The Nebraska Democrat strategy

Let’s take a trip out to Nebraska’s Third Congressional District this morning, shall we?

Congressman Adrian Smith is running against underfunded, first time ever candidate Rebekah Davis.

Shockingly, Davis, the Yale grad who likely gets carded when she buys root beer, has not gained much financial support or traction in general.

But wait, Davis isn’t the only other name on the ballot against Smith. Enter Dan Hill who...well...we’re not sure what Dan’s story is.

He says that he would have voted almost exactly the same as Adrian Smith has. But Adrian doesn’t meet his snuff, or some such, so he decided to run. Why not then oppose Adrian in the Republican primary.

Well that answer is easy: He wouldn’t have gotten the support of the Democrats.

Huh?

Well you see, as we pointed out earlier, Hill had the support of at least one name-ID’d Democrat in the 3rd -- Scott Kleeb (of the Jane Kleebs). As we noted here, Kleeb signed Hill’s petition to get on the ballot.

Why? To dilute Smith’s Republican vote, of course.

So, many other tangential facts came about concerning a coordinated campaign between Davis and Hill -- their talking points, certain joint appearances, etc.

But (and we’re leading up to something here) get a load of what Davis said the other day to the GII:

Davis said she wants people to be engaged in the system, so she carries around campaign literature of her opponent, Hill, and hands it to voters, telling them that even if they don't support a Democrat, there are other options.


"I want them to know who is out there," she said. "Instead of handing them my flier, I'll give them Dan's flier because it is my hope that voters will not be apathetic this voting cycle. Our country matters too much for a person to stay at home and not vote."

Riiiiiiiight.

But if she were just concerned about being a good citizen, then why not hand out Smith’s info as well? Well, because that would defeat the Democrat strategy of splitting the vote to get her into office.

We are frankly not too surprised that Davis is doing this.

We are however, shocked and amazed that she would TELL the press that she is doing this.

This is where you are Democrats. This is where you are.

***

But not to be outdone in goofiness in the third, we take you over to the Tea Party rally in York on Friday evening.

Now the Tea Partiers there wanted to have a “Go Vote” rally, and actually invited ALL candidates to be there. Their specific request was no campaigning, but anyone could speak.

Various Tea Partiers were going to speak, as well as Adrian Smith.

Well the Nebraska Democrat Party would have none of that!

The Dems immediately fired off several nastygrams to the Tea Partiers, the county attorney and the Secretary of State. (While we have no doubt they tried to contact Hillary, we’re talking about John Gale here.)

Their claim was that since the rally was taking place on the grounds of the York County Courthouse -- and there is pre-voting going on there -- statute says they can’t campaign, they have to be 200 feet away, etc.

Well, except that the rally was starting at 6:00 pm. And the courthouse closes (and there is no more voting) at 5:00 pm. Oh, and there was no campaigning going on anyway.

So, of course, saner, more reasonable people saw that this was of course not an issue and let the rally go on as planned. About 130 people showed up, Adrian Smith and others spoke, and all had a pleasant evening. (See pics, etc here from the York News Times -- “All the fit that’s print to news!”)

But the Nebraska Democrats are undeterred! They will file a complaint against the Tea Partiers and show those 130 people and others who like to give pro-voting speeches just who they are up against!

So the next time you are wondering why the Democrats don’t have candidates for statewide office. Or why they are eating their own Governor candidates. Or why they don’t support their own candidates monetarily. Or why they’re not -- you know -- helping to elect Democrats.

Just remember: They’re busy stopping voting rallies and handing out fliers for the opposition. That’s what they do.

***

And speaking of the Kleebs, did you know that Jane Kleeb had a complaint filed against her little school board race regarding a failure to comply with very basic campaign requirements?

We know, you are shocked.

***

And Go Huskers!

Terry TV: One last point

Lee Terry has his final ad of the 2010 campaign up.
See it here:



A good closing piece for Terry. This campaign has been about jobs and the future of the country and the Obama/Pelosi plan's impact on them. It is good that Terry is at a business talking about the importance of this election on the prosperity of America.

(And he also has a great tan.)

***

A couple of things about the the anti-recall press conference the other day:

What was their point, again?

Oh yeah, it was "A recall would be TERRIBLE for the city." How terrible? "REALLY terrible." (We're paraphrasing.)

Comedian Brad Ashford claims that Omaha would be a laughingstock if it recalls its Mayor.

Really?

In this political climate, that is not likely to be the message at all. We would suggest that it would be bellwether.

The story that would go out nationally would be, Suttle campaigned on a pledge to not raise taxes. When he got into office, among other things, he immediately raised taxes. This pissed off the people and the people sent him packing.

That's not a laughing matter. That's a message.

***

The only decent point made at the presser was from P.J. Morgan who gave an actual example of how changing the guard would have complicated matters when he was negotiating with Campbells back in 1993.

And that may have been true back then, but is there anything to show that Suttle is making similarly shrewd decisions now? Maybe there are, and maybe there aren't. But that hasn't been the focus of the ANTI groups.

Their message has been, "Costs too much!"

Of course, that has been the message of the PRO recallers as well...

***

And Dick Holland says he "very suspicious of the recallers".

Reallllllly?

This from the sugar-daddy of the Democrats? The guy who is funding a group to steal web addresses, slur candidates and make secret videos?

Well that's rich.

***

And the gang at the Objective Conservative posts an interesting question about the tax implications of Forward Omaha's hiring of hundreds of employees at $150 a pop, and whether they are filing all the appropriate documents with those understanding folks at the IRS.

We don't know the answer, but my, that could be a pickle.

***

And as we get pumped about Saturday's game, could the Governor of Missouri have put up a more lame item against Governor Dave's Omaha Steaks?

Black and Gold candy? That's the stuff that stays at the bottom of your bowl after you've finished all the Snickers and Butterfingers.

Ya got some wax candy to go with that Governor Nixon?

Go Huskers!

2010 Halloween SABs!

Ah, our favorite time of year.
Autumn leaves? Trick or Treating?  Election week?

No!

Halloween Separated at Birth, of course -- our FIVE year anniversary!

You remember them from 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009.

Well, this year we tore off a page of stamps and based all of our SABs on 'em:

So hereeeeeeee we go!

First former Omaha Mayoral spokesdude...

Next, Democrat Lt. Governor candidate...

Embattled Omaha Mayor...

State Senator and 2nd District Congressional candidate...

And last, but not least, Nebraska's senior Senator...

Woo hoo!  And Happy Halloween!

Obama: This election is about my agenda

President Obama (or "Barack", if you're Joe Biden), laid out Tuesday's election as we have known it all along:

It's all about him.

"My name may not be on the ballot, but our agenda for moving forward is on the ballot, and I need everybody to turn out."

Can that be any clearer readers?

If you want the agenda of this Democrat President -- and of Democrats Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid -- to move forward, then the Democrats are your people.

If you do not, then it's the R on the ballot.

Please fill in the oval accordingly.

***

Oh, and you will remember that referencing Vice President Joe's visit to Omaha, Tom White said of Biden,

"The folks in Omaha love that man."

Really?

Well then. Let us hammer that home, noting Lee Terry's closing commercial:



***

You may have seen last Sunday what the AP said about the NE-2 race:

"...most (political) publications and analysts have concluded that the seat is likely safe for Terry."

And we discussed the recent OWH poll the other day, which we believe surveyed six people and a cat in the offices of Barrett's Castle, and found that Tom White is the next Chairman of Ways and Means.

However, outside of that scientific poll, we looked at another group that we are sure has ALL the latest polls in their hands. And they also have lots and lots of cash in their pockets. And they dole out said cash when they think they have a shot of winning.

We speak of the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee (the DCCC).

In 2008 they poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into Nebraska's second district because they thought Jim Esch could knock off Lee Terry.

(Editor's note: They were wrong.)

But two years later?

In the final week of the "hotly contested" NE-2 race?

Not a nickel.

Oh, but they are spending money. In their Top 66 races they are dropping over $21 million this week.

But not in Nebraska's second.

Maybe they just didn't see the OWH poll?

ILLEGAL anti-recalling!

The anti-Mayor Suttle recall group, “Forward Omaha”, has a commercial up, via Joe Jordan’s YouTube site.

See it here:



Now, you remember Forward Omaha. It is run by a 2nd year Creighton Law student. Who apparently is a webmaster and a whiz on her Mac. All the while raising hundreds of thousands of dollars to create and telecast ads.

Hey look, the anti-recallers don’t what to show their faces, fine. You will note that the Mayor Suttle Recall Committee has had a number of public press conferences and have been public about their intentions and reasoning.

Forward Omaha, and the others? Well, we have heard Brad Ashford speaking from a back room. And that P.J. Morgan isn't into it.  And that Democrat sugar-daddy Dick Holland is willing to bankroll the whole matter.

But not much else, huh? [Ah, looks like they heard us!]

So now we hear that Forward Omaha will pay YOU $150 to...hmm...not sure. Take photos? Glower as people sign their name?

Here is what we want to say:

Please watch out for intimidation procedures by Forward Omaha paid thugs!


Forward Omaha may have paid GOONS trying to ILLEGALLY block your Constitutional rights to sign a petition!


Take photos of these paid Forward Omaha employees, and please report their illegal activity!

There. And we didn’t even need any high falutin’ computer animation to say the exact same thing as Forward Omaha did in their ad.

Oh, and you may note that the ad doesn’t seem to mention the awesome job that the Mayor is doing.

***

For those of you who have an insatiable need for politics, no matter what the cost...
Here is video of the 3rd District Congressional debate.



Enjoy.

***

And because we don’t always outwardly show our love for Northeast Nebraska, here is an endorsement of Governor Heineman by the Sioux City Journal.

***

One week.
Be sure to check back often for breaking and broken news.

Bitching and Polling

So here is the (incomplete) poll just posted on the OWH’s site for the Nebraska 2nd Congressional District race

It says:

Lee Terry (R): 44%
Tom White (D): 39% 
Undecided: 12%
Won’t Vote: 5%

But...those are “Registered Voters”, and not “Likely Voters”.
(Which is sort of skewed, considering they included the “Won’t Vote” part.)

But then when they just poll “Likely Voters” -- and if they have this data then why even bother with this "Registered Voter" part in the first place? -- then say:

"Terry’s lead grew to 8 percentage points among more committed voters — those who said they had already voted or definitely planned to vote."

Wait, his “lead grew”? Where did that lead grow from? Undecideds? White’s voters? So is that Terry 47% and White still at 39% and UD’s up to 17% with the Won’t Votes subtracted? (Or whatever scenario you want to skew?)

And who the hell cares about those who “Won’t Vote”?????
Last time we checked, “Won’t Vote” doesn’t end up in the final tallies.

Anyway, know this: This race ain’t 44-39, and there is no reason to even publish that.

But it may motivate some voters to get their butts to the polls (you know, other than those “Won’t Vote ones), so there you have it.

(And just as an aside:  At this time of year, lots and lots of interneters will be searching to see what the polling is in this race.  And they will come upon this poll.  And then they will say, "What the hell is this piece of crap?"    Publish a real poll next time.)

(And a note regarding the other OWH story on this race:  That poll does not indicate 12% "of voters" are undecided.  A voter is someone who votes, not who registers to vote.)

So kids, if you would like a little better indication of turnout, look at the best recent comparable midterm election -- 2006.

In that NE-2 race, turnout looked like this:
R: 88,787
D: 67,952
I: 25,743

That year had 20,000 more Republicans than Democrats turning out.
And in 2010, you can bet that 25K I's aren't going to go D.

Just to give you a little better idea.

**UPDATE**

And the new Lee Terry spot:



***

And woe is Omaha Mayor Jim Suttle.

Did the OWH catch him after a few Dr. Peppers the other day?

In case you didn’t read to the end of their article on the poor, poor Mayor, catch this quote:

“I'm running through the gantlet and can't see the end,” he said.

“We're in a period of bitch, moan and complain. We need ideas, answers and solutions.”

You got that, every Omahan who is upset with the Mayor’s actions and may sign the recall petition?

All you are doing is bitching, moaning and complaining. And the poor, poor Mayor just can’t see the end to his woes.

Now you can feel free to argue the merits of what Hizzhonor is...well...bitching about. And you should.

But politically, really? Those are the words he is using while sitting down with a reporter? Bitching?

Savvy, Mr. Mayor. Savvy.

And, while we are at it, “running the gantlet”?

(Wait, isn’t it “gauntlet”? Like the Clint Eastwood movie, “The Gauntlet”? You know, where Clint decks out the buss with steel plates, then has to drive it down the city street with about a hundred cops firing at him, until he reaches City Hall and punches the Mayor? Or something like that. It’s been a while. But great movie. And whatever happened to Sandra Locke? She was in, like, all of his movies. He couldn’t find a role for her in “Gran Torino”? Wait, what were we talking about? Oh yeah...)

So, again, what "gantlet" is the Mayor running through? A political one?  Or is the City is running the financial gantlet (or gauntlet)? Or Clint Eastwood is coming after him, like in “The Gauntlet”?

Because as far as not being able to “see the end”, well the Mayor is taking care of that with the tax increases. As he has told us allllllll along, he is an engineer. Identify the problem, then find the solution. And the Mayor found the easiest solution -- for him anyway -- higher taxes.

Didn’t take much thinking. End found. Done and doner.

Gantlet run.

But if it is a political gantlet to which he refers.  Well, then that's a “can’t stand the heat...” situation.

 Can’t handle the criticism? Don’t take the gig.

 This isn’t the City Council. It’s the Third Floor.

***

And then, about that poll the OWH is running about Suttle.

It says 47% say keep him in office, versus 39% who say throw him out and 14% undecided.

Yet, as we saw in more detail on the Terry-White poll, this is a poll of Registered Voters -- not Likely Voters.

And that is -- or can be -- a big fat difference.

Not to mention, what kind of a question is that right now anyway? The question should have been, “Are you going to sign the petition?” There is no vote right now, so until hurdle #1 is crossed, their question doesn’t matter.
[Correction: This question WAS asked -- with 31% saying they would sign -- statistically enough for a recall vote.]



And we will tell you this: Those that are involved in these matters say that if The Suttle Recall Committee gets the needed signatures, Suttle will be out on the vote. There is a LOT of confidence in that.

Oh, and that is where your Likely Voters versus Registered Voters really comes into play.

A brand new Dave

A new campaign spot by Governor Dave Heineman that we got our grubby mitts on.
See it here:



Campaign spot ipsa loquitur.
(And, hey how about that cameo by smilin' Rick Sheehy!)

***

Now you may know that the aforementioned Governor sent a letter to SecState Hillary Clinton questioning that Canadian oil pipeline.  As did Senator Mike Johanns.  (And Ben Nelson may have jumped on the bandwagon as well.)

Of course Dick Holland's "fringe special interest group", Bold Nebraska has been miserable about the whole pipe ever since someone suggested they could jump on the issue.

Wait, Bold Nebraska is a "fringe special interest group"? Who ever would say such a thing???

Well, that would be former Nebraska Democrat Party chief Barry Rubin and the Big Labor Unions that support the pipeline, according to the New York Times.

The are making phone calls across the state telling Nebraskans how awesome the pipeline is and how fringey Bold and their buddies are.

First Jane Kleeb loves Fox News, and now Barry and the Unions hate her.

Politics is awesome...

***

And over at the Watchdog blog, Joe Jordan gets anti-Suttle recall chief Brad Ashford to tell him that Hal Daub won't run for Mayor and that Suttle is a liar, but that's OK because, hey, EVERYBODY lies!

What we DIDN'T get out of Ashford was a promise that he WON'T run for Mayor if the recall succeeds.

(Waitasecond! Maybe that's his master plan! Tank the anti-recall job then sliiiip into the Mayor's office after the recall! Subversively genius!)

***

And Go Huskers!

The Recall Starts NOW

It is 9:30 am on Thursday, October 21, 2010 and the recall of Omaha Mayor Jim Suttle has begun.

Well, it did anyway, depending on when you read this.

Though of course, that doesn’t mean Suttle will necessarily be kicked out of office.

There is a little matter of 30K signatures.
And then an election.

Interesting political times, nonetheless.

The OWH framed the matter today with an interesting point by Douglas County Election Commissioner Dave Phipps: Back when people were getting signatures for Mike Boyle’s recall, they were able to approach people right outside of the polling places.

Now, they have to be back 200 feet, where the political signs are. In other words, at many locales, voters will have to make an effort to go to the signers, as opposed to them being on the way. And if the weather sucks that day, it’s even more of an effort.

**UPDATE**
We have been informed that in the 1986-87 Boyle recall, signature gatherers DID have to stand back by the yard signs and were NOT able to stand "right outside the polling place", as stated by Phipps.


We are attempting to obtain the exact rules from back then.

We will be interested to see how this turns up and turns out.

***

Hey, speaking of the OWH, they have “officially” come out against the recall.

But did you get a load of the photos they are using of Suttle on their recall articles?

Here they are (with the one above):

Now compare that to the photo they use of Governor Dave Heineman :

We are not sure if that’s a conscience effort to make Suttle look bad, but in any case, that’s the effect. Worth a thousand words, and all that.

***

And speaking of symbols, how about the logo for “Forward Omaha” one of the anti-recall efforts. (My that’s professional looking website for a group run by a lowly law student...)

Now, tell us again why the Austin Powers “Male” necklace is being used to push Jim Suttle?

 Are we to understand that the Mayor has an awesome tuft of chest hair? (Now try to get THAT image out of your noggin...)

Rumor du Jour: Secretary post for Hagel?

The little rumor birds have been whispering in our ears lately.

And the latest...sort of random...is regarding... the U.S. Commerce Department.

OK, OK, sit down.  Catch your breath.  OK.

Well, here is what we have heard:

The current Secretary of Commerce, Gary Locke, will be going down with the economic ship post election.  Other reason involved?  We have no idea.

In any case, who will take his place?  (Hint: there's a reason you are reading about it on this blog.)

Former Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel!

You will remember that just a few months ago Hagel, pretty much out of nowhere, endorsed Democratic candidate Joe Sestak in the Pennsylvania Senate race.  At the time, many wondered if that was his initiation rite to get into the Obama Administration.  (Now all he has left is four Jägermeister shots, and he's in!)

Is this our answer?

Well, if this doesn't turn out we won't be surprised.  Hagel, whose expertise was on foreign policy while in the Senate, has been rumored for various spots in the Obama Admin for a while.  And while Secretary of State never seemed likely, SecDef has been rumored often.

So now...Commerce?  Some have suggested that spot works his foreign policy knowledge better, in theory.  Though Hagel has always been a Free Trader, and that tilt may have questionable hold in this White House.

So is Commerce the consolation prize if Defense is not open for him?

Maybe.

Or maybe this is just another trial balloon in the long, long history of DC ballooning.

But if it flies, you heard on Leavenworth Street first!

Terry vs White on the TV

Tom White and Lee Terry have competing ads up right now. We have ‘em both here for you to view.

First White’s:



And Terry’s response:



Here’s the thing: This hasn’t exactly been a theme of Tom White’s all campaign long. It’s just sort of throw up there. “We need to have our annual senior-scare spot! Get a generic one from the DCCC!”

And then Terry whacks White with the point that White supports the law that cuts Medicare.

And last time we checked, these type of spots didn’t get Jim Esch over the hump either.

So we just chock this up to the sort of desperation mode the White camp is in. Nothing is sticking, so go to some old trope that everyone else has always used.

Honestly, we expected more and better from the White camp than this. Something original. Something hard-hitting and relevant. And at least consistent with the campaign they have been running.

Not this.

Oh well.

***

Joe Jordan takes stock of last night’s debate between Terry and White, and calls it a clear win for Terry.

See his report here:



Did Tom White not know the story of him flying lobbyists across the state would not come up? Again, no response prepared? Brother.

***

*UPDATE*

...and the latest Terry mailer on the subject...

***
Less than two weeks left kids.

Turning Terry

Lots of campaign news over the past three days. Let us review.

On Friday CQ Politics moved Nebraska’s second District from “Likely Republican” to “Safe Republican”.

(Pssst! Lee Terry is the Republican.)

***

On Saturday, CNN updated their list of the 100 most vulnerable House races.
Lee Terry was on that list....

Was.

He is now on a new list:
Dropped from the CNN 100.

***

Saturday’s Wall Street Journal said,

"Democrats say they still have a narrow path to retaining the House. Their plan includes picking up four or five seats that are now held by Republicans, winning all of the other races that tilt their way and then taking the lion's share of the true toss-up contests."

The article goes on to state:

"The plan also includes winning several GOP-held seats--in Illinois, Florida and Delaware, where President Barack Obama and the first lady visited this week, and in Louisiana and Hawaii."

And NOT on that list.

NE-2.

***

And then on Sunday, the OWH endorsed Terry.
Yet even with that, many think Terry will still win! (snork)

***

And the latest fundraising numbers came in. The White camp was pretty excited that the Cash On Hand numbers were close.

And that’s nice if you haven’t spent any cash up to now.

But note a few things.

First, Tom White’s Vice President Biden fundraiser was a bomb.

(That’s “A” bomb, not “The” bomb.)

White received $37,817 from the committee that was formed for the Biden event -- it was a joint event with the state Democrats.

However, take a look at the expenditures: White paid $10,700 to the DCCC for “operations” to reimburse for costs of Biden, security etc.   Then they transferred $14,000 to the “Nebraska Victory Committee”, most likely for start-up/operations costs of the committee as it fundraised, rented the Field Club etc.

In short, White raised $37,800 but spent $24,700 to do it -- netting him a measly $13,100 for the visit.

Ugh.

To put this all in perspective, compare this to Jim Esch from 2008.

You remember Jim Esh? Lowly Jim Esch? The candidate that was sooo much inferior to the mighty Tom White?

Well, Esch raised $340,087 in the same quarter in 2008 (July 1 - Sept 30). Tom White raised $237,892.

Oh, and this quarter, Terry raised $445,017.

And for the race so far, Terry has raised about twice as much as White.

***

Of course, even with all of that, we still suggest that you go and vote. It’s a good idea.

Mr. Holland's Sourpuss

(Did you know that nothing rhymes with "opus".  Well anyway...)

Omaha's Dick Holland has decided to fund the effort to not Recall Mayor Jim Suttle.

And that's fine.

He can obviously spend his cash any way he wants -- and he has.

We just wonder why the various MSM sites, like the local fishwrap among others, don't also cite Holland as the sugar-daddy for the state's main ultra-liberal activist group, run by "Democrat Activist" and protester Jane Fleming Kleeb.  (And then there's the constant reference to her's as an "environmental group", as if they're just about keeping tuna dolphin-free.)  It's not as if he's just been building music venues with his cash.

And then there's the anti-recallers new mouthpiece...Brad Ashford.

OK, let's just come out and say it:  Is there a reason there is an "R" after Ashford's name?
He wants to be against the recall, fine.
But to take a lead role -- THE lead role -- on behalf of Suttle?
Party affiliation should mean something.

***

Another debate between Lee Terry and Tom White.

Loads of excitement.

You can watch it in two parts via KETV here and here.

A few telling lines on policy issues from the tête-à-tête:

First this line from Tom White:

I will not rebuild nations — Medieval Muslim nations — at the cost of our citizens at home.

How about Medieval Christian, Jewish or Buddhist nations, Tom?  Tell us again why you needed to include the word Muslim?

Now kiddies, had Lee Terry made that statement, Al Sharpton would have jet-packed into Omaha to picket Terry's mailbox this morning declaring him a bigoted racist.

We will wait (without holding in our minty-fresh breath) for all the liberals to condemn him.

***

And then there is White's professed desire to have the government set drug prices -- and Terry's response that the market should control this.

This is what you call a major difference between Republicans and Democrats -- Democrats like Tom White.  He thinks 1) that drug companies are evil and 2) that the government knows better on how to price their product.

These are the same drug companies that have turned AIDS from a death sentence into a controllable disease. They are companies that make a profit and succeed on the merits of their products.  They are not charities.  They employ expert scientists to come up with amazing discoveries, and then sell those discoveries, and use that money to fund more discoveries.  And they pay those scientist and the people who make their equipment and allllll the rest of those involved in a company.

And the more and more and more restrictions and regulations you put on them, the fewer and fewer innovations you will get out of them.  It's called the free market.  And Democrats like Tom White fail to see that and figure they're the smartest guys in the room and demagogue the issues.

If you've got no other reason to get off your duff and go to the voting booth on Election Day, there is a major, major one right there.

***

And, for what it's worth, Esquire magazine has anointed Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson one of The 10 Worst Members of Congress.

Congratulations Senator.  Look for your celebratory ham in the mail.

***

And GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Huskers!

Meisterious ways...

Democrat Gubernatorial Candidate Mike Meister has an ad out.

Well, in theory anyway. Here is the video:



Now, we THINK this is Meister.
But we are really not sure.

He never identifies himself.
He never says his name.
He never says that he is running for Governor.
And he never tells us anything about himself.

So this is how Mike Meister is introducing himself to the state? With a mishmashed attack ad?

And it really is a convoluted spot in so many ways. Let's pick a few.

***

First, what's with the outfit? The rolled up sleeves and suspenders? Oh, we get it. He is going for the whole "country lawyer" look.

Well, we liked it better when it was done by Newman on Seinfeld.

OK, so let's hit one more visual before we get to what he is trying to say.

What are these (yellow circled) things?

Are they supposed to represent something?
Are we supposed to take out eyes off of what he is saying and look at them?  Or the numbers he is pointing at?  Or the arrows?  Do they represent something that he is talking about?

Ya follow?

It's called clutter kids. And when you can't even make-out what it is, then it's more like jetsam.

So, because we are here to help, we have zoomed in on them.

 

OK, we get the first one. An Uncle Sam hat. And....it is...hmm...well, we guess it is the federal stimulus money from "Uncle Sam." Gotcha.  Sorta.

OK, so the next one. This one took us a while.

At first we thought it was some sort of nude figurine next to a rock.
Maybe Patrick Star?
A melted broken heart?

After much zooming an considering, we finally figured it out.
It's a broken piggy bank! Get it! The "cash reserves" were in a piggy bank and then it was perfectly cracked in half, like an egg, and the then the two halves were put back next to each other except a piece is missing.

Or something. Anywho, it's One Big Distraction.

***

So, onto whatever else he is trying to say (and we say "he", meaning "the man in the video", who may or may not be Mike Meister).

So first he says that "In six years Dave Heineman has grown his budget 29%."

So, now it is "his" budget? Well, there's an interesting take. And wait a minute, 29% goes up at a 45 degree angle on that chart? And there are 7 bars on that six year chart! And the arrow just keeps going! Does that mean Heineman gets to keep governing? Well, thanks there, mister.

So back to the little math test -- and this one took us even longer than the broken vase pig.

He talks about the $1.17 billion, then has a bunch of numbers below that, that come up to $1.559 billion.

And the whole time we're thinking, "Wait, 1.17B + 554 M + 254 M + 751M doesn't equal 1.559B..."

Because we heard him say, "...his budget would be a lot bigger than 751 million dollars".

Wait, $1.117B IS bigger than $751M.

So, we listened, and listened, and played it backwards a few times, ran it through a dictaphone and finally enhanced it with some tin cans and twine.

And what he actually says -- No, MUMBLES -- is, "...his budget HOLE would be a lot bigger...".

Except that it doesn't sound like, "budget hole would".  It sounds like, "budgehowooh".

So sue us (country lawyer) for not understanding this scholarly diatribe.

***

And then there's the big finish. Er...non-sequitur.

Because at the end, as he approaches the screen (and we are expecting him to tell us to "Snap into a Slim Jim!")...

...he yells at us, "Where's our money Dave!"

Um...because...THAT is what that whole math problem was about?

The gist of the ad (we will help you here) is that the Governor would have a bigger shortfall were it not for the stimulus. So, we know already that "our money" is in that first part of the budget, right?

It's not like he was saying, "Our taxes are super high, but the money has all disappeared!" That's not his point. So the "where's our money" has nothing to do with anything in this ad.

And then he flips the board and stalks away...

Showing...what it that? Is that the team logo?

WE see a sort of "MEISTER" but under that it seems to say "COVEKNUR".

And then under that, it's a huge "B" BOYLE (hey who is the top of the ticket here?), and that person seems to be up for "LT, COVERHOX".

(Here's a crazy idea guys: use your dumb chalk drawing, but fade it into your actual logo on the screen. Hire some kid with a Mac.)

You know, but other than all that, awesome spot.

(Oh, and we liked the original one starring Richard Carter a lot better.)

Terry - White Debate: Zzzzzzzzz

Before we plow into the debate between Lee Terry and Tom White, let’s look at the issue that voters have actually seen:

The Tom White commercial (thanks to Dayton Headlee):



And, to follow up, the Lee Terry camp’s response:



It would have been nice if we didn’t have to do this Zapruder film version. Unfortunately, Tom White has not put his ad up on his YouTube page -- like he has with every other ad.  (Wonder why that is...)

***

So like we said, those ads are what many people are actually going to base their votes on.

So why not watch the debate?

Well, that’s a nice theory. It’s an hour long. There is no audience.
And it’s like watching water sublimate.

Let’s face it, the average voter just ain’t going to watch it.

What should be done?

The videos should be broken down to issues, so people can watch individual points.

Next, the OWH needs to have a political columnist who will give a review of the debate.
Because right now only KFAB's Tom Becka is giving political commentary in Omaha, and his is practically the final word.

Well, except for the blogs (blog) of course.

So what was our view?

Well, here’s the deal: Tom White needed to hit a grand slam home run to shake things up. He did not do it.

We are not going to try to crow that Terry dominated, because he didn’t.  And though the usual suspects will try to tell you that White killed, they will be wrong.

Terry and White both hit a few singles. And then, generally, the question concluded and the inning ended. Each took the side of an issue, made a decent argument about it, and then...that was it. (For sixty, life-draining, minutes mind you...)

Tom White’s theme was, “Lee Terry has been in Congress for 12 years, so he is the reason that everything sucks.”

Lee Terry’s theme was, “I’m not going to go along with the Obama-Pelosi plan.”

And White made the one defining point at about the 53 minute mark (yes, we watched that far). He says that President Obama inherited all his troubles from President Bush and the Republican Congress.

So, Tom White wants to further the Presidency of Barack Obama and the the policies of the Democrat controlled Congress.

And if that’s what you want, Voter Dude, then Tom White is your man.

If not, then Lee Terry is your guy.

And there you have it.

(And we just saved you from watching this for 3,600 seconds.)

Debate Day

Lee Terry and Tom White debate today in a race that is quickly slipping away as any chance for a Dem pickup.

Says who?

Only the Liberal/Leftist/Progressive daily Bible, the New York Times.

The NYT says that there aren't many "Republicans in the Cross Hairs", but a few races are in-play.

NE-2 ain't listed.

But is that really any surprise?

Remember back in 2008, when everyone was all Hopey-Changey?  The DCCC was pouring buckets of cash in for Jim Esch -- $200,000 a week by some estimates.  And this for a guy the local Dems dismissed as a muuuuch lesser candidate than the mighty Tom White.

But this year?  Meh.

The national Dems aren't supporting White.  We see much fewer local Dems that support him.  And his recent ad (which STILL hasn't been uploaded to the web by their campaign) will have many more running away from him.

You won't see Lee Terry ease up for the next three weeks.

But you also won't see some sort of groundswell for Tom White.  It is just not there.

***

Feel free to decide for yourself the strength of the arguments for the Mayor Suttle Recall.

But if Councilman Ben Gray is any indication, the Recall group has already won the battle of ideas.

As Joe Jordan notes from a Zapruderesque video of a video, Gray's argument:  why racism of course!

And in a very short while you will see Jeremy Aspen called a Nazi and Mike Simmonds will be referred to as Pol Pot.

Because those without any ideas or ability to form an argument resort to the easy name calling and use it to stir up their base.

This, by the way, is Page 1 of the Democrat playbook if you look down at your copy.

(Oh, and like long lines, no parking and no secret ballot?  Then the 2012 Nebraska Democrat caucuses are for you!)

***

The OWH says that they will be playing the Terry-White debate at 1:00 PM today, and it's on-demand on Cox.  We will probably have some discussion here afterwards.

See you then!

Newer Gov Poll

Rasmussen Reports has their latest poll out on the Nebraska Governor race.

In case you were uncertain, Governor Dave is in good shape.

Querying 500 likely voters they found:

66% Dave Heineman (R)

24% Mike Meister (D)

3% Some Other Candidate

6% Not Sure

That is up 5% from Heineman's numbers back on September 7th.

Heineman gets 91% of Republicans and 27% of Democrats.
Meister gets 61% of Democrats.

Favorable/Unfavorable:

Heineman: 71/25

Meister: 30/47

71% also approve of the job Heineman is doing.

Interesting notes:

Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party Movement?

Yes: 28%

No: 54%

Undecided: 18%

89% of Tea Partiers support Heineman.

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

Approve: 31%

Disapprove: 66%

Absorb and discuss.

Terry -- and JOHANNS -- fire back

A new lee Terry ad is up responding to the despicable new ad by Tom White.

But for a twist, this ad features Nebraska Senator Mike Johanns.
See it here:



Completely BRUTAL response to White.

Kudos to Mike Johanns for stepping up on this.

If you haven't seen the White spot yet, well, that's because he hasn't posted it anywhere on the internet for you to see because he is obviously embarrassed by it. It establishes the fact that White is in complete desperation mode. The political equivalent to throwing fists in the parking lot (then running before the cops come).

It is gutter politics, and Nebraskans don't stand for it.

Good response by Mike Johanns and good response by the Terry camp.

Oh, and if I was Terry, I'd seriously consider canceling the debates with White. Terry would be better off staying out of White's gutter.

LeeTeeVee - Man on the Street

New Lee Terry ad that has been running a few days. See it here:



Good Man on the Street stuff.

And it is amazing that Terry is able to produce an ad without quoting unnamed sources from East coast gossip rags. What a feat.

(More to come on that. Maybe.)

DaveTV: Heineman on the air

Governor Dave is up with his first ad of the 2010 campaign. Leavenworth Street swung a copy and you can see it here:



Nice straightforward piece.

And we understand that the Heineman camp has a few bucks to keep this and other spots rolling.

His opponent, maybe not so much.

***

We noted the other day that the Democrat Gub candidate, Mike Meister has decided that the way to get elected is to try the old, “Those SOBs from Eastern Nebraska are trying to steal from you!” line, while in the panhandle. In short:

I grew up in the Panhandle, I’m a Scottsbluff native, I understand our issues probably better than most, and we have an opportunity here in the Panhandle to elect a person who understands our issues, whose willing to fight for us, who willing to not let the eastern politicians take advantage of us.

That’s a hell of a way to campaign as a statewide candidate, Mr. Meister.

So to be completely childish, we would just like to point out the importance of a candidate controlling the media that is delivered. In this case, Gub candidate Meister via the Scottsbluff Star Herald: (click photo to enlarge)

***

And as we were reading a translated Nebraska political story, we came across this one as well, for your Thursday night football related enjoyment.

Former football manager Lou Holtz is propelling support — with votes and with income — for Republicans using for Congress.

In a fundraising e-mail sent Tuesday on interest of a National Republican Congressional Committee, Holtz pronounced GOP leaders in a House are good positioned to “fire Nancy Pelosi” in Nov though “they can’t find a finish section but your support.” The message, filled with football references, asked supporters to give money to assistance Republicans constraint a infancy on Nov. 2.

“We are late into a fourth entertain of a midterm elections and a NRCC needs your evident assistance to expostulate a Republican Party to victory,” a former Notre Dame manager said.

Um...and Go Huskers!

***UPDATE***

And see the new spot by Congressman Adrian Smith, which we also got our mits on:



Good summary piece.

Keep up the good work Adrian!

WhoIs running Jim Suttle’s campaign?

The other day we noted a familiar name came up on the JimSuttle.com “WhoIs” registry for the website.

It was “OmahaMatt@(L. St. is hiding the email address to be polite).”

We noted that oftentimes the WhoIs domain info is hidden using a proxy service. This isn’t uncommon when registering domains, but the Suttle camp hadn’t done this.

And, as a matter of fact, the site info had been updated in August of 2010.

Well whaddaya know, but as of yesterday, JimSuttle.com’s domain registration on WhoIs is now by proxy with all of that information hidden.

Is someone suddenly trying to hide something?

Lucky for Leavenworth Street that we took screenshots of that info (for just such a situation), so it is NOT hidden for you, reader!

Here it is (we blocked OmahaMatt’s full email address):

Now, you can see that under the “Administrative Contact” info, it lists “Suttle, Jim”, but OmahaMatt’s email address.

But, let’s look at another website WhoIs domain registration, where OmahaMatt turns up. Here is the WhoIs for Clear Communication Partners, the group Suttle used for his Mayoral campaign, run by Gary DiSilvestro and Matt Samp:

You can see there that the “Administrative Contact” is “Samp, M”, whose email address is, of course, “OmahaMatt@...”.

***

So after that fun little game of hide the domain info, the question is, Who is running Jim Suttle’s campaign against the recall?

Is Matt Samp on the team?

Because here is the deal: Jim Suttle himself said that Samp shouldn’t be involved in Omaha politics:

"It doesn't make any difference whether it's perception or reality -- treat them the same," says Suttle. "It's time to part company and I did."

Or did he?

Look, voters can decide if Samp should be allowed to be involved in Omaha politics, or whatever else.

But, it was the Mayor of Omaha who said Samp WILL NOT be involved.

So the question remains: Is Jim Suttle continuing to pay Matt Samp or isn’t he?

We will sit here quietly and wait for the response.

(Click here to see back Leavenworth Street posts regarding Suttle and Samp.)

Rothenberg: NE-2 “Safe Republican”

On Friday, the Rothenberg Political Report changed their assessment of the Nebraska 2nd District race between Lee Terry and Tom White from “Favored Republican” to “Safe Republican”.

(His charts go Toss Up - Lean - Favored - Safe.)

(If you followed our Twitter feeds, you would have known this three days ago...)

Is this definitive? Of course not. We are sure Stuart Rothenberg has been wrong before.

But note that it’s not “Favored”. And it’s not “Lean”.

And it sure as heck ain’t “Toss Up”.

Keep that in mind as you continue to hear MSM outlets talk about the heated race in the 2nd.

Strangely they're not talking about the other "Safe Republican" races in the 1st and 3rd Districts...

***

As we also Tweeted the other day, KFAB cited WheatFields restaurant's new receipt featuring the Omaha restaurant tax: Mayor’s Tax.

Ron Popp is making his point.

***

We aren’t sure what to make of this, but we’re just passing it along.

A reader pointed us to the WhoIs info on the site “JimSuttle.com”. That is where you find who registered the website, etc. Oftentimes, groups will use the anonymous registration feature for a site. Not with Suttle’s campaign site.

So here is the interesting note: The site registration was just updated in August of this year.

And the email contact is someone named, “OmahaMatt”.

Now that could be just about anyone named, “Matt”. Anyone right? Or maybe they just haven’t updated it from last time.

Maybe. Or maybe not.