Word of a recent Presidential poll in Nebraska's 2nd District has gotten us thinking.
First of all, at this time we canNOT confirm anything about this poll. We don't have the cross-tabs, and it is purely on the word of people in the know, whom we trust. So, if that's not good enough for you, so be it, just ignore it. No problems here.
So we've been told that, in Nebraska's 2nd District...
McCain-Palin is up over Obama-Biden by 10%.
We've felt that way for a while now. But the noise about the Obama campaign seems to be swelling around Omaha, so what to make of it?
***
First let us look back at the Dem caucuses and then the Dem Primary.
Remember the Obama-thon at the Civic? Barack and Ben Nelson slow dancing? And then the caucuses came around and Dave and Dolly Democrat couldn't even get in the door to cast their piece of blue paper for Obama.
Obama beats Hillary 67% to 32%.
B.O. wins by 35% ! Ouch!
Butttttttt......
Then the Primaries came around. Where actual voters cast actual votes.
And Obama wins....but by less than 3%.
Hmm...
***
So when Obama dropped in fifteen "paid" campaign staffers (what are those wages?), we were at first impressed.
Then we saw that he opened an office! My, that's never been done in years, we are told.
But guess what?
Do you know how many offices Obama has in North Dakota?
Where is is behind John McCain (in some polls) by 14% ?
TWO offices.
And guess how many Obama offices there are in Montana?
Where Obama is behind McCain by 9% -- and has two fewer Electoral Votes than Nebraska?
Are you ready?
EIGHTEEN!!!!!
Eighteen offices !
Is Obama just spending money in Omaha because he has money to spend?
***
So anyway. We have no doubt that Obama is going to run ads in Iowa, a swing state, and will double up in the Omaha market.
And we can't doubt the enthusiasm of the Obamaniacs that showed up Wednesday night and disobeyed the cops and blocked traffic and whatnot.
But we are skeptical of Obama's real chances in the Omaha area. As a local political observer suggested to us, if Obama wins Omaha, it will be after he blew out McCain across the country, and didn't need the 2nd District's one vote anyway.
But we think (as of today) that it will be close nationwide. And that NE-2 goes for McCain.
***
So what does that mean for the Jim Esch campaign, and their Red to Blue money-money-money? Well, some have said that the DCCC could pump as much as $400K into each of their targeted races across the country.
However, what is more likely is that they will NOT spend their money proportionately. They will instead likely spend lots more on the big races, and just a little on the chance races -- like Esch's.
That's why Esch's fund raising email, that pointed out the Red to Blue designation, pleads for more money by September 30th. That way they may get some more -- maybe matched -- by the DCCC into their race. Can they get enough to make a difference on TV? We guess we'll see...
***
Finally, we happened to run across this Blair Witch-esque YouTube clip (via our Google reader).
It is Lee Terry giving an impromptu speech to supporters of H.R. 1279, which would "provide funds to States to enable them to increase the wages paid to targeted direct support professionals (i.e. home caregivers) in providing services to individuals with disabilities under the Medicaid Program".
We thought it was just interesting to see Terry standing out in the rain, pumping up non-Nebraska voters on an issue that he deems important. You probably won't see it in the news or even on campaign pieces, but this stuff does happen.
He's not the only one that does this, but there's one example, nonetheless.
We've felt that way for a while now. But the noise about the Obama campaign seems to be swelling around Omaha, so what to make of it?
***
First let us look back at the Dem caucuses and then the Dem Primary.
Remember the Obama-thon at the Civic? Barack and Ben Nelson slow dancing? And then the caucuses came around and Dave and Dolly Democrat couldn't even get in the door to cast their piece of blue paper for Obama.
Obama beats Hillary 67% to 32%.
B.O. wins by 35% ! Ouch!
Butttttttt......
Then the Primaries came around. Where actual voters cast actual votes.
And Obama wins....but by less than 3%.
Hmm...
***
So when Obama dropped in fifteen "paid" campaign staffers (what are those wages?), we were at first impressed.
Then we saw that he opened an office! My, that's never been done in years, we are told.
But guess what?
Do you know how many offices Obama has in North Dakota?
Where is is behind John McCain (in some polls) by 14% ?
TWO offices.
And guess how many Obama offices there are in Montana?
Where Obama is behind McCain by 9% -- and has two fewer Electoral Votes than Nebraska?
Are you ready?
EIGHTEEN!!!!!
Eighteen offices !
Is Obama just spending money in Omaha because he has money to spend?
***
So anyway. We have no doubt that Obama is going to run ads in Iowa, a swing state, and will double up in the Omaha market.
And we can't doubt the enthusiasm of the Obamaniacs that showed up Wednesday night and disobeyed the cops and blocked traffic and whatnot.
But we are skeptical of Obama's real chances in the Omaha area. As a local political observer suggested to us, if Obama wins Omaha, it will be after he blew out McCain across the country, and didn't need the 2nd District's one vote anyway.
But we think (as of today) that it will be close nationwide. And that NE-2 goes for McCain.
***
So what does that mean for the Jim Esch campaign, and their Red to Blue money-money-money? Well, some have said that the DCCC could pump as much as $400K into each of their targeted races across the country.
However, what is more likely is that they will NOT spend their money proportionately. They will instead likely spend lots more on the big races, and just a little on the chance races -- like Esch's.
That's why Esch's fund raising email, that pointed out the Red to Blue designation, pleads for more money by September 30th. That way they may get some more -- maybe matched -- by the DCCC into their race. Can they get enough to make a difference on TV? We guess we'll see...
***
Finally, we happened to run across this Blair Witch-esque YouTube clip (via our Google reader).
It is Lee Terry giving an impromptu speech to supporters of H.R. 1279, which would "provide funds to States to enable them to increase the wages paid to targeted direct support professionals (i.e. home caregivers) in providing services to individuals with disabilities under the Medicaid Program".
We thought it was just interesting to see Terry standing out in the rain, pumping up non-Nebraska voters on an issue that he deems important. You probably won't see it in the news or even on campaign pieces, but this stuff does happen.
He's not the only one that does this, but there's one example, nonetheless.
Posts
27 comments:
Okay, it's official. SS IS Dave Boomer. There's no doubt.
I'd just like to say, for the record, that I'm MUCH better looking that Boomer...
Let me explain the importance of DCCC targeting, for those that don't understand it. DCCC support doesn't just mean money from the DCCC. More importantly, it opens the doors to a flood of national PAC money. Most labor organizations and many other federal PACs only play where the DCCC plays. This likely means $500,000 to $1 mil raised for and spent on behalf of Esch in the next 52 days.
Obama has no chance in the 2nd District. First of all, he's a Democrat, strike one. Second of all, Sarpy County exists, strike two. And third of all, he's only half white, steeeerike three. Not to mention, Larry Donlan and his band of basement dwellers will hound anyone with the ability to see. Mikey Boyle rocks.
How can one explain the discrepancy between the caucuses and the primary? Can anyone say "Bradley Effect?" If all Esch has going for him is Obama's coattails, he had beeter not quit his day job. Oh wait...he doesn;t have a day job!!
I think i can explain the discrepency there, the primary vote didn't count. The delegates were already allotted when the primary came around, so why bother to go vote? I think most of the voted for Hillary came from her core supporters, while most of Obama's supporters made their choice known during the caucus.
To Sweeper: HMMM... "MUCH" Better looking than Boomer...Now a woman would say that in a heartbeat. A man would if he was.... well... Scott Kleeb...lol
Sorry Sweeper.
ASG,
I don't remember Jim Esch and Scott Kleeb discouraging Dems to vote in the Primary.
Not to mention that 60,000 more people voted in the primary than the caucus. So that must have been a LOT of Obama voters who stayed home that day.
In any case, you're better off arguing that ALL the Dem voters will vote Obama.
But our argument is that the Obama-mania is not representative of the voting process.
Only 52 days to find out, right?
Do these polls really count the younger voters, most of whom only have a cell phone and no home phone? That's why I don't trust these early polls, since they don't seem to count the under 35's very well.
When asked for a telephone number at stores and on applicatons, the number given is the number that gets compiled and sold to list companies like, for example, Omaha's very own InfoUSA. Young voters have a good chance of being called for a poll on their cell phones because they enter that number all the time (online, in contests, for credit apps).
Therefore, if they are under represented in polls it is by their own refusal of being too busy to respond to a poll. If they won't take the time for a poll about the election, why in the world would they go vote when they might have to, "Oh my God!", stand in line?
Anyone hear about the Gallup Congressional Ballot Poll released today. According to Fox, the dems hold a slim 3% on Republicans until you factor likelyhood to vote. Then it jumps to a 5% lead, FOR REPUBLICANS!
SS,
People who caucus aren't actual voters?? I guarantee you, if people take the time to go to a caucus, they're likely to take the time to go the polls on election day. My point: the caucus results are fair game for judging turnout on e-day. I do agree though that the slim margin in the primaries is curious. The only thing that makes sense to me is that the Obama caucus goers have zero interest in local politics. If that's so, those coattails for Esch seem pretty elusive.
I'm equally puzzled by Obama's of infusion of money and resources into Republican strongholds. Axelrod is looking for as many paths to 270 as possible, but do we need to let him know that this is no longer the Democratic primary?? General Election is winner take all.
BTW, based on a poll taken in my apartment, Omaha can deliver an electoral vote for Obama. It's not that crazy.
I am confused by someone's friend's statement that the General is "winner takes all"? You do understand how Nebraska's Electorals work, don't you?
By the way, where do you live? I want to do some voter ID in your area!
I can explain the discrepancy. The caucus was in February when Obama Fever - Catch it! was in full swing. By the time the primary came around, the Obama campaign was in full retreat against Hillary.
I am actually surprised he's only 10 points behind given the disgraceful way he and his campaign have treated Gov. Palin. But then, there's still time for Obama to jump up and down on Oprah's couch while calling Palin other names, so maybe Esch should hitch his wagon to McCain.
From the blog the Moderate Voice: For months, the Obama campaign invested advertising time and organizing money in an impressive array of red states that haven’t been on the Democrats’ radar in recent elections. This made for great press clippings. But, for the most part, it was a waste of assets.
My thoughts: jeez Lee Terry speaks so sloooooowly. Don't know much about the bill he championing, but isn't this a bit of interference into the free market (the federal government attempting wage controls?) I don't know if Milton Friedman would approve.
anon 8:52,
my post was muddled. yes, i'm well aware that nebraska and maine split their ev's, thanks for your concern. the point i was trying to make was that what worked for the obama camp during the primaries (if you recall d's award delegates proportionally whereas r's primaries are winner take all) may not yield the same results in the general - which IS winner take all, ME and NE excluded. i was speaking expansively, not just about nebraska.
Touche SS, Touche
If you look at at the candidates and their fund raising you will see i large difference in their total amounts. Granted some have raised 100K but other and the majority have only raised 25K-50K. Folks that is not going to get it done in the second district. Esch is a lameduck candidate and the money wont get there.
Granted he is on the list and it could happen but again... close only counts in horseshoes, hand gernades, and junior high dances!!! No Chance Esch!!!!
This campaign is going to be won/lost in five or six battleground states. McCain needs to go hard in Michigan and Colorado; Obama in Ohio and Florida. Everything else is a distraction. Even Iowa is probably irrelevant.
With that as a given, there are a few possible reasons for Obama's opening campaign offices in Nebraska and keeping them open in N Dakota.
(1) They haven't yet fully abandoned the idea of a 50 state campaign, which is lunacy in what looks like a very close election in which the money isn't coming in as fast as they projected.
(2) They're trying to con McCain into spending money in committed red states. I don't think McCain will go for that. So far his campaign has scarcely made a misstep.
Obama's campaign has so far been so bad that some conservative blogs are starting to whisper that he might, just might, cost the Dems their congressional majority.
Hey Ronnie,
Did you miss the part that said these caregivers are contracted through medicaid. It would be great for the Dems if this was about wage fixing. It is not. It is about getting caregivers in the public sector the same wages that care givers in the private sector already have.
Read the Bill.
my friend: you are exactly right about the Dem primary being different from the general election. In fact, if the Dems had patterned theirs after both the general and the GOP primary, Obama would have been in a much stronger position by convention time. Of course, he still would have wasted the opportunity because his campaigning skills are on par with John Kerry's, but perhaps he would have felt strong enough to pick Hillary as his VP, rather than picking Biden in a pathetic attempt to have his own Cheney.
Objectively, there's a reason why ND and MT would have more offices:
The population is more spread out. Montana is a huge state, area-wise. North Dakota's population is spread out across the state.
The 2nd CD is compact and a relatively small area. They can put one office in because it's so close together. In North Dakota and Montana, they have to target towns and cities that are hours away from each other, and so they need more than one office to handle it.
Under your scenario, the 3rd District should have at least 3 offices and the 1st at least 2. Does Obama not believe that anyone outside of the Omaha Metro area deserves representation? Or, does he only want to represent Blacks and Bleeding Hearts like Suzie Buffet?
What say you, and it better be good 'cuz you got some splainin' to do!
While perusing the blogs this a.m., I read Joe Jordan's. It includes a statement from Nancy Pelosi's DCCC. She thinks that Jim Esch has exceed demanding fundraising goals and that Jim Esch will bring a fresh view to Congress.
This after Esch just confessed to Joe Jordan that he has no money, zippo, $0 for t.v.? Either Jim Esch lied to the Press, AGAIN, or Nancy Pelosi has no friggin' clue what she is spending her hard earned cash on. My guess is, BOTH.
As for the "fresh view" translate that to someone she can control, ie: not a Republican!
ANON 8:51 CORRECTION
Nancy is not spending "her" hard earned cash ---- those are the dollars of duped contributors like Susie that are making early payments of reparation to rid their guilt.
You know Nancy has way too many dollars if she is willing to throw them at the Esch campaign.
Obama is not going to waste his time with NE-1 or 3 because he has absolutely no constituency there. How this is different from Montana or ND, I haven't the foggiest idea. Maybe ND is tired of being referred to as "the other Dakota" or "South Manitoba."
Security Guard:
Images of aborted fetuses are protected speech, and it's very unlikely a law banning them from being displayed on a truck would be upheld. The FCC even declined to restrict such images in political advertisements on daytime TV.
Post a Comment