Billboard Envy

And the 2008 2nd District House race has its first advertisement of the season.

Recently re-elected (and more-than-likely House ’08 candidate) Rep Lee Terry has put up seventeen billboards around the District, thanking voters for not chucking him, like so many other voters around the country – and as nearby as Iowa and Kansas – did to his colleagues.

According to the OWH, Terry spent around $9,000 on the billboards.
(Grateful Lee Terry gives his voters a billboard hug – OWH – 11/29/06.)

So the OWH followed up with already announced House ’08 candidate, and ’06 loser, Jim Esch. Esch stated his “intrigue” at the billboards and said that, Gosh, he wished HE had nine grand to blow on lots of billboards, and that “Maybe next time, I will.”

OK, Jim, you will…what? Have $9K left over after the campaign to spend on thank-you signs?

That’s a goal, I guess…

Well Jim, here’s a question: You still have your $40,000 web-site up and running. What’s THAT costing you per month? Of course maybe if you’d invested in a normal website, you could have afforded those post-campaign thank-you boards. (And we won’t even get into the $30K to your “consultant” for “reimbursement for various expenses”. Has the FEC called on that description yet?)

Thanks

On this Thanksgiving, Leavenworth Street would like to say thank you to all our loyal readers -- even the ones we disagree with and think should be required to repeat the 3rd grade...again.

We hope you keep coming back and we look forward to continuing to talk about that thing we dig the most, Nebraska politics.

Now go fall into the tryptophan coma!

Achy Breaky Campaign

After our last post, which we were afraid would be fairly misinterpreted, we felt it necessary to follow up on a few thoughts we had – particularly in light of comments we have already received (that you can read here).

The first, and main point, is about the negative ads.

People are jumping on the “negative” ads by Ricketts for the blame for his loss. This is entirely misplaced. It could well be argued that were it not for the sheer number of negative ads, Ricketts would not have lost as badly as he did. But had Ricketts merely had a light number of negative ads, or gone completely positive, with the message that he ran, HE WOULD NOT HAVE WON.

Oh sure, he could have hit a Scott Kleeb or Jim Esch forty-five percent, and had a “respectable” showing. And that’s fine if your goal is to have a respectable showing – especially if you just want to set yourself up for “next time”. But Ricketts wasn’t running to come in second -- to be the sacrificial lamb for the Republicans. His goal was to beat Ben Nelson. And that wasn’t going to happen without negative ads. And with Nelson’s high positive numbers, particularly among Republicans, he needed to bring Nellie down. Ricketts had to swing for the fences. And sometimes when you do that you strike out bad.

Now from here, we reiterate our position that Ricketts main problem was that he didn’t establish himself and didn’t have a message or theme to deliver. Pete Ricketts had much more to offer, more of a story to tell and should have had a better theme than just “I’m a Republican, and he’s not.” But you wouldn’t know it from the ads his team put together. And because of this, his negative ads had an even harsher ring, where people were asking, “Who IS this guy doing the bashing?” Add to that Nelson’s pounding theme of “Wall Street Pete” and Ricketts was in a hole he would never climb out of.

But without an effective (or ANY) message and theme, negative ads could not work.

Now, let’s also raise the point of that theme of Nelson’s – “Wall Street Pete”. So we’re to think that Nebraskans hate negative campaigning? Well Nelson came out with THE negative theme right out of the freaking blocks! The day after the primary! Nelson wasn’t selling, “I’m a great guy.” “I vote conservatively.” It was, “This guy’s an a-hole who wants to give your money to corporations.” This was, of course, a load of crap.

So let’s be clear: Nelson, who won this race by twenty-seven points, didn’t raise the debate, didn’t run on the “the issues”, and brought it down to class-baiting politics (remember that it was Nelson who initiated the whole “property tax” garbage). And he won big. Well that’s fine. He had a catchy theme, “Wall Street Pete.” You know who else had something catchy? Billy Ray Cyrus. The mulleted one. See if you can get “Achy Breaky Heart” out of your head for the next hour. Well “Wall Street Pete” was the “Achy Breaky Heart” of this campaign: It rocketed Nelson to number one. But let’s not pretend he created a work of art.

Finally, we’d like to make a point about the thwacking Jessica Moenning is taking now that the campaign is over. We don’t have a lot of inside info (at this point – and that could/should change) about her real position in the campaign. But we do know this: the campaign theme and message were already set by the time she came in after the primary. And we strongly doubt that she had the influence, or could have exercised any influence, to change the message that was already decided upon by Chuck Hagel, and Lou Ann Linehan, and Doug McAuliffe and moreover Pete Ricketts (who had to be mainly listening to the first three). Moenning was handpicked by Linehan and as campaign manager was going to be chief at mail and signs and GOTV and money and the nuts and bolts of the campaign – and she may very well deserve criticism for her job doing that stuff. But we strongly doubt she was drafting the campaign theme or the ads that went on the air.

Now that we’ve gotten much of that off our chest, feel free to weigh in.

No Message? No Theme? No Dice.

Blam! I don't care, I still love this commercial...

KETV has a story about some post-election analysis being done via the UNO Communications Dept. Now we'll assume that much more was discussed, but Channel 7's headline (on their website) is "Panel Says Negative Ads May Have Cost Ricketts Election".

Well now.

Let's get a few things out of the way:
The turkey ad did NOT turn the election for Ben Nelson.
(Though ask 10 people to name a "negative" ad from this election and all 10 will name that one.)

The fact that the turkey ad and any number of others ran non-stop did NOT turn the election for Ben Nelson either. Heck, Nelson spent $7.5 million himself. Ya think that was all for stickers and yard-signs? Nellie had a raft of negatives ads over the airwaves as well.

And it's not that Ricketts didn't have a strong enough resume either. You can certainly argue that he didn't, but candidates with much much less than Pete Ricketts have succeeded.

Here was the problem with the Ricketts' strategy, in a nutshell:

What was the Ricketts campaign theme?
No answer?

Ok, what, in a sentence, was the reason Ricketts gave for not-re-electing Ben Nelson?
(Beyond "Ben is a Democrat, I'm not.")
Still silent?

What was the Ricketts message for sending Pete to DC?
(And don't give me the "Nebraska values" thing either.)
We're hearing crickets.

That's because there WAS NO THEME to the Ricketts campaign.

You wanna know Nelson's? That's easy. He said it the DAY AFTER the primary:
Wall Street Pete.
Totally moronic. Insipid. Sophomoric. False.
But catchy? Yup.

And even more than that, Nelson POUNDED Ricketts with it. So that even if you didn't believe it, you at least knew what Nelson's message was. And you repeat it enough times, people will begin to believe it.

So there were a million (or was it twenty million?) other reasons why Nelson won / Ricketts lost. But the biggest problem for the Ricketts campaign was that they never established a theme/message for why-elect-Pete, why-fire-Nelson.

One good point that was finally reiterated by the McCook Daily Gazette, was that the negative ads didn’t work, because Ricketts didn’t have the credentials enough to attack someone who already had a strong standing in the state. And while true, this only addresses the negative aspects of the campaign. The problem was there never was a message that defined Ricketts’ campaign.

Of course there were lots of other problems as well that we won't get into now (maybe later). And we're sure the Dems are giddy about this even being discussed (though a look at the NDP message board the day after the election showed that they are as happy and united as a Pelosi-Hoyer-Murtha car-pool).

And we're not even saying that had Ricketts had a message, he would have won. But we are saying that without that message, pushed by the Hagel-Linehan-Doug McAuliffe Team, Ricketts never even got out of the gate.

(Oh, and Nancy Hultquist, people stopped asking "Where's the Beef?" in the 80's…)

Random Separated at Birth

We'll have another post up for Friday, but in the mean time, here's a Separated at Birth suggested by ptg at the Plains Feeder.

David Kramer and Hugo Chavez

(no political insinuations intended)

The 2008 Senate Race!

Welcome to the 2008 Political Season!
Too early, you say?
Not if you plan to run for office in 2008!
So then, who WILL (or may, or should) run in 2008?
Well, Leavenworth Street takes a look at who the players are for the 2008 Senate seat.

Republicans

Chuck Hagel
This is Hagel’s seat as we speak. He may run for President, he may not. But if he does run for Prez, he may still try to keep his Senate seat (at least we’re pretty sure this is allowed in Nebraska -- feel free to weigh in on this, as we don’t feel like doing the research at the moment). Now Hagel’s support in Republican circles in Nebraska is waning. Many are unhappy with the way he hasn’t supported the President. Dems love this and many love him for it. But they won’t be voting in this primary.

Mike Johanns
Many felt that the popular former Governor and present Secretary of Agriculture could have been the one to knock off Ben Nelson had he desired to run. And many feel that if Hagel drops out, this is Johanns seat for the taking, if he wants it. It is likely that if he decided to get in, no one else would bother him in a primary. But the longer he would wait to make a decision, the more likely others would jump in. However many believe that Johanns doesn’t have the interest for another combative statewide election. But he’ll be done with President Bush in January 2009 in any case, so he’d be looking for something to do. What that is will keep everyone interested.

Jon Bruning
So the word is that whether Hagel tries to keep his seat, or not, Bruning is going to challenge in the GOP primary. This would really set up an interesting fight, but just because Hagel has angered the base, doesn’t mean Bruning would waltz in. Bruning has soured many with his seemingly over-eager career plans. He reportedly has poor relationships with both Hagel and Governor, and new political gorilla, Dave Heineman. He has made it clear that he is in for 2008 (though what he would do if Johanns jumped in is unknown) and every move he makes from here on out will be calculated towards that goal.

Pete Ricketts
We don’t know what Ricketts aspirations are after the thumping he took at the hands of Earl Benjamin Nelson. One would think that GOP voters would be leery at giving him another shot with the nomination after the showing he had. There have been suggestions that if the 2nd District House seat opened up he could be interested. On thing is obvious: he wouldn’t run the same kind of campaign as he did against Nelson. And we all know that he still has the cash to decide how that campaign would be run.

Lee Terry
Many have suggested that Terry has been setting himself up for a Senate run since he got his House seat. Others suggest that Terry is comfortable in the House and would rather build up his seniority there than try to make the Senate gambit. Since it’s all about seniority in the House, it wouldn’t be a bad move for Terry, and it would benefit the state if he chose to do so as well. But Terry has also been in the majority during his entire stay there, and being on the other end of the stick may sour him just enough to reach for the brass ring in the Senate. Also, others suggest that Terry has a few conservative credentials that need shaping up (tort reform being one) before he could break out of a crowded GOP primary field. And finally there’s, of course, the fact that Terry has never run statewide and may have a more difficult time getting footing west of Omaha. We guess that it will be a little while before Terry makes his decision here.

Don Stenberg
Some said that the day after he lost to Pete Ricketts, Don Stenberg was gearing up for the 2008 primary. All we can say is, Good Luck Don. Let us know if you’re going to debate this time.

David Kramer
Many have said that it would have been great if Dave Kramer had had Pete Ricketts money to go up against Ben Nelson this time around. Of course, this is like the second string quarterback who is always more popular than the first stringer who is having problems. Kramer surely benefited from the primary run where he was able to get his name out amongst the GOP crowd – and his stint as MC at the Bush event in Grand Island left many finding him a more likable guy. If this is a battle between Bruning and Kramer, it would be interesting to see who the party apparatus would back. But without an elected office, Kramer will have to find a way to stay in the public eye for at least the next year to build up his credentials beyond party-chair and attorney.

Rick Sheehy
The Lieutenant Governor and former Hastings Mayor could have a bright political future in Nebraska, but honestly we have no idea, and doubt he’d bet it all on a Senate run this time. But who knows? We’re open to more info here.

Hal Daub
We doubt Daub will take another crack at the Senate – it would be his third try after losing to Dave Karnes and Jim Exon. Daub is still considered the heart of the Reagan Republicans in Nebraska. But as everyone knows, he doesn’t always have the smoothest political style, and it cost him the Omaha Mayor’s job. As the outstanding and effective Omaha Mayor, Daub would probably be the same in the Senate. But alas, he’d have to get elected first, and that has shown to be a problem.

One interesting factor would be if Hagel decided to run for President or something else came up, and he decided to quit his seat before it was up. Then Dave Heineman would get to appoint someone to the seat. While were not sure if this is likely at all, it’s always a fun parlor guessing game. Who would it be? We’d say Daub, for his patriarch of the party status, and the fact that Heineman was his Chief of Staff in the House. Kramer? Maybe if he wanted to give him a head start. Sheehy? If he wanted to give him a huge jump.

By the way, we're leaving Jeff Fortenberry's name off here because, while we feel he has a particularly bright future in Nebraska politics, we just don't figure he'll run for this spot. Same with Dave Heineman.

Democrats

Mike Fahey
The Omaha Mayor’s is the name most Dems like to throw out because, well, who else do they throw out? But many wonder if Fahey has the interest to take on such a bid. Heck, some wonder if he hasn’t just given the keys to the mayor’s office to CoS Paul Landow already.

Patrick Bourne-Maxine Moul-Scott Kleeb- Matt Connealy-Kate Witek or some other Dem who lost a race recently.
The Democrat's cabinet is otherwise bare. We’ll throw out State Senator Bourne’s name because he's expresed some interest in some higher office. House is more likely.

Did we miss anyone (I’m sure the Dems must have some other names we didn’t think of)? Put it up on the comments board and if it’s a glaring omission we’ll update the post.

Now start your campaigning!

Terry v. Esch: No, Not That Close

The day after the election on his campaign website, before he makes his declaration for 2008, Jim Esch starts with this line:

“Not a win, but I would not call it a loss.”

No, it’s a loss.
Esch lost by 10%. In political terms, that’s a solid loss.
It’s not in the 60’s, but make no mistake, it’s still a specific spanking.

Democrats and others woke up on Election Day-plus-one surprised that Terry didn’t win by more. (And we find it hilarious that Barry Rubin is now running for cover from intra-party criticism.) Now they’ve apparently convinced themselves that with just a little more punch, Esch could have pulled it out. (Esch pops onto Democratic party radar a day late – OWH – 11/9/06.)

Uh, no.

In our prediction, one of the only ones available anywhere in this race, we at Leavenworth Street made the guess that Terry would hit 63%. The mistake we made in our odds was that we ignored the fact that Terry all but ignored Esch.

Terry ran a full court positive campaign and acted as if he were running unopposed. He did not run any negative ads against Esch, and did not take the time to define Esch. Against a more formidable opponent this could have been costly for Terry. But had he gone negative (or comparative) he would have defined Esch any way he pleased, obliterating him and putting him in Michael Scott territory.

Esch ran a high school student council campaign, sporting t-shirts and tennis shoes to big-boy events. After a trip to Washington where he failed to gain any PAC support, he claimed he was PAC-free, and then failed to raise any significant money. He then wasted the tiny amount of campaign funds he collected on a vanity website that he and his drinking buddies could admire, instead of on effective TV, radio and print ads (not to mention polling). His bus-bench campaign made it look as if he were running an extended state legislature campaign, instead of trying to sit in John Cavanaugh’s old seat.

On Election Day, Esch admitted in his campaign blog that he thought of quitting the race before the general election, yet was talked out of it by his parents, as if he were tiring of his 3rd grade karate class after finding out it wasn’t all about chopping boards in half. This only magnifies what many knew: Esch would love to sit in an elected office, because, well, he wants to sit in an elected office. He hasn’t built a resume as a hard worker, or a dedicated public servant or a successful businessman. He’s built a resume of being the guy whose name was on a ballot when the Democrats got swept into office. Except he didn’t get to join them.

We’re sure that Esch is convinced that if he’d only put some effort into it, he could have made the race competitive. (And Jim, since you’ve already declared for 2008, will you also refuse PAC money again?) The reality is that a well-qualified candidate could have made this competitive. Esch was not that candidate, and simply declaring that he’s going to do it again in two years doesn’t make him any more qualified.

In this year of Democrat takeover, Lee Terry is fortunate he didn’t have a more qualified opponent.

But Jim Esch is lucky that Lee Terry didn’t knock his political block off.

Nelson Has No Coattails

Democrats have taken the House.
Democrats have likely taken the Senate.
Ben Nelson won with 63% of the vote.

And he didn’t bring a single Nebraska Democrat with him.

Not Scott Kleeb, the Dems’ golden boy who received national adulation from fawning Dems, and a late endorsement from Nelson.

Not Maxine Moul, Nelson’s former Lieutenant Governor who was supposed to be a fierce opponent for first term Congressman Jeff Fortenberry.

Heck, not even Kate Witek, a sitting office-holder and the new darling of the state Democrats.

Nope, Ben didn’t or couldn’t spread the wealth around for a single other statewide Democrat. (You could also argue that he couldn’t help recruit a decent candidate for Governor either.)

And by the way, for those Nebraskans who voted to keep the House of Representatives solidly Republican, and lost, note that Pete Rickett’s last ad pointed out what no one wanted to think about: In January, Ben Nelson’s vote will put Harry Reid, Ted Kennedy, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry and Chuck Schumer in charge of the Senate. Looks like the Bugaboos have come home to roost.

When Will We Know?

First, for your amusement, another Separated at Birth for the 2nd District;

Lee Terry and Omaha dentist Marty Matz (sent in by a Leavenworth Street reader)



Jim Esch and Hollywood actor, Aaron Eckhart




Election Results Tonight

ABCNews reports that there WILL be exit polls available for Nebraska races, when the polls close at 8 p.m. CST.

And according to the OWH:

The only (official) votes that will be available at 8 p.m. CST will be from voters who submitted early ballots to their local election offices - an estimated 16 percent of the total. And that's probably not going to be a representative sampling of the vote, according to (Secretary of State John) Gale.

Low-population counties in western Nebraska likely will finish their counting and report their totals within two hours of the polls closing (10 p.m. CST), Gale predicted.
But he said it could be 11 p.m. or later before Douglas, Sarpy, Lancaster and other big counties have tallied enough votes to declare winners.

Douglas County's Phipps said his office would release the early voting totals at 8 p.m. CST. He said he would report precinct votes completed thus far at 9 p.m. and at 9:45 p.m., to have some results available for the 10 o'clock television news shows. After that, he plans to report hourly until the count is completed.

"Normally we'd be done by 11 p.m. or 12," he said. "Now we'll be done at 1 a.m. or 2."

Scroll down for our previous posts today and check back to Leavenworth Street throughout Election Day for more updates!

Election Update: Robo-Call for you Sir?

First, another Separated at Birth for you.

Scott Kleeb and Ben Affleck


Adrian Smith and Will Ferrell (again)


Well news outta Nebraska’s Third District this morning is all about robo-calls ringing off the hook. (Prerecorded candidate calls irritating Kleeb supporters – GII- 11/07/06.)

As has been discussed on the message board here, 3rd-D Dems are claiming that they’ve received numerous Kleeb robo-calls, and that they’re so darned annoyed that they may not vote for Kleeb because of it.

So, who do the Kleeb people blame? Well, Karl Rove of course. Yes, they believe that the Republicans think it’s to their benefit to re-send Kleeb’s message out to people.

Now we’ve heard of lots of dirty tricks, but sending the candidate’s own message to his supporters would have to be the dopiest one ever concocted.

Could it, maybe, possibly, be a Democrat supporter who thinks the more Kleeb calls the better to his supporters? Hmm what a whacky, simple answer.

Naaaaah. Rove musta dun it…

Scroll down for our previous posts today and check back to Leavenworth Street throughout Election Day for more updates!

Vote Early, Vote Often

Well folks, on this Election Day 2006, news is often limited.
But we here at Leavenworth Street aim to keep you info-tained as best we can.

First, if you have any news that you haven’t heard on the radio, seen on TV or in the online news, please forward it here, and we will take a look to see if we can post.
(If you would like to email, you will be kept anonymous.)

San Diego...I mean Nebraska Election Day Weather
Scottsbluff - 74
Grand Island - 75
North Platte - 74
Norfolk - 74
Lincoln - 73
Omaha - 71

Who gets the advantage for this great weather?
The Dems, since the country-club Republicans will be trying to get in another round of golf?
Or the GOP, since the hippie Democrats will be trying to get in another round of frolf?
We’ll call it a wash.

Reverse Rain Effect
But we must also consider this: The "Reverse Rain Effect". We referred to this back in the primary, where bad weather means that farmers, who would ordinarily be in the fields, would instead be in town to vote. So with today’s sparkling skies statewide, does that mean those farmers are more likely to stay in the field? And who does this benefit?

REAL Negative Ads
OK, Nebraskans. You think this was a "negative" campaign season? Do you? Really?
Kids, you don't know what a NEGATIVE campaign is.
So, from Wisconsin, I give you...The Ron Kind ad.

Separated at Birth
Finally, throughout the day, we’ll be tossing you Separated at Births that either didn’t make our final cuts previously, or have been thrown to us by others.

This one was suggested to us by “Superwonk”. He first gave us

Legislature candidate, Brad Ashford and Ed Begley, Jr.



But then we looked at Ashford’s website, and thought this was even better.

Brad Ashford and Lou Holtz


Come back to Leavenworth Street often today, and please send us any news you have!

Ben Nelson is a Democrat (someone needed to say it)

After our analysis of the Senate race, we received a number of emails asking about the final Pete Ricketts ad that we referenced. So here is the link.

We think it’s the best one of the (large) bunch that Ricketts put out, so it’s good that he ended on a high note.

We’d note as well, that it essentially paraphrases what we suggested back in June.

It’s a solid message and the truth, for those who can handle it.

Nellie Still Nervous

As we hit the home-stretch with your Leavenworth Street Odds, we first give you the Separated at Birth for the Senate race:

Ben Nelson and Mike Dukakis

Pete Ricketts and Kevin Spacey

And now …

Ben Nelson (D) and Pete Ricketts (R)

Odds to win the U.S. Senate race

Nelson – 1:5
Ricketts – 4:1

Over/Under for Nelson: 55%
Odds Nelson goes over 60% -- 8:1

And Leavenworth Street’s analysis.

The game plan for Pete Ricketts was simple on paper:
Get Republicans to vote Republican.

In his uber-red state that Bush carried by 30+ points and carried every county, the math didn’t look that hard. But add Ben Nelson (DINO) to the equation, and a whole host of variables complicated things:

Nelson, the most conservative Democrat in the Senate, effectively staked out conservative positions on judicial nominees, immigration and national security. Ricketts had little room to attack from the right.

And Nelson went on the offensive the DAY AFTER the primary, with his “Wall Street Pete” tag. So while there was a perception that Ricketts went too negative too early, one could say that Ricketts was on his heels the whole time. Also, conventional campaign wisdom says you attack only after you’ve built a record of credibility. Ricketts may not have established himself enough in the early going in order for critical attacks to work.

In the primary, Ricketts was painted as a silver-spooned Omaha kid trying to buy the election. After the primary, Nelson kept up that barrage and Ricketts has not been able to bring himself out of that light.

In the battle on TV, Ricketts latest ads, with the giant letters, talking to the camera, have been effective, and his negative ads have undoubtedly driven Nelson’s negatives up.

Still, while many have written this race off , two recent developments may help Ricketts close the gap slightly:

1 – Kerry gaffe. While Kerry did not campaign in Nebraska, and is no where near Nelson politically, Kerry’s elitist jab at the military reminded everyone who the Democrats are. And like it or not, Ben Nelson is a member of Kerry’s party.

2 – The President’s visit. A raucous crowd of 7,000 watched President Bush deliver fiery remarks. This should stir up the base right before the election. Of note, Nelson and Scott Kleeb meekly stated that it’s good for the state for the POTUS to visit. What else can they say? The President’s visit was clearly an upshot for GOP candidates.

Will this be enough for Ricketts? Probably not. But the fact that Nelson keeps pounding away at Ricketts, instead of playing the elder statesman, means Nellie isn’t comfortable just yet. Nelson has the odds in this one, but not as high as many Dems think or hope.

How the West Will Be Won -- 3rd District Odds

First, as we’ve done all week, a Separated at Birth for the 3rd District candidates:

Adrian Smith and Will Ferrell


Scott Kleeb and Jake Gyllenhaal


And before we get to our Odds, a little overview of this race:

Many expected the race in this mostly Republican District to be a GOP slam dunk, considering the President’s past electoral success and outgoing Rep. Tom Osborne’s ginormous 80% election successes three times prior. (Even though many forget that then-Speaker of the Legislature Bill Barrett didn’t even hit 52% when he won Virginia Smith’s open seat.)

But after a GOP primary fractured party unity, and a much stronger than anticipated Democrat candidate rose up, it appears this race is drum-tight – mainly as evidenced by all the partisan money raining down on the district and President himself coming to town.

So without further ado, Leavenworth Street gives you…

Adrian Smith (R) and Scott Kleeb (D)

Odds on Winning the 3rd District House race:

Smith – 1:1
Kleeb – 3:1

Over/Under for Smith – 52%

Odds Smith breaks 55% -- 9:1

Our Analysis:

Scott Kleeb has raised plenty of money, come across as thoughtful on the issues, and has sold himself as the populist candidate - not to mention riled up the national Dems who can’t help but constantly mention his Marlboro-man mug. Still, when we handicap this race, some things jump out at us.

Ever since Scott Kleeb got in this race, Democrats in Nebraska and around the country have been acting like a bunch of thirteen year old girls at an N’Sync concert. But when those girls grow-up, they realize they’ve been screaming about Justin-freaking-Timberlake. Similarly, we believe the voters of the 3rd District will realize a few things about Scott Kleeb. Namely:

• He has never held a full-time job in his life. We don’t see HOW this can be ignored; part-time T.A., summer-time horse-rider, full time student. A gas station attendant has more real-life experience than Kleeb.


• He has been a life-long, party-partisan Democrat working for liberal candidates and causes. He worked to elect an ultra-liberal candidate out of Boulder, Colorado – someone the Berkeley, CA of the Rockies wouldn’t even nominate. He headed his campus Democrats in college – about as partisan as you can get. And Kleeb has stated that what motivated him to move to Nebraska to run for Congress was his depression after John Kerry failed to become President.


• Not only is he not from Nebraska – which we all know—he doesn’t even understand some of the basic feelings of Nebraskans. The guy said he was rooting for the Colorado Buffaloes when they play the Huskers for gawd’s sake! And he can root for whatever football team he likes, but if he’s that tone-deaf about one of the extra-curricular passions of the state, it’s clear he’ll never abandon his liberal social principals when it’s time to vote on real issues. (And by the way, enough of the indignation about his family being from Nebraska. His parents are. He’s not.)


• He has clearly staked out his liberal positions. Among others, he’s against repeal of the death tax. He’s for gay-civil-unions. He’s for keeping abortion legal. If these are positions you’re for, great, then Kleeb is your man. However, we have a feeling the majority of 3rd D voters don’t feel this way.

***
Adrian Smith has not nailed down the large GOP base. The fiercely fought primary may have fractured Republican unity. And when compared to the silver-tongued Kleeb, Smith can come off vanilla and party-line.

But in Adrian Smith, voters know what they’re getting. He’ll vote conservatively. Not sexy for you? How about lower taxes, less government and personal responsibility. The guy was born and raised in Gering, Nebraska, served on their city council and has a record in the legislature. His track record says he votes the sense of his district. It’s fairly certain he would vote that same way in Congress. Smith also owns a small business and works in real estate, which for some reason people have dismissed. Know what it’s like to get your own business up and running? Figure out the tax implications? Traverse all the government regulations? Promote it? Serve your customers? Adrian Smith has done this.

We believe 3rd District voters will look past the belt-buckles and feathered hair. And we don’t discount the party-registration when people actually climb into the voting booth. That’s why Leavenworth Street makes Adrian Smith the Odds on favorite for this race.

2nd District Odds!

Before we give you the Leavenworth Street Odds for the 2nd Congressional District race, here’s a little Separated at Birth for you on the candidates (this one wasn’t easy):

Lee Terry and Dan Aykroyd





Jim Esch and Josh Charles



And now…

Lee Terry (R) and Jim Esch (D)

Odds on Winning the 2nd District House race:

Lee Terry – 1:500
Jim Esch – 1000:1

Over/Under for Terry -- 63%

Odds Terry breaks 70% -- 50:1

Our analysis:

Lee Terry continues to the right things for the 2nd District and thus for re-election. One indication of his strength is that he drew nominal opposition this time around (again!). He’s right on all the issues and has done a good job in promoting Omaha area businesses every chance he gets. He has run a professional campaign and made no gaffes, or given voters a reason to kick him out.

While Jim Esch may be serious about his desire for elected office, he has done little to show he grasps what goes into a big-time campaign. His reliance on web-sites and paid-for placards around town fail to send a message other than that he is hip with the kids and can set you up with a great graphic artist. While he may want to run for another office some day, his poor allocation of resources (not to mention wearing a t-shirt in his TV ads) may also give future donors pause before tossing their money away.

Banking on Terry here would not be a gamble.

**Coming Soon!**
Friday - 3rd District Odds!
Weekend - Senate Odds!

As we’ve stated before, these Odds are not to be used for actual gambling. They can however, be used for pretend gambling, using chocolate coins and candy cigarettes. But just be sure you don’t pull out those candy cigarettes at a restaurant in Omaha. You don't want tolight up the phones at the 911 center.

Bet on Fortenberry

First a Separated at Birth for the 1st District Candidates!

Jeff Fortenberry and Omaha WOWT Meteorologist, Jeff Jensen (suggested by a Leavenworth Street reader)


Maxine Moul and the Church Lady


And now Leavenworth Street gives our Odds for the Nebraska 1st District House race between:
Jeff Fortenberry (R) and Maxine Moul (D)

Odds to win
Fortenberry -- 1:3
Moul -- 8:1

(for non-gamblers out there, this means, if you wanted to bet on Fortenberry, you’d have to wager $3 to win $1, and for Moul, if you’d bet $1, you’d win $8)

Over/under for Fortenberry: 56%

(this is our mark for what we think Fortenberry will hit, your wager would be higher or lower than that)

Our analysis:

Fortenberry hasn’t committed any blunders in his first term and has run a relatively smooth campaign. He has voted with the sense of the First District, with a reputation of being thoughtful on ag and foreign affairs issues in his service on these committees.

As for Moul, after her initial announcement, any fire the campaign had quickly went out. While raising substantial campaign funds (a big chunk coming from Emily’s list and unions), she seems to be on the wrong side of many conservative issues, unlike her DINO companion Ben Nelson. This won’t win her any points in the First.

We expected this race to be on the national radar as the winnable one for Nebraska House Dems. Instead it has disappeared from the screen, and Fortenberry should find the odds in his favor on Tuesday.

Coming..
Thursday: 2nd District Odds
Friday: 3rd District Odds (Presidentially interested!)
Weekend: Senate Odds

Once again, these odds are for recreational purposes only. Leavenworth Street does not suggest gambling using these odds. But we do support gambling in general. I mean, ever been to, say, a Vegas stag or stagette party with someone who doesn’t gamble, while everyone else does? Yeah, that person is a barrel of laughs. Just don’t blow it all at the boats, ok?