Halloween 2008 Separated at Birth!

Ahhhoooooooooooooowwww!!!

Happy Halloween all you Leavenworth Street readers!  On this super scary day, like last year, we offer up to you a chilling example of some Nebraska pols who were, tragically, scarrilly Separated at Birth from their true twin!

It's frightening, so let's get right to it...

2nd District Rep. Lee Terry and The Mummy!

Democrat Congressional candidate Jim Esch and Bigfoot!

Governor Dave Heineman and Casper the Friendly Ghost!

GOP Senate candidate, and former Mayor, Governor and Secretary of Agriculture, Mike Johanns and Iron Man!

Democrat Senate candidate Scott Kleeb and the Wichita State Shockers mascot!

and finally...

Omaha City Councilman Jim Suttle and The Phantom of the Opera!

Happy Halloween everyone!  Drive safely!

LT-TV : The Esch Résumé

New Lee Terry ad, entitled "Checks" that is on the airwaves right now.
See it here:



We have been wondering when a spot like this was going to hit. This is one of the biggest items that voters may not know about Esch.

Not only that Esch is a trust-fund baby.
Not only that Esch receives government checks for NOT farming.

But that Esch simply has no significant employment history over the past three years.

At some point you say, "Jim Esch wants to go straight from unemployed party-boy to Congressman?  Wait a second..."

An effective spot (though we're not crazy about the overly busy graphics).

***

New Mike Johanns ad up as well, entitled, "Newspapers Tell The Story".

See it here:

Nice, self explanatory endorsements spot.

(We don't wanna say this ad cost nothing to put together, but it's possible the MJ camp is turning a profit on this whole thing...)

***

And to lighten things up, remember Halloween 2007? Maybe we'll have something similar tomorrow...

LT-TV - Veterans and Endorsements

Lee Terry has two new fifteen second TV ads up.
The first on Veterans, the second on the OWH's endorsement.

Take a look at them below.






We like the 15 second format. With all the ads flying by now, it allows the overlaoded viewer to commit less time, but still get the full message.

And, after all the bull Jim Esch has been chucking about Terry's record on veterans issues, it's nice to see him hit back.

NE-2 stays RED

The voter registration tallies for Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District are out (as opposed to those for just Douglas County). They show that the 2nd is still a majority an advantage Republican district:

Of course this shows that, assuming party-line voting, this election will come down to the large number of Independents.

One interesting dynamic in this is the turnout of voters. In 2004 it looked something like this:
R - 72.1%,
D - 65.9%,
I - 56.4%.

Will things tighten up this election? Could be. We'll see.

The reality of the 10,000 registration advantage for Republicans in heavily military Sarpy County also shows one of the big reasons Jim Esch is trying to frame Lee Terry as soft on veterans support. Of course those are based on out-and-out falsehoods of the Esch camp, but nevertheless...

***

New NRCC ad out entitled, "Jim Esch Doesn't Care About Us". Note that it's to the tune from "Curb Your Enthusiasm".

See it here:

***

On that note of curbing one's enthusiasm (in this case, the Dems) we'd like to take a look at the recent "Cook Political Report" prognostications.

In the latest from Cook, they draw the NE-2 race between Terry and Esch as a "toss-up".

That's an interesting take. We don't see it that way, but we suppose you could argue it.

But from Cook, we would hope to have some data behind such a claim. It seems to be based on the spending of the parties, Obama's spending and, most notably, a recent Esch internal poll that no one has actually seen.

So is it worth even giving that sort of "analysis" any credence?

Well, let's look at their analysis of the Nebraska Senate race:

In find Mike Johanns ahead they said,

Secretary Mike Johanns has seemed in command of the race since the day he announced his candidacy.

There has been a frustrating lack of reliable public polling in this race...

Our sense is that Johanns is over 50 percent, while Kleeb trailing somewhere in the mid- to high- 30s.

So basically it comes down to, here's the gist were feeling so....here are some numbers. Not based on anything.

Are they correct about that race? Maybe. Maybe not. But when main stream media outlets point to Cook and say, "Cook says it's a toss up!", they don't follow that up with, "Of course it's based on some sort of gut reaction and not any poling data."

As we've said here on Leavenworth Street, we like more information rather than less. We just ask that if it's the "less" side, the media restrain themselves.

Fire Fighters endorse Terry

Today, the Omaha Professional Fire Fighters Union endorsed Lee Terry for re-election to Congress.

Darren Bates, president of the local union said,

"Lee Terry has always been there for Omaha’s fire fighters. We’re going to be there for Lee this November.

 He has been a staunch supporter of public safety issues since his days as a member of the Omaha City Council."

The Local 385 is affiliated with the International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF), a union of the AFL-CIO.

Endorsements have been flying fast and furious these past few weeks. But endorsements like this, from a traditionally Democrat group are certainly a plus to Terry's camp.

***

The DCCC has a new ad out attacking Lee Terry, briefly entitled, "Lee Terry's Big Government: He's Part Of The Problem". See it here:

These ads always sort of crack us up. On the one hand the Dems scream, "Lee Terry hasn't DONE anything!"

Then we're offered the ominous screen:
"Lee Terry's Washington"

We always figured it was Lee pulling all the strings. But now we know. And HOW do we know? Because Lee is raking in all that craaaazzee fine Congressman payday!  

(Did you know that Speaker Nancy Pelosi had nothing to do with this? Well now you do...apparently.)

Again, this is a stupidly generic ad. But then what did you expect? An ad touting Jim Esch's wealth of experience?

***

And speaking of Jim Esch, a Leavenworth Street reader was at a recent talk Esch gave to First National Bank employees.

We'l let our reader tell it:

Esch was at First National Bank on Friday to speak at a PAC coffee event.

While it's assumed that I am biased, hard core Democrat co-workers that I spoke with afterward stated they were not impressed with him avoiding most of the questions.

One even stated that he was voting for Esch before and changed his mind after his poor performance.

As we have continued to say, Lee Terry's secret weapon in this election is...Jim Esch.

Esch, falling off the table

From Jim Esch's website:

Energy:

All options are on the table and I believe that the best solution needs to be a bipartisan solution. (Emphasis added.)

But.... here is Esch in Sunday's OWH:

(Esch) opposes drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, saying he doesn't think it can be done in an environmentally safe manner.

"My feeling on ANWR is to take that off the table," he said. (Emphasis added.)

Wait a... what?
We're a week away from Election Day and NOW he decides that we shouldn't drill in ANWR?

Well, then again, this is the guy who two years ago said PAC money makes you evil, then this year said he'll take PAC money.

And this is the guy who two years ago scoffed at those who were against stem-cell research, then this year decided to be against it.

But "everything's on the table" has been his line for the entire campaign -- and is STILL on his website.

Hmmm, wonder if it had anything to do with the half million dollars from the DCCC. Wonder what other positions Jim has that can be bought. 

(Or a better question, are there any that can't be bought?...)

***

Esch has a new ad out as well, entitled, "Wrong Direction". See it here:

Another negative ad by Esch, misstating Lee Terry's positions once more. 

Repeats his claims about Social Security and health care for Veterans. The second claim is so disingenuous that frankly, Esch should be prepared for whatever else should come his way.

As the OWH explains, Esch's claims on that issue are downright filthy.

***

For your viewing pleasure, here are three Lee Terry mailers that are out and about. (Note that these shots show both the front and back of the cards.) 

All are pretty self explanatory.

***

A Mike Johanns "web-ad" entitled, "Amercan Energy" for your viewing pleasure. 

Since it's pretty much you and people who go to MJ's website that will see this, consider yourself privileged and "in the know".  (But then you already knew that...)

***

Finally, just to be complete, a giant New Yorker article about Chuck Hagel, focusing mainly on his split with John McCain. It's 99% stuff you've already heard before.

Hagel's main beef seems to be that the Bush Admin doesn't listen to him like, say, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama did. Does he take it all personally and get petty about it? Let's hear Obama-endorser, Mrs. Hagel tell it:

"We don’t breathe the same air as Cheney or Rove. We cancel social engagements if we look at the list and see that they’re on it."

So there ya go.

By the way, Hagel called the troop surge in Iraq, "the most dangerous foreign-policy blunder in this country since Vietnam".

Since he completely whiffed on that, where does that put Hagel, and his predictions now?

Johnny the Jet endorses Lee Terry

Johnny Rodgers has cut an endorsement ad asking the North Omaha community to vote for Lee Terry.

See it here:



Couple this with State Senator Ernie Chamber's admonition of Jim Esch at a North O rally earlier this year...

Chambers attacked politicians who pledged support for the event but did not march. He had especially scathing words for Jim Esch, the Democratic candidate for the House from the Omaha-dominated 2nd District.

“I could get an axe murderer, I could get a serial rapist and put him up here and say ‘this is Jim Esch, vote for him, he’s here with you.’ and everybody would clap,” said Chambers. “They don’t know what he looks like. Is Jim Esch here now? How are you going to vote for him? They sent a flunkie because black people are so dumb and so easily tricked that the white man sends his flunkie.”

Esch was present at the initial gathering but left before the march began.

...and you have an interesting dynamic at play.

Dems point out that many of the new voter registrants this year come from North O, attracted by the Obama candidacy. But could this be an actual trend for Obama-Terry voters?

No idea if Johnny the Jet is an Obama voter, but it certainly adds an interesting twist.

***

New Mike Johanns ad here, entitled..."Governor Heineman". We will let you guess who it stars...



Of the pols in Nebraska today, Heineman has one of the highest approvals ratings of them all. In fact, by state, he's one of the most popular Governors in America.

Always nice to have him on your side...

***

Finally, this from a Leavenworth Street reader who is flumoxxed that the press has asked no questions about Scott Kleeb's latest manifesto.

Here are the reader's comments after each of Kleeb's bullet points:

• I will not vote for any new spending unless there is a specific way to pay for it.
  

(Which means he wants to raise taxes)

• I will not accept Senate health care until all Nebraskans have access to health care.
  

(This is stupid. Members of Congress are under the Federal Employees Health Benefits Plan, the same menu of health insurance and managed-care options offered to all federal employees -- including your postal worker. Or, if he doesn't take it he's a shining example of many 30-somethings who CHOOSE to go insurance-less, thereby burdening taxpayers with their health care when they could have afforded it all along.)

• I will not accept a pay raise unless the budget is balanced.
  

(This isn't something he can turn down. It happens automatically. He can give it away, I guess)

• My first bill will be the "American Jobs & Energy Act," which will end tax breaks for companies that move jobs overseas and use the savings to create renewable energy jobs here in Nebraska.
  

(There are no ‘savings’ when repealing tax incentives. The increase would probably be used to pay for increased spending)

• I will not take junkets or gifts from lobbyists.
  

(Pretty much already a rule)

• I will publish a list of all targeted projects I support, and put it on the internet.
  

(Again, pretty much already a rule)

• I will publish my entire schedule on the internet and not conduct any secret, closed door meetings.
  

(If it is such a big deal, then why isn’t he doing that already -- Manhattan, San Francisco, Chicago, DC?)

• I will publish an Annual Accountability Report and conduct an annual independent audit of my Senate Office, just like businesses do.
  

(Great way to spend taxpayer dollars.)

• I will host an "Ask the Senator" online meeting every three months.
  

(So, if you are not Internet savvy – like many older or rural folks – you are out of luck?)

• My wife and I will keep our family right here in Hastings, Nebraska and our two little girls will attend public school here."
  

("And if I lose, we are so gone.")

Kleeb-TV: Huh?

Scott Kleeb has a new ad out, apparently. It's entitled "Photos", and you can see it here:

So I know what you're asking yourself, whether you are a Republican, Democrat, Independent or Bull Moose:

What the hell was that?

We don't want to be too harsh on ol' Scott here, but buddy, you ain't thirty points ahead.

The message here was....um...what was with holding the picture cards again?
At the end of all this, we may just have to do a quick video of all the Kleeb banalities, but...geez.

Just for kicks and giggles, here is a collage of all the photos Kleeb is holding.

Ohhhh, NOW we get it.  They figured if a picture is worth a thousand words, and the spot has twenty-four pictures in it, including an extra two of Scott, well then that's like an extra 26,000 words jammed into the spot!

OK, Johanns campaign: Sit down, sit down. Don't get overconfident. Kleeb could swoop in with a legitimate ad any time now.

We'll just sit here and wait...

(H/t to NNN on the ad.)

***

The Lee Terry camp announced today that they raised another $115,000 during the past two weeks, to give them over $300,000 cash on hand with two weeks to go.

And we see that the Douglas County Election Commissioner is reporting that Douglas County now has a majority of Democrats registered by about 2,600 over Republicans, with another 60,000 Independents.

Of course the missing info there is rest of the 2nd District -- the portion of Sarpy County, that includes Bellevue (as also noted by ABC's Jake Tapper).

As in all elections, its all going to be about GOTV. (That's "Get Out The Vote" to you and me.)

***

A couple of resources on the web.

The Terry-Esch Omaha Press Club debate is available on the NetNebraska site, if you're into that sort of thing.

And the National Taxpayers Union has a report out on which Senate candidate, according to the proposals he has laid out, would spend more taxpayer money.

We'll give you a hint:
Kleeb would boost spending by $19.9 billion
Johanns by $6.2 billion...

DCCC-TV: Same song, second verse

The DCCC has a new ad out on behalf of Jim Esch, entitled, "Lee Terry: Whose Side Is He On? (NE-02)" (the campaign committees come up with catchy titles, huh?). See it here:

This is nearly the exact same ad they ran earlier regarding Terry and Social Security. 

Of course it's also funny that Camp Esch is screaming that the NRCC is going back seven years to look at Esch's DUI, but it's OK to go back four years to come up with a Terry position on Social Security?What, Terry hasn't said anything on that issue since 2004? Well, we know that he has.

The ad says that Terry "supports privatizing Social Security", which he does not.

If you want to get a bead on what Terry is proposing in the SS discussion, listen to him on Todd n' Tyler from a couple days ago by clicking here. If Tn'T can understand and agree with it, it must not be all bad, right? From "Joe The Plumber" to "Todd the DJ"...

Of course our main problem with this is just the pure un-creativity of the DCCC. Another SS ad, with the stock ticker flying by? Was one of the interns, who only has one idea, put in charge of this campaign? Come on DCCC! You can do better than that! Otherwise just throw out the old LBJ "Daisy Girl" ad and be done with it...

***

And hey with all the new controversy about who should take down what ad in the 2nd District, we have to comment on what the candidates are saying.

First you've got Lee Terry saying that the NRCC's ad on Esch's DUI is "not fair". Well, we are here to disagree with you Congressman. What, specifically, isn't "fair" about it? 

This was an issue that Esch hid back in 2006 and never addressed. Esch is running to be one of a select few to vote on the laws for the country. The public deserves to know his background. There are few ways, other than TV ads to do that.

But then there was Esch's response, when confronted about his ad saying Terry "voted against Veterans". Esch said that his campaign "researched it". Well, if they had actually researched it, they would have noted that on the actual bill that addressed Veterans care, Terry voted for it.

This must be the same research staff that couldn't explain to Esch the difference between a bill and a resolution. Jim may want to look into the vetting process in the HR department at Esch for Congress...

LT-TV: Farmer Esch

We barely got out of the chute on the NRCC's ad (below), when the Lee Terry campaign put up their latest ad.

It is untitled, but we'll call it, "Farmer Esch". Take a look here:



We were waiting for this one.

We were pretty shocked to find out that Jim Esch makes most of his money by owning Colorado farm land and reaps thousands of taxpayer dollars each year from the CRP, by NOT farming.

This is why Jim Esch can be unemployed, yet own a brand new apartment above The Slowdown in NoDo.

As many Dems can tell you, it pays (well!) to not be a farmer.

NRCC-TV: Judgment on Esch

Here is the one everyone is talking about.

The National Republican Congressional Committee's new ad on Jim Esch entitled, "Jim Esch Has a History of Bad Judgment".
Take a look.

For those of you who don't want to click, here is the text:

Jim Esch has a history of bad judgment.

Esch used bad judgment when he endangered our families by driving under the influence of alcohol, at over twice the legal limit. (Sound of sirens in background.)

And now Esch's bad judgment threatens our sick economy. (Sound of beeping heart monitor in the background.)

Esch wants to raise Social Security taxes.

And raise payroll taxes as our familes are struggling to make ends meet.

Jim Esch's bad judgment.

It's not only chronic, it's dangerous. (Sound of heart monitor flatlining in background.)

The NRCC is spending approximately $485,000 in the 2nd District, in response t

o the DCCC spending somewhere between $450,000 and $521,000 for Esch.

And the NRCC has decided to come in with both barrels blazing.

No doubt the NRCC sees Esch's DUI as something voters should know. Now you, reader of Leavenworth Street, are familiar with this part of Esch's life because you read the blogs and the paper. But without this ad, many would not. The NRCC wants to be sure this portion of Esch's career is planted in the voters' heads.

Does this mean the NRCC thinks this race is close? Whether this ad indicates it or not, we know that they DO think this race is close. Then again, they are also viewing this from 2000 miles away in Washington. We 

think that while this race may be closer than 2006, it is not as 

close as those in DC think.

In any case be ready for more ads, from both sides, to come fast and furious.

(Of course what the NRCC should have pointed out is that the water bottle Jim is holding cost his campaign $6,500. Now THAT's bad judgment...)

JE-TV: Crossing his arms with authority

The latest Jim Esch for Congress ad, entitled "Veterans".

Interesting spot. Here are the problems:

First, note once again that Esch does not know the difference between a House bill and a House concurrent resolution.

H. Con Res. 99 that Esch refers to was a Congressional concurrent resolution -- a "sense of the House" -- on the ENTIRE 2008 budget and and the ENTIRE 2009-2012 budgetary levels. And, by the way, this resolution never crosses the President's desk to sign.

Now, feel free to pick out just about ANYTHING else that government does to see if Terry voted "for" or "agin".

Or don't because presumably you're not an idiot and can figure out that that would make no sense and you would gain no info on this party-line vote.

But Jim figures you are an idiot and won't go look.  

And if you are wondering who Vets support, just look who it is they have supported in the past, and who groups such as the VFW are endorsing this year.

It ain't Jim Esch.

(It is Lee Terry)

***

And then on pure images in this ad, note Esch's pose at the end.

My Jim looks..."confrontational"? "serious"? "not gonna pay alot for that muffler"?...with his arms crossed.

We always get a kick out of Dems who like to stare at the camera, with a big ol' frown, showing you just how serious they are.

A few examples we've hung onto include these:

But in the end, Jim's pose really just reminds us that he is more like one of these guys.

(More on campaign ads coming soon!)

***

Just so you will remember that the campaign never ends: the new Hal Daub for Mayor website.

Kleeb lacks

Robynnn Tysver's must-read story in the OWH today finally gets to the nut of Scott Kleeb.

U.S. Senate race: Kleeb touts lack of baggage - OWH, 10/21/08.

(By the way, in the "Metro Evening" edition of the OWH, this front page article is entitled, "Kleeb: Life experience trumps time in politics".  Make of that what you will...)

It occurs in the third paragraph, after she describes Kleeb's extensive education. Here it is in full:

"His professional résumé is shorter."

Tysver actually does a nice job of spelling out that Kleeb's work experience isn't all that he has cracked it up to be.

We've heard and seen, since back in 2006, all about Kleeb's time ranch-handing. Here is the full description from the actual rancher, Michael McGinn:

"He worked here all of one summer, up into the fall and early winter. And then he worked part time for us another time or two. He was just a ranchhand, and he worked here probably a total of seven or eight months."

Seven or eight months??!!

From what we've been hearing, we were to understand that Kleeb was born on a hay bale and raised in a saddle.

But let's see, Kleeb worked on the ranch for a few months...than quit to run for Congress (and lost).

Then he got job as a history teacher, did that for two semesters...then quit to run for Senate (and well...).

Interesting, considering what the Kleeb camp's refrain has been on Mike Johann's career.

***

But the article doesn't just get to Kleeb's lack of experience, it also (finally) hits him on his positions:

"However, his tendency to speak in broad and ambiguous strokes leaves some of his listeners frustrated. For example, when he talks about health care, Kleeb never makes it clear whether he supports a universal health care plan like that envisioned by Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama."

Of course we have seen this before.

Note this from the North Platte Telegraph today:

"Kleeb didn't say whether or not he supported the recent federal $700 billion bailout of major lending institutions..."

But we can't blame the NPT for not knowing that Kleeb put out a release saying that he DOES support the bailout. They're just listening to him speak trying to nail him down.

Of course, you may recall Joe Jordan of KMTV trying to nail Kleeb down on whether he is Pro-Life or Pro-Choice -- an important question for a lot of voters.

Well again, it's sometimes best to avoid the candidate here, and go straight to the campaign. In this case, we got it from a student blogger who went down to the Kleeb camp's Lincoln office to do some volunteer canvassing for Kleeb. Here is what that student discovered:

"Anyway, I got there, talked to the guy in charge (he can't be older than 25), got a brief iniation into the art of canvassing (basically: if they ask about abortion, obfuscate and pretend you don't know that he's prochoice, 'cause that's political death in this state), and headed out into the strangely muggy mid-afternoon to knock doors." (Emphasis added)

So we are glad we finally got that one squared away. Maybe Joe Jordan can call Scott back.

***

Finally, we are getting realllllly tired of this line from Kleeb:

"He believes his time in the classroom and his role as a young father who carries both a mortgage and student loan debt outweigh the credentials of a career politician. 

'There is the experience of living the life of people you want to represent,' Kleeb said."

Yeah, we get it Scott, you've got a new baby. Great. We are real happy for you. Bought a house did you? Neat.

But would you please stop pretending that is some sort of original thing that means you should be elected to the United States Senate.

No one believes it and it makes your experience sound (even more) shallow than it already is.

OWH endorses Johanns, Terry

The Omaha World Herald endorsed Mike Johanns for Senate and Lee Terry for Congress in their editorial section on Sunday.

Some bites:

The right leader
Electing Mike Johanns senator would continue proud tradition for Nebraska.

Exon, Kerrey, Nelson, Hagel — all are names highly regarded for conscientious public service that reflected well on their state.

If elected as Nebraska's newest U.S. senator, Mike Johanns would fit right in with the Nebraska tradition of impressive service.

Johanns had already demonstrated competence as mayor of Lincoln and governor of Nebraska, compiling a record that was unquestionably conservative. During the tight budgetary times of 2001-03, he made clear his determination that the state government must maintain fiscal discipline. As a World-Herald news story stated in December 2004, "he managed a budget crisis of historic proportions."

At the same time, he showed statewide vision. His administration helped develop strategic policy to address Nebraska's water needs. Johanns pushed for needed community- based reform of Nebraska's behavioral health system.

If elected, Johanns — a Republican — would enter the Senate at a time of what is likely to be an extraordinary electoral surge by congressional Democrats. But that is all the more reason to elect a commonsense conservative like Johanns, whose sound judgment — complemented by his even temperament— could help keep the Senate pendulum from swinging too far to the left in its policy decisions.

And for Terry:

Rep. Lee Terry is a conscientious lawmaker. He deserves re-election.

It is ironic that this congressman is mocked so snidely by some in his district, given the reality that he has pursued a serious-minded, unegotistical approach to his public service.

This year, the congressman is facing an honorable and well-spoken challenger. Voters are rightly sizing up the two contenders in what it appears to be a tight race.

It's hard to get a clear handle on what the challenger actually seeks to do in a lot of cases, though. Nuanced positions can be a reflection of a thoughtful person. But too much nuance can mean too much vagueness. Voters deserve more.

In this contest, the incumbent congressman has demonstrated commendable devotion to his district, state and nation. He deserves the opportunity to continue his work in Washington, where he would build on his seniority.

This congressman is Rep. Lee Terry of Omaha, and he deserves reelection.

So despite all of this good news, we still think that it is most likely the Scott Kleeb and Jim Esch will lose on Election Day. But after the OWH's endorsements, it may give them hope...

***

Nebraska Governor Dave Heineman received the the fourth highest rating among governors in the Cato Institute's 2008 Fiscal Policy Report Card on America’s Governors.  (h/t Red State Eclectic.).  In part...

Governor Heineman is an outstanding tax cutter. In 2006, he proposed substantial cuts to personal income tax rates, and the legislature agreed to a compromise that raised income tax brackets. In 2007, Heineman signed into law another array of tax cuts including further income tax cuts and a repeal of the estate tax. He has also supported property tax relief.

MJTV: Tough Decisions

New Mike Johanns ad, entitled "Tough Decisions".

See it here:

Good, solid, direct to the camera spot.  Fatherly, reassuring tone.

This is the kind of stuff people are looking for when the term "Nebraska values" is used -- saving up a nest-egg for bad times.

This ad will stand out, particularly in the Omaha market, for its low tone, simplicity and directness.

(Which is all well and good, but what we wouldn't give for just one animated turkey-shooting ad...)

Is Esch push polling?

In an article in the LJS today, Micah Mertes quotes yours truly regarding information found on blogs. The quote reads:

But more information is a good thing, Street Sweeper says, so long as readers know “to rarely believe the first thing they read.”

With that in mind, we present to you a "poll" found on a Democrat blog, Swing State Project:

Nebraska, 2nd District

Lee Terry: 47%
Jim Esch: 46%
Undecided: 7%

John McCain: 48%
Barack Obama: 44%
Undecided: 8%

Now, a few things to note here. First, why exactly is Swing State holding the cards on a poll done by a Washington outfit? Well, we can only assume that the Esch camp (or possibly the DCCC) commissioned the poll and needed someone "independent" to break the news.

So why not send it directly to the Omaha World Herald, or Joe Jordan at KMTV?

Well, that would be because the new organization would ask for the full crosstabs to see what questions were actually asked.

Note that Swing State gives out "partial crosstabs", and references some ethnic makeup statistics that the reader doesn't actually get to see.

So what does this tell us? That this is more than likely a push-poll.

Something along the lines of, "If I told you that Jim Esch once rescued puppies from a burning outhouse and that Lee Terry stole his gold plated socks from your grandmother, who would you be more likely to vote for?"

Further evidence? Remember back in July when LJS columnist Don Walton, who is willing to print rumors, talked about an Esch poll? Same situation, where no one was willing to actually come forward with the poll. But now of course, they cite that poll for their trendlines, when that more than likely was based on the same push questions.

**UPDATE 4pm Friday**

We have info from poll-ees that this is exactly what happened, and this was most likely a "push poll".

Like we said above, we believe more information is better than less information. However, we also noted that if a source can't tell you where that information came from, it is not worth your time.

Consider that while viewing this latest "poll".

***

FEC reports were submitted on Wednesday, and you probably saw most of the information.

In the 2nd District race that seems to garner our attention, Lee Terry out raised Jim Esch for the quarter by about $8,000.

Of course the irony in that is that Esch also paid himself $8,000 from the funds raised.

Then again, Esch once again raised around $40,000 from people with the last name of "Esch", so it's all moving from the back pocket to the front pocket to the shirt pocket.

But seeing as we are seventeen days out, the main number to look at is Cash on Hand. Here Terry, with over $500K, nearly doubles Esch.

The Esch folks will counter that that number doesn't mean as much considering the DCCC made a half million dollar ad buy for Esch a few days ago.

Which may be true, unless the NRCC comes in for Terry. Which we will keep our eyes peeled for...

***

In their debate last night, Esch chastised Terry for not being more like Esch's apparent hero, Republican Congressman Adam Putnam. Putnam, a 34 year old rep who has been in the House for seven years is part of the Republican leadership.

Esch says that if he gets elected, HE'LL be part of the leadership! Mmm hmm. Yup we're sure a pro-life Democrat freshman with no prior legislative (or any other kind of ) experience will be right there next to Speaker Pelosi (whose positions Esch continually criticizes).

See, Putnam became buds with former Speaker Hastert to get on the leadership path. That and he also had spent five years in the Florida Legislature. Jim might want to consider getting himself elected to something (or, you know, having a job) before he runs for Speaker just yet.

***

Mike Johanns and Scott Kleeb battled it out for the last time in Grand Island last night.

Kleeb took a shot at Johanns, saying that he must support a Bush position because Johanns considered talking about it in Lincoln...but didn't.

Johanns response: Kleeb might have hurt his back leg on that, because "that's the biggest stretch I have ever heard."

(snort)

Question: Why does Kleeb think it's OK to take shots at Johanns at the debates, or in interviews, but not run a TV spot criticizing Johanns? What's the difference?

Is Kleeb interested in winning, or is this just another vanity run for him? We are curious.

"I'll tell ya who won..."

That logo can only mean one thing:
Presidential Debate comment time!

To liven things up, start all comments with,

"I'll tell ya who won..."

Why Lee Terry will win

The Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee has finally air-dropped into Nebraska on behalf of Jim Esch.
See their first negative ad here:



The DCCC's ad-buy looks like this:
$521,000 total for three weeks.
That is broken down as $479,000 on broadcast, $42,000 on cable.

As far as the spot itself goes, it is on the busy (and green) side, and frankly Esch's ad which addressed the exact same issue was better produced.

Of course Lee Terry already has a response ad on this issue playing now...
And as we fleshed it out further here, the ad is factually incorrect about Terry's position on this issue.

***

As we figured, the first ad by the DCCC is a negative ad. Also note that Jim Esch has not run any positive ads introducing himself, his experience, what he can offer to Nebraska. He is simply the empty suit with a "D" next to his name, hoping he can slide in with The One.

And because of Obama's campaign efforts in Omaha, the chattering politicos in Washington are worried about Terry's race. Heck, Lee is worried about his race. But then, Lee was also sweating when he won by nearly 10%, so maybe the candidate isn't the best judge.

***

But The Politico found the DC Republicans worried about the Terry-Esch race.

Of course as Exhibit A they submit the "Obama-Terry voter" ad that was in The Reader:

"Terry just sent voters a piece of mail with a testimonial from a woman who plans to split her vote between the Republican congressman and the Democratic presidential contender — a sure sign that the GOP brand is lagging along with the economy and McCain’s own prospects for the White House."

Except that that is wrong. As we noted, this was NOT mailed out. It was in a weekly arts and entertainment mag. And frankly, it is no different than when Democrat Jones runs a "Republicans for Jones" ad. But let's not let rational thinking get in the way.

Of course what really has the Terry folks and their NRCC brethren uptight is the money that the DCCC is sending in, along with the Obama efforts.

***

But let us take a closer look at all that:

Just like the enthusiasm over Tony Raimondo's chances in the Dem primary showed, irrational exuberance can sometimes overshadow sane thinking.

Many DC politico types (like those at The Politico) seem to think that Lee Terry's campaign is in trouble against Jim Esch.
They are being driven to the cliffs by all the press that Obama is "competing" in Omaha.

But as has been shown in many other red states around the country, Obama is wont to overextend himself.
While many think that voter drives and pouring cash into TV ads will get Obama over the top -- and thus let Jim Esch bask in Obama's glow -- they are wrong.

Why? Well because:

• McCain's poll number have been steady. Up by 13% in the latest.
• Terry's poll numbers have been steady. Up by 10% in the latest.
• Voter registration number have been steady. Nearly the same as in 2004.
• Republican voter enthusiasm, as evidenced by Palin's visit, is high. Long lines to get in with less than 24 hours notice.
• Turnout will be huge for all parties. In this contentious Presidential year.
• Terry has plenty of cash to compete. Even if the DCCC adds theirs in.
• Terry will not be out-spent. Even if the DCCC comes in, and if it's close, expect the NRCC to add theirs.
• Terry has already had the opportunity to define Jim Esch. And has done so since August, and will continue to do so.
• The election is only three weeks away -- how Terry defines him will be in the voters' minds. Too short a time for Esch to turn it around.
• Esch does not have some sort of super resume or campaign juggernaut that will overcome his polling numbers. Unlike Hagel in 1996.
• If the Dems really felt that he would pull it out, they would have supported Esch much sooner than three weeks out. And they haven't.

Unless some game-changing event occurs that allows Obama to have a tremendous surge in the 2nd District, and thus suppress GOP and Terry supporter turnout, this race is still Terry's.

But show us a candidate who is sits on his laurels with a 10 point lead and we'll show you a former Congressman. The Terry campaign will be fighting hard in what may well be a Democrat year. And NRCC input may be necessary to shore things up.

But let's not get crazy now.

Jim Esch's Excellent Adventure

First, in case you missed the poll announced Friday at 4pm for Nebraska's 2nd District, here it is again, courtesy of the Daily Kos's Research 2000:

Lee Terry: 49%
Jim Esch: 39%

(just NE-2)
John McCain: 53%
Barack Obama: 40%

(just NE-2)
Mike Johanns: 54%
Scott Kleeb: 39%

***

And did everyone read the OWH's Sunday summaries of the careers of 2nd Congressional District candidates Congressman Lee Terry and Jim Esch?

We learned that Esch quit his job with the Omaha Chamber of Commerce to run for Congress in 2006. OK. But after he lost that race by 9% -- and admittedly had no plans to run again until after the 2008 Spring Dem Caucuses -- what did he do?

Well...
Esch wandered to Kansas. New York. Colorado. Argentina. Thought about going to Belize.
Alas, after all this "research", he was unsuccessful in finding a "tangible project" with which to "build his fortune".

But why would Jim need travel to Bueno Aires, when Uncle Sucker is paying him to do nothin' right here?
Wha-huh, you say?

You see Jim's "James Esch Farms, Inc." owns about 1,800 acres of land in Colorado. And you and your pals in the federal government pay Jim Esch about $34,000 per year NOT to be a farmer on that land.
So really, if Farmer Jim can get paid to be the Un-Farmer, why would he bother with a real job?

But really, you have got to love Esch's "business" plan: "You never know when you're going to stumble across an idea that actually works."

There has to be a slogan in there, right? "Esch: Stumbling across America, for you."

***

Back on the campaign front, Lee Terry has released a new spot. See it here:



This ad basically calls out Esch's last ad regarding Terry's position on Social Security.

Esch's and the other Dem line on this is that they suggest that "privatization" means that the Social Security Trust fund administrators would dump funds right into the stock market.

Terry, however, has never supported that stance.

Instead, Terry has suggested giving younger workers the option of diverting a percent or two of their own payroll tax into funds that would seek higher returns through investing in index funds or market baskets of stocks, mutual funds.

The individual would not be able to trade stocks or change funds except for designated "open season" times.

While Terry is willing to have a national dialogue on this, Esch apparently is not.

***

And finally, this print ad that Lee Terry ran in Omaha's "The Reader" magazine has pulled lots of press over the weekend (New York Times, ABC News, The Politico).

(Yeah, that's right, we have the high-res good stuff. None of that copy of a copy around here...)

Melanie here is an actual person (as opposed to just an actor or model), who happens to be a barista at an Omaha coffee shop.

The national press seems to be making a big deal about an ad that is essentially just a riff on the "Democrats for Terry" concept -- that every campaign does. Not sure why that's special here.

Not to mention, this wasn't in the Omaha World Herald. And it wasn't a mailer either. It's in an arts and entertainment magazine that one could argue has as its base, Obama supporters.

As Terry's campaign manager put it, Terry has "always relied on a fragile, cross-party coalition, making swing voters and more conservative Democrats vital every election year."

Of course in just a few weeks, we will see just how fragile Terry's 10 point and McCain's 13 point polling advantages really are.

** Update at 10:00 AM Monday**

The above quote from Terry campaign manager David Boomer was taken from a New York Times story. However, that version of the NYT story is no longer on their site, nor is it cached on Google. However, we did find the old story uploaded in another location, here.

The full quote in the NYT said:

"Terry's campaign manager, David Boomer, said in an interview that the congressman had always relied on a fragile, cross-party coalition, making swing voters and more conservative Democrats vital every election year."

Boomer emailed Leavenworth Street to note that he never said that. As noted, the new version of the NYT story does not contain a quote from Boomer.

Boomer says that what he told the NYT was:

"1) Terry historically wins 20% of the D vote. These are partisan Dems who do cut for him.

2) Our ad was designed to show D and I voters that a real person is voting for Obama and Terry.—they can do that also. Melanie is a left of center person—but, she likes Terry because he works hard and is honest."

So there ya go.

(The internets kick ass...)

NEW Poll: Terry up by 10%

The Daily Kos's pollster, Research 2000 has results on the Nebraska 2nd Congressional District.

The results:

Lee Terry: 49%

Jim Esch: 39%
Undecided: 10%

And Presidential:

John McCain: 53%
Barack Obama: 40%
Undecided: 4%

And, just for the 2nd District, of this statewide Senate race:

Mike Johanns: 54%
Scott Kleeb: 39%
Undecided: 7%

The polling took place October 6-8, 2008.
400 likely voters.

Note that these results came down at 4pm on Friday. Not exactly the time you'd crow about them, if you were happy.

You can view and examine the full crosstabs here.

KleebTV - Hair today, gone tomorrow

Scott Kleeb has a new ad out called, "Game".  See it here:

So, if you are like us, you had the same reaction.

No, not that it's another banal ad from Kleeb touting "change".

Or that he steals another 30 seconds of your life, saying nothing.
Or that he really overworks the whole head-bobs and eye-squints.

No, what we noticed is that Kleeb has changed his hairstyle -- again.
The guy has had more hair-doo's, and colors, than Hillary Clinton!

Let's take a look at the Kleeb hair retrospective:

1) You have his post Yalie, gelled behind the ears

2) Runnin' for Congress, butt-head down the middle part

3) Some serious gelled-up TV look

4) Running for Senate, with the dry, mussed up, no part look

5) The gray dry-look -- taken on October 4, 2008

6) The harsh left-part, chestnut brown look from his latest ad

And then you might say, "Wait a minute. What's with the dual hair-colors?"
Let's view Kleeb at the opening of the Obama office on September 10, 2008, and New Kleeb from his ad:

Hmmmmm. Kleeb seems to be having a "Just For Men" moment.
Either that, or he has been visiting Ben Nelson's barber.

***

As you've no doubt seen, the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is pouring nearly a half-million dollars into Omaha TV to talk you into giving Jim Esch a job.

The ads are scheduled to start on Tuesday. We have a feeling the Lee Terry campaign won't be sitting back.

***

The Dems have been pushing their voter registration goals more, this time at the University of Nebraska, Lincoln.

Obama front group, "Nebraska Matters" asked none other than the Right Wing Professor himself, Gerard Harbison if they could use his classroom to spread the Obama love for voter registration, with the promise that "we do not support any candidate or party".

Except that the Nebraska Matters "About Us" page spells out who they support. And then there was that little prevaricating session with the OWH...

***

A couple of website shout-outs:

One, the Net Nebraska Campaign Connection that has a bunch of videos and stuff on the races.

And a new blog out of Wayne called Nebraska Republican Rambling.

Give 'em a click.