The Power Behind Bruning and Hagel
As pols across
Nebraska continue to talk about Bruning and Hagel, Hagel and Bruning, let’s take a look at who is pushing their support for the two big players in the GOP Senate Primary.
Team Bruning
Sokol, Andersen, Bruning and Osborne
David Sokol
Like Deep Throat told Woodward and Bernstein, “follow the money”. In order for Bruning’s campaign to have any legs he has to have some initial strong financial support. Who better than the chairman and CEO of MidAmerican Energy and one whom many speculate to be Warren Buffett’s heir apparent at Berkshire Hathaway? Sokol was Jon Bruning’s finance chairman for his 2002 campaign and you may remember financed the poll that Bruning took of Nebraskans back in January. So what is Sokol’s stake in all this, and why take on someone like Hagel? Well, first off, he probably likes and believes in him. But also consider that the all the big-wheels in Nebraska business also love to be king-makers and kitchen cabinet members. Sokol is no different, and he’s the one helping Bruning (who will have a difficult time raising PAC money for a primary against Hagel) to find some deep pockets.
Tom Osborne
Don’t think that loss to Heineman still stings? Osborne bet his brief political career that he could cruise into the Gov’s office last spring. Unfortunately for him, he hemmed and hawed when making his decision, and by doing so, cost himself a major endorsement in one Senator Chuck Hagel. When Osborne couldn’t decide, Hagel made the decision and went with Dave Heineman and never looked back. You’ll remember the shot of Hagel and Heineman arm in arm the day after the primary, and TO does too. Also remember who was an Osborne backer in the primary: one Attorney General Jon Bruning. So TO can pay back Bruning for his support and pay back Hagel for that hatchet in the back.
Harold Andersen
How much influence does the retired publisher of the Omaha World Herald have these days, beyond his Sunday vanity column? Tough to say. But the member of Augusta National will have a rolodex filled with folks who may be able to open their wallets for the A.G. So what’s Andersen’s beef with Hagel? Well, he has never been keen on Hagel’s anti-Bush stance, and expressed that back in one of his Sunday columns back in 2004. And Hagel’s response to Andersen? “With all due respect, Harold Andersen does not know what he is talking about.” You think that one-liner doesn’t stick in old Harold’s craw? Don’t’ think we haven’t seen the last of Andersen’s columns on this topic.
Team Hagel
McCarthy, Heineman, Hagel, Johanns and Gottschalk
Dave Heineman
This one’s easy. Heineman is a veteran of Nebraska politics, and a veteran of the U.S. Army, having graduated from West Point. Hagel’s early endorsement for Heineman means that Heineman owes Hagel -- probably for his political life. There’s no way Heineman will forget that. And don’t expect the politically savvy Heineman to get tripped up on whether or not he supports Hagel’s position on Iraq. But even with his debt to Hagel, don’t forget that there is no love lost between Heineman and Bruning. Bruning was another Tom Osborne supporter and Bruning ticked off Heineman during the whole investigation into the State Treasurer’s office. Not to mention that Heineman would support many other alternative candidates (such as a Hal Daub or Mike Johanns) long before he’d support Bruning.
John Gottschalk
We throw in Gottschalk, current publisher of the Omaha World Herald, as the foil to Harold Andersen, but with an entire newspaper in his hands, instead of just a Sunday column. Hagel has always gotten strong support from the OWH, and that won’t change as long as Gottschalk is involved. Also keep in mind that it was Gottschalk who introduced Hagel to his now long-time business associate, confidant and campaign treasurer, Mike McCarthy of the McCarthy Group (and formerly with Hagel at AIS) . Never underestimate how much the OWH likes to be THE king-maker in Nebraska politics.
The Money Men
Mike McCarthy, chairman McCarthy Group, and Hagel bud is Hagel’s main money man. And Hagel should still be able to pull all the PAC funds he needs. But how about this Murderer’s Row of Nebraska lined up for a May fundraiser, hosted by Governor Dave Heineman:
- Walter Scott, chairman of Level 3 Communications;
- Jim Young, president Union Pacific;
- Ken Stinson, chairman and CEO Peter Kiewit Sons;
- Bruce Lauritzen, chairman First National Bank;
- Gary Rodkin, CEO ConAgra Foods;
- Richard Bell, chairman HDR;
- Mogens Bay, CEO Valmont;
- Howard Hawks, CEO Tenaska;
Do you think this group could provide a few duckets into the Hagel coffers? Think Bruning could ever come up with a fund-raising base like this?
Mike Johanns
Ahhhhh the wild card in this whole matter. As we noted in a previous post, it was interesting that when Bruning polled about the Senate race back in January, he did match-ups against Daub, Ricketts, Fortenberry, and Terry – but not against Mike Johanns. Again, in his recent poll, he matched himself against Hagel and Daub, but not Johanns. Why, you may ask? Because it’s pretty clear that if Hagel dropped out and Johanns jumped in, it would be Johanns’s race to lose. Because some have suggested that maybe Chuck Hagel doesn’t really want to campaign again across Nebraska. And maybe he would rather jump onto the big political stage to talk about the war, instead of hopping from Sidney to Lexington to talk about soybeans. And if he did do this, do you think Chuck Hagel would announce his support for Jon Bruning? We still think it’s a real good chance that the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture could get in this race. You can bet that is Jon Bruning’s biggest fear.
Bruning SMACKS Hagel; Hagel SLUGS Bruning
OK, let’s get a few points on the table:
1) Leavenworth Street does not have a dog in the current GOP U.S. Senate fight. Not Chuck Hagel. Not Jon Bruning. Not Mike Johanns, Hal Daub, Kermit Brashear or any other name you want to toss out.
2) We will discuss salient issues. Sometimes those issues appear to criticize one candidate over the other, but that doesn’t mean we have taken sides.
3) We will probably criticize all candidates. We will probably compliment all candidates. We will probably makes jokes about all candidates.
4) You can flail at the messenger if you want, but if you want to defend your candidate, defend him or her by giving a rational argument. Saying that Leavenworth Street is unfair or mean or biased or whatever else pops into your grey matter doesn’t help.
So why do we mention this? Because, if you didn’t know it, IT IS ON.
Bruning has come out with a poll that says he is ahead of Hagel by 9 points, or 24 points if you push the call about Hagel’s “anti-GOP” votes and statements. (
Bruning says he leads Hagel by 9 points – LJS – 4/23/07)
See the
Poll Questions here.
Hagel’s political director Kevin Chapman responded to Bruning, showing that he is well versed in
Bruning’s law school writings and may just know the identity of “R. Reagan at nebraska.conservative@yahoo.com” who recently sent around the Bruning Daily Nebraskan Article.
And so you don’t have to click or search, we’ll print, in full, what Jon Bruning stated today, and then how Chapman responded (thanks to
Southwest Nebraska News which generally prints releases in full):
Attorney General Jon Bruning today released statewide poll results showing him leading Senator Chuck Hagel by 9 percentage points in the 2008 Republican primary for U.S. Senate. Bruning leads Senator Hagel by 24 points when Hagel’s criticism of the President and his vote in support of the Democratic leadership’s strict troop withdrawal deadline from Iraq are considered.
“These numbers confirm what I’ve been hearing directly from Republicans as I’ve traveled throughout the state,” Bruning said. “While Republicans have expressed disappointment with Chuck Hagel, they’ve offered me support and encouragement; and for that I am truly honored and grateful.”
The poll also showed Bruning leading Hal Daub 55% to 16% statewide. The poll conducted last week surveyed 404 residents of Nebrask both registered Republican and considered likely to vote in the 2008 Republican primary election for U.S. Senate.
(Bruning Cites Lead over Hagel in Polling; Stops Short of Announcement – Southwest Nebraska News – 4/23/07)
And then from Kevin Chapman, political director for Hagel:
"With his record of credibility, we don't put much stock in 'polls' Jon Bruning pays his pollster to produce. Whatever Jon Bruning claims, Nebraskans will not vote for a chameleon.
"When Bill Clinton was president and the Democrats controlled Congress, Jon Bruning was a card-carrying pro-choice, pro-tax Democrat. After a Republican Congress was elected in 1994, he transformed himself into a pro-life, anti-tax Republican.
"Jon Bruning has repeatedly told people, including Senator Hagel, both publicly and privately that he would support Senator Hagel for re-election or president.
"Records and facts do matter. Senator Hagel has compiled one of the most conservative voting records in the Senate over the last ten years. Last year, Senator Hagel's voting record was the most supportive of President Bush in the Senate. He has worked with the President on immigration reform, Social Security reform, climate change, and tax and spending issues. It's laughable that Jon Bruning is claiming to be more Republican than Chuck Hagel."
(Hagel Comments on Bruning Press Conference – Southwest Nebraska News – 4/23/07.)
If you listen to the full Bruning press conference, you can hear Don Walton ask Bruning about Nebraskans’ views about Iraq and Mike Johanns. Bruning responds that they didn’t poll on war support or about interest in Johanns – but did poll Bruning against Hal Daub, in addition to Hagel.
Bruning also challenges Gov. Dave Heineman about his expressed support of Hagel, questioning whether Heineman supports Hagel’s positions on the war and on the President. So in case you weren’t sure, Bruning is taking both Hagel and Heineman on, head first.
And here are a few questions for you readers:
- Does this encourage Hagel to run even harder, or if Hagel finds the numbers to be accurate, will he drop out and support someone like Johanns, rather than let Bruning win the seat?
- Hal Daub has expressed real interest. What does he do? Sit it out for awhile. Express support for Hagel? Run for Mayor of Omaha?
- And particularly to you Democrats: Assuming that Bob Kerrey will not act on his 1%, what does Mike Fahey do? At what point does he need to make a decision? And if not Fahey, then who?
Remember, all the candidates and offices are reading (and remember what we wrote up above)!
Mike Fahey's Senate Decision
Before our short analysis, first a little Separated at Birth.
Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and…The Joker.
“Fahey would not challenge (U.S. Senator Chuck ) Hagel if he seeks re-election, said Paul Landow, the mayor's chief of staff, out of Fahey's respect for Hagel and because of the practical difficulty of beating an elected incumbent senator.” (D.C. chat has Fahey considering Senate bid – OWH – 2/11/07.)
“Fahey, however, left himself an out to run for the U.S. Senate in the event that Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel does not seek re-election. Fahey said his final decision won't come until the end of the year.” (Fahey planning fundraising dinner – OWH – 4/18/07.)
Quotes from reports on Mike Fahey’s interest in the U.S. Senate back in February of this year and just a few days ago.
But has A.G. Jon Bruning’s change of heart about challenging Hagel changed Fahey’s position?
Consider this: The 63-year-old Fahey doesn’t want to get in, unless he can win. He doesn’t think he can beat Hagel. But what if Hagel is challenged?
You figure that Bruning wouldn’t challenge Hagel unless he thought he had a very good – or even nearly certain – chance of beating Hagel in the GOP primary. So if Bruning gets in, Fahey has a decision to make.
Assume that in January or February Hagel’s still in, fighting for his political life against Bruning. But many might think Hagel is done-for. So where does that leave Fahey? He promised that he wouldn’t challenge Hagel (well, then again, so did Bruning). And he probably figures he’d lose to Hagel. But he thinks he can beat Bruning. But while Bruning looks like he’d win, it’s not a lock.
Hmm…
Some of this should come into better focus when the fundraising numbers come in on June 30th of this year. Good numbers for Bruning and poor ones for Hagel could provide a lot of influence…
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And if you can wait until around lunch time this Friday, we’ll be posting and commenting on an old Opinion Piece by a young second year law student at the University of Nebraska, that was sent to Leavenworth Street more than once in the past few days.
That former law student was recently seen, unshaven, chatting with the former Secretary General of the United Nations – and he was a just a tad more to the left in the law school days than he is now.
Ya'll come back now, ya hear!
Bruning vs Hagel
Retired Omaha World Herald publisher Harold Andersen must have had some inside beef when he wrote last Sunday in his vanity column that many Republicans think U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel should get a primary challenge if he decides to run for re-election.
Despite the fact that Andersen’s admitted survey sample was eight GOPers, there must have been a few in that octet who had a little knowledge of Attorney General Jon Bruning’s intentions.
In case you missed it, Bruning said that he may just challenge Hagel in a primary because, “he is upset with Hagel's criticism of President Bush and the Iraq war,” and that “he also is upset with Hagel's comments about Bush and impeachment,” (
Bruning may yet take on Hagel in '08 – OWH – 4/19/07).
But let’s not pretend that it’s any recent statements by Hagel that have prompted Bruning to announce his (possible) move.
Hagel has been protesting the Iraq War since nearly the day he voted for it (if you follow). For over a year he has been considered the leading Republican against the war and has made any number of statements against the war and the President’s handling of it. So Bruning can’t now claim that he’s shocked – shocked! – by Hagel’s war position.
And then there’s the “impeachment” issue. Hagel’s interview in the
April edition of Esquire Magazine was published on the web, and quoted by nearly every major news outlet on March 6, 2007. (Though contrary to Harold Andersen’s assertion, Hagel did not say that there was “talk of impeachment”.)
So EVERYONE knew what Hagel said at that point. Chuck Hagel then made his non-announcement-announcement on March 12. And on March 15 Bruning announced that he was thinking about running, but TWICE said he wouldn’t, if Hagel ran. Heck Bruning called himself a “Hagel guy”. This is the same Chuck Hagel who just nine days prior had used the “I-word” in reference to President Bush.
So what has changed for Bruning? Well, probably lots of people whispering in his ear that they don’t like what Hagel has been saying. And probably there’s more than a few of those people who have Tony Soprano-like wads of cash rolled up in their pockets and are telling Bruning that he could have access to said wad if he challenges Hagel. (And the fact that
Hagel has only raised $100K for a re-election bid didn’t hurt either.)
But make no mistake: If you go after the King’s throne, you had better kill him, or you’ll be dead yourself. If Bruning does not defeat Hagel in the primary, it is career suicide for him. Oh, and Bruning better also make sure no one else jumps in, or as Harold Andersen also pointed out, they would split the anti-incumbent vote and Hagel would stroll in. (And don’t forget that Hal Daub, who also has announced that he’s thinking about the Senate, did this once before when he challenged sitting-Senator Dave Karnes.)
So old Harold Andersen – the man who once hoped for the appointment by Governor Orr to the Zorinsky seat that went to Karnes – and a confirmed Hagel-hater – seems to have had a few ducks in a row before last Sunday’s column. Hagel’s office is now saying that Bruning’s new statement won’t influence him on whether or not to run for President or re-election. But don’t be surprised if it does influence Hagel – to run specifically against Bruning to knock his block off.
The Mayor of Lincoln
First, a little
Separated at Birth for the final two candidates for Mayor of Lincoln.
Bespeckled former State Senator,
Chris Beutlerand
Bespeckled Lake Wobegon resident,
Garrison Keillor
Mustachioed Lincoln City Councilman, Ken Svoboda
and
Mustachioed Hawaii P.I., Tom Selleck.
With the Lincoln Mayor’s race down to two, we thought we would go ahead and post on the race. But instead of tossing out our take on the match-up between Beutler and Svoboda, we thought we’d toss it to YOU the Leavenworth Street reader on the comment board:
Who’s going to win, and why?
But please resist telling us who you think should win, or who has better proposals or whatever else.
Here on Leavenworth Street, we want to hear your political savvy as to why one of these two will win. What are the political reasons?
If you can’t help but get into their policy positions, please tell why voters – and which voters – will be drawn to vote for them based on that position.
- How will money play?
- How will Beutler’s primary plurality affect the psyche of the voters?
- What of voter turnout?
- And how about the party make-up of Lincoln voters?
Here’s your big chance to show the readers of Leavenworth Street that your political analysis deserves to be heard (and if you don’t want to sign your name, please come up with an alias, just so we can follow who’s saying what).
Have at it!
