Monday, October 08, 2007

Kerrey still in a New York state of mind

First, a little random Separated at Birth, contributed by Leavenworth Street reader, and Lincoln Journal Star editorial cartoonist, Neal Obermeyer:

Mike Johanns and Alan Partridge

Now, while this SAB will be lost on 99.999% of you (as it was on us), Alan Partridge is a popular character done by BBC radio and TV star Steve Coogan. We know this, because we read this Wikipedia entry.

Nealo has now laid down the gauntlet to the rest of you out there to come up with some SABs. Get to work.

***

Two weeks ago, the AP reported that Cosmic Bob Kerrey would “likely” make up his mind about running for the U.S. Senate “next week”. That would have been last week which, according to our calendar, has come and gone.

Then we learned that Bob, though he’s been thinking about this for months now, has made no headway on his decision. Hmm.

Next, we find out via a random New York City blogger, that in spite of all his talk about calling Nebraska farmers, he has been meeting with New York Senators. (Arm in arm with Chuck Schumer, in this case. Color us shocked.)

So what’s he waiting for?

Well, let’s look at his decision-making process again:

1) Kerrey only runs if he thinks he WILL win.
2) Poll numbers may show that he can’t beat Johanns.
3) But poll numbers may show that Bruning could beat Johanns in the primary (or maybe they don’t).
4) Poll numbers may show that Kerrey can beat Bruning.
5) So are the odds good enough that Bruning would beat Johanns, and then Kerrey would beat Bruning?

Well we (meaning us, the non-pollster public) don’t really know. And while we do know and understand that Kerrey uprooting his kindergartener would be a hassle, let’s not pretend that Kerrey would be the first guy to go to D.C. with kids. We probably can all agree that trying to raise a family while in Congress sucks, but c’mon. You make that decision six months ago, while telling the New School board of directors (which may or may not include convicted felons) that you may quit real soon.

Enough with the hemming and hawing and “I’m talking to Nebraskans on tractors” and going on Scarbourough Country (or Morning Joe, as it were) saying “it’s possible”.

Kerrey’s only question is WILL I WIN?

The answer to that question will be the deciding factor, no matter what ever else he may say. (And thank-you to Hal Daub for giving us the honest answer when he dropped out. Will Kerrey do the same?)

***

The LJS’s Don Walton has laid out the scuttlebutt on who may run for Nebraska’s three House seats. Notably NOT on the list are 2nd Districters Jim Esch and Cliff Herd. Also on the 2nd District list with the ever-mentioned State Sen. Tom White is State Sen. Steve Lathrop. Walton also notes that Maxine Moul will be a no-show in the 1st District.

Walton’s full list of Dem prospects:

1st District: State Sen. Bill Avery of Lincoln and state Sen. Kent Rogert of Tekamah.

2nd District: State Sens. Tom White and Steve Lathrop, both of Omaha.

3rd District: Scott Kleeb of Hastings, the 2006 Democratic nominee, and state Sen. Annette Dubas of Fullerton.

17 comments:

Walton Gone Wild? said...

Has anyone seen any of these "prospective candidates" actually do anything to lay the groundwork for a campaign, or is this just Walton during a slow news week?

One Out In The Third said...

I don't think Cosmic Bob stands a chance against either Johanns or Bruning. His decision should be simple...either lead or get the hell out of the way. Where's the motivation and excitement Bob? The desire to represent Nebraska and Nebraskans? Either you have it or not.

Hastings Jim said...

Nebraskans are quite a bit smarter than the voters of New York. This idea of the elite Dems with the help of George Soros and MoveOn.org coming to Nebraska to use their very empty “Hate every Republican” rhetoric won't hunt. (Or in Bob Kerrey's case --- I am really an independent thinker who will only vote Dem when you dummies in Nebraska aren't looking)

It didn't work in the 3rd before and won't work in the Senate this time around.

Recall ---- Candidate Jan Stoney spent significantly less dollars than Cosmic Bob the last time around and he sweat blood come November.

My odds say the Marlboro Man, Kleeb will be running against either Johanns or Bruning. Kleeb loves the Rock Star status of the Dem cool aid drinkers. And if you listen to him for depth of message, he wouldn't know what to do if he won because he would still be on his "Listen Tour" sucking up to the LJS and OWH. Just another LEFTY with a big ego who has never won an election that is passing through pimping the rabid haters of DailyKOS.

OmaSteak said...

StreetSweeper,
Wouldn't a more representative SAB be Mike and a wet paint spot? A 100% poll driven politician with all the personality of watching paint dry...although odds-on favorite to win. A permanent backbencher for sure as opposed to Bruning who will seekout the limelight even more than the retiring Senator.

Street Sweeper said...

Ignoring the “paint-drying” suggestion for the SAB (which would require us to post an .mpeg rather than a .jpg), I think the question of what type of Senator you want may be at the forefront of this campaign.

Assuming that there will be few differences on policy, which is likely, do you want a subdued, some would say even-keeled Senator, who is satisfied being out of the limelight?

Or do you want a Senator who is more boisterous, maybe becomes more well-known, maybe more divisive?

(Keep in mind, those are pretty simplified descriptions, and may or may not be apt for either candidate.)

Let’s say they vote the same way. Who would you prefer?

This could be the deciding factor for many people.

OmaSteak said...

I want a Senator who will be vocal and work tirelessly to: (1) pass the Fair Tax act; (2) build the border fence and push for sustained vigorous enforcement of our existing immigration laws; (3) insist that we win using whatever military action it takes win both wars in Iraq and Afghanistan; (4) push for the nomination and speedy confirmation of strict conservative federal and supreme court justices; and (5) balance the budget and make the dollar strong...just to name a few. Any NE republicans likely to do any/all of the above??? Don't count on it anytime soon...but then again lightyears better than your typical socialist democrat.

Anonymous said...

Herd isn't running.

Don't know who you heard that from.

Street Sweeper said...

Yes, we're aware that Cliff Herd has said he isn't going to run for the 2nd Dist House seat. His name had been bandied about by numerous sources previously.

NE2 Watcher said...

If the candidates in NE2 are supposedly White or Lathrop, I wonder if they open themselves to attack for running for Congress so soon. Both have been Senators for all of 10 months--did either campaign last year for the Legislature by saying, if elected, they'd run for Congress in the middle of their freshman term?

Anonymous said...

Why isn't Esch even thinking about it? He came close... Didn't he say on the day after the election he would have another go at it?

Anonymous said...

None of these candidates has done anything to suggest they were thinking of running for Congress. It would be foolish of them to (if Lathrop wanted to be in Congress, for instance, wouldn't he just have run for Congress last year with Ben Nelson on the ticket?).

Anonymous said...

I could be wrong, but I recall a quote by Tom White saying he was going to be in the Legislature for the full term. It was in the OWH this spring.

Anonymous said...

Here is Tom's Quote:

"While avoiding a specific answer about his ambitions, White said, 'I was elected to cCOMPLETE [emphasis added] a term. I was elected to do a job in Lincoln. I intend to do the job my constituents elected me for.' "

I am still trying to run down if it was LJS or OWH - It was in May of 2007.

NE2 Watcher said...

Has anyone heard that Ernie Chambers is talking to people about getting into the NE2 race?

Video Killed the Radio Star said...

The Yohanns' video looks like it was shot at Jon Camp's Apothecary loft? Can anyone confirm?

Also, although Yohanns is a small guy, he looks even smaller in the video.

I don't like amatuers said...

Don dug deep, about as deep as he dug for the Senate poll source, to come up with White and Lathrop, Duh!!? The Dems have been pinning their hopes on those 2 ever since they announced they were even slightly interested in elected office (about 5 minutes before they got up from there billable hours sheet and decided they could get free healthcare for their family if they spent about an hour a day in Lincoln).

By the way, Esch's words seem to be forever frozen in time on his website. What's up with that and does Kleeb still think he came really, really, super-duper close to beating Smith?

Anonymous said...

What free health care? State Senators have to pay for it out of their tiny paychecks just like the rest of us.