Hagel Watch

Don Walton states (without citing his source -- but probably Hagel's press dude Mike Buttry) that while a recent Washington Post interview indicated Hagel wouldn’t decide on his Presidential/Senatorial ambitions for six weeks, in reality, “it was just an offhand remark, not actually a revised timeline.” So from that we’d guess it should come this week, right? Oh, who the hell knows… (Don Walton: Tick, tick, waiting for Hagel - LJS – 1/29/07.)

And despite at least two different indications from Hagel that he may run for President as a member of the Bull Moose Party (or, some other less interesting sounding Independent party), in a lengthy Newsweek feature, Hagel says that notion is “ludicrous”. (Rebel Chuck Hagel: A President in the Making? a/k/a A Reluctant Rebel’s Yell – Newsweek – 2/5/07 issue).

Hagel the Bull Moose?

Today the Washington Post has a front page (below the fold) story on Chuck Hagel’s possible Presidential ambitions (Hagel Ponders White House Run As War Criticism Raises His Profile – Wash. Post – 1/26/07). The story notes that Hagel has become a pariah in the Republican Party and garners about 1% in GOP primary polling. It then talks about a possibility of taking a “creative path” towards the Presidency:

"Hagel joked during the interview about teaming up with New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, a moderate Republican, and also floated the possibility of joining a bipartisan unity ticket with a Democrat -- with his name first, of course."

We’re not so sure this “joking” won’t take on a life of its own. But it would really take a hurricane like change in American politics for a third party candidacy to have a realistic shot -- though hurricanes, both meteorological and politically (see New Orleans and Minnesota) do happen.

In any case, our general view here on Leavenworth Street, as noted in a response to a comment yesterday, is that Hagel is not taking his anti-war position in order to fuel his run for the Presidency; he’s fueling his Presidency run so that he can keep the spotlight on the one true issue for which he has passion – the war in Iraq. (And see this Wall St. Journal Op-Ed by former Reagan speech writer Peggy Noonan giving Hagel kudos for his anti-shoe salesman views.)

There’s no doubt that Hagel’s Vietnam experience has shaped his views on Iraq, and we find it very difficult to say that he is simply grandstanding. Now that’s not to say that he doesn’t like all the attention he’s getting (show me a single pol who wouldn’t like it). But if Hagel were simply to keep a Presidential pulpit in order to speak about the war, and in the end get clobbered in the voting booth, he’d still be happy.

**Update 11:30am**

We'd just note that in the 1/24/07 OWH article, Hagel said he'd announce his decision in "a couple of weeks". In today's Wash. Post, Hagel now says he'll announce in the next SIX weeks...

Hagel Unplugged

In the upcoming March issue of GQ magazine (available on the table at your barber shop) you will find an interview with Nebraska’s own U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel, the “It-Guy” of the anti-Iraq war sentiment in Congress (and on Leavenworth Street, of late).

The interview is entitled:

THE ANGRY ONE
Republican senator Chuck Hagel sounds off on the sorry state of Congress, the president’s lies, and the vote for war that he now regrets

From that title, you can guess that this is a Hagel unlike what you tend to hear on local TV, in the papers, or even when hounding Condi Rice in Committee.

Get ready for some unbridled Chuck.

NRSC Says Hagel Will Run For 2008 Senate

According to a story in today’s Roll Call newspaper, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) says that U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel WILL run for re-election in 2008. (Despite Presidential Flirtation, Hagel Assures NRSC He’ll Seek Re-election – Roll Call – 1/23/07 – subscription required) This news comes counter to other information from insider sources over the past month. Highlights from the Roll Call story state:

Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) has assured the National Republican Senatorial Committee that he intends to run for re-election next year - although that decision does not mean he has chosen to forgo a presidential bid, which he continues to seriously consider.

Sources familiar with Hagel's thinking say the Senator has no desire to exit elective office in 2008, and they expect him to run for re-election to the Senate if his prospective bid for the Republican presidential nomination falls short. Because the presidential primary season is front-loaded with key January races, the Senator's status in that contest probably would be determined by Nebraska's Feb. 15 filing deadline for incumbents, leaving him sufficient time to transition to a Senate race.

"Sen. Hagel has told the NRSC that he plans to run for re-election," said a Republican operative based in Washington, D.C. "But as with all Senators up for re-election, things can certainly change."

Hagel's Senate office declined on Monday to comment on his political future, other than to say the Senator would announce his plans in the next couple of weeks.

Similarly, it's that desire to influence foreign policy and national security strategy that is likely to keep Hagel from retiring from the Senate outright or adopting a run-for-president-or-bust approach to his political future.

"I think Sen. Hagel believes the country is at an important crossroads from an international and security standpoint," said Republican strategist Doug McAuliffe, who has worked as Hagel's media consultant. "I find it hard to believe, with the nation facing such a critical policy debate about its future, that Chuck Hagel would be sitting on the sidelines two years from now."

In national TV interviews this past weekend, Hagel did not completely rule out the possibility of running for president as an Independent, though most Republicans see that as highly unlikely.

The story goes on to say that Hagel would not simply run for President as a “fringe candidate”, along the lines of a Dennis Kucinich.

As indicated in our post yesterday, we at Leavenworth Street believe that the odds are long that Hagel will seek re-election. Keep in mind that if Hagel announced his decision to retire from politics, his status as a lame-duck Senator would diminish his relevance and the spotlight would dim. Instead if he announces a run for President, all his options would be open. But even with this rumor today, we still wonder if this is to keep AG Jon Bruning at bay while they give Mike Johanns the hard sell to run for Hagel’s seat.

While he can always have a change of heart, this news will send shock-waves through the Nebraska political community and to all those potential candidates for open offices.

**Update 1:45 pm, 1/23/07**
And just to muddy the water further, the LJS reports that Hagel spokesman Mike Buttry says that the Roll Call story is NOT true, in that Hagel has NOT decided what to do yet in 2008, and will decide within the next two weeks. (Hagel hasn’t made 2008 decision – LJS – 1/23/07.)

The Odds for Chuck Hagel

The rumor du jour regarding Chuck Hagel is that he’ll consider running for President as an Independent (we're partial to TR’s old Bull Moose party), after sort of a non-response to such a question over the weekend (Hagel: Indie Candidacy Buzz? – Nat. Journal Hotline – 1/21/07). We find this scenario fairly unlikely, though Hagel has expressed frustration with his GOP brethren.

With that in mind, we here at Leavenworth Street proffer our…

ODDS OF WHAT CHUCK HAGEL WILL DO IN 2008
(in reverse order of likelihood)

Run for reelection to the Senate
Odds 20:1

The signs for this point to no: he hasn’t been raising money and word is that he’s tired of the Senate and tired of his job. With Sen. Dick Lugar still there and Dems probably still in majority, he can’t be Chairman of Foreign Relations Committee, which would be one compelling reason for him to stay in. But if Ag Sec. Mike Johanns won’t run for Hagel’s seat, does Hagel disdain Attorney General Jon Bruning enough to run for re-elect (to keep Bruning out)?

Run for Prez
Odds 10:1

Again, the signs – pretty much any poll you look at – point to no. Unless Hagel simply wants to be the alternative to pro-Iraq GOPers – he DOES have a strong conservative record, as opposed to a Giuliani or a Romney. But at this point Hagel has no money and no support in the general GOP populace where he comes off as someone who is anti-GOP and anti-President Bush.

Leave politics all together and go back to business
Odds 8:1

He could go back to the business world, work on boards, some international business issues, maybe a think-tank. This is the most likely unless he gets what is his most likely desire…

Try to stay relevant on the national scene in order to land a spot in the next GOP Admin.
Odds 3:1

If he got a job as Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, an Ambassadorship or maybe heading up the IMF or the World Bank, he would still get to work on major issues, live in D.C. (well, unless he’s an ambassador), but wouldn’t have to deal with the day-to-day grind of Senate politics. Given that President is unlikely, we think this is where Chuck Hagel would like to be.

And what do YOU think?...

Happy Birthday Leavenworth Street!

We nearly forgot that this blog turned One-Year-Old today!

Our post from Day 1 still stands.

So cheers, and there is cake in the conference room.

Is Nelson Running for Something?

Is U.S. Senator Ben Nelson running for some other office we don’t know about?

Is there a reason he’s teetering from side to side on THE major political question of the day?

On the President’s plan to send 21,000 more troops to Iraq, guess where Senator Chuck Hagel stands?

“The most dangerous foreign policy blunder in this country since Vietnam.”
You may agree or disagree with Hagel’s stance, but there’s no doubt about understanding his position.

How about Rep. Lee Terry?
“I support the President's plan.”

Rep. Jeff Fortenberry?
“It seems reasonable and prudent.”

Rep. Adrian Smith – just got to DC:
“I support this effort.”

Heck, let’s go across the river and see what ol’ Sen. Tom Harkin thinks:
“The wrong strategy.”

None of these elected representatives to the United States Congress has any problem telling you where they stand regarding the top issue of the day.

But Ben Nelson? Well let’s see:

He is "not convinced that sending in an additional 21,000 troops will quell the sectarian violence or stabilize Baghdad."

While "trying to maintain an open mind" on that question, Nelson said, he cannot ignore the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group and senior military leaders who have argued that sending more U.S. troops is not the answer.

Nelson said he agrees with the president's approach to establish benchmarks for progress by the Iraqis. That's a strategy Nelson has long advocated as "conditions for staying" in Iraq. (Hagel says Bush strategy is wrong-headed - LJS - 1/11/07.)

Uh…what?

Senator, the campaign is over.
Hop down and take a position. It's what you were elected to do.

The first Senate poll of 2008?

Bruning...Johanns?...Fortenberry??

Don Walton reports today in the Lincoln Journal Star about a poll which shows Attorney General Jon Bruning in the lead for the 2008 GOP Senate nomination (Bruning leads poll if Hagel doesn’t run – LJS – 1/10/07).

But, as Don notes, who is the one 500 pound gorilla, not mentioned in the poll, that could really stop Bruning in his tracks? Mike Johanns. (And we hear whispers that the Ag Secretary is interested.)

A few things about the poll:

1) It was paid for by Omaha Poobah and chairman and CEO of MidAmerican Energy Holdings, David Sokol, who was Bruning’s 2002 campaign finance chairman.
2) The polls questions are unknown, so one never knows what sort of road the poll-ee was led down.
3) It seems that the poll questioned voters about head-to-head match-ups between Bruning and other considered nominees (see below). An interesting way of framing the race, and probably an interesting way to potentially get the highest numbers for Bruning. (Do you think this poll would have seen the light of day if it wasn’t positive for Bruning?)

Now note that, of course, this poll is assuming that Chuck Hagel does not run for re-election in 2008 (as reported by KMTV’s Joe Jordan). But note that Bruning says:

"I think he’s a fantastic senator," Bruning said Tuesday. "If he does want to seek re-election, I want to be among the first to endorse and support him."

This would seem like Bruning is saying he would not make a primary challenge to Hagel, right? But we’re guessing that when Bruning says he wants to be among the first to support him, an out (if Hagel does run) will be to say, “I wanted to support him, but – darn it – I just can’t.”

Another interesting note was that Don Walton threw Kermit Brashear in as another interested in running in 2008. But heck, why stop there? Let’s throw in Nancy Hoch and Jan Stoney as well.

Here is the breakdown of the poll, from Don’s article (and once again, if you want to know what’s going on in Nebraska politics, Don’s your man):

Bruning - 52%
Daub - 20%

Bruning - 54 %
Ricketts - 24%

Bruning – 38%
Terry – 22%

Bruning – 40%
Fortenberry – 20%

Bruning – 36%
Ricketts - 21%
Daub – 16% (in a three-way)

We’ll assume that in each of these cases, the question was asked about a two-man race, and the balance was “undecided”. Interesting that Lee Terry and Jeff Fortenberry both dramatically dropped Bruning’s numbers (as opposed to Ricketts or Daub). And we also may be close to adding Fortenberry to our list of potential 2008 candidates. You can guarantee that he would be a formidable opponent to Bruning. (And we also may be looking to subtract Terry from the 2008 Senate race, as he seems to be successfully climbing up the GOP hierarchy in the House.)

Polls like this keep our political juices flowing during the winter doldrums…

Representing NEBRASKA in the House

Achelpohl here shows, with one hand, the number of Republicans and Democrats Nebraska has in the House of Representatives.

Democratic Party Chair Steve Achelpohl sent out his initial rant of the new year lecturing Nebraska's Republicans in Congress to “put partisanship aside and join Democrats in addressing the priorities of the American people…these priorities are the core of the Democratic agenda.”

Well now. Just hold onto your trousers there for a sec, Stevie-boy.

Let’s square away what happened on Election Day in Nebraska two months ago:
Were Maxine Moul, Jim Esch and Scott Kleeb sent to D.C.?
Did NEBRASKANS sweep Democrats back into the House of Representatives?
Did NEBRASKANS lap up the Democratic agenda (or for that matter, did Ben Nelson)?

The answers to those questions, in order, would be No, No and No.

You know, throughout the campaigns, we kept hearing how Nebraska pols were supposed to look out for the principles and interests of Nebraskans. Well, Nebraskans stated clearly which party's principles they favor (and CQ’s latest ratings show that Senator Nellie tries his darnedest to be a GOP supporter as well).

But do Nebraskans want Congress to be bipartisan to accomplish needed goals? Probably they do. And Rep. Lee Terry took to the floor of the House on the opening day of the new Congress lamenting the fact that the Dems were doing the exact opposite of being bipartisan – by jamming the latest watered-down ethics plan down their throats without any debate or amendments allowed.

So before the Nebraska Democrats head-hatchet man takes any more swipes at our ELECTED Representatives, maybe the he should instead follow the lead of a former head of the Nebraska Democratic Party -- Federal Judge Joe Bataillon -- and commend Nebraska’s Republican Representatives to the House (for their efforts to get another permanent federal judge in the state). Seeing as these Members are actually looking out for Nebraskans…