell.
Or Buescher and Maxwell.
That's why they vote.
Many more predictions on ALL the races coming through the rest of the day (and hopefully completing them all before 5pm).
Come on back!
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18 comments:
First!!
Daub in a landslide. Jordan McGrain humiliated!
Please try to keep your comments to the race that is posted.
They're all coming very soon.
I think it will be Jerram and Buescher but Rhoades has been working hard, Maxwell has name ID, Farho is popular with some neighors,etc.
I say Marc Kraft comes out of nowhere and takes it from everyone!!
Is Jordan McGrain on the ballot somewhere?
I appreciate Chip's sense of humor, but I question the wisdom of joking that your son might not even vote for you.
I am the ballot!!!!
That you are Mr. McVain!!!
Every piece Republicans have received from Chris Jerram has been from "Democrat Chris Jerram".
Not sure Republicans will warm to Jerram when he is so in your face that he is a Democrat.
Vote splitting will be a key factor but it seems Buescher's message on crime and the police pension issue resonates with both Democrats and Republicans in mid-town. He even has a Green plan that both conservatives and Democrats like. Doesn't hurt that Buescher has knocked on over 6000 doors himself and had a complete grass roots campaign to boot.
So, who takes votes away from whom? Do Maxwell or Buescher take enough votes away from the other to slide Jarram and Rhodes in? Do the Dems split evenly and slide Maxwell and Buescher in?
I say it's Buescher, gaining a little cross party support and Jerram in the General.
The Distinguished Gentleman was NOT crappy - - can we PLEASE stop with all the negative remarks!
Sorry, but one of your points is factually incorrect and your exaggeration over the line (in these difficult litagatorial days...).
Note that in his mailers, "Democrat" is featured prominently for Jerram. And then there's all the "Green" talk that's gives many mid-town Dems a warm happy feeling. Jerram is no idiot in glomming onto that vibe.
pretty much describes me as a midtown voter all the way!
Just got an interesting mail piece from the Farho campaign on the qualifications/experience of Jerram. This is going to hurt Jerram badly on a district 3 hot button issue. Here's some of the text...
"It says 3 facts Jerram doesn't want you to know.
1. He defended pornography before the Nebraska Supreme Court in Main Street Movies v. Wellman, 257, Neb.559 (1999).
2) He defended problem bars like Cheaters and Claiborne Center. Source: Omaha City Council Hearing, Jan 13, 2009. He also sites a Omaha City Council Hearing, Sep. 23, 2008.
3) He defended a "problem convience store that doesn't pay property taxes."
Source: NE Liquor Control Commission Hearing, Aug 29, 2008.
It ends with "Is this the kind of experience we want on the city council?"
Who is Chris Jerram's law partner??? Follow the money!!!
That piece from Farho was a nasty attempt to smear another candidate, whether it is true or not. It shows that Farho is weak and lacks substance on his own to represent this district. The tactic tells more about him than his opponents.
Jerram's "record" as an attorney is fair game as is Buescher's. They both are very vulnerable in that area and both will receive further scrutinty if they survive the primary.
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